NFL Picks

The Over is 5-1 in Arizona's last six, and 4-0 in Jacksonville's road games this season. Those trends should continue.

Both teams struggle to protect the goal line when opponents breach the red zone. Jacksonville's secondary is still giving up big plays too often, while the Cardinals are struggling to stop the run and keep turning the ball over in bad spots.

Arizona's offense will put up some numbers, with an offense ranked fifth in third down conversion rate and 11th in completion rate. I like both teams to clear the 24-point threshold and push this total Over.  

Jacksonville still has its sights set on the playoffs, and got the run game going against the Chargers. It's an area where Arizona struggles defensively, especially recently.

The Jaguars will follow the script of the 49ers and Seahawks, and look to run the ball while setting up play action. They'll also capitalize on turnovers, with the Cardinals coughing it up five times in the last two games. 

Jacksonville has been favored three times this season, and covered twice with a push. I'll back them to keep the playoff push going against a Cardinal team that has little left to play for. 

Maybe the bye week and defensive acquisitions ahead of the trade deadline will help the Dallas stop unit, but I’m not anticipating significant improvement, and Philadelphia is ripe for a breakout on offense following consecutive low-scoring wins. Of course, the Cowboys have also played to the Over in five of their past six games and average 29.2 points per game while allowing 30.8. I expect this total to climb leading into Sunday afternoon, too.

Things don't look good for the Falcons who are on a five-game losing streak and just lost QB Michael Penix to a season-ending injury. That said, Kirk Cousins is one of the best backup QBs in the league and Atlanta is facing New Orleans who might be the worst team in the NFL. The Saints are 2-8 while ranking 30th in the league in DVOA. The Saints shouldn't be favored against anybody except the Titans, especially not a division rival that won't take this game lightly. 

The Falcons have lost three consecutive one-possession games, so I like them figuring it out with veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins having a full week to prepare for the 2-8 Saints. New Orleans QB Tyler Shough has only seen meaningful action in three games, and he was held in check by both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams before a solid showing in Week 10 against the Carolina Panthers. With the Falcons ranking 14th in defensive DVOA and blitzing at the second-highest rate in the NFL, I’m expecting Shough to struggle again Sunday.

Tampa Bay was down WR Chris Godwin and RB Bucky Irving but both players put in limited practice work last week, which trends toward a positive status versus the Rams on Sunday Night Football. Los Angeles is coming of a grueling divisional battle with the Seahawks’ stingy defense in Week 11. The Rams only had the ball for 22:11 and totaled just 249 yards, yet somehow won 21-19 – thanks in part of turnovers and a missed game-winning field goal from Seattle. The Bucs defense doesn’t pose as much of a threat. Tampa Bay allowed 317 passing yards and three touchdowns to Josh Allen, so things are looking rosy for Matt Stafford and this L.A. attack. The total opened as low as 49 points, but most books are up to 49.5 with juice on the Over rising, significantly a move to 50 points. Given the next key number is 51, bookies won’t wait to move to 50.5 if Over money keeps coming.

With Brock Purdy back under center and WR Ricky Pearsall in the lineup, San Francisco’s offense almost has every key piece in play. It amassed 41 points on just 281 yards, thanks in part to three takeaways from the 49ers defense. San Francisco welcomes Carolina to the Bay Area for a Monday matchup in Week 12. The Panthers are ripe for a letdown spot after a thrilling comeback win over Atlanta in overtime Sunday. Carolina’s comeback was helped along by injuries to Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. and star WR Drake London. Now the Panthers cross the country for their second straight road game and their third away contest in three weeks. Keep an eye on the practice work of QB Bryce Young, who went down twice with two different injuries in Week 11. I’m grabbing the red-hot Niners under the key number of a touchdown right now.

Although the Dallas Cowboys' defense will be more stable under new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, it's hard to overlook a unit that was gashed on the ground and allowed a bottom-five mark in yards per play last season. Patrick Mahomes will torch them on the fast track at Jerry World, boasting a deep arsenal that includes a now-healthy Rashee Rice. With George Pickens joining CeeDee Lamb to bolster the Cowboys’ receiving corps, Dak Prescott should also be able to air it out — even if much of the damage comes in classic garbage-time mop-up duty at AT&T Stadium. The Kansas City Chiefs' defense lost key veterans in the secondary, including corner Charvarius Ward and safety Justin Reid. While their younger replacements may eventually settle into Steve Spagnuolo's system, it could take some time for them to get fully up to speed.

The Cincinnati Bengals have lost their last four games against the Baltimore Ravens and are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head matchups with their AFC North rivals. With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry spearheading a loaded offense, Baltimore's defense should also see a boost following the draft selections of safety Malaki Starks and edge rusher Mike Green. Back the Ravens to cover at home, where they went 5-3-1 ATS last season.

The Bears will have a new HC in Ben Johnson, and many people hold him in high regard for his ability to run an offense. He'll have a full complement of weapons to work with, including Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. And on defense, they should be stout in the trenches and on the outside. The Eagles, fresh off their Super Bowl victory, could be in for a letdown this year, and while this November clash is three months into the season, things could snowball if the team isn't 100% focused from Week 1. 

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.