For a second straight year, the Chicago Bears won the offseason.
After landing the golden arm of Caleb Williams and surrounding the first overall pick with a surplus of weapons in 2024, the Bears once again made massive improvements this winter.
A revamped offensive line and an overhauled coaching staff, headlined by highly courted head coach Ben Johnson, are serving up optimism “deep dish” style in the Windy City.
But unlike the Bears' NBA counterparts, oddsmakers aren’t bullish on Chicago.
The Bears are favorites in just six of their 17 games, and the season win total markets firmly point to an eight-win finish, as the "Monsters of the Midway" tackle one of the toughest schedules in the league.
I figure out if those "winds of change" can fill the sails of sports bettors or if they're just hot air with my Chicago Bears 2025 NFL betting preview.
Chicago Bears best bets
Read on for Jason's full analysis and Chicago Bears breakdown!
Chicago Bears odds for 2025
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +4000 |
| Win conference | +1600 |
| Win division | +500 |
| Make playoffs | +175 |
| Over 8.5 wins | +125 |
| Under 8.5 wins | -155 |
Best futures bet: Third in NFC North (+240)
The NFC North is the most competitive group in all of football, with everyone but the Chicago Bears making the postseason last year.
Detroit is forecasted for a slight stumble after losing its talented coordinators, Minnesota has its fingers crossed on QB J.J. McCarthy, and Green Bay went 1-5 in divisional games last year.
There’s an opportunity for Chicago to slide past one of those foes and finish third, especially with an early bye in Week 5 and some softer defensive foes in that stretch helping Johnson’s playbook find its legs.
Chicago Bears at a glance: A fine line
Forget about Williams and the toybox of passing options in Johnson’s offense. If the Bears are going to take the next step, it will be due to neutral zone wins.
After watching Williams run for his life behind a bunch of rusty lawn chairs, Chicago invested heavily in pass protection and enters 2025 with a Top 5 offensive line. Williams felt the heat on over 23% of dropbacks, which led to the second-worst third-down conversion rate.
On the other side of the ball, Chicago’s pass rush ranked among the elite in 2024 despite not blitzing much. New defensive coordinator Dennis Allen and offseason personnel additions inject a lot of energy into this line.
What will win bets: Defense
There’s no shortage of offensive opposition on the calendar for Chicago. Beyond Detroit and Green Bay, top guns like Washington, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and San Francisco show up in 2025.
The Bears were a better-than-average stop unit last season, ranking out with respectable measurements in defensive EPA per play and DVOA. They were able to get pressure on passers, and that led to some game-changing plays, with Chicago registering 24 takeaways.
Dennis Allen’s aggressive approach and man-heavy schemes can leave the Bears open to big plays but also makes this defense dangerous — especially if D-line additions like Dayo Odeyingbo and Grady Jarrett can spring Montez Sweat.
Any improvement makes this a Top 10 stop unit in 2025.
What will lose bets: Growing pains
Ben Johnson was on top of every team’s head coach wish list the past three seasons. There’s no denying his offensive acumen, but he’s a first-time head coach and is installing a dynamic playbook with a brand-new group. There’s going to be a grace period.
The same can be said for Allen and his defense. The Bears remain in a 4-3 set but adopt a much more intense philosophy, using more man and aggressive press coverage. They’ll have to toe the line between control and chaos.
The 2025 schedule has Johnson & Co. matching wits with several high-IQ opponents and longtime head coaches. Chicago has several spreads in the field goal range (-3 to +3), which means the margin for error is thin. Bad decisions trickle down to the bettor.
Chicago Bears schedule + spot bet: Winter is coming
Chicago was handed the third toughest schedule in the land, yet the schedule makers cut it a little slack in the opening seven weeks.
That stretch still features contenders like Minnesota, Detroit, Washington, and Baltimore, but also foes like Dallas, Las Vegas, and New Orleans (faves in all three games), as well as an early Week 5 bye that will be vital to this new coaching staff.
Look-ahead lines have Chicago as a favorite in just six games, and there are nine spreads in the field goal range (-3 to +3), showing bookies aren’t writing off Da Bears by any means. This team went 5-12 last season, but seven of those defeats were by six points or less.
If Chicago is going to make a run at the postseason, it will need to grow up quickly. From Week 13 to Week 18, the Bears run a gauntlet of contenders and top defenses: at Philadelphia (Black Friday), at Green Bay, vs. Cleveland, vs. Green Bay (Saturday), at San Francisco, vs. Detroit.
Spot bet: Week 9 @ Cincinnati +3, 48.5
The Bears play back-to-back road games and their third away tilt in a compacted four-week slate at Cincinnati in Week 9.
Chicago is at Washington for Monday Night Football in Week 6, taking away a day of rest and adding a significant amount of travel to the team by the end of October. The Bears host New Orleans in Week 7, then take an AFC North tour to Baltimore in Week 8 and then Cincy in Week 9.
The Bengals will be playing their third straight home game on November 2, and thanks to a Thursday game in Week 7, they’ll have a rest advantage in that stretch. Chicago is currently getting +3 and went 2-5-1 ATS as road underdogs last season.
Big Willi Style
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Win MVP | +3300 |
| Lead NFL in Passing Yards | +2500 |
| Over 3550.5 Passing Yards | -110 |
| Under 3550.5 Passing Yards | -110 |
| Over 22.5 Passing Touchdowns | -110 |
| Under 22.5 Passing Touchdowns | -110 |
Caleb Williams best bet: Over 22.5 passing touchdowns (-110)
Williams threw for 20 touchdowns in his rookie campaign, and if there’s one thing Ben Johnson does well, it’s cashing in red-zone chances. During his tenure in Detroit, the Bears' new head coach had the Lions among the leaders in touchdown rate inside the 20-yard line.
The offense won’t stall out as often with competent protection, improving on third down conversions, and trimming down long yardage situations. Johnson’s famed two-TE sets proved to be RZ gold in Motown, and the Bears have two very talented tight ends.
Player projections range from 21.5 to 25 touchdown throws from Williams, who looked solid in preseason showings (if that counts for anything).
Chicago Bears trend: Road woes
With such an overhaul in coaching and talent, any trends under the Matt Eberflus regime could be null and void in 2025.
Johnson’s offense helped the Lions become road warriors in his three years as Detroit’s OC, boasting the best road ATS record over those three seasons (20-6 ATS). Chicago, on the other hand, was the worst road bet in football (8-16-1 ATS) from 2022 to 2024.
The Bears were also 4-21 SU in those away games. Any improvement to that road record under Johnson will go a long way.
More NFL team previews
Want to see Jason's forecast for the rest of the NFL? Check out all of his NFL team previews below!
| Bills | Ravens | Texans | Broncos |
| Dolphins | Bengals | Colts | Chiefs |
| Patriots | Browns | Jaguars | Raiders |
| Jets | Steelers | Titans | Chargers |
| Cowboys | Bears | Falcons | Cardinals |
| Giants | Lions | Panthers | Rams |
| Eagles | Packers | Saints | 49ers |
| Commanders | Vikings | Buccaneers | Seahawks |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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