NFL Picks

The Bills are running thin on receivers and feeling the pinch at TE as well. Kincaid limited in practice with knee and calf issues. He’s expected to play but the entire situation lifts Knox’s up the depth chart. Denver’s defense doesn’t have many gaps but it has given up gains to TEs. And he’s no stranger to the postseason pressure either, putting in some good work in the tournament throughout his career.

The Bills allowed an NFL high 18 rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs during the regular season and another four through the air, and Harvey scored six times across six games out of the Week 12 bye. Buffalo was also gashed for the third-most yards and second-highest EPA per carry while ranking 31st in run defense DVOA. Add the Bills allowing the Jacksonville Jaguars to run for a monster 6.7 yards per tote in the Wild Card Round to Buffalo travelling for the second consecutive game on a short week, and I like Harvey to find pay dirt Saturday.

JSN had 6 catches on 8 targets at San Francisco in Week 18 – a game in which the Seahawks ran on over 58% of their offensive snaps. This is a team that usually hands off at below a 50% rate. Running the ball won’t be as easy this time around and Sam Darnold will look to his top target when the going gets tough. He recorded 7 of more grabs in four straight before Week 18 and has gone Over this total of 6.5 receptions in 12 of his 17 games. He’s the second best WR vs. zone and faces a lot of that at home on Saturday.

San Fran is in tough without tight end George Kittle (Achilles), with the Niners ranking 26th in rush offensive DVOA across the six games he missed during the regular season. Of course, San Francisco also just lost to Seattle 13-3 in Week 18, and the Seahawks send out the best defense in the NFL. In addition to being rested and pacing the league in EPA per play and defensive DVOA, the Seahawks also allow the lowest EPA and fewest yards per rush. I like the Seattle defense slowing down the San Fran offense again while putting enough points on the board to cover the number at Lumen Field on Saturday.

Stevenson was heavily involved in the Patriots offense in the Wild Card Round, on the ground and through the air. He gained back his spot atop the rushing attack at the end of the season, scoring six TDs in the final three games.  The yards are going to be hard against Houston and no one on the Pats goes as hard as Stevenson. 

Houston’s 30-point effort in the Wild Card looks much stronger, considering it had two defensive TDs. But even then, this passing game struggled through most of Monday until the Steelers buckled in the fourth quarter. The Patriots’ pass defense is sound and doesn’t allow for explosive plays and the run defense is back to full strength. Stroud is outdoors again - where he struggles - and star WR Nico Collins is nursing a concussion on a short week. Houston averaged less than 20 points on the road this season. The Patriots allowed only 16.7 ppg as a host and checked the Chargers to three points (and turned away L.A. on fourth down) in the Wild Card.

Adams returned from injury in the Wild Card. He drew 13 targets but had just 5 receptions, still picking up 72 yards. That was against a zone-heavy scheme. He’s going to face more one-on-one man coverage in Chicago and while Puka Nacua is the best WR vs. man, DaVante’s not too far behind him, according to PFF. Puka is the ultimate YAC receiver while Adams is more of the air yards weapon. Chicago a strong tackling team that limits those yards after catch, but third most air yards allowed. Projections for Adams all north of 60 yards.

Chicago’s explosive passing attack can expose this L.A. secondary, that’s struggled in the home stretch and just made Bryce Young look like Steve Young in the Wild Card Round (for the second time this season).

And there’s the matter of the Rams traveling for a second straight week and coming into a cold climate, with extended forecasts calling for bitter temperatures (feels like -7) and potential 20-plus mph winds at Soldier Field.