The final spot in the 2026 World Cup final is up for grabs in Atlanta on Wednesday, when England and Argentina face off at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Lionel Messi is tied for the Golden Boot lead, and one more goal will give him sole possession of first place.
Meanwhile, Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham have combined for 12 of England’s 13 goals in the tournament, with six goals each to their names. However, one of them is not getting the goalscoring odds respect I feel he deserves.
Here are my top England vs. Argentina goal scorer picks for Wednesday, July 15.
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England vs Argentina props goal scorer picks
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My England vs Argentina props and goal scorer predictions
Jude Bellingham
Harry Kane is the favorite to score for England, and understandably so. But I don’t think the gap between his probability (39%) and that of Jude Bellingham should be this drastic of a gap.
Bellingham has often operated almost as a support striker over the past few matches, making secondary runs into the box after Kane opens space. He’s also more than capable of beating people with the ball at his feet, leading all midfielders with 37 ground duels won in the tournament.
Of the five players in the tournament with six or more goals, he’s got the highest conversion rate (35.29%). More importantly, he trails only Ousmane Dembele in terms of goals scored above expected, blowing past his 3.38 xG.
Bellingham has more touches in the penalty area than Kane despite playing 48 fewer minutes, and he presents far greater value than his teammate in this spot.
Lionel Messi
On the flip side, I’m taking Lionel Messi to score for Argentina because there’s nobody else in this Argentina side that I trust.
Only three Argentine players have racked up more than 1.00 xG in the tournament. In fact, Messi has accounted for 5.27 of his nation’s 12.78 expected goals in total and 18 of their 39 accurate shots.
Switzerland held him without a goal, but they also played an extremely tight, compact midfield shape that England doesn’t deploy. Additionally, the Three Lions may be without Declan Rice at the base of midfield—and if he does play, he’ll be at far less than 100%.
Messi was still heavily involved against the Swiss with 120 touches, and is averaging 73 touches per 90 minutes. If Argentina are to find a goal in this match, it’s very likely Messi will be the one scoring it.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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