NFL Picks

JSN has five TDs in five games.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has caught eight touchdowns this season from wide alignment, and the Colts have allowed 13 touchdowns to players from that exact alignment. 

In the past month, they’ve faced three of the top four teams per defensive DVOA and averaged 22.6 points scored in those games. That’s good going when they’ve averaged just 15.5 points across the whole season.

The 49ers are averaging 23.6 points per game, and with the Titans showing real signs of improvement, we should see the game total smashed.

With the 49ers likely to have a big game themselves, we should expect the Titans to put up points too, even if it’s not enough to win or even cover the spread.

I’m not suddenly buying into the Titans’ offense after one good week, but Tony Pollard at this price is hard to ignore. You’re getting a lead back coming off a 25-carry, 161-yard, two-touchdown performance at essentially a WR3/WR4 number. The 49ers may be coming off a bye, but this defense isn’t a top-10 unit and is still missing key pieces with Fred Warner and Nick Bosa out. Even if Tennessee only scores 14 points, I’d take Pollard at +300 or better, especially with his red-zone role. Any back projected for 15 touches should be shorter than +250.

Jordan Love could be busy against the Broncos. The Packers’ rushing attack has injuries and ailments in Week 15 and faces an extremely tough interior defense from Denver, ranked No. 7 in run stop win rate at ESPN. Love will be dropping back more and looking to get rid of the ball quickly, with the Broncos’ pass rush coming after him. Denver runs man at one of the highest rates in the league and Love boasts a Top 3 passer rating vs. man coverage. He’s completed at least 22 passes in each game this season and most Week 15 projections sit at 19 or higher with a ceiling of 22 completions.

Love has thrown seven touchdown passses in his last two games, and even against a stingy Denver defense, I'm taking him to hit the Over at plus money.

The Saints' offense is bottom five in the league in scoring, turnovers lost, passing touchdowns, and the major rushing categories (yards, TDs, and per carry average).

The Saints have lost three straight ATS at home, and last week's upset at Tampa Bay was their first time topping the 20-point mark in eight games.

Tyler Shough scrambled for 55 yards on seven carries last week but 34 of those yards came on a single run. The rookie QB had been held below 20 rushing yards in four of his previous five starts and his previous career-high was a 22-yard game against Atlanta. He also didn't run much in college and on Sunday he faces a Carolina defense that contains quarterbacks on the ground. The Panthers have allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (10.2) and the second-fewest yards per rush attempt (2.8) to opposing QBs. They are dead-last in the league in pressure rate so they rarely flush quarterbacks out of the pocket. 

TeSlaa could jump up in the WR depth chart if Kalif Raymond is out or limited. He’s made the most of his limited targets the past two games, snatching four of five balls his way for a total of 55 yards and two touchdowns. The Rams secondary has given up some big gains through the air and TeSlaa tops the Lions in air yards per reception. His Week 15 projections range from 15 yards to 26.5 with most models north of 20 yards receiving. Los Angeles will have to pick its poison between St. Brown and Williams, leaving the 6-foot-4 TeSlaa to find gaps in the L.A. zone schemes.

Number is simply too low because Detroit can get there on one or two QB-friendly outlets, especially with the Rams’ pass rush forcing quicker throws

Justin Jefferson needs some love after suffering through a down year in 2025. Dallas’ soft secondary and zone schemes could be the perfect remedy, with this J.J. ranking among the best WRs in the league at breaking open zones.

Dak Prescott has faced two defenses similar to the Minnesota Vikings, in terms of blitz rate and how many bodies they stack in the box. And he's hurt them both with scrambles.

The Vikings blitz more than any team in the NFL, and Dak will be without his starting left tackle for the third game in a row. He's also facing a defense that sacks the quarterback at the fourth-highest rate in the league.

That makes his floor of 10 rushing yards very attractive. Mobile quarterbacks have hurt the Vikings this season, and Dak will be the latest to do so just as he did against the Lions and Broncos. 

The Dolphins have anchored their offense to Achane in the second half of the schedule. Miami is running at one of the highest rates and this rushing game jumped from a below-average ground attack to the second-best rushing offense in EPA per play and success rate per carry since Week 10. He’s scored four total touchdowns during that four-game span, including each of the past two games. His current ATTD priced of -120 is one of the lowest asks for a Achane touchdown all season, with this prop sitting around -150 over the past month. He’s a threat to run it in for six points or be on the receiving end of a TD pass, with seven rushing scores and four touchdown receptions so far in 2025. 

Pittsburgh has given up the seventh most receptions to tight ends so far in 2025 (amounting to the eighth most yards to TEs) and runs man coverage almost exclusively. That could benefit Tua, who sees a significant split versus man and zone schemes. Tagovailoa is Top 6 quarterback in terms of completion percentage and passer rating against man coverage and wouldn’t you know it: Waller thrives versus one-on-one schemes. He’s rating among the best TEs against man at PFF (No. 6) – a stark contrast to his output against zone coverage. He’s run routes on 68% of his snaps and with an extra day to heal and scheme, I expect Waller to haul in at least three balls. Projections for the Fins TE all sit about 2.5 catches with models ranging from 2.7 to 3.3 receptions on Monday night.

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.