NFL Picks

Kyren Williams averages 73.6 rushing yards per game and has rushed for more than 70 yards in six of his last seven contests. There are a couple reasons why the O/U on his rushing yards is set so low for Thursday; Seattle has a strong run defense and backup RB Blake Corum has been cutting into his touches. That said, Williams picked up 91 yards on 12 carries when he faced this Seahawks stop unit in Week 11. He's also more talented and consistent than Corum which should lead to heavier usage in a game of this magnitude. In addition, there's rain and heavy wind in the forecast which could lead to Sean McVay leaning on his rushing attack. 

Parkinson is coming off a game against the Lions where he had season highs in targets (7), receptions (5), and receiving yards (75). Parkinson has seen his role in the passing game expand with Tyler Higbee on the IR. The tight end has logged 4+ receptions in four of his last six contests and he has a juicy matchup this week against the Seahawks. Seattle has a strong pass defense but is vulnerable to tight ends, allowing the second-most receptions and the fourth-most receiving yards to the position.

The Eagles offense is trying to build momentum down the home stretch and Washington won't present much push back defensively. The Commanders have allowed five passing touchdowns the last two games and Hurts shredded this man-heavy secondary last season. Philly's running backs are banged up, so we could see more passing from the Eagles on Saturday. Player projections all lean toward two touchdown throws from Hurts against a Washington red zone defense giving up touchdowns at a 76.92% clip the past three outings.

Brown stung the Commies in their three meetings last season, going for 65, 95, and 97 yards all while drawing eight or more targets against Dan Quinn’s man-heavy schemes. Brown is the fourth best WR vs man at PFF. He’s been putting up big numbers and had 41 yards on two catches vs Vegas last week before getting pulled in the 4Q of that blowout. Most models sit north of 70 yards receiving on Saturday, facing a Washington defense that’s terrible against the pass.

Without the star pass rusher, this Packers defensive line is far less dangerous and runs into a Chicago offensive line ranked among the best pass protectors and run blockers in the NFL. The big bodies up front are No. 1 in pass block win rate and No. 4 in run block win rate at ESPN — one of only five O-lines to rank Top 10 in both metrics. Williams, who averaged only 5.2 yards per attempt in Week 14, will now have more time to allow deeper plays to develop. And the Bears’ run game is picking up steam. It rushed for 138 yards on 32 carries against Green Bay and is averaging five yards per carry over the past three games. The short turnaround not only compounds the Packers' injuries but puts the schedule squeeze on the Cheeseheads, having to play back-to-back road games and three away games in the last four weeks.

The projections expect Josh Jacobs to accrue 3.2 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among running backs.. With an exceptional 10.8% Target Rate (86th percentile) this year, Josh Jacobs has been as one of the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume in the league.. With an excellent 19.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (89th percentile) this year, Josh Jacobs places among the top RBs in the pass game in football.. When it comes to linebackers rushing the passer, Chicago's LB corps has been dreadful this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

The Under is 5-2 in the Bills' road games and 3-1 in Browns home games as underdog

The Bills are inconsistent and have struggled against top rated defenses

Tampa Bay has had a mini bye to get over a Thursday Night Football loss to Atlanta and enters Week 16 with its full arsenal of offensive weapons. The Buccaneers put up 338 yards and 28 first downs on TNF, averaging 5.5 yards per play and going 3 for 3 in the red zone. They just sucked on defense. Tampa Bay allowed close to 500 yards of offense from the Falcons, who scored 29 points. Carolina’s defense was almost as bad in a Week 15 flop at New Orleans. The Panthers made the Saints look good, with NOLA racking up 337 yards, 27 first downs, and 6.7 yards per play. The Panthers get to come home this Sunday, where their offense averages over six points more than on the road. This Over/Under sits just short of the key number of 46 points and feels too short considering the poor defenses we’ve seen from these divisional foes. 

The leading projections forecast the Carolina Panthers as the 7th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 54.2% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to see just 126.9 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.

The past few weeks, L.A. has found another gear. The Chargers aren’t just making it tough to move the chains, they’re making it dangerous. They’ve recorded 11 sacks, seven interceptions, and forced three fumbles (recovering one of those loose balls) during their three-game winning streak. The Bolts are a Top 5 passing defense and their zone-centric schemes don’t allow anything deep, checking rival QBs to the fewest total air yards and allowing the fourth lowest completion rate in the land. Dallas’ offense is reliant on over-the-top shots, especially with the way the Cowboys’ defense hemorrhages yards and often has this team involved in shootouts. The Cowboys are a Bottom 5 pass defense no matter how the advanced metrics slice it.

Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.5 plays per game.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. The Cowboys defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (36.9 per game) this year.. Keenan Allen ranks as one of the top WRs in the game this year, averaging an impressive 4.5 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 93rd percentile.

A running game script is suggested by the Saints being a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest.. The predictive model expects the Saints as the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Opposing offenses have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game against the Jets defense this year: 9th-fewest in the league.

A running game script is suggested by the Saints being a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest.. The predictive model expects the Saints as the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Opposing offenses have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game against the Jets defense this year: 9th-fewest in the league.. Juwan Johnson's talent in generating extra yardage have diminished this season, notching a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 3.88 figure last season.. This year, the daunting Jets defense has given up the 10th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing TEs: a feeble 7.3 yards.

Each of the last four Giants games have gone Over the total. 

The Giants are 0-3 against the spread this season in games where they were either favored or underdogs by less than three points.

The Chiefs may be out of the playoff picture, but there’s no sign they’re packing it in. Isiah Pacheco’s role near the goal line remains encouraging after he handled five of the team’s seven red-zone carries last week and led the backfield with 11 total rushes. The efficiency wasn’t there, but the matchup improves significantly against Tennessee. Losing a more creative quarterback in the red zone and turning to Gardner Minshew should also funnel more looks to the run game. I make the fair price on this closer to +190 to +200.

A rushing game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 3.5-point favorite in this game.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Travis Kelce has been a much smaller piece of his offense's passing attack this year (19.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (24.6%).. Travis Kelce's 4.8 adjusted catches per game this season represents a remarkable reduction in his receiving skills over last season's 6.1 figure.

Whether there’s a QB change or not, Achane is getting the rock against the Bengals. Miami gets to come back to sunny Florida after a bad effort in the cold at Pittsburgh Monday. Achane ran just 12 times for 60 yards, with the Fins having to go pass heavy playing from behind. And that’s just not what Miami wants. This Dolphins attack has been the most run-centric offense in the second half of the season and takes on the Bengals brutal run stop. Cincy sits at the bottom of most run stop measurements and has allowed the second most runs of 20 yards or more on the season. Achane had gone Over 80 yards in four straight before MNF.  

This year, the porous Cincinnati Bengals defense has been torched for a massive 72.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 9th-worst rate in the NFL.. The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in the league this year in defending receivers.

Lawrence has a big “prove it” game in Denver and takes on an elite defense that gets even stingier in the red zone. We’re seeing him have more freedom to tuck and run in Liam Coen’s offense, which has led to six rushing touchdowns, including one last week against the Jets. He’s third among QB in RZ carries with 19 behind Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, yet doesn’t carry the same ATTD prices as those dual-threats

The Over is 5-2 in Jacksonville's last seven, and has hit in Denver's last three. And I love it to hit again here.

Jacksonville hasn’t been held under 25 points since the bye week, and Denver’s run defense has been leaky the past few weeks, and that will let the Jaguars move the ball. Add in Little’s leg and they should score anytime they get near midfield.

Nix won’t push the ball downfield like some teams do against the Jaguars, but Denver’s quick-pass scheme will help him keep drives alive and negate some of the pass rush ability of the Jaguars. He’ll also put together enough drives against a defense that struggles to get stops on third and five or less.

 

The Cardinals are fifth in the NFL in pace, while the Falcons are seventh, and with both teams eliminated from the playoffs, expect unenthusiastic tackling down the stretch. Arizona is 8-2 O/U in its 10 games while Atlanta has gone Over the total in six of its last seven. The Falcons are 23rd in the league in defensive dropback success rate, which is bad news against a pass-happy Arizona attack that has been slinging the ball with Jacoby Brissett. Meanwhile, the Cardinals rank 31st in defensive success rate and have surrendered more than 40 points in four of their last six games. They are 25th in DVOA against the run, so Bijan Robinson will rip off big plays on the ground.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to see 136.1 total plays run: the most out of all the games this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The leading projections forecast Kirk Cousins to throw 36.3 passes this week, on balance: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks.. The Atlanta O-line ranks as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.. As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Arizona's safety corps has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in the league.

At a -14-point disadvantage, the Raiders are huge underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Raiders to pass on 66.6% of their opportunities: the greatest frequency on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The leading projections forecast Geno Smith to throw 38.6 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-most among all QBs.

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 2nd-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.24 seconds per play.. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.. C.J. Stroud's 64.7% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a noteable improvement in his passing precision over last year's 61.0% figure.. This year, the porous Las Vegas Raiders defense has allowed a staggering 73.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 7th-highest rate in the NFL.. As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Las Vegas's group of safeties has been awful this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in football.

Gibbs has seen his rushing output tempered by recent games turning into shootouts and running into some stiff defenses. He’s done plenty of damage through the air but with Detroit a touchdown home fave to Pittsburgh, game script says more running for the Lions. The Steelers run stop isn’t great, sitting in the back half of the league in most metrics and giving up about five yards per carry over the past three games. Now they have a short turnaround with travel to Detroit. Gibbs projections flirting with 80 or more yards with a ceiling of 87. 

The Steelers are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.. The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.9 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. With an impressive 2.2 adjusted catches per game (80th percentile) this year, Jaylen Warren ranks among the leading running backs in the pass game in the league.

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to call the 5th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the best safety corps in football this year in defending receivers.

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to call the 5th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the best safety corps in football this year in defending receivers.

The Colts are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year.. When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Colts ranks as the best in football this year.. When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, San Francisco's unit has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in the NFL.

The Colts are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year.. The leading projections forecast Michael Pittman to total 7.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.. Michael Pittman is positioned as one of the leading WRs in the league this year, averaging an outstanding 4.5 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 93rd percentile.

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.