NFL Picks

Dowdle has rushed for 1066 yards this year but most of that damage came earlier in the season when he rumbled for 130+ yards three times in a five-week stretch. He has rushed for less than 55 yards in five of his last seven games, averaging 47.3 rushing yards per game on just 3.4 yards per carry over that span. The Buccaneers are fifth in the NFL in defensive rush success rate and held Dowdle to 29 yards on nine rush attempts when these NFC South rivals clashed two weeks ago.

Dowdle injured his toe in last weekend’s loss to the Seattle Seahawks, and while he’s expected to play on Saturday, he has missed practice on the short week. If Dowdle is hampered, the Panthers need Hubbard to step up in this do-or-die matchup.

Head coach Dave Canales didn’t hide his faith in Hubbard, calling him a stud and a leader on the team when asked about the veteran running back. “I love Chuba,” Canales told the media. “Going to give him the ball some more and find ways for him to impact the game, because he’s just a guy that I really trust.”

Hubbard’s Week 18 projections range from 27 rushing yards to 34 yards, with most models north of 30 yards on the ground. Given Dowdle’s injury and Canales’ promise of more touches, I believe the ceiling is high for Carolina’s Canadian-born running back in Week 18.

The Seahawks face the 49ers on Saturday night with the No. 1 seed in the NFC on the line. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the odds-on favorite to win the Offensive Player of the Year Award and I'm expecting him to get fed the ball in this crucial game. The third-year wideout leads the NFL in receiving yards (1709) and ranks fourth in receptions (113). San Fran is 24th in the league in defensive dropback EPA and 26th in receptions allowed to wide receivers (195). JSN has snagged at least eight receptions in 10 of 16 games this year, including the season opener against the Niners when he reeled in nine of 13 targets. 

With everything on the line, Seattle isn’t going to get creative, especially near the goal line, where Zach Charbonnet has taken over. I’d be interested in Kenneth Walker at 30 cents longer, but the reality is Charbonnet is matching him in overall touches while completely dominating the red-zone work. Last week, Charbonnet handled six of the seven red-zone carries, and over the last three games, he has taken 10 of the team’s 11 red-zone rushes. He’s turned that volume into three touchdowns and 23 yards, while Walker has just two yards and no scores on his opportunities. At this usage, Charbonnet is playable up to +110.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. Opposing offenses have averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game versus the Packers defense this year: 10th-most in football.. The leading projections forecast Josh Oliver to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing attack in this contest (15.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.5% in games he has played).. Josh Oliver grades out as one of the most reliable receivers in football among TEs, hauling in a stellar 82.9% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 75th percentile.. Josh Oliver rates as one of the most effective receivers in the NFL among TEs, averaging a terrific 10.04 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 91st percentile.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. Opposing offenses have averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game versus the Packers defense this year: 10th-most in football.. Justin Jefferson has run a route on 97.2% of his offense's passing plays this year, putting him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.. In this contest, Justin Jefferson is predicted by the projections to find himself in the 97th percentile among WRs with 9.6 targets.. This year, the poor Green Bay Packers pass defense has conceded a monstrous 67.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 7th-highest rate in football.

This number is over priced because of a contract incentive for Tony Pollard, but this Jags defense is incredible against the run and needs to win to win the division. 

It’s a good time to back the Titans’ offense, which has scored more than 110 points over its last four games and gets favorable weather to close out the season. Jacksonville can be competitive, but there’s also a real chance the Jaguars limit or pull starters in this spot. This is an excellent price on a true WR1. Rookie Elic Ayomanor led the team last week in routes, snap share, and targets, and cashed a red-zone TD at +400. Cam Ward has taken a clear step forward in December, and this number is being priced like a WR4 in a mediocre offense. I’d buy this to +300 or +330.

The Texans only scored 20 points in their last matchup with the Colts and Indy has held their opponent to less points in each divisional rematch this season. 

Houston still has plenty to play for. The Texans remain alive in the division race, and even if that falls short, holding onto the five seed is important to avoid a first-round matchup against a 12-win team. While Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel scored last week, their usage has been volatile and difficult to rely on. Nico Collins remains the clear focal point of this offense and now draws a favorable setup against an Indianapolis team starting a late-round rookie quarterback and playing for nothing. That opens the door for short fields and extra scoring chances. Collins has been priced much shorter than this at points throughout the season, making this number attractive. I’d buy him to +140.

Despite the poor defense and propensity to hit the Over, I’m taking the Under. Dallas ranks fourth in scoring offense at 28.4 points per game, but New York is just 21st at 21.7 points. Thousand-yard receiver Wan’Dale Robinson and reliable tight end Theo Johnson will be out, and even against a porous Dallas defense, Jaxson Dart will have a tough time moving the ball with such limited options. On the other side of the field, the Cowboys’ running backs are banged up, and the team could be down to third-stringer Jaydon Blue leading the backfield. It’s unclear how much the starters will play for either team in this one, and it’s in the Giants’ best interest to lose. I won’t bet on a high-scoring matchup.

The Giants finally got the passing game going last week, and Wan’Dale Robinson was the clear focal point. He caught 11 passes on 14 targets, while no other New York receiver saw more than two looks. Robinson now sits at 92 catches and nine touchdowns on the season, and even with a rib injury, the usage is impossible to ignore. With milestones within reach and a favorable matchup against the Dallas defense, this price is too generous. I’m buying Robinson down to +150/+155.

Shedeur Sanders and this Cleveland offense should be motivated to put a stamp on this game against a Bengals defense that has been getting carved up. Harold Fannin Jr. has been the preferred option to back, but he exited Week 17 with a groin injury, which opened the door for Jerry Jeudy to step up. Jeudy led the team with seven targets and ran a route on 100% of the dropbacks. He isn’t facing real competition from the wideout depth behind him, and if Fannin is limited or out, Jeudy becomes the clear focal point of this offense. At +300, it’s a strong number that I’d play down to +220, especially for a team that can’t run the ball right now.

The Under is 4-3 in Bengals' games with Burrow at QB and 4-2 when the Browns are road underdogs.

The New Orleans Saints might be eliminated from the playoffs but young players like Audric Estime will be heavily motivated to prove themselves and earn a larger role moving forward. With Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller sidelined by injuries, Estime made his first career start last week and rushed for 94 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries. He'll be given another opportunity to carry the load on Sunday against a Falcons squad that can't stop the run. Atlanta is 26th in the league in defensive rush EPA and rushing yards allowed per game (127.4). 

At age 37, Cousins has shown over the last few weeks that there’s still a little left in the tank. Whether Sunday is his last game as a Falcon or not, look for him to finish the season with a bang.

Cousins found a rhythm in the Week 15 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with 373 passing yards and three touchdowns, and threw for two more scores 10 days later against the Arizona Cardinals. With Drake London and Kyle Pitts both listed as questionable but expected to play, I’ll take these plus odds for 2+ TD passes from Cousins this weekend. 

Week 18 is the final chance for some players to hit contract incentives. Patriots TE Hunter Henry has logged 55 receptions this year and will earn a $250,000 bonus if he hits the 60-catch milestone. The Pats can secure a higher playoff seed with a win and have confirmed that MVP front-runner Drake Maye will start at QB on Sunday against the Dolphins. Miami is 31st in the league in defensive dropback success rate and ranks 30th in receptions allowed to tight ends (102). 

The Patriots’ defense isn’t elite, but they’re still doing a good job of keeping the points against them down, and with Miami Dolphins rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers under center, the same should happen here. 

On the offensive side of the ball, this team is a juggernaut. The offense ranks sixth in DVOA, and with Drake Maye an MVP candidate, they are tough to beat.

Strong offensive line play is at the heart of it, and they’re finding ways to put up big numbers, and are the fifth-highest scoring team in the NFL with 28.3 points per game.

With the Patriots needing the result here and playing on their home field, this should be a cover for Mike Vrabel’s team.

This Arizona Cardinals team has had poor play and have lost eight games in a row. They’ve covered the spread just once in their past eight games. The Rams, despite a poor couple of weeks, are still tied top for covering the spread in the most games, 11, this season. Even if the Los Angeles Rams are resting players, there's a strong chance for them to cover the spread at SoFi.

The Rams are 11-5 ATS this season and know a win could help them get a better playoff matchup in the WC Round.

Dan Campbell will try to get his team up for this game, but I’m not sure how effective that will be, how much his stars will ultimately play, or how much it even matters if the Lions are at 100% on Sunday. Right now, Chicago is the better team. With a small spread at home, I’m taking the Bears to cover.

Olamide Zaccheaus was a late scratch last week due to illness and should be good to go by Sunday. Jahdae Walker absorbed most of his work, running routes on 71% of dropbacks and finishing with 30 yards and a red-zone target. If Zaccheaus returns, he’s expected to reclaim a larger role, especially with Rome Odunze potentially missing his fifth straight game. Chicago is still playing for the No. 2 seed, and Ben Johnson gets another shot at his former team. The Bears torched Detroit in Week 2, hanging 52 points while Chicago WRs piled up 234 yards and two TDs. There’s some risk the illness lingers, but with TD prices already moving on Luther Burden and Coltson Loveland, this is a spot worth monitoring closely through the week.

The Eagles are expected to roll with backups, and with Dallas Goedert limited in practice, Grant Calcaterra is in line for TE1 snaps and a potential bump in passing-game usage. Backup quarterbacks and tight ends are a profitable combination in these late-season spots, especially with so much uncertainty across the slate. Projected starter Tanner McKee isn’t shy about throwing the ball either, dropping back 41 times in a similar Week 18 situation last season.

The Commanders should struggle to move the ball against the Birds, who held Washington to 10 points until the final two minutes a few weeks ago. They only had 90 rushing yards and 130 passing yards in that game as well.

The Birds are resting up for the playoffs, and the Commanders can’t wait for the offseason. There should be a distinct lack of scoring on Sunday in Philadelphia.

Buffalo is going to tread lightly with James Cook and Josh Allen in Week 18, both TEs questionable coming in, and that means Johnson becomes much more involved, especially in the red zone. He’s a threat on the ground and through the air and with Trubisky potentially taking over under center, the Bills passing game will get simple. Jets defense is a dud and one of the worst RZ defenses in the NFL and New York has allowed 25 total TDs to RBs – rushing and receiving – which is most in the NFL. 

The Bills are still playing for seeding and will play their last game at Highmark Stadium, but there’s a real chance some starters get limited or rested, which makes TD props in this spot a bit risky, especially with a late kickoff. That said, Khalil Shakir has plenty to play for. He’s one TD away from unlocking a $150,000 bonus and draws about as soft a matchup as it gets. The Jets have lost four straight games by 20-plus points, and Shakir remains Buffalo’s highest-volume pass catcher. He should see enough run to contribute early or be given a chance to hit the bonus, even if Josh Allen is limited. There’s risk betting it early, but the angle makes sense.

This is a strong price in a game that could feature some of the lowest scoring on the Week 18 slate. It’s the Kenny Pickett version of a struggling Raiders offense, but Michael Mayer was heavily involved last week, with Brock Bowers shut down. He led the team with 10 targets, caught nine balls for 89 yards, and saw a red-zone look, even if it didn’t turn into a score. The matchup against Kansas City is tough, but the game being indoors helps, and the price more than accounts for the risk. For what could be the most involved pass catcher in this offense, it’s worth a look.

The Kansas City Chiefs may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup quarterback Chris Oladokun.. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.5% pass rate.. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.. The Kansas City O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.. This year, the deficient Las Vegas Raiders defense has surrendered a monstrous 73.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 6th-biggest rate in the NFL.

The Broncos have allowed 15 or more completions in 12 of 16 games this season, and I'm anticipating Los Angeles to set Lance up for success with short and intermediate throws Sunday afternoon. And, with the Bolts a huge underdog, look for Lance to continue airing it out throughout. Plus, opponents have averaged the sixth-most pass attempts per game (36.6) against the Broncos, and all we're asking for here is four completions a quarter.

The Broncos RB2 will likely get touches in what appears to be a cake walk against a Bolts team resting the starters. With the spread trending toward two TDS, Denver will give some extra love to its reserves and McLaughlin is a shifty back who can hit big plays. He had a season-high seven carries vs Kansas City last week and builds on that in Week 18, including his second score of the season. 

Since Pittsburgh's bye in Week 5, Aaron Rodgers has completed more than 20.5 passes in eight of 11 games. He's also eclipsed this number in each of his last four contests, including a Week 14 clash at Baltimore when he completed 23 of 34 passes for 284 yards. Baltimore's defense has been a passing funnel with the Ravens 28th in the league in completions allowed per game (23.0). The Steelers are 3.5-point underdogs which implies a passing game script and while the temperature will be freezing, there will be clear skies with barely any wind.

Gainwell has been a big part of this passing game in the second half of the season and steps up in terms of target priority with Metcalf suspended and Darnell Washington out, and Calvin Austin banged up. Rodgers has thrown to the RB six or more times in five of the last seven games, with Gainwell recording five or more receptions in five of those games. That includes six grabs on seven balls his way vs Baltimore. Projections for Week 18 range from 4.4 to 5 catches. Some other books asking -114 on the same Over.