NFL Picks

 Here’s to hoping we can get just one yard from Jake Bobo's “Open Arms” in Super Bowl LX. Bobo caught two balls in the regular season, but in two postseason outings, the 6-foot-4 receiver has been targeted three times for two catches, one of which was a 17-yard touchdown in the NFC Championship Game. Bobo, utilized more for his run blocking, is a sneaky option in Klint Kubiak’s play-action schemes and has shown good hands and solid route running in his limited usage.

He’s been especially huge for the Patriots in the playoffs, but despite reclaiming the RB1 role, he’s yet to find the end zone in the tournament. He finished the regular season with at least one tuddy in three straight, crossing the goal line a collective six times in those outings. We’re seeing the sweetest ATTD price on Rhamondre in quite a while, with his touchdown odds around +135 in the past month. Player projections for Super Bowl LX put a Stevenson touchdown between 0.49 and 0.83, with my number at 0.59. That makes the +160 return on a Big Game strike very appealing, especially with the way he’s blossomed as a receiving threat over the past eight games.

Stevenson has cleared his rushing total in eight straight games, and despite some playoff adjustments, the market didn’t move his number after a 25-carry, 71-yard effort in the snow against Denver. That’s a surprising lack of respect for a back who has dominated the workload. Stevenson accounts for 77% of New England’s running back rushing yards this postseason and handled 90% of the RB opportunities versus the Broncos. If the Patriots run the ball 25+ times again, it’s almost all going through him. He’s already topped this number against elite run defenses in the Los Angeles Chargers (4th in EPA/rush), Houston Texans (3rd), and Denver Broncos (8th). The Seattle Seahawks are a tough matchup, but Stevenson has faced the best and continues to earn more trust each week. In a competitive game script, he should be extremely busy.

Maye broke off big gains with his legs versus the Los Angeles Chargers (37-yard long) and Denver Broncos (28-yard long) and has recorded a run of at least 14 yards in four of his last six games going back to Week 15’s showdown with the Buffalo Bills – another stingy pass defense. The Seahawks haven’t faced a quarterback as mobile as Maye in a long time. You’d have to go back to a Week 9 matchup with Jayden Daniels. Since then, the Seahawks have defended a slew of pocket passers and veteran QBs, yet plenty of those less-than-spry passers picked up significant gains on the ground. 

The Seahawks have the fifth-best DVOA (regular season and playoffs) since that advanced stat has been tracked back to 1978. The Patriots aren't on that level and have benefited from a weak schedule. Drake Maye has done a great job despite being surrounded by subpar talent but that's been exposed in the playoffs with New England averaging just 4.3 yards per play. Maye will be pummeled by a Seattle stop unit that led the league in defensive EPA. On other side of the ball, Sam Darnold is playing the best football of his career and is surrounded by weapons in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, and Kenneth Walker III. They'll put up enough points to cover this spread.

Sam Darnold threw for 4,048 yards in the regular season despite often playing with a positive game script. He went ballistic in the NFC Conference Championship, completing 25-of-36 passes for 346 yards. New England is stout against the run so Seattle will likely air it out against a defense that ranked 15th in dropback success rate. The Pats haven't allowed many passing yards over the last month but have often played in poor weather while facing a slew of terrible QBs including Brady Cook, Quinn Ewers, and Jarret Stidham. They'll have a much tougher time containing Darnold who was named a Pro Bowler for the second-straight year.

This a very modest number given his body of work. He cleared this mark in 14 of 17 regular-season games, averaging 258.4 yards per game, so don't let his playoffs numbers throw you off the scent. With no winter weather in San Francisco, Maye should resemble the MVP-level passer he was all season. Seattle’s defense has allowed big games recently, including 374 and 457 yards to Stafford and 277 to Brock Purdy. The Patriots’ schedule gets criticized, but Seattle’s recent quarterback competition hasn’t exactly been elite.
 
 
 

The Seahawks' offense is clicking on all cylynders with 41 and 31 points scored in two playoff games. While their defense will get a lot of praise coming into the game, they're vulnerable to getting lit up as we just saw the Rams put up 479 yards of offense on them. As for the Patriots, winter weather and poor quarterback play by the opponent has resulted in low-scoring games during their playoff run, but that changes here with Sam Darnold in good form and normal conditions expected in San Francisco.

Kenneth Walker has been going off in the receiving yards department in the Seattle Seahawks’ most important stretch of the season. Not only has he topped this mark in four of his last five games, he’s also proving to have a high ceiling as he’s averaging 36.8 receiving yards in this five-game span. With Zach Charbonnet out for the season, Walker will have heavy workload vs a Patriots team that allowed the sixth most receptions to running backs in the regular season.

Stevenson is coming off a 25-carry game and has been the clear focal point of the offense since Week 18. Over that four-game stretch, he has topped 320 rushing yards and cleared this number in every game, including matchups against three elite defenses. The workload is all his, with Henderson reduced to an afterthought, as Stevenson handled 90% of the RB opportunities against the Broncos. Even if Seattle sells out to stop the run, Stevenson has already proven he can move the pile versus the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos.