The Indianapolis Colts raised eyebrows when they named Daniel Jones as their starting quarterback in Week 1 of the 2025 season.
Is Anthony Richardson that far gone? Or is Indianapolis pulling a page from the Carolina Panthers’ playbook, benching their “franchise” QB in hopes of lighting a fire under his ass?
Those quarterback questions will likely loom large in Indy all season and are at the core of the Colts’ preseason projections.
According to look-ahead lines, Indianapolis is an NFL odds favorite in only four games, and the season win total at 7.5 (Under padded to -115) has the Colts chasing Houston and Jacksonville in the AFC South.
Capable QB play would go a long way in Indianapolis, which has been the tale of this franchise since Andrew Luck gave the franchise the Irish goodbye in 2019.
Here’s my 2025 Indianapolis Colts NFL betting preview.
Indianapolis Colts best bets
Read on for Jason's full analysis and Indianapolis Colts breakdown!
Indianapolis Colts odds for 2025
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +10000 |
| Win conference | +5000 |
| Win division | +375 |
| Make playoffs | +200 |
| Over 7.5 wins | -105 |
| Under 7.5 wins | -115 |
Best futures bet: Under 7.5 wins (-115)
The Colts could come out swinging. They face winnable matchups against Miami, Tennessee (twice), Las Vegas, and Arizona within the first eight weeks.
Then the schedule puckers up. Indianapolis is a favorite only once in the final nine games and plays plenty of those tilts away from home, including a trip to Germany in Week 10.
Even with average QB contributions, eight wins is a big ask. With the Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson that we’ve seen recently (or rookie Riley Leonard) at the wheel, four wins could be the Colts' ceiling in 2025.
Indianapolis Colts at a glance: Blunder under center
Indy has been trying to solve its quarterback conundrum for seven years now, wasting solid rosters on subpar passers. The 2025 version of this team has plenty of positives.
Shane Steichen is a smart head coach. Indianapolis has quality in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The run and pass game boasts depth and plenty of options.
But it’s all for not if the quarterback is crap.
Jones and Richardson wrapped 2024 among the worst QBs in many advanced metrics and combined to throw 19 interceptions in 21 appearances.
What will win bets: Trenches
Indianapolis always seems to have a solid offensive line protecting some pop-gun passer. This season is no different.
The Colts watched some long-time blockers move on this offseason, but they should still have plenty of push for a group that finished No. 4 in run block win rate at ESPN in 2024.
Defensively, the Colts were 14th in the flip of that metric, utilizing a beefy interior line to plug up the gaps. Indianapolis was 10th in EPA allowed per handoff and fifth in success rate allowed per run.
What will lose bets: Quarterback play
Did I mention the Colts are up shit creek without a QB?
Jones’ arm doesn’t do much damage beyond 10 yards, and while Richardson has a bazooka, his accuracy and poor decisions on deep throws lead to drive-killing interceptions.
Without a proven passer to keep defenses honest, the Colts’ rushing attack will get jammed up as opponents crowd the box. Rival defenses will dare Indy to throw the ball past the sticks.
Indianapolis Colts schedule + spot bet: Pack your suitcase
The Colts open with four home games in the first six weeks, setting up for what could be a solid start to 2025. The team then starts stacking the frequent flyer miles in mid-October.
Indianapolis plays three of four away from home from Week 7 to Week 10, which brings the team to Munich for an international affair with Atlanta. Following a Week 11 bye, the Colts are back on the road for three of the next four outings.
Oddsmakers are a little undecided on Indianapolis, which has nine spread parked at a field goal or less (-3 to +3). Last season, the Colts went 5-2 SU and ATS in games within that FG range.
Spot bet: Week 15 at Seattle +3.5, 44.5
Who knows who will be at QB by the time the Colts come to Seattle on December 14? It might not matter, considering the schedule crunch Indy finds itself in.
The Colts play the second of back-to-back road games and their third roadie in four weeks against the Seahawks, who will have one of the better defenses in the NFL this year.
On top of that, winter weather in the Pacific Northwest sucks that time of the year, especially when you’re an indoor team like Indianapolis.
Taylor Made
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Offensive Player of the Year | +3500 |
| Lead NFL in rushing | +900 |
| Over 1200.5 rushing yards | -110 |
| Under 1200.5 rushing yards | -110 |
| Over 9.5 rushing touchdowns | -115 |
| Under 9.5 rushing touchdowns | -105 |
Jonathan Taylor best bet: Under 9.5 rushing touchdowns (-105)
Jonathan Taylor rumbled for 11 touchdowns in 14 games for the Colts in 2024. He’s been limited by injuries the past three seasons, and while that may or may not happen in 2025, he is sharing the football with two QBs who love to take off.
Red zone carries could get cut back if Jones or Richardson decides to take off, either in designed calls or just scrambling from pressure. The Colts also added rookie RB D.J. Giddens to take the load off the veteran runner this season.
Season-long projections range from nine to 13 touchdown runs from Taylor.
Indianapolis Colts trend: Home Overs
The Colts have been a total-topping take at home under head coach Shane Steichen.
Indianapolis is 12-5 Over/Under inside Lucas Oil Stadium since 2023 (70% Overs), including a 5-2 O/U count at home last season.
The 2025 totals range from 44.5 to 47.5 points.
More NFL team previews
Want to see Jason's forecast for the rest of the NFL? Check out all of his NFL team previews below!
| Bills | Ravens | Texans | Broncos |
| Dolphins | Bengals | Colts | Chiefs |
| Patriots | Browns | Jaguars | Raiders |
| Jets | Steelers | Titans | Chargers |
| Cowboys | Bears | Falcons | Cardinals |
| Giants | Lions | Panthers | Rams |
| Eagles | Packers | Saints | 49ers |
| Commanders | Vikings | Buccaneers | Seahawks |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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