NFL Picks

Buffalo's biggest weakness is its run defense, but the Broncos won't capitalize. Since losing RB J.K. Dobbins to an injury in Week 10, Denver ranks 25th in rush EPA with R.J. Harvey churning out just 3.4 yards per carry. Bo Nix will also have a tough time throwing against a Bills defense that holds foes to 159.6 passing yards per game on 5.8 ypa. Buffalo's ability to throw downfield will also be limited due to a bevy of injuries at WR, and Denver has an elite stop unit. 

The Bills will have to shorten their passing game and rely on underneath throws with their WR corps decimated by injuries. That should lead to plenty of work for tight end Dawson Knox. Denver has a strong pass defense but is vulnerable to tight ends, allowing the ninth-most receiving yards per game (59.7) to the position. Knox has logged 24+ receiving yards in six of his last seven games, averaging 36.0 ypg over that span. He could get even more targets than usual with fellow TE Dalton Kincaid banged up. 

Christian McCaffrey is averaging just 3.8 yards per rush attempt in the regular season and playoffs and hasn't broken many big runs. McCaffrey's longest rush has been below 11.5 yards in nine of his last 15 games. That includes Week 18 against the Seahawks when his best carry went for a meager five yards. Seattle has the league's top-rated run defense and has held foes to an explosive run rate of just 6.7% — easily the lowest number in the NFL. In addition, the Seahawks are 7-point faves which indicates a passing game script for the Niners and fewer carries for C-Mac.

Charbonnet saw his touches surge down the stretch. He carried the rock 17 times for 74 yards against San Francisco in the season finale and logged 18 carries for 110 yards against Carolina the week before. It's worth noting that Charbonnet has faced 8+ defenders in the box on 35.3% of his runs — the third-highest number in the NFL. However, San Fran's defense has used a stack box a league-low 15.6% of the time. The Niners are 31st in the league in defensive rush success rate and have struggled to make tackles in the second level due to a cluster of injuries at linebacker.

The door remains open for Kirk to see an uptick in targets again against the Pats with No. 1 wideout Nico Collins in concussion protocol and unlikely to play after missing practice Thursday.  Kirk went good to the tune of eight catches for 144 yards on nine targets last week against the Steelers in the Wild Card Round, and New England finished 25th in pass defense DVOA during the regular season. He’ll also have a size advantage against Pats slot cornerback Marcus Jones, and Jones surrendered a 75% catch rate and 113.9 NFL passer rating against this season. 

Houston needed the defense to bail out the offense in Pittsburgh but the Patriots are a much more dynamic team. New England's defense is fantastic both stopping the run and slowing down the pass. C.J. Stroud will struggle with the elements and miss Nico Collins, who is likely out with a concussion. When Houston's pressure mounts, Drake Maye can make plays with his legs, unlike Aaron Rodgers, and the Pats can pick up gains on the ground with the two-headed beast at running back. New England wins a low-scoring grinder, which is why I'm leaning ML rather than lay the field goal with the Patriots.

Stafford has thrown just nine picks in the regular season and playoffs but eight of those have come on the road. Meanwhile, the Bears defense is filled with ballhawks who helped them lead the NFL with 23 interceptions. The weather will also make it tough for Stafford who is used to playing indoors and will be throwing into heavy wind with gusts approaching 30 mph. He also has a sprained index finger on his throwing hand which could lead to issues gripping the football in 20-degree temps.

Colston Loveland had sky-high expectations after Chicago selected him with the 10th pick in the 2025 draft. The rookie tight end took a couple of months to earn the trust of his coaches but has become Caleb Williams' favorite target down the stretch. Loveland has racked up 6+ receptions and more than 90 receiving yards in three-straight games, reeling in eight of 15 targets for 137 yards in last week's win against Green Bay. With wideouts Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore hindered by lower-body injuries, Caleb Williams will rely on his security blanket TE on a cold and windy night at Soldier Field.