NFL Picks

Buffalo's biggest weakness is its run defense, but the Broncos won't capitalize. Since losing RB J.K. Dobbins to an injury in Week 10, Denver ranks 25th in rush EPA with R.J. Harvey churning out just 3.4 yards per carry. Bo Nix will also have a tough time throwing against a Bills defense that holds foes to 159.6 passing yards per game on 5.8 ypa. Buffalo's ability to throw downfield will also be limited due to a bevy of injuries at WR, and Denver has an elite stop unit. 

The Bills will have to shorten their passing game and rely on underneath throws with their WR corps decimated by injuries. That should lead to plenty of work for tight end Dawson Knox. Denver has a strong pass defense but is vulnerable to tight ends, allowing the ninth-most receiving yards per game (59.7) to the position. Knox has logged 24+ receiving yards in six of his last seven games, averaging 36.0 ypg over that span. He could get even more targets than usual with fellow TE Dalton Kincaid banged up. 

Charbonnet saw his touches surge down the stretch. He carried the rock 17 times for 74 yards against San Francisco in the season finale and logged 18 carries for 110 yards against Carolina the week before. It's worth noting that Charbonnet has faced 8+ defenders in the box on 35.3% of his runs — the third-highest number in the NFL. However, San Fran's defense has used a stack box a league-low 15.6% of the time. The Niners are 31st in the league in defensive rush success rate and have struggled to make tackles in the second level due to a cluster of injuries at linebacker.

McCaffrey logged 924 receiving yards in the regular season before adding another 66 yards in the Wild Card round. He was routinely cranking out games of 50+ receiving yards before Pro Bowl TE George Kittle got healthy and absorbed some of his underneath targets. Kittle tore his Achilles tendon last week which should lead to heavy usage for C-Mac in a contest where the 49ers have an implied passing game script as 7-point dogs. The Seahawks have an elite defense but are vulnerable against pass-catching backs, ranking 27th in the NFL in receiving yards allowed to the position.

Drake Maye has been sacked a whopping 52 times this season. The sophomore QB tends to hold on to the ball too long due to his mediocre receivers struggling to separate from DBs. That will make Maye a sitting duck in the pocket against Houston who has a strong secondary and the best pass rushing duo in the NFL. Danielle Hunter finished the regular season third in the league in sacks (15) and fourth in pressures (89). He's picked up a sack in eight of his last 10 games, including last week's clash in Pittsburgh where he racked up six pressures.

Houston road games are 8-1 to the 1st Half Under with an average of just 14.6 combined points. I like this pattern to continue with both defenses coming off elite performances where they allowed a combined nine points in the wild card round.  

Colston Loveland had sky-high expectations after Chicago selected him with the 10th pick in the 2025 draft. The rookie tight end took a couple of months to earn the trust of his coaches but has become Caleb Williams' favorite target down the stretch. Loveland has racked up 6+ receptions and more than 90 receiving yards in three-straight games, reeling in eight of 15 targets for 137 yards in last week's win against Green Bay. With wideouts Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore hindered by lower-body injuries, Caleb Williams will rely on his security blanket TE on a cold and windy night at Soldier Field.

Adams returned from injury in the win over Carolina, drawing 13 targets for five catches and 72 yards in the Wild Card Round. That came against a zone-heavy scheme, but he’ll face a Chicago secondary that relies on man coverage. Adams rates among the best WRs versus man-to-man and has been L.A.’s top downfield threat, averaging 24 air yards per reception. The Bears limit yards after the catch but have been burned over the top, bleeding the third most air yards and second most explosive pass plays. Adams’ projections sit north of 60 yards with a ceiling of 67 yards.