The New England Patriots wanted to move on from the Bill Belichick era but a 4-13 finish to the 2024 season was too drastic of a move for their liking.
First-time head coach Jerod Mayo was out of his depth and owner Robert Kraft wasn’t willing to wait, especially with more qualified Belichick disciples Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels looking for work.
And just like duffing your golf shot into the woods, New England is calling for a mulligan in 2025.
The Patriots’ 2025 odds are closer to the fabled franchise that won nine AFC titles in the last two decades than a four-win team. The season win total is at 8.5 and look-ahead lines set the Pats as favorites in 11 games, including all but one home game.
That’s a huge vote of confidence for this revamped coaching staff and a defense that is expected to improve greatly.
Here’s my 2025 New England Patriots betting preview.
New England Patriots best bets
Read on for Jason's full analysis and New England Patriots breakdown!
New England Patriots odds for 2025
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +7500 |
| Win conference | +3500 |
| Win division | +500 |
| Make playoffs | +140 |
| Over 8.5 wins | +100 |
| Under 8.5 wins | -130 |
Best futures bet: Second in AFC East (+175)
The New England Patriots are promising, especially when you stack this defense up against one of the softest schedules in the NFL.
They could go Over 8.5 (+100) wins and they could sniff the postseason (+140) as well, but finishing ahead of Miami and the New York Jets (and behind Buffalo) in the AFC East seems most probable and with the biggest payout.
Vrabel is a massive leap in coaching smarts and built a stop unit that will keep New England in just about every game.
New England Patriots at a glance: Retro revamp
The Belichick coaching tree has firmly taken root in Boston. Vrabel seemed destined for this job and McDaniels completes his trilogy with the franchise.
The new/old offensive coordinator has his work cut out for him. Second-year QB Drake Maye is hoping to avoid the same decline as his predecessor Mac Jones. He has a retooled offensive line in front of him and limited weapons at the skill positions.
McDaniels’ offense, which is being dumbed down for Maye, has been pedestrian at best when anyone but Tom Brady was under center. Luckily, a litany of porous defensive opponents are on deck.
What will win bets: Defense
New England added to a promising roster this offseason, padding a stop unit that many preseason projections believe can be a Top 10 defense.
The Patriots’ secondary and linebackers are a blend of budding talents and steady veterans. The defensive line has the biggest demands after the team finished with one of the weakest pass rushes in 2024.
Vrabel’s schemes ask a lot of the D-line, trying to generate pressure with movement and stunts and not always relying on the blitz to hurry quarterbacks. Last year’s lack of pressure trickled down to the third fewest takeaways, with just 12 turnovers forced.
Generating more "game changing" plays and upping the sack count will go a long way considering the competition and tight spreads.
What will lose bets: Offense
Maye made Pats fans forget all about that Brady guy at times in 2024. He played some of his biggest games against New England’s toughest opponents and has the wheels to keep defenses guessing, rushing for 421 yards last season.
McDaniels offers a new system and the team invested in the receiving corps, including veteran WR Stefon Diggs and rookie Kyle Williams.
However, that isn’t enough to put points on the board. The offensive line was overhauled but isn’t fixed after rating 31st and 32nd in pass and run block win rates.
And speaking of running, the Rhamondre Stevenson/Antonio Gibson combo isn’t going to get it done. Exciting rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson will likely be the bell cow back by the end of the year (+1200 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year).
New England Patriots schedule + spot bet: Easy peasy
A schedule rated 30th in SOS is fueling look-ahead lines that list the Patriots as favorites in 11 games. Only five other AFC teams are betting chalk more often this season. That said, not all spreads are created equal.
New England draw tight lines most weeks, with nine spread within a field goal (-3 to +3). And when running up against the NFL’s elite, the Pats are getting +4.5 or higher versus the likes of Buffalo (twice), Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, and Baltimore.
The Patriots offense also gets a gift in terms of defensive opposition. I can count up 10 contests against sub-par stop units, including four divisional games versus Miami and the N.Y. Jets.
Spot bet: Week 12 at Cincinnati +4.5, 47.5
The Patriots catch the Bengals in a bad situational spot in Week 12, with the schedule giving New England an edge.
The Pats play at home versus the Jets on Thursday night in Week 11, setting up a mini bye before traveling to Ohio for November 23.
As for Cincinnati, it will be coming off a very physical game at Pittsburgh and runs the risk of a look-ahead spot, with a Thursday game of its own against Baltimore in Week 13.
Let’s not forget, New England got the best of the Bengals in Week 1 of last season. The Patriots won outright 16-10 as 7.5-point road underdogs, setting Cincy up for another slow start.
F--- Wit Maye Day
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Win MVP | +5000 |
| Lead NFL in Passing Yards | +5000 |
| Over 3274.5 Passing Yards | -110 |
| Under 3274.5 Passing Yards | -110 |
| Over 19.5 Touchdowns Passes | -130 |
| Under 19.5 Touchdown Passes | +100 |
Drake Maye best bet: Over 3274.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Patriots fans feel good about Maye’s prospects after training camp and preseason. The second-year QB looks to be settling into Daniels’ playbook quickly.
The upcoming schedule helps his maturation with some really bad defenses right out of the shoot. Las Vegas, Miami, Carolina, New Orleans, Tennessee, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, the New York Jets and Cincinnati make up nine of the first dozen foes. Those teams could be the nine worst stop units in the land.
Season-long forecasts are tempered, ranging from just under 3,500 to close to 3,700 passing yards from Maye. That's still more than enough to top this player prop total.
New England Patriots trend: Vrabel as a dog
Scrounging for any betting trends with teeth when it comes to the post-Brady Patriots is pointless. However, there is a notable pattern as it pertains to their new head coach.
Mike Vrabel was known amongst the gambling community as a solid underdog bet during his tenue in Tennessee, covering as a pup at a 58% clip from 2018 to 2023.
Put Vrabel’s Titans at home with some points in hand and his team was 13-6-1 ATS as a home underdog (67.5%) in those six seasons.
New England catches points only once in Foxborough this season (+4.5 vs. Buffalo in Week 15).
More NFL team previews
Want to see Jason's forecast for the rest of the NFL? Check out all of his NFL team previews below!
| Bills | Ravens | Texans | Broncos |
| Dolphins | Bengals | Colts | Chiefs |
| Patriots | Browns | Jaguars | Raiders |
| Jets | Steelers | Titans | Chargers |
| Cowboys | Bears | Falcons | Cardinals |
| Giants | Lions | Panthers | Rams |
| Eagles | Packers | Saints | 49ers |
| Commanders | Vikings | Buccaneers | Seahawks |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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