NFL Picks

Kansas City and Philadelphia have a surplus of weapons on offense, but we also have two very stellar stop units, headlined by two nasty pass rushes. The Big Game has pumped out the Unders in recent years, with each of the last four games staying below the total.

Since Week 10, he’s had nine touchdowns across nine games and has been held out of the end zone just twice over that stretch. The Eagles have also been giving every one of their three running backs carries in the red zone making it hard to take any of them. 

Kadarius Toney struggles to stay on the field and is dealing with an ankle injury on top of a hamstring issue that he dealt with later in the regular season. Moore would likely get Toney’s snaps as the No. 3 if JuJu Smith-Schuster returns from a knee injury, but that isn't a given either.

No pass-catcher had more red-zone opportunities than Kelce at 38 and it isn’t even close. Stefon Diggs had 25, Ja’Marr Chase had 31, and Justin Jefferson had 31, while the Bears’ had just 37 total red-zone opportunities to all of their receivers and tight ends combined. Kelce gets a ton of work in the red zone but it’s another level above other elite receiving talent.

This is the sort of bet where you ideally don't want to grab anything at below +300 since there are so many legitimate options. I'm picking blue, which has been the color of choice in three of the last four years and "Cool Blue" was the most popular flavor sold in the US when a study was done in late 2020.

There will be no shortage of analysis for the Chiefs and Eagles in the ramp-up to Super Bowl LVII, with plenty of pros and cons for either side. However, when it comes to getting the best of the number, I strongly feel Kansas City +2 is a great spread bet right now. Not only is the market trending back toward Kansas City (some books as low as KC +1), but we’re getting Mahomes & Co. as underdogs on the other side of the key number of one, which is why I’m taking the points instead of grabbing Kansas City on the moneyline outright. 

A little shocked to see this at 9.5 and at -110 vig at PointsBet. Hurts drew plenty of called runs against the Niners (as well as those trademark QB sneaks), and he also found himself running from the pass rush a few times. Same thing goes in the Super Bowl, with the Eagles' zone-read offense leaning into its dual-threat QB and taking on an aggressive Chiefs front four. The last time Kansas City faced an offense like this and a QB this dangerous, it gave up 107 rushing yards to Lamar Jackson way back in Week 2 of last season

Hurts drew plenty of called runs against the Niners (as well as those trademark QB sneaks), and he also found himself running from the pass rush a few times. Same thing goes in the Super Bowl, with the Eagles' zone-read offense leaning into its dual-threat QB and taking on an aggressive Chiefs front four. The last time Kansas City faced an offense like this and a QB this dangerous, it gave up 107 rushing yards to Lamar Jackson way back in Week 2 of last season. 

The O/U on Hurts' passing yards total is set as high as 247.5, and with the tendency of the public to love betting Overs, don't be surprised to see this number get even higher before kickoff. That said, the sharp play might be on the Under when you consider the matchup and Philadelphia's tendency to lean on its ground game. 

Extremely positive game scripts have kept Quez Watkins’ role minimal this postseason. But we could see a lot more from the Eagles’ No. 3 receiver vs Kansas City, and he's paying decent plus-money odds for two or more catches. Watkins has run just 23 routes in the postseason across two games, but averaged 20.7 per game over the season with a 14.3% target share. Between Weeks 8 and 18, Watkins saw at least two targets in each game that Jalen Hurts started, and averaged 2.9 catches per game.

Kansas City held Joe Burrow to his worst quarterback rating since Week 1 and Trevor Lawrence’s 74.4 QB rating was his third-lowest mark on the season. This is not a cake-walk of a matchup for Hurts and Brown and although I think it will be tough to contain Brown (who finished third in receptions of 30+ yards and ranked seventh in the league in deep targets per game), a six-catch game against a defense that has an extra week to prepare is less probable.

Oddsmakers are expecting a close contest for the Super Bowl, and unless the Eagles manage to pull ahead significantly I don't see Gainwell getting many carries. After all, he's still Philly's No. 3 running option after Miles Sanders and Jalen Hurts, while veteran Boston Scott is still in the picture. Scott had six carries in each of the Eagles' playoff contests and has seen an offensive snap share of around 30% in their last four games. 

Including both the regular season and the playoffs, Goedert has caught five or more balls in eight of the 12 games in which he’s played alongside Hurts this season. In the most important game of the year, Hurts will need to involve his secondary targets even more.

With Gay banged up and the Eagles running a lot of plays, this could be a big volume game for Bolton. Factoring in the extra work with Hurts, the Eagles’ success on the ground, and a heavily-targeted tight end mean more tackle opportunities than normal at the Super Bowl. 

Isiah Pacheco is taking over the Kansas City backfield. He’s playing on both rushing and passing downs, and set a season-high in snap share vs. the Bengals at 57%. We’re starting to see some more trust with Pacheco in the passing game, as he had a season-high six targets, five catches, and 59 receiving yards in the AFC Championship Game. Jerick McKinnon is dealing with ankle injuries, which isn’t great news for his stock. This is going to be Pacheco’s backfield.

The best way to play this line is to back the Over. It’s a number he’s exceeded on 10 occasions this season and narrowly missed adding an 11th in the Divisional Round, falling just a yard short. He’s become more and more integral to the success of this offense as the season's gone on and the numbers bear that out. He went Over 61.5 receiving yards just three times in the first 11 games but has done it six times in the last eight.