I finally got around to watching that Kevin James movie “Home Team” about Sean Payton coaching high school football during his suspension in 2012. Honestly, it was better than expected.
I can say the same for Payton’s 2024 season with the Denver Broncos.
Denver entered last season as a look-ahead underdog in 15 of 17 games, lugging a win total of just 5.5, and was a +700 long shot to make the postseason.
When the smoke cleared, the Broncos rode a dominating defense and a steady rookie campaign from QB Bo Nix to 10 wins and a playoff spot. More importantly, Denver finished with a 12-5 ATS record — tied for tops in the NFL.
The 2025 preseason odds look very different for Payton & Co. The Broncos are chalk in 12 of 17 games, have a win total of 9.5 O/U, and are priced at -130 to make the tournament.
Expectations are “Rocky Mountain High.” Will those profits keep climbing or fall off a cliff?
Here’s my 2025 Denver Broncos NFL betting preview.
Denver Broncos best bets
Read on for Jason's full analysis and Denver Broncos breakdown!
Denver Broncos odds for 2025
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +2200 |
| Win conference | +1400 |
| Win division | +300 |
| Make playoffs | -130 |
| Over 9.5 wins | +100 |
| Under 9.5 wins | -130 |
Best futures bet: Second in AFC West (+220)
The Denver Broncos continue to chase the Chiefs, with the L.A. Chargers running neck-and-neck. The odds for those two teams to finish second or third in the division are interchangeable, but I have more faith in Denver’s defense.
The Broncos didn’t rest on a stop unit that ranked No. 1 in EPA allowed per play and all those other fancy analytics. They brought in veteran LB Dre Greenlaw and S Talanoa Hufanga from San Francisco to add depth.
That defense will keep Denver in every game, and the final stretch of schedule gives the team the inside track over L.A., with the Broncos playing three of their final four at home — including a Week 18 home game versus the Chargers.
Denver Broncos at a glance: Walk the line
The Broncos are set up for success due to their strength in the trenches.
The defensive line is a Top 10 front that’s able to generate pressure without depending on the blitz. That makes the linebackers and secondary — which is one of the best in the NFL — that much better.
The offensive line is also projected to be a top-tier unit. Denver’s protection was No. 1 in block pass block and run block win rate at ESPN, and all five starters are back in 2025. That makes life easy for Bo Nix, especially considering that the skill positions are weak.
What will win bets: Defense
As good as the Broncos’ defense was last season, it could be even better. Offseason additions and the return of injured players makes this unit very deep and dangerous.
Denver does it all. The defensive line was among the best in pass rush and run stop win rate, sitting second in success rate allowed. The Broncos’ pressure lured rival QBs into throwing hurried balls into an elite secondary, which left Denver to sit No. 1 in pass defense by a mile.
The 2025 schedule will test the Broncos’ mettle, however. Outside of facing both Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert two times, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, C.J. Stroud, Jayden Daniels, and Jordan Love all line up across from the Broncos’ D.
What will lose bets: Skill positions
Nix’s maturation was fun to watch in 2024, with the rookie getting better the more he learned Payton’s system. He was a bottom-tier passer in the first nine weeks before soaring up the advanced stats, like EPA and CPOE, in the closing 11 weeks.
Now it’s on Nix to lift a shallow talent pool at receiver and running back. Tight end Evan Engram is a nice addition to a ho-hum group of targets, with Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims Jr. headlining.
The rushing attack needs all it can get from the O-line’s run blocking. Injury-prone RB J.K. Dobbins and second-round selection R.J. Harvey, who the team traded down to get, will split carries.
Last year’s output did the trick when Denver was getting points or facing short chalk most weeks. With 2025 look-aheads laying -3.5 or more in eight games, Broncos bettors will be begging for offense.
Denver Broncos schedule + spot bet: Mountain men
As mentioned, Denver is a favorite in a dozen games, including eight of its nine home stands. Last year, the Broncos finished 6-2 SU and ATS at Mile High — 6-0 SU and ATS as home faves.
However, Denver won’t see those friendly faces much in the opening nine weeks. It’s away from home in five of those games, including a trip to London in Week 6. That international game with the Jets will actually be the Broncos’ fourth away game in five weeks.
A Monday nigher versus Cincinnati in Week 4 and a Thursday night appearance versus Las Vegas in Week 10 squeezes Denver for seven games in 38 days (with no bye after the UK trip).
That Week 10 homestand with the Raiders does serve as the start of a very home-friendly finish. Denver plays five of its final eight outings at Empower Field (with a Week 12 bye), which really helps that postseason push.
Spot bet: Week 1 vs. Tennessee -7.5, 41.5
One of my annual betting traditions is taking the Broncos in their home opener.
The team is 20-5 SU and 14-7-4 ATS in those games since 2000, leveraging the thin air of Mile High against opponents who aren’t quite in game shape.
This year’s home opener sees the Broncos battling a mountain of chalk, thanks in large part to the Titans starting rookie Cam Ward on the road against one of the best defenses in the land.
The Broncos will undoubtedly be a popular survivor pool pick in Week 1 while offering plenty of six-point teaser fodder, walking that line down through a bunch of key numbers.
Nix the quick
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Win MVP | +5000 |
| Lead NFL in Passing Yards | +3000 |
| Over 3524.5 Passing Yards | -110 |
| Under 3524.5 Passing Yards | -110 |
| Over 24.5 Passing Touchdowns | -110 |
| Under 24.5 Passing Touchdowns | -110 |
Bo Nix best bet: Over 424.5 rushing yards (-110)
A back injury dampened Nix’s ground gains midway through the year after seeing his number called quite a bit in the first half of the schedule. He healed up and returned to that pace in the home stretch, finishing with 430 rushing yards.
Being able to scramble away from pressure or keep the defense guessing with a designed run is one of Nix’s greatest strengths. He’s not Lamar Jackson but does run a ton of RPO, and Year 2 in Payton’s system will leverage those crazy legs.
Season models aren’t bullish on Bo, with forecasts between 418 and 460 rushing yards. Given the growing tape and so-so skill players around him, Nix will have to make plays with his legs in 2025.
Denver Broncos trend: First Half Overs
With Payton in just his third season in Denver and Nix entering his sophomore campaign, any respectable Broncos betting trends are tough to come by.
One thing that did jump out last season was the team’s 13-5 Over/Under mark against first-half totals in 2024.
Denver’s opening 30 minutes averaged 22.5 points before those points plummeted to 20.2 in the final two frames.
That biggest impact was second-half adjustments by the defense, limiting foes to 8.4 2H points and rating out well above all other stop units in the second half.
More NFL team previews
Want to see Jason's forecast for the rest of the NFL? Check out all of his NFL team previews below!
| Bills | Ravens | Texans | Broncos |
| Dolphins | Bengals | Colts | Chiefs |
| Patriots | Browns | Jaguars | Raiders |
| Jets | Steelers | Titans | Chargers |
| Cowboys | Bears | Falcons | Cardinals |
| Giants | Lions | Panthers | Rams |
| Eagles | Packers | Saints | 49ers |
| Commanders | Vikings | Buccaneers | Seahawks |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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