Watching two division rivals duke it out in the NFC Championship would hopefully light a fire under the ass of the Dallas Cowboys.
Unfortunately for fans of "The Star," Jerry Jones has asbestos-laden butt cheeks.
Despite their worst record in four years, the Cowboys didn’t do much to keep pace with the rest of the NFC East. And as of this writing, superstar edge Micah Parsons remains in contract purgatory with Week 1 rapidly approaching.
Mix in a coaching staff shakeup with a schedule that ranks among the hardest in the land, and it’s clear why Dallas is a point-spread favorite in only six games.
Here’s an in-depth look at the NFL odds and 2025 Dallas Cowboys betting preview.
Dallas Cowboys best bets
Read on for Jason's full analysis and Dallas Cowboys breakdown!
Dallas Cowboys odds for 2025
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +4500 |
| Win conference | +2000 |
| Win division | +600 |
| Make playoffs | +190 |
| Over 8.5 wins | +120 |
| Under 8.5 wins | -150 |
Best futures bet: Under 8.5 Wins (-150)
I flirted with taking the Dallas Cowboys to finish fourth in the NFC East (+280), but that would mean putting my faith in that four-headed monster under center in East Rutherford. No thanks.
Instead, we’ll pay the -150 for the Cowboys to come in at eight wins or less against one of the NFL's steepest schedules.
The defense could be the worst in the NFC, the sturdy offensive line is gone, and you have a first-time head coach in Brian Schottenheimer matching wits with some top-tier playcallers in 2025
Dallas Cowboys at a glance: Talent drought in “Big D”
Even with Micah Parsons breathing down the neck of opposing passers, this Cowboys defense is doo-doo. Without him, the Cowboys stop unit would be among the worst in the league.
Those defensive shortcomings are compounded by four dates with Philadelphia and Washington, as well as a schedule bursting with offensive opposition. Either way, Dallas will depend on the offense to keep it competitive.
When healthy, Dak Prescott throwing to CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens moves the chains. Again, when healthy. It’s up to an unproven offensive line to keep the decomposing Dak upright. Like every season, the Cowboys say they want to run. And like last season, they don’t have anyone to do it.
What will win bets: Passing Game
Given the defensive gaps and rotten rushing corps, the Cowboys will be airing it out and scoring quickly. Prescott’s injury issues cloud just how good a quarterback he truly is. Before going down in early November, Dallas was No. 2 in passing yards last fall.
Now Dak has an elite one-two punch with Lamb and Pickens, which should trickle down to the rest of the receiving corps. Dallas has complementary catchers in speedster KaVonte Turpin and tight ends Jake Ferguson and Luke Schoonmaker.
What will lose bets: Dreadful Defense
Preseason measurements put the Cowboys’ secondary and linebacker units among the NFL’s worst, and consistency is out the window with a third coordinator in as many years.
The brightest spots on the depth chart might not even be there in 2025, due to disputes and injuries (Parsons, Trevon Diggs, DeMarvion Overshown).
Dallas couldn’t stop the run in 2024, and little was done to plug those leaks, which means teams can control the clock and tempo and wear down a shallow talent pool. It also means extended drives cooling Prescott & Co. on the sideline.
Dallas Cowboys schedule + spot bet: Nothing comes easy
As mentioned above, oddsmakers don’t have high hopes for "America’s Team."
Dallas has no gimmes on the calendar, which ranks No. 5 in SOS, and faces a couple of schedule crunches. It plays four roadies in the first six weeks, then has three games in 10 days to close November.
Beyond a daunting divisional slate, the Cowboys’ toughest foes come at home (Green Bay, Arizona, Kansas City, Minnesota, L.A. Chargers). Dallas, which was once one of the best home bets in football, is an underdog in six of its eight outings inside "Jerry’s World."
The road sked has more boobytraps than the opening scene of "Raiders," featuring trips to Chicago, the Jets, Carolina, Denver, Las Vegas, and Detroit. The Cowboys are either pups or very short chalk in those away games.
Spot bet: Week 13 vs. Kansas City (+5.5, 47.5)
The Cowboys already have a spotty ATS mark in their annual Thanksgiving Day home stand (3-11 ATS last 14 years), and the 2025 schedule makers dish out two big helpings of nasty on the holiday.
On top of hosting the reigning AFC champs, Dallas will be playing its third game in 10 days on November 27, thanks to a Monday Night Football appearance at Vegas in Week 11.
This schedule spot isn’t anything new to the Cowboys’ Thanksgiving menu, but this short-week meeting with the Kansas City Chiefs follows a home game with the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12 (and is followed by a TNF trip to Detroit in Week 14).
Darts From Dak
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Win MVP | +3500 |
| Lead NFL in Passing Yards | +1100 |
| Passing Yards Over 3874.5 | -110 |
| Passing Yards Under 3874.5 | -110 |
| TD Passes Over 26.5 | +100 |
| TD Passes Under 26.5 | -130 |
Dak Prescott best bet: Over 26.5 Touchdown Passes (+100)
Season projections for Prescott range from 24 touchdowns to 30, which seems conservative, considering this playbook will be forced to be "pass happy."
Futures books have Prescott as the third-overall favorite to lead the league in passing yards, behind only Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes. That's good company. Before going down last year, Dak had 11 touchdown throws in eight games (vs. TD total of 30.5) and finished 2023 with 36 scoring strikes.
Schottenheimer is now calling the plays on offense, and he had Seattle ranked among the top red-zone TD rates in his three years as the Seahawks’ coordinator. Lamb and Pickens are TD targets and also create a lot of space in the end zone.
Dallas Cowboys trend: Home Overs
Under former coach Mike McCarthy, Dallas was 27-15 Over/Under inside AT&T Stadium (64% Overs) from 2020 to 2024.
In the first few seasons of his tenure, the Cowboys offense powered that trend. However, a porous stop unit fueled the Over results over the last two seasons.
In 2024, Dallas pooped out fewer than 18 points per home game but bled a league-high 31.2 points against on the fast track in Arlington. Expect better offense and worse defense this fall… if that’s possible.
More NFL team previews
Want to see Jason's forecast for the rest of the NFL? Check out all of his NFL team previews below!
| Bills | Ravens | Texans | Broncos |
| Dolphins | Bengals | Colts | Chiefs |
| Patriots | Browns | Jaguars | Raiders |
| Jets | Steelers | Titans | Chargers |
| Cowboys | Bears | Falcons | Cardinals |
| Giants | Lions | Panthers | Rams |
| Eagles | Packers | Saints | 49ers |
| Commanders | Vikings | Buccaneers | Seahawks |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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