NFL Picks

Sean McVay will lean into his ground game to get the play-action pass going, especially after watching Carolina get rolled for 140 yards rushing last week against the Bucs and after LA amassed 152 yards on the ground in their Week 13 meeting. Corum has been getting steady reps since Week 9. He’s has 11 or more carries in six of his last 10 games and gone for 40-plus rushing yards in seven of those outings. Big spread paints a game script of the Rams protecting a lead late and if this does become a blowout, second-teamers like Corum get extra love. 

Since that 31-point effort against the Rams (helped along by two interceptions and a pick-six), the Panthers have puttered along with offensive outputs of 10, 14, 17, and 23.

Los Angeles has issues in the secondary but faces a much tamer passing offense from Carolina, with QB Bryce Young passing for more than 200 yards just twice in the last six outings.

The Rams offense will lean into the run game after watching Tampa Bay march for 140 yards in a winning/losing effort versus Carolina in Week 18. Los Angeles rushed for 152 yards against the Panthers in Week 13. That will keep gains shorter and the clock ticking.

I like Chicago in this game and I like it for the way the Bears have been running the ball. But all that run opens up over-the-top shots for Caleb Willliams and Ben Johnson’s play-action attack. The Packers secondary isn’t great without a pass rush causing chaos and got burned on some big plays from Williams in their Week 16 meeting, longs of 46, 34, 27 yards. This pass defense has been protected otherwise, taking on the Vikes mish-mash of QBs last week, Snoop Huntley the week before, and a conservative Bo Nix. For better or worse, Williams will let it fly and I believe he’ll have his chances Saturday to go Over 32.5 on his longest completion.

Moore recorded 38 or more receiving yards in 10 of 18 games, including going good for a season-high 97 yards on five receptions against the Packers in Week 16. He was a limited participant in Tuesday’s practice with a knee injury, but I’m expecting the go-to wideout to be on the field and involved Saturday. Moore paced the Chicago receiving corps in snap percentage while finishing second in targets, receptions and receiving yards. This total is too low.

The Bills could be down to a third string kicker in the Wild Card Round, with Matt Prater – the backup – missing practice with a quads injury. He reaggravated it in Week 18, which left Buffalo to go for 2-points twice. Even before Prater’s injury, the Bills were one of the most active 2-point convert teams in the league and with this spread vs. Jacksonville hovering around 1 points, a 2-point try could decide the game.

This has been one of my favorite bets all season, because bookies have to pad the Under due to Allen’s activity in the red zone. He’s been known to call his own number from time to time. Allen has gone two games without a passing TD (ignoring Week 18) but in the 14 games prior, he connected for two or more TDs in nine of those outings. I mentioned the Jags shutting down the Bills run game. They don’t allow many TDs to running backs. This one is on Allen to win and he’s a major step up in QB competition for the Jags.

Hurts’ passing stock dropped at the end of the year. He had a bad day against the Bills top-tier passing defense and then really didn’t need to push the ball deep in one-sided win over Washington and Vegas. The 49ers play a very passive style, don’t blitz, have no pass rush, bend but don’t break in terms of keeping everything in front of them. Hurts is great when given time to throw. Projections vary but majority come in above this low total with a ceiling as high as 233 yards. 

A quick peek at San Francisco's schedule shows the Niners haven’t been able to score their way to wins against quality defenses, with four of their five losses coming against teams ranking seventh or higher in defensive DVOA. The Eagles are sixth in the metric while allowing the ninth-lowest EPA per play and fifth-fewest points per game (19.1). San Francisco hasn’t been a defensive juggernaut, either, finishing 27th in defensive DVOA while allowing the ninth-highest EPA per play. Given their bounty of weapons and a solid offensive line that could receive a boost in left tackle Lane Johnson (foot), the Eagles will find success on offense.

The cold conditions don’t help put points on the board, but we also have two solid defenses going to work in the Wild Card Round. Los Angeles’ zone-centric schemes have bottled up passing attacks and kept explosive plays at bay, with the Bolts giving up the second fewest receptions of 20 yards or more on the season. That could dull the Patriots’ downfield plans, with QB Drake Maye leading the league's second-most “explosive” air assault. As for New England, it also does a great job holding rival QBs in check. The Patriots rank Top 10 in EPA allowed per play and opponent success rate per dropback, while giving up the eighth fewest receptions of 20+ yards. With both passing games shortened and neither team wanting to press for fear of turnovers, I see both offenses attacking on the ground. That keeps gains shorter and the clock ticking, which is a perfect recipe for Unders.

At the present time, the 8th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (59.1% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the New England Patriots.. The Patriots offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

Stroud is going to have a tough time in Pittsburgh. He doesn’t like the outdoors, especially the cold, and while this offensive line has been better, we’re comparing it to the last couple years. That’s like comparing pee to poop. The Steelers’ bread and butter is chaos and bringing blitz, which will limit Stroud’s time in the pocket and force him to scramble. All projections consulted sit at 13 yards and up.

Despite how it got in, Pittsburgh is in. And hosting a Houston team in one of the toughest venues in all of sports. Acrisure Stadium will undoubtedly be loud and cold, with temperatures that “feel like” sub-freezing Monday night. The Texans are all about that defense, entering the postseason with the top ranked stop unit in the land. But in order to cover the spread, you need to put some points on the board. That’s been challenging for C.J. Stroud & Co. – at least when venturing into the great outdoors. Houston averages less than 22 points per game in open-air venues and only 19.8 points per road game on the year – a 7.5-point slide compared to its production at home. Stroud is notoriously an “indoor cat”, with his career passer rating, completion percentage, and yards per attempt all taking a nosedive outside.