The Houston Texans are quickly becoming the Gonzaga Bulldogs of the AFC.
Much like Gonzaga’s famed basketball program, the Texans are the toast of a weak division which guarantees they’ll be dancing come tournament time. And just like the Bulldogs, Houston’s title hopes come crashing down when they run into real competition.
Year 3 under head coach DeMeco Ryans has loftier goals than winning another AFC South crown. If the Texans are going to finally break through the divisional round and challenge for the Super Bowl, the blueprint must be written in the regular season.
That means picking up wins over the league’s elite and not dropping games to bottom-tier teams – two areas Houston stunk at in 2024. The Texans were also duds against the spread, finishing 7-8-2 ATS.
Houston is going to win the division (-105) and make the playoffs (-140). This we know. But can the Texans be more?
Let’s find out with my 2025 Houston Texans NFL betting preview.
Houston Texans best bets
Read on for Jason's full analysis and Houston Texans breakdown!
Houston Texans odds for 2025
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +2800 |
| Win conference | +1600 |
| Win division | -105 |
| Make playoffs | -140 |
| Over 9.5 wins | +100 |
| Under 9.5 wins | -130 |
Best futures bet: Win AFC South (-105)
The defense alone makes the Houston Texans the front runners to win a weak AFC South. And with C.J. Stroud as the best QB of the bunch, the Texans have the inside track to the divisional title and the postseason ticket that comes with it.
Bookies have Houston as a favorite in only nine games – six of which come against divisional rivals. In his two seasons as head coach, Ryans is 9-3 SU in divisional contests (but just 5-6-1 ATS).
Houston Texans at a glance: Is D enough?
The Texans’ stop unit enters 2025 projected to be a Top 3 unit, anchored by a dominating front and the best secondary in the business.
The deciding factor for this team, however, is the offense. New coordinator Nick Caley overhauled the playbook and more importantly the offensive line, trying to keep Stroud clean after suffering 52 sacks last season.
The skill positions have standouts, like WR Nico Collins, but injuries have worn away at the depth chart. This attack is already down WR Tank Dell and missing RB Joe Mixon for the first few weeks.
What will win bets: Defense
Name a key defensive metric and the Texans likely finished Top 10 in that sucker. It begins with the pass rush, with Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter living under the bed of NFL quarterbacks.
The defensive line is able to hurry rival passers into precarious positions, leading them into the jaws of this stop unit.
Houston’s secondary is stacked, getting even better with the addition of C.J. Gardner-Johnson alongside shutdown CB Derek Stingley Jr. Nineteen of the team’s 29 takeaways were interceptions in 2024. There could be more INTs on their way.
What will lose bets: Offensive line
At least it can’t get any worse.
Houston overhauled the o-line this offseason, shedding underperforming players and hefty contracts along with promoting a new line coach in Cole Popovich.
This group still projects to be one of the poorest protection units in the NFL but after allowing Stroud to feel the heat on 28% of dropbacks (panning out to 52 sacks), any improvement is welcome.
Caley is trying to offset this weakness by giving Stroud more control at the line of scrimmage. There is going to be a learning curve for this new playbook in the opening weeks. Let’s hope C.J. can survive to see the spoils.
Houston Texans schedule + spot bet: Good but not great
Good teams win. Great teams cover. That’s the mating call of the sports bettors.
The age-old adage fits the Texans. This has been a good team with 20 regular season wins under Ryans, but the ATS results are a vanilla 16-16-2. That pales in comparison to the “great teams” with the likes of Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, and Philadelphia Eagles turning a profit most Sundays.
Look-ahead lines have Houston as a point spread favorite only nine times and nine of the team’s 17 spreads sit between a field goal (-3 to +3). Beyond the six AFC South matchups, the fate of the Texans is murky (underdogs in eight of the remaining 11 games).
The Texans do close out the calendar with three of their final four games inside NRG Stadium and avoid cold weather late in the year, for the most part. Six of the final seven contests are indoors – save for a playoff revenge tour against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 14.
Spot bet: Week 14 at Kansas City +6.5, 45.5
Chances are that trip to Arrowhead Stadium in early December won’t be as chilly as the AFC Divisional Round matchup last January. But, if “Wrath of Khan” taught us anything, it’s that revenge is a dish best served cold.
That dish comes with a side of situational spot for the Texans, who will be playing their second straight road game and third away tilt in four weeks when they battle KC on Sunday Night Football.
This will also be just the second time since Week 7 that Houston will be playing outdoors. Stroud’s production dips in open air, with his completion percentage, yards per pass, and QB rating taking a hit.
C.J. is A-OK
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Win MVP | +2500 |
| Lead NFL in Passing Yards | +3300 |
| Over 3825.5 Passing Yards | -110 |
| Under 3825.5 Passing Yards | -110 |
| Over 21.5 Passing Touchdowns | -110 |
| Under 21.5 Passing Touchdowns | -110 |
C.J. Stroud best bet: Over 21.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)
The Texans’ ground game is dinged up and that could leave red zone touches to Stroud, who passed for 20 touchdowns in 17 games last season.
There are some jump ball options in the end zone with 6-foot-4 Collins, 6-foot-4 rookie Jayden Higgins, and 6-foot-5 TE Dalton Schultz. Rookie RB Woody Marks is also a pass catching threat on screens.
Season-long forecasts call for between 24 and 26 passing TDs from Stroud, who benefits from plenty of indoor outings in the home stretch of the schedule.
Houston Texans trend: Home Unders
With a top-tier defense, it’s no surprise the Texans have been a top Under play under DeMeco Ryans. In his two seasons as head coach, Houston is 12-22 O/U – staying below the number almost 68% of the time.
Put the Texans insider NRG Stadium and those Under profits pile up, with the Texans owning a 4-13 O/U count at home. That includes staying Under the total in seven of eight home stands in 2024.
Look-ahead totals range between 43.5 and 46.5 points in Houston’s home games in 2025.
More NFL team previews
Want to see Jason's forecast for the rest of the NFL? Check out all of his NFL team previews below!
| Bills | Ravens | Texans | Broncos |
| Dolphins | Bengals | Colts | Chiefs |
| Patriots | Browns | Jaguars | Raiders |
| Jets | Steelers | Titans | Chargers |
| Cowboys | Bears | Falcons | Cardinals |
| Giants | Lions | Panthers | Rams |
| Eagles | Packers | Saints | 49ers |
| Commanders | Vikings | Buccaneers | Seahawks |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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