NFL Picks

This might be my favorite touchdown prop in the game, largely because of the price. Chris Rodriguez Jr. missed last week but has returned to full practice, and while Jacory Croskey-Merritt may have earned some snaps, Rodriguez is still the most likely candidate to reclaim his red-zone role, which he’s controlled for most of the season. Since Week 9, no other Commanders running back has more than one carry inside the five-yard line. With Marcus Mariota priced as short as +250, I’d rather back the goal-line back, especially one averaging 3.8 yards per carry in the red zone. There isn’t much margin for error here, but I’d play this down to +170 or +175.

Brown is locked in for another stellar showing in Week 16, given the competition. Washington is one of the worst passing defenses in the league and Brown burned Dan Quinn’s crew for gains of 65, 95, and 97 yards in their three meetings last year. The Commanders, who are 28th in pass defense DVOA and sit tied for the most completions of 40-plus yards (12), lean into man coverage at an above-average rate – especially now that Quinn is calling the plays. Brown enters Week 16 as the No. 4 rated receiver versus man schemes at PFF, most recently lighting up the Chicago Bears man-centric schemes for 132 yards on 10 catches. Brown’s player projections for this Saturday showcase all sit north of 70 yards with most models flirting with 80 yards and a ceiling sitting at 87. That more than enough to blow through this modest total of 60.5 O/U.

Caleb Williams has thrown for two or more touchdowns in three of the past four games. 

Even if Christian Watson is out, Love proved that he can hit a deep bomb with other receivers in the last matchup with the Bears. 

There’s no denying Allen’s passing prowess and the reigning MVP has connected for two or more touchdowns in nine of his 14 starts this season. He’s thrown for three TDs in each of the past two games. Most QBs of his quality would see the Over on touchdown throws carrying a hefty ask but Allen’s ability to run for the end zone anchors the vig on the Over each week, with juice often sitting at -130 or shorter. Cleveland has given up two passing touchdowns in each its last two outings, with Caleb Williams and Cam Ward doubling up. Allen’s projections range from 1.5 to 1.9 with the majority of models at 1.7 or higher.

Even with Dalton Kincaid back, Dawson Knox has stayed heavily involved near the goal line. He scored twice last week and had another touchdown erased by a penalty in Week 14. Over the last two games, Knox has four targets inside the 10 compared to three for Kincaid (Jackson Hawes has one). Cleveland has allowed just one quarterback rushing touchdown all season, which points to more Josh Allen passing near the goal line in another must-win spot. Kincaid remains the more dynamic playmaker, but it was Knox who played more snaps and ran more routes last week.

The Panthers have been gashed through the air the past two games for a 68.9 completion percentage and 8.44 yards per target while allowing the fifth-highest dropback success rate and ranking 24th in pass defense DVOA. Now that Mayfield has his full receiving corps back on the field, he can pick apart a Carolina defense generating QB pressure at the second-lowest rate in the NFL and ranking 31st in PFF pass rush grade.

Jalen McMillan eased back into the lineup in Week 15, running about half the routes and drawing two targets that turned into 38 yards. That usage could climb this week against a Carolina defense that’s struggled, especially if the game environment tilts toward another shootout. ESPN Insider Jeremy Fowler expects McMillan’s role to grow in his second game back, noting that the coaching staff is encouraged by what they saw. With Emeka Egbuka showing signs of a rookie wall, McMillan is a candidate for an expanded workload. I’m interested in McMillan as a touchdown play up to +350, but if the price shortens, I’d rather pivot to Chris Godwin at +275 or better.

The Chargers have consecutive outright wins as an underdog, while the Cowboys have lost outright in back-to-back games as a favorite. Los Angeles has also won six of seven to improve to 10-4 for the campaign, while Dallas is all but officially eliminated from the postseason at 6-7-1. Additionally, just when it looked like the Dallas defense might be turning the corner, the Cowboys have given up 78 points while allowing the fourth-highest EPA per play the past two weeks. Dallas now sits 30th in defensive DVOA while allowing the third-highest EPA per play and second-most points per game (30.0).

After collecting 37 or more receiving yards in nine of the first 11 games of the season, Allen has been held below the benchmark in three straight with 12 receptions on 15 targets for 88 total yards. This is a bounce-back spot for the spry veteran, though. The Cowboys have surrendered the fourth-highest catch percentage to opposing wide receivers for the seventh-highest yards per target while allowing the fourth-highest EPA per dropback and ranking 30th in pass defense DVOA.

Chris Olave reeled in six catches for 85 yards last week against Carolina. He has logged 62+ receiving yards in six of his last nine games and he's finally getting good quarterback play with Tyler Shough under center. The rookie QB has developed chemistry with Olave who is the Saints only reliable pass catcher after they traded Rashid Shaheed and Brandin Cooks. Olave gets a juicy matchup this week at home against the Jets who traded away top corner Sauce Gardner at the deadline. The Jets are 31st in the league in defensive dropback EPA while ranking 28th in DVOA against No. 1 WRs.

These are two of the weakest offenses in the NFL, and I’m not seeing any reason why either will break out on Sunday.

I’m taking Giants +2.5 because I don’t see much separation between these teams, Minnesota’s third-down and turnover volatility plays worse on the road, and New York has a realistic path to stay on script with quick-game and play-action.

The Vikings have been ineffective running the ball near the goal line, to the point that C.J. Ham handled the one-yard touchdown carry last week. In fact, J.J. McCarthy matched all Vikings running backs combined in carries inside the 10 and has now scored two rushing touchdowns across his six starts. This is also an offense that loves to pass in the red zone. He’s in a strong spot to add to that total against the Giants, who allow the most quarterback rushing yards per game and have already surrendered four QB rushing touchdowns this season. Marcus Mariota ran 10 times for 43 yards last week, and Caleb Williams went for eight carries, 63 yards, and a score four games ago. Those are clean comps for McCarthy’s rushing upside on Sunday. Look for his Over 18.5 rushing yards, as well. I'm playing this to +320/+330.

Ward has cashed the Under in passing yards in three straight appearances, finishing with 170 yards through the air last weekend in a loss to the 49ers. While the Chiefs may be missing the playoffs, they’re still fifth in fewest total yards allowed.

The Chiefs may be out of the playoff picture, but there’s no sign they’re packing it in. Isiah Pacheco’s role near the goal line remains encouraging after he handled five of the team’s seven red-zone carries last week and led the backfield with 11 total rushes. The efficiency wasn’t there, but the matchup improves significantly against Tennessee. Losing a more creative quarterback in the red zone and turning to Gardner Minshew should also funnel more looks to the run game. I make the fair price on this closer to +190 to +200.

Mike McDaniel might be on the hot seat, but there’s no doubting that he’s a smart offensive mind and should be able to dial up enough plays to get Ewers looking reasonable, especially with the Dolphins leaning on De’Von Achane. On the other sideline, you have a Bengals offense that is simply far, far better when Joe Burrow is under center. Last week felt like a real low for Burrow and one of his worst performances, but he has the belief and confidence to bounce back, and should do so against a bottom-half-of-the-league defense.

With the Dolphins starting a seventh-round rookie at quarterback expect them to lean on their rushing attack against a piss-poor Bengals run defense. Achane is coming off a quiet 60-yard performance. However, he had rushed for 90+ yards in his previous four games, averaging 130.0 rushing yards per game over that span. The Bengals are 30th in the league in defensive rush EPA and allow a league-high 157.9 rushing yards per game. Even if they sell out to stop the run, they might not be able to slow down Achane. They allow 5.0 yards per attempt when defending with a stacked box and Achane averages 5.8 ypa when running against a stacked box.

Trevor Lawrence is coming off a six-touchdown performance, and Brian Thomas looks back to his 2025 form. He found the end zone last week and led the team in red-zone usage with three targets, including two inside the 10. It's a great price, and with Jakobi Meyers likely drawing defensive attention and the market still lagging on Thomas, Week 16 sets up as a strong buy spot. For a receiver who scored 10 touchdowns as a rookie, +200 or better is a number worth taking.

Lawrence has a big “prove it” game in Denver and takes on an elite defense that gets even stingier in the red zone. We’re seeing him have more freedom to tuck and run in Liam Coen’s offense, which has led to six rushing touchdowns, including one last week against the Jets. He’s third among QB in RZ carries with 19 behind Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, yet doesn’t carry the same ATTD prices as those dual-threats

Brissett has thrown the ball at least 40 times in six straight contests, averaging a whopping 45.7 pass attempts per game over that span. The Cardinals have struggled to run the ball and have practically abandoned that part of their offense They are second in the NFL in passing play percentage (65.4%) with that number sky-rocketing to 72.5% over the last six weeks. Arizona is hosting the Falcons on Sunday in a warm and sunny day at State Farm Stadium. That should lead to plenty of throwing from a pair of teams with nothing to play for except pride.

David Sills is coming off a breakout performance with double-digit targets, 78 yards, and two red-zone looks. The matchup sets up well indoors against a defense that has allowed more than 100 points over its last three games. The main variable is the status of Drake London. London has missed four straight games and returned to practice this week in a limited capacity, with his coach calling him day to day. With the team already eliminated, there’s little incentive to rush him back. Even if London plays, Sills should still maintain a role, especially with Kirk Cousins coming off a 373-yard, three-touchdown outing. There’s risk baked in, but the price reflects it. If London is ruled out, this projects closer to +250, and if he plays, +350 still looks like a fair number.

There’s plenty of uncertainty in the Houston backfield, but this sets up as a game the Texans could control from start to finish. In the passing game, the volume is fairly concentrated, with Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz standing out as the primary options. Schultz led the team with nine targets last week and turned them into an 8/76/1 line. Since C.J. Stroud’s return, Schultz has seen 21 targets for 153 yards and a touchdown, along with three looks from inside the five-yard line. That kind of usage makes the price appealing in this matchup, and I’d play it up to +190.

The Lions lead the NFL in points per game (30.6) with that number ticking up to 33.7 ppg at home. They will be able to move the ball against Pittsburgh who surrenders 25.4 ppg on the road. The Steelers are 21st in the league in defensive EPA and will likely be missing All-Pro edge T.J. Watt and another top pass rusher in Nick Herbig. Detroit struggled to convert on third down for most of the year, but has improved in that area after Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties. The Lions are ninth in the league in third-down conversion rate over the last three games (45.7%) while Pittsburgh is just 27th in third-down defense (42.4%).

Rodgers has completed more than 20.5 passes in six of his last nine games and he's coming off back-to-back contests where he logged 23 completions. The Steelers are 7-point underdogs on Sunday, which implies a negative game script with plenty of passing. The Lions are 25th in the league in dropback EPA since Week 9. Their injury-depleted secondary is getting picked apart with Detroit allowing 24.3 completions per game over the last three contests. 

Stefon Diggs has incentive money firmly in play with three games remaining. He’s three receptions shy of a $500K bonus and 13 catches away from another $500K, putting a total of $1 million on the line. Diggs has recorded at least three receptions in all but one game this season but has been quieter recently in a pair of run-heavy matchups against the Bills and Giants. That could change this week against Baltimore, a defense allowing the sixth-most receptions to wide receivers. If Diggs wants to make a real push toward that second incentive at 80 catches, the volume needs to start building now. With the Jets up next and a Week 18 matchup against Miami that could turn run-heavy if playoff positioning is settled, this sets up as a spot where Diggs is motivated and the matchup finally cooperates.

Henry’s output dipped a bit toward the end of November but the Ravens’ battering ram has rumbled for 94 and 100 yards in his last two outings. Henry always makes it a December to remember, with the running back doing his best work in the home stretch of the schedule. For his career, Henry averages 5.17 yards per carry in December and puts up almost 93 yards rushing per game in the final month of the regular season. Since losing standout DT Milton Williams, New England has gone from a Top 8 defense in EPA allowed per carry and opponent success rate per run to 30th and 31st in those advanced metrics since Week 11. Player projections for Henry range from 71 yards to a high of 83.5, with the bulk of those forecasts sitting above his current rushing yards total. And if carrying Baltimore to the postseason isn’t motivation enough, Henry takes on his former head coach Mike Vrabel.

The game moves indoors, Philip Rivers gets another week in the offense, and he’s no longer dealing with the environment at Lumen Field. San Francisco is also finally healthy on offense, giving this matchup real scoring upside. The Blitz projects this total at 52.1 points, and the Colts’ pace of play with Rivers hasn’t slowed compared to season norms. While last week’s passing line looks modest, Rivers still pushed the ball downfield with eight throws of 10-plus yards and nine targets to running backs, hinting at a more aggressive approach. Shane Steichen reinforced that the game plan can shift week to week. San Francisco’s defense just allowed 24 points and 6.2 yards per play to Tennessee, while Brock Purdy looked sharp coming out of the bye. The 49ers are also 6-3-1 to the over at home or indoors, where offensive efficiency tends to spike.

Once a season, touchdown bettors have to take a swing on 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk, and this might be the spot. The offense is back to full strength, Brock Purdy looked refreshed coming out of the bye, and Juszczyk is another week removed from a rib injury. He logged a season-high 46 offensive snaps last week and hasn’t scored since Week 3, which helps keep the price in check. Juszczyk remains a strong pass-catching option who can still win on a wheel route, and he has seven games with double-digit receiving yards this season. Indoors against an overrated defense that may not account for the fullback near the goal line, this sets up as a worthwhile long-shot look. A half-unit.

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.