Free NFL Expert and Computer Picks For Every Game Jan. 21, 2026
NE
@
DEN
Sun, Jan 25 • 3:00 PM ET
DEN +5.5 (-115)
If you measure movement based on look-ahead lines and the current point spread for the AFC title game, Bo Nix's injury is worth as much as a touchdown to the spread. However, he's much easier to replace based on the simplicity of this Denver passing game. The Broncos don't throw beyond the sticks much and backup QB Jarrett Stidham isn't that much of a downgrade. Mix in Denver's elite defense, the Patriots' offensive struggles vs. Houston, as well and home field, thin air and coaching edge owned by the Broncos, and this game will be much tighter than the +5.5 spread would indicate.
DEN +5.5 (-115)
This spread has moved seven points from the look-ahead line due to Jarret Stidham replacing an injured Bo Nix at QB. That looks like an overreaction, given Stidham's familiarity with this offense and his solid track record. Across four career NFL starts, Stidham has completed 62.5% of his passes for 270 passing yards per game with a passer rating of 89.7. He won't be asked to do too much since the Broncos are anchored by their elite defense. They boast the league's best pass rush, which will make things tough for Patriots pivot Drake Maye, who has been sacked a whopping 57 times.
LA
@
SEA
Sun, Jan 25 • 6:30 PM ET
LA (+130)
There isn't much separating these teams, with Seattle finishing the regular season with the best DVOA in the league and L.A. in second. These NFC West foes split the season series, with the Rams losing a close game at Lumen Field and winning by two at home. This should be another tight contest, which has me leaning toward the side with the better quarterback (Matthew Stafford) and coach (Sean McVay) at plus money.
SEA -2.5 (-115)
With this spread Under the key number of 3, I’m siding with Seattle. The Seahawks posted the third-highest, single-season DVOA dating back to the 2018 campaign, and earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC has their roster better rested and healthier than the Rams. Los Angeles will also be travelling for a third consecutive game and the fifth time in six weeks.
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