I don’t know what stung more for the Buffalo Bills: losing to Kansas City in the AFC Championship again or watching the Chiefs get absolutely shit stomped in Super Bowl LIX?
You have to think the Bills would’ve put in a better effort against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Hey, we’ll get to find out in Week 17!
Buffalo is listed among the favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in 2025, and books are hot and heavy on the Bills, who are the only NFL team to be a point spread favorite in all 17 games, according to the look-ahead lines.
Winning games doesn’t always equal betting profits, however.
Buffalo has the third-best win/loss record in the regular season since 2022 (71.9%), yet is 25-24-1 against the spread in those games. The mountains of chalk standing in front of Bills Mafia most Sundays won’t help with that ATS record.
We know Buffalo is a good team. Can it also be a good bet?
Here’s my 2025 Buffalo Bills betting preview.
Buffalo Bills best bets
Read on for Jason's full analysis and Buffalo Bills breakdown!
Buffalo Bills odds for 2025
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +650 |
| Win conference | +375 |
| Win division | -310 |
| Make playoffs | -800 |
| Over 12.5 wins | +120 |
| Under 12.5 wins | -150 |
Best futures bet: Win first seven games (+500)
Want to set yourself up for some nice hedge spots in the first seven games of the season?
The Bills have a very solid shot at starting the 2025 campaign with seven straight victories — if they can get past the visiting Baltimore Ravens in Week 1.
So bet this Bills prop and take the Ravens’ Week 1 moneyline at EVEN money for the same amount. If Buffalo loses, you get your money back. No harm. No foul.
Beyond Baltimore, the Bills visit the Jets, host Miami, host New Orleans, host New England, visit Atlanta, and visit Carolina (after a Week 7 bye). Look-ahead lines have Buffalo laying -5.5 or more in each of those outings.
Not only is that a very soft schedule in the first two months, but you can hedge with the opponents’ moneyline if you get cold feet, getting prices of +200 or higher on those foes.
Buffalo Bills at a glance: Comes down to defense
Whether we're talking about winning the AFC title or covering the spread, it all boils down to defense. This time I'm talking about spreads.
Buffalo is laying -5.5 or higher in 11 games, with seven of those outings pouring on a touchdown or more of chalk. The last three seasons, the team is 18-3 SU as a favorite of a TD-plus but just 9-12 ATS.
Josh Allen and the offense have more than enough spunk to threaten those lofty lines in 2025. It will come down to the defense whether or not those bets cash.
The Bills' stop unit is strong up front but far from special, especially when stacked up against other top contenders like Baltimore, Detroit, Kansas City, and Philadelphia.
What will win bets: Offense
The reigning MVP does damage through the air and on the ground, playing behind a solid offensive line that finished fourth in pass block win rate in 2024. Allen is a red zone monster and doesn’t leave points on the table often.
Buffalo cashed in for a TD almost 70% of the time inside the 20-yard line. The Bills showed no mercy, topping the NFL in second-half scoring and ranking third in fourth-quarter points.
Allen’s receiving corps is deep with capable pass catchers and an emerging No. 1 in Khalil Shakir at the slot. The ground game has RB James Cook coming off a 1,000-yard season, in which Buffalo finished third in EPA per handoff — albeit a distant third to Philly and Baltimore.
What will lose bets: Defense
As mentioned, scaling the mountain of chalk is a team effort. Buffalo’s defense is good — or maybe I should say “good enough” to earn another AFC East title. Statistically, the 2024 stop unit was middle of the road in many advanced metrics and ranked 26th in PFF’s defensive rating.
Before sitting the starters in a Week 18 loss to New England, the Bills allowed an average of 31.4 points in the five games in which they failed to cover the spread. Defensive coordinator Bobby Babich gave up big points to the NFL’s top-tier attacks, and he took a lot of the blame for the AFC title game loss at Kansas City.
Buffalo has been one of the best defenses at creating takeaways the past five years, constantly ranking near the top in forced turnovers. Sustaining that since 2020 is impressive, but this is normally an outcome with deviations year to year.
Buffalo Bills schedule + spot bet: Road-heavy finish
Thanks to life in the AFC East and non-conference crossovers with the NFC South, the Bills get the No. 23 schedule in SOS. However, there are plenty of snags beyond that soft start alluded to above.
First off, Buffalo’s schedule has it at a rest disadvantage of seven days, according to Sharp Football Analysis, with some Monday and Thursday games in the mix.
Things get bumpy when the Chiefs come to Orchard Park in Week 9 (-2.5) for a HUGE revenge game. From then on, it’s plenty of playoff contenders aiming for the Bills and a schedule that puts Buffalo on the road in five of seven games between Weeks 10 and 16.
If you’re a member of the Mafia, you may want to double up on your annual order of long underwear this season. The last six games are all outdoors in cold-weather climates, including a potential Super Bowl preview versus Philadelphia in Week 17.
Spot bet: Week 17 vs. Philadelphia -1.5, 46.5
And speaking of that massive matchup with the Eagles... Buffalo does catch Philadelphia playing its second straight road game and third roadie in four weeks on December 28.
And due to a Monday game at the L.A. Chargers in Week 14, the Eagles are cramming those four games into 20 days.
In fact, that trip to Buffalo closes a grueling eight games in 38 days for Philadelphia — a game every 4.75 days with plenty of travel in between.
Just Josh’n
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Win MVP | +550 |
| Lead NFL in passing yards | +1500 |
| Over 3749.5 passing yards | -110 |
| Under 3749.5 passing yards | -110 |
| Over 27.5 passing touchdowns | +110 |
| Under 27.5 passing touchdowns | -140 |
Josh Allen best bet: Under 10.5 rushing touchdowns (-130)
Allen scrambled for 12 rushing touchdowns in 2024, with many of those scores coming in the Bills’ biggest games.
He ran for two TDs in a shootout with Arizona in Week 1, ran for three tuddies against the Rams, had a pair at Detroit, and cracked the goal line in games against San Francisco and Kansas City.
Projections for 2025 call for 11 rushing touchdowns for the new “Mr. Hailee Steinfeld” — just over this 10.5-touchdown total.
I’ll put on my front office hat for this one and say that with Cook locking in a new four-year deal, Buffalo will look to protect Allen from any harm and not call his number as often in red-zone run situations.
Buffalo Bills trend: Strong starts
That Sunday Night Week 1 game with Baltimore is a doozy. Luckily, Sean McDermott tends to start fast and bring bettors along for the ride.
Last year, the Bills were 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in the opening three weeks, improving McDermott to 18-6 SU and 15-8-1 ATS between Week 1 and Week 3 since 2017.
Buffalo Bills' first three weeks
- Week 1 vs. Baltimore -1.5
- Week 2 at N.Y. Jets -8.5
- Week 2 vs. Miami (TNF) -8.5
More NFL team previews
Want to see Jason's forecast for the rest of the NFL? Check out all of his NFL team previews below!
| Bills | Ravens | Texans | Broncos |
| Dolphins | Bengals | Colts | Chiefs |
| Patriots | Browns | Jaguars | Raiders |
| Jets | Steelers | Titans | Chargers |
| Cowboys | Bears | Falcons | Cardinals |
| Giants | Lions | Panthers | Rams |
| Eagles | Packers | Saints | 49ers |
| Commanders | Vikings | Buccaneers | Seahawks |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
