NFL Picks

Allen has 13 rushing TDs in 11 games since the bye and has six rushing TDs in his past six playoff games.

Buffalo's biggest weakness is its run defense, but the Broncos won't capitalize. Since losing RB J.K. Dobbins to an injury in Week 10, Denver ranks 25th in rush EPA with R.J. Harvey churning out just 3.4 yards per carry. Bo Nix will also have a tough time throwing against a Bills defense that holds foes to 159.6 passing yards per game on 5.8 ypa. Buffalo's ability to throw downfield will also be limited due to a bevy of injuries at WR, and Denver has an elite stop unit. 

There are several Seahawks playmakers who could get in on the scoring action against a terrible 49ers defense. One of those guys is WR Cooper Kupp who has just two TDs this season but is getting opportunities. Kupp was targeted 12 times in the red zone during the regular season with eight of those coming in the final six weeks after Tory Horton suffered a season-ending injury. The veteran is a reliable route-runner with sticky hands and his experience is invaluable on a young team. That could make Sam Darnold look his way with the Niners defense focused on Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

If the 49ers are going to score against an elite Seattle defense, there's a good chance it will be via Christian McCaffrey. The Pro Bowl RB is a dual-threat that can score on the ground and through the air. He has logged an incredible 98 red-zone touches this season (74 carries and 20 receptions), leading to 17 total touchdowns. C-Mac punched the ball into the endzone twice against Philadelphia last week and has scored a TD in seven of his last eight games.

The door remains open for Kirk to see an uptick in targets again against the Pats with No. 1 wideout Nico Collins in concussion protocol and unlikely to play after missing practice Thursday.  Kirk went good to the tune of eight catches for 144 yards on nine targets last week against the Steelers in the Wild Card Round, and New England finished 25th in pass defense DVOA during the regular season. He’ll also have a size advantage against Pats slot cornerback Marcus Jones, and Jones surrendered a 75% catch rate and 113.9 NFL passer rating against this season. 

Houston needed the defense to bail out the offense in Pittsburgh but the Patriots are a much more dynamic team. New England's defense is fantastic both stopping the run and slowing down the pass. C.J. Stroud will struggle with the elements and miss Nico Collins, who is likely out with a concussion. When Houston's pressure mounts, Drake Maye can make plays with his legs, unlike Aaron Rodgers, and the Pats can pick up gains on the ground with the two-headed beast at running back. New England wins a low-scoring grinder, which is why I'm leaning ML rather than lay the field goal with the Patriots.

Loveland led the team in targets last week, tied the team in red zone targets across the season, and has averaged better than a touchdown every two games since Week Nine.

Adams leads the team in Red Zone targets and touchdowns this season, and the Bears have allowed 20 TDs to opposing WRs (third most in the NFL).