If sports bettors had their say, Dan Campbell would sit next to Henry Ford in terms of promoting prosperity in the Motor City.
In his four seasons as the Detroit Lions head coach, Campbell’s crew has covered regular-season spreads at a 69% clip. If that wasn’t impressive enough, Detroit has transformed from a feisty underdog to a massive favorite in that span. Yet the cash keeps flowing.
The Lions are 21-9 ATS as favorites the previous two seasons, including an 11-5 ATS mark last year when Detroit was the betting chalk in all but one game.
Can the Honolulu Blue keep bettors in the black in 2025?
Coaching departures, personnel changes, and a No. 2 schedule in SOS are working against that windfall this season. I find out if it’s safe to let it ride with the Pride in my Detroit Lions 2025 NFL betting preview.
Detroit Lions best bets
Read on for Jason's full analysis and Detroit Lions breakdown!
Detroit Lions odds for 2025
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +1100 |
| Win conference | +450 |
| Win division | +140 |
| Make playoffs | -185 |
| Over 10.5 wins | +100 |
| Under 10.5 wins | -130 |
Best futures bet: First in NFC North (+140)
The dark cloud hanging over the impending season is the loss of both coordinators (and a slew of assistants). The Lions’ dynamic attack watched Ben Johnson finally get his bag in Chicago while the defense bid farewell to Aaron Glenn, who’s now on mop-up duty in New York.
New coordinators John Morton (an assistant to Johnson in 2021) and Kelvin Sheppard (promoted from Glenn’s staff) aren’t looking to reinvent the wheel and will lean on one of the best two-way rosters in the NFL.
Detroit is still the class of the NFC North, and a softer home stretch of schedule than its divisional foes, along with an edge in rest, will go a long way after last year's snake-bitten season.
Detroit Lions at a glance: End of an ATS era?
Injuries took their toll on the Lions in 2024, most notably on defense in the home stretch of the calendar. Detroit kept fighting, and second, third, and fourth stringers stepped up, giving this stop unit excellent depth and experience with the starters healthy in 2025.
I do see the offense taking a step back in 2025. Johnson’s savvy playcalling and a deflated offensive line will stunt the efforts of Detroit’s loaded skill positions. Don’t get me wrong. This is still a potent attack, but…
The Lions are now darlings of the betting public, with opening spreads inflating every day we get closer to Sunday. Look-ahead lines have Detroit laying points in 12 games, with seven of those spreads already on the wrong side of a field goal.
What will win bets: Defense
If Detroit is going to keep cashing in against the spread, the stop unit has to be better than it was in the opening 12 weeks of 2024. And that was pretty damn good.
Before an outbreak of ailments in late November, the Lions were No. 2 in EPA allowed per play and giving up less than 17 points against. The key cogs of that defense are back, eventually.
New DC Kelvin Sheppard is preaching aggressiveness. That’s on par with Glenn, who brought blitz at the second-highest rate in 2024 and cooked up the fourth-highest pressure rate. All that chaos generated 24 takeaways, of which 16 were interceptions.
What will lose bets: Offensive line
There’s a steady rotation of nasty defenses on deck — most with fierce pass rushes — and that will test the Lions’ pass protection.
Detroit’s offensive line lost Frank Ragnow (retired) and Kevin Zeitler (free agency) from a unit that finished 2024 ranked 12th in pass block win rate at ESPN. The remaining O-line is shuffling this offseason, putting a lot of faith in Graham Glasgow to stay healthy as the new center.
Jared Goff isn’t afraid to stay in the pocket when pressure mounts, but his metrics slide significantly under duress. The 2024 Lions benefited from big plays, striking for 62 passes of 20-plus yards — third most.
Goff may not have the time to deliver those home runs if the protection buckles.
Detroit Lions schedule + spot bet: Good, bad, and ugly
At first glance, the Lions’ 2025 schedule is a recipe for disaster.
Take two scoops of the NFC North, toss in a handful of the NFC East, and pepper the remaining slate with the AFC North and playoff teams like Kansas City, the L.A. Rams, and Tampa Bay. Bake for 18 weeks and you get the second hardest sked in the NFL.
The toughest track is the opening seven weeks, which sees Detroit as an underdog in three of those games (at Green Bay, at Baltimore, at Kansas City) before a Week 8 bye.
That said, the final seven games offer a chance to finish strong as the Lions are home in four of those contests and only play outdoors in the cold once — a Week 18 trip to Chicago that may not matter.
Detroit also benefits from a strange schedule quirk that has the team playing five opponents facing short weeks due to Monday Night Football appearances. According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Lions have 13 more rest days than their opponents this season.
Spot bet: Week 12 vs. N.Y. Giants -8.5, 45.5
A matchup with the G-Men the week before Thanksgiving will feel like a breath of fresh air for Detroit. It’s also a nasty sandwich spot in which the Lions are laying serious lumber.
This home date with New York is a letdown spot after a possible NFC title game preview at Philadelphia on Sunday night in Week 11 and stinks of look-ahead, due to the short turnaround for the holiday Thursday to host Green Bay in Week 13.
This 8.5-point look-ahead spread is the biggest line on the Lions' board to start the season. Detroit has been a great bet as a favorite under Campbell (69%), but is just 3-4 ATS when laying more than a touchdown since 2021.
Laying off Goff
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Win MVP | +3300 |
| Lead NFL in Passing Yards | +1200 |
| Over 3899.5 Passing Yards | -110 |
| Under 3899.5 Passing Yards | -110 |
| Over 28.5 Passing Touchdowns | -110 |
| Under 28.5 Passing Touchdowns | -110 |
Jared Goff best bet: Under 28.5 Touchdown Passes (-110)
Goff posted 29, 30, and 37 touchdown passes in his three seasons with Ben Johnson calling the shots. Detroit had one of the most efficient red-zone attacks in that span, and creative playcalling led to plenty of home run scores as well.
Given Johnson’s exodus, a shuffle on the O-line, and some very stout defensive foes, I’m fading Goff’s touchdown prop in 2025.
Eight opponents ranked Top 15 in red zone defense in 2024, and new OC Morton could keep it simple on the goal line, leaning into the RB tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Player projections range from a high of 34 to a low of 25 TD throws from Goff.
Detroit Lions trend: Road rage
A big part of Campbell’s ATS success is spitting in the face of homefield advantage and covering at a near 71% clip on the road.
The Lions are a collective 24-10 ATS away from Motown since 2021, including a 7-1 ATS record on the road in 2024.
This year, the road sked features several teams in contention. Outside of NFC North travel, Detroit takes trips to Baltimore (+3.5), Cincinnati (-1.5), Kansas City (+3), Washington (+1.5), Philadelphia (+3.5), and the L.A. Rams (-1.5).
More NFL team previews
Want to see Jason's forecast for the rest of the NFL? Check out all of his NFL team previews below!
| Bills | Ravens | Texans | Broncos |
| Dolphins | Bengals | Colts | Chiefs |
| Patriots | Browns | Jaguars | Raiders |
| Jets | Steelers | Titans | Chargers |
| Cowboys | Bears | Falcons | Cardinals |
| Giants | Lions | Panthers | Rams |
| Eagles | Packers | Saints | 49ers |
| Commanders | Vikings | Buccaneers | Seahawks |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
