NFL Picks

The Texans are without WR2 Tank Dell and face a well-rested and prepared Kansas City squad that has fully turned the switch to postseason mode. That includes the defense, which has ranked Top 5 in the last third of the schedule — just in time for another Super Bowl run. I don’t see any reason why I would back the Texans at this current spread and I would likely need +10 or more to think twice about it. I’m leaning toward Kansas City -8 now, knowing this will close much higher come the weekend.

Houston’s offense has been a mess all season and entered the playoffs as the lowest rated attack in many advanced metrics. Stroud isn’t one for winter weather or the elements at all. In his short pro career, the Texans quarterback sees his passing prowess nosedive in outdoor games. He’s 5-6 SU with a passer rating of 83.8 and a completion clip short of 59%, averaging only 6.6 yards per attempt in open-air venues. The Texans defense will have its hands full slowing down Mahomes and the laundry list of weapons on the KC depth chart. That’s what we saw in that Week 16 meeting, with Kansas City rushing for 124 yards on top of 251 yards passing. The Chiefs dominated the football for almost 34 minutes of possession in that win and will slow things down with a run-heavy playbook in the second half, should they hold a comfortable lead in the final 30 minutes.

Stroud’s 282 passing yards in the win over the Chargers was his biggest passing output since Week 8. Not only did Houston face a suspect L.A. defense but the Texans were gifted extra possessions due to four turnovers from the Bolts. Now, Stroud not only faces a stiffer test in KC’s postseason defense but also the elements. The forecast for Kansas City calls for sub-freezing temperatures to “feel like” 10 degrees with winds gusting up to 28 mph. Stroud’s splits when playing outdoors will drop like the mercury in KC. His completion rate, average yards per attempt, and overall passer rating in outdoor venues pale comparison to his stats indoors. Mix in a Chiefs attack likely milking the clock with a lead in the second half and projections that call for only 220 yards, and I’m on the Under for Stroud’s yardage.

I’m anticipating the Lions roaring up and down Ford Field just like they’ve done all season, and the Commanders don’t have the stop-unit personnel to quiet them. Jared Goff should have his full complement of weapons at his disposal, and among QBs with 250 passing attempts, he finished second in both completion percentage (72.4%) and yards per attempt (8.6). Add the likelihood of David Montgomery returning vs. a Washington defense allowing the third-highest yards per carry (4.87) to backs along with the sixth-highest EPA per rush while ranking 29th in PFF run defense grade, and the Lions are set up to call their shot on whether to score quick with multiple explosive plays or churn the clock with a methodical drive.

I anticipate Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn taking away potential chunk plays to force the Commanders to throw underneath and lean on the ground game. It will result in Washington needing to sustain long drives to score touchdowns, and likely multiple stalled drives resulting in punts and field-goal attempts. That’s an Under recipe, and especially with such a high benchmark to clear. Detroit isn’t going to be cooled, but if the Lions can jump out to a multi-possession lead like I expect, then they can shift gears to slow the pace and run the clock.

The best way to fight that chaos might be with more chaos. Someone’s luck is going to run out, but Washington is getting a 10-point head start from the oddsmakers. Quarterback Jayden Daniels is no longer a “rookie” at this point in the postseason and he played with poise and grit in the Wild Card win over a very aggressive Tampa Bay defense. Daniels faces a similar style attack from Detroit, one that wants to blitz at a high rate and put the QB on his heels. That plan has worked well for the Lions most weeks, but when you run down Detroit’s schedule you don’t find too many quarterbacks that can move and throw on the run like Daniels.

Hurts ran the ball only six times in the win over the Packers (one on a QB kneel), which was a downtick from his season average of 10 carries per game. It was Hurts’ first game back after missing two weeks due to a concussion, so the team tread lighter than usual when it came to calling Hurts’ number. With another week to recover, expect an all-out effort from Hurts on the ground against the Rams. He ran 12 times in the win over Los Angeles in Week 12 and we've seen heavy workloads from Hurts on the ground in past postseason games. He faces a L.A. defense that’s improved since that last meeting. The Rams are forcing a lot of third and fourth downs, which means “Brotherly Shove” time for Hurts. He’ll also claim any goal line carries and with the Eagles laying -6, there’s always those bonus “carries” in victory formation.

Philadelphia is the best two-way team in the NFC — perhaps the NFL. The Eagles offense was run-heavy in the win over the Green Bay Packers in the Wild Card Round but has plenty of passing weapons to stretch the field. Defensively, Vic Fangio’s stop unit is clicking at the perfect time. The Philadelphia defense has been dominant down the stretch and did a good job against Matthew Stafford in that Week 12 meeting, scoring five sacks and checking L.A. to just 4.8 yards per pass attempt. I bet Philadelphia -6 on the opener, expecting this spread to climb to -6.5 and maybe even a touchdown. I’d bet it again if it stays short of six points.

Postseason home pups have proved profitable in recent years, boasting a 5-3 SU record and a 6-2 ATS count since 2020. Take it back to 2015, and home underdogs have come through at a 75% clip (10-3-1 ATS). Allen and the Bills are the toughest test the Ravens stop unit has faced in while. Baltimore finished the schedule against offenses rated 19^th, 23^rd, 28^th and 32^nd in EPA per play and then faced the Steelers’ one-dimensional playbook again in the Wild Card Round. We did see Baltimore give up points against capable offense, including two shootouts with Cincinnati, 24 points to the Eagles, and 31 points to Tampa Bay. Buffalo enters the second round of the tournament right behind Baltimore at the top of those advanced offensive metrics and can gouge the Ravens for gains on the ground and through the air.

Select books opened this Over/Under as short as 51 points – a crucial number in total betting – with most shops starting at 51.5 and that high even seeing -115 juice on the Over, indicating this total isn’t done growing. Both the Ravens and Bills flexed with offensive muscle in the Wild Card Round, stomping out quality defensive opponents and averaging 6.4 and 6.5 yards per play respectively. Defensively, they gave up a collective 21 points, but their Wild Card foes didn’t exactly test them too much. Russell Wilson and the Steelers recorded only 11 first downs while Bo Nix and the Broncos threatened in the first half but stalled out in the final 30 minutes. I see plenty of points and want this total at the key number of 51, before this grows higher.