NFL Picks

Denver goes after Buffalo on the ground, which should limit Nix to begin with. But when he does throw, Nix doesn’t go beyond the sticks and sits near the bottom in air yard metrics. The Broncos are all about the YAC – sitting No. 2 in yards after the catch – but Buffalo’s pass defense is especially good at snuffing out YAC as a top tackling team, allowing the least in the NFL.

The Bills’ downfield attack will be limited, with the playbook shortened due to the injuries at WR. That leaves tight ends and Khalil Shakir as top options. The Broncos’ passing offense isn’t explosive, either. Quarterback Bo Nix sits near the bottom of most “air yards” statistics and Denver relies more on yards after the catch. In fact, the Broncos are the third best YAC passing game in the NFL and face a Bills defense that has allowed the fewest YAC to receivers on the year. Denver will go after a suspect Buffalo run stop, hoping to chip away and set up easier third downs, while controlling possession. The Broncos’ rushing attack has improved in the home stretch and runs behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. We’ve seen Buffalo have a tough time cracking top defenses like the Broncos. The Bills managed only 12 points against the Eagles, 19 points versus Houston, and 23 points in a close win over Cleveland.

JSN had 6 catches on 8 targets at San Francisco in Week 18 – a game in which the Seahawks ran on over 58% of their offensive snaps. This is a team that usually hands off at below a 50% rate. Running the ball won’t be as easy this time around and Sam Darnold will look to his top target when the going gets tough. He recorded 7 of more grabs in four straight before Week 18 and has gone Over this total of 6.5 receptions in 12 of his 17 games. He’s the second best WR vs. zone and faces a lot of that at home on Saturday.

San Fran is in tough without tight end George Kittle (Achilles), with the Niners ranking 26th in rush offensive DVOA across the six games he missed during the regular season. Of course, San Francisco also just lost to Seattle 13-3 in Week 18, and the Seahawks send out the best defense in the NFL. In addition to being rested and pacing the league in EPA per play and defensive DVOA, the Seahawks also allow the lowest EPA and fewest yards per rush. I like the Seattle defense slowing down the San Fran offense again while putting enough points on the board to cover the number at Lumen Field on Saturday.

Houston’s 30-point effort in the Wild Card looks much stronger, considering it had two defensive TDs. But even then, this passing game struggled through most of Monday until the Steelers buckled in the fourth quarter. The Patriots’ pass defense is sound and doesn’t allow for explosive plays and the run defense is back to full strength. Stroud is outdoors again - where he struggles - and star WR Nico Collins is nursing a concussion on a short week. Houston averaged less than 20 points on the road this season. The Patriots allowed only 16.7 ppg as a host and checked the Chargers to three points (and turned away L.A. on fourth down) in the Wild Card.

Due to the Steelers’ anemic offense, the Pittsburgh defense was forced to play more than 32 minutes and eventually broke in the second half. Two defensive scores may be skewing the early movement on this total, which jumped from 40.5 to 41.5 points.

Houston’s defense – specifically the pass defense – is elite. The Texans don’t give up much downfield and face a New England receiving corps shy of a game-breaking receiver. New England is also very good at taking away downfield threats and limiting explosive plays.

Much like the Patriots’ win over Los Angeles, this matchup with the Texans will be reserved to shorter gains and extended drives, anchored in the run. Houston marched for 163 yards and 5.3 yards per carry versus the Steelers while New England totaled 146 rushing yards and 5.0 yards per attempt against L.A.

I like the Under with a half-point hook on the happy side of the key O/U number of 41.5. 

Chicago’s explosive passing attack can expose this L.A. secondary, that’s struggled in the home stretch and just made Bryce Young look like Steve Young in the Wild Card Round (for the second time this season).

And there’s the matter of the Rams traveling for a second straight week and coming into a cold climate, with extended forecasts calling for bitter temperatures (feels like -7) and potential 20-plus mph winds at Soldier Field.

The Bears are 6-3 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games. Their offense has been churning out yards on the ground while their defense does a great job forcing turnovers. They'll have a significant home-field advantage in this game with Soldier Field rocking on a freezing and windy night, and the Rams making two cross-country flights over the week. Rams superstar QB Matthew Stafford has struggled in cold-weather games, and eight of his nine picks this year (reg season and playoffs) have come on the road. He's also banged up and will be playing with a sprained index finger on his throwing hand.