NFL Picks

Stafford threw for a pair of scores in Week 11 against the Seahawks, and he also has multiple touchdown passes in 12 of 14 games this season. Additionally, the veteran threw for two TDs against Seattle and head coach Mike Macdonald in Week 9 before sitting out the Week 18 season finale last year. While it'll definitely be a bonus if Rams wide receiver Davante Adams (hamstring) suits up, I consider his iffy status and the rainy -- and potentially windy -- weather forecast too built into the price for this prop.

Matthew Stafford the Rams present the most capable offense this Seahawks team has faced since… well, their 21-19 loss to Los Angeles back in Week 11. Seattle takes a big step up in QB competition, having faced rookie Cam Ward, backup Max Brosmer, 37-year-old Kirk Cousins, and Philip “Ol’ Man” Rivers the past four outings.  While Stafford is no spring chicken, also at 37, he’s playing some of the best football of his career. And, as we saw in their last matchup, Los Angeles doesn’t need Stafford to blow up the box score in order for it to win. The Seahawks, on the other hand, do need QB Sam Darnold to show up. The journeyman passer has played better than expected overall yet struggled whenever Seattle run into a quality stop unit.

The defending Super Bowl champs have underachieved most of the season but are fresh off a 31-0 win against the Raiders, and I expect them to run up the score once again. Washington is clearly in full-on tank mode after shutting down Jayden Daniels for the remainder of the season. The Commanders are 31st in the league in defensive EPA, and their offense won't be much better without their franchise quarterback. The Eagles are the far more talented team, and they need to enter the playoffs with some momentum. I'm more than happy to lay less than a touchdown on the favorites in this matchup. 

Philly faces another soft defense in Week 16, and I’m confident the Eagles can put enough points on the board while holding the Commanders in check to cover the number. Washington has allowed the seventh-most points per game while surrendering the second-highest EPA and second-most yards per play, and the Commanders also entered Week 15 ranked 27th in defensive DVOA.

The Under is 5-2 in the Bills' road games and 3-1 in Browns home games as underdog

The Bills are inconsistent and have struggled against top rated defenses

Tampa Bay has had a mini bye to get over a Thursday Night Football loss to Atlanta and enters Week 16 with its full arsenal of offensive weapons. The Buccaneers put up 338 yards and 28 first downs on TNF, averaging 5.5 yards per play and going 3 for 3 in the red zone. They just sucked on defense. Tampa Bay allowed close to 500 yards of offense from the Falcons, who scored 29 points. Carolina’s defense was almost as bad in a Week 15 flop at New Orleans. The Panthers made the Saints look good, with NOLA racking up 337 yards, 27 first downs, and 6.7 yards per play. The Panthers get to come home this Sunday, where their offense averages over six points more than on the road. This Over/Under sits just short of the key number of 46 points and feels too short considering the poor defenses we’ve seen from these divisional foes. 

A running game script is implied by the Buccaneers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.. Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 10th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. In this game, Baker Mayfield is projected by our trusted projection set to have the 8th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 32.5.

The past few weeks, L.A. has found another gear. The Chargers aren’t just making it tough to move the chains, they’re making it dangerous. They’ve recorded 11 sacks, seven interceptions, and forced three fumbles (recovering one of those loose balls) during their three-game winning streak. The Bolts are a Top 5 passing defense and their zone-centric schemes don’t allow anything deep, checking rival QBs to the fewest total air yards and allowing the fourth lowest completion rate in the land. Dallas’ offense is reliant on over-the-top shots, especially with the way the Cowboys’ defense hemorrhages yards and often has this team involved in shootouts. The Cowboys are a Bottom 5 pass defense no matter how the advanced metrics slice it.

Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.5 plays per game.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.. The Cowboys defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.9 per game) this year.. Keenan Allen ranks as one of the top WRs in the game this year, averaging an impressive 4.5 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 93rd percentile.

A running game script is suggested by the Saints being a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest.. The predictive model expects the Saints as the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Opposing offenses have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game against the Jets defense this year: 9th-fewest in the league.. Juwan Johnson's talent in generating extra yardage have diminished this season, notching a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 3.88 figure last season.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Each of the last four Giants games have gone Over the total. 

The Giants are 0-3 against the spread this season in games where they were either favored or underdogs by less than three points.

At the present time, the 10th-least pass-centric team in the league (58.8% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Tennessee Titans.. The model projects the Titans to call the 7th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The Tennessee Titans have run the 8th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 54.9 plays per game.. Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Chiefs, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 31.7 per game) this year.. Tony Pollard's 12.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 18.1.

The Kansas City Chiefs will be starting backup quarterback Gardner Minshew in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.4% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game.. The Kansas City offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.. This year, the poor Titans defense has surrendered a whopping 74.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 2nd-worst rate in the league.

This year, the porous Cincinnati Bengals defense has been torched for a massive 72.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 9th-worst rate in the NFL.. The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in the league this year in defending receivers.

The Over is 5-2 in Jacksonville's last seven, and has hit in Denver's last three. And I love it to hit again here.

Jacksonville hasn’t been held under 25 points since the bye week, and Denver’s run defense has been leaky the past few weeks, and that will let the Jaguars move the ball. Add in Little’s leg and they should score anytime they get near midfield.

Nix won’t push the ball downfield like some teams do against the Jaguars, but Denver’s quick-pass scheme will help him keep drives alive and negate some of the pass rush ability of the Jaguars. He’ll also put together enough drives against a defense that struggles to get stops on third and five or less.

 

As long as I'm getting a flat three points, I'm taking the Jaguars to cover.

The Jags have covered in five straight, beating the spread by an average of 16.6 points in that span. Trevor Lawrence is red-hot, throwing for nearly 1800 yards and 18 touchdowns in the seven games since the bye week. 

The Broncos are showing weaknesses on defense of late, especially against the run. And their comeback over the Packers this weekend was aided by a rash of injuries to their opponent. Bo Nix can't consistently throw the ball more than 10 yards downfield, which negates Jacksonville's biggest issue on defense.

The oddsmakers have been underestimating the Jaguars for some time now, and with Cam Little's "in the stadium" range and the thin Mile High air, I'll back the visitors to keep this one very close in what should be a tight affair. 

The Cardinals are fifth in the NFL in pace, while the Falcons are seventh, and with both teams eliminated from the playoffs, expect unenthusiastic tackling down the stretch. Arizona is 8-2 O/U in its 10 games while Atlanta has gone Over the total in six of its last seven. The Falcons are 23rd in the league in defensive dropback success rate, which is bad news against a pass-happy Arizona attack that has been slinging the ball with Jacoby Brissett. Meanwhile, the Cardinals rank 31st in defensive success rate and have surrendered more than 40 points in four of their last six games. They are 25th in DVOA against the run, so Bijan Robinson will rip off big plays on the ground.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to see 135.9 total plays run: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The leading projections forecast Kirk Cousins to throw 36.1 passes this week, on balance: the 10th-most out of all quarterbacks.. The Atlanta O-line ranks as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.. As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Arizona's safety corps has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in the league.

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 2nd-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.24 seconds per play.. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.. C.J. Stroud's 64.7% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a noteable improvement in his passing precision over last year's 61.0% figure.. This year, the porous Las Vegas Raiders defense has allowed a staggering 73.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 7th-highest rate in the NFL.. As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Las Vegas's group of safeties has been awful this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in football.

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 2nd-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.24 seconds per play.. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.. C.J. Stroud's 64.7% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a noteable improvement in his passing precision over last year's 61.0% figure.. This year, the porous Las Vegas Raiders defense has allowed a staggering 73.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 7th-highest rate in the NFL.. This year, the anemic Raiders defense has been torched for the 7th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing offenses: a monstrous 7.96 yards.

The Steelers are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.. The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.9% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.6 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. In this contest, Aaron Rodgers is forecasted by the projections to average the most pass attempts out of all QBs with 40.6.

The Steelers are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.. The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.9% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.6 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. In this contest, Aaron Rodgers is forecasted by the projections to average the most pass attempts out of all QBs with 40.6.

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to call the 4th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the best safety corps in football this year in defending receivers.

Derrick Henry has totaled a monstrous 1.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among RBs. (This may not sound like a lot, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (85.2%) vs. RBs this year (85.2%).

The Colts may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to use backup QB Philip Rivers.. The Colts are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.. The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts as the 10th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year.

The Colts may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to use backup QB Philip Rivers.. The Colts are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.. The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts as the 10th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year.

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.