NFL Picks

Baltimore had rolled off five consecutive wins while ranking eighth in offensive DVOA and 12th in defensive DVOA before losing to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 13, so I like the Ravens to respond in a pivotal AFC North game against the visiting Steelers. Pittsburgh has dropped five of seven, and quarterback Aaron Rogders hasn’t connected for multiple touchdown passes since Week 8. The Ravens roll at M&T Bank Stadium and cover the number in Week 14.

Atlanta has played some softer foes in recent weeks, facing New York, New Orleans, and Carolina. Now, the Falcons take on one of the best two-way teams in the league. Seattle feasted on the Vikings’ shaky QB situation this weekend, creating a ton of chaos in the pocket and upping its stock as the premier stop unit in the land. That vaunted pass rush will be chasing down the aging legs of Kirk Cousins in Week 14. The Seahawks opened with the half point hook on the touchdown, which may scare off some. But -8 is an undervalued key number in football betting these days and this spread could quickly move to -8.5 to -9 considering the contrast in public opinion.

The Jaguars offense is improving with every week, while the Colts have been strong offensively all season

The Jags have covered in their past three, while the Colts have failed to cover in their previous four games.

The Raiders have been outscored by double-digits in three consecutive games and have also lost six straight to drop to 2-10 on the season. Even worse, Las Vegas quarterback Geno Smith has been among the worst in the league during the stretch with a miniscule 6.2 yards per attempt and -0.147 EPA per play. Denver continues to send out a stingy defense allowing the fewest yards per play and fourth-fewest points per game. Of course, the Broncos have rolled off nine consecutive wins, too.

Last week the Rams were 10.5-point road faves against a 6-6 Carolina Panthers team. And that was despite having to travel to the Eastern Seaboard for a 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff. They ended up losing that game due to a couple of rare picks from Matthew Stafford but that doesn't justify a shift to -8 this week with easier travel conditions against the 3-9 Cardinals. This is a Rams team that is still second in the league in DVOA while the Cardinals rank 21st. Expect the Rams to bounce back with a lopsided win here.

Oddsmakers continue to underestimate the Texans who have the top-rated defense in the league in terms of EPA/play. With C.J. Stroud under center, the Texans also have a decent offense so long as they're playing against a defense that can't take advantage of their poor pass protection. With the Chiefs in the Bottom 10 in pressure rate and sacks, they won't be able to force Stroud into bad decisions. I'm reluctant to bet against Patrick Mahomes at home but the Chiefs tend to get off to slow starts. I'll take the points with the Texans in the first half.  

Houston has held its last three foes to 19 points or less, including the Colts in Week 13. The Texans know this Andy Reid offensive all too well after losing 23-14 to Kansas City in the Divisional Round last January, despite checking Patrick Mahomes & Co. to just 212 total yards. As for the Houston offense, it has to come outside in the cold – not C.J. Stroud’s favorite setting – with Arrowhead Stadium expected to “feel like” 12 degrees for Sunday Night Football. The Chiefs’ scoring has sputtered too, with a lack of explosive plays and the offense stalling out in the red zone. Kansas City was able to put up some points indoor against a shoddy Dallas defense, but Houston is a different beast. I’m betting the Under 43.5 now with some sportsbooks already sliding below the key number and this total likely to drop closer to 41 once weather reports make the rounds.

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.