NFL Picks

Trevor Lawrence ranks among the worst quarterbacks in the NFL in downfield completion rate, downfield passing grade, and average depth of target. He's also one of the slowest to get the ball out of his hands.

Seattle sacked him seven times last week, and now he faces a Rams defense that ranks fifth in pressures and sacks. They also employ a lot of zone defense, something Lawrence has struggled against much of his career.

Lawrence's completion rate when pressured is just 53.4% and he's likely to face a fair amount of medium-to-long situations on third down. These factors should combine to keep his passing total under 222 yards for the fourth time this year. 

The Los Angeles offense is going to lean on Williams this week with No. 1 wide receiver Puka Nacua (ankle) expected to miss this Week 7 tilt against Jacksonville. I also value the Los Angeles offensive line ranking first in PFF run block grade and 12th in run block win rate, while Jacksonville will counter with a 27th-ranked run stop win rate.

Stevenson may be losing some reps in the Patriots backfield but he’s the go-to guy inside the red zone. His 19 red-zone carries are 10 more than Henderson and New England takes on a Titans defense giving up a league high 1.8 rushing touchdowns per game. Week 7 projections like Stevenson to crack the goal line on Sunday.

Look for the New England defense to provide Maye with excellent field position, too. It could be a long day for interim Tennessee head coach Mike McCoy and QB Cam Ward, with enough three-and-outs to give the Patriots a string of chances in the red zone.

Chicago shouldn’t be able to get much done on the ground here against one of the 10 best defenses against the run by DVOA, and that’s going to put the onus on Caleb Williams to beat this weak secondary all by himself. I don’t believe he’s got the goods to do so, and to make matters worse D’Andre Swift is dealing with a groin injury. This is too much respect for Chicago.

Despite being hindered by an ankle injury in practice, Kamara will suit up on Sunday. The Pro Bowl RB has been playing through the injury and despite trade rumors surrounding him, he remains committed to the Saints. Kamara was limited to 31 yards on 10 carries against the Patriots stingy run defense last week but he has a much easier matchup in Week 7. He'll face a Bears squad that is 22nd in the league in defensive rush DVOA and 31st in rushing yards allowed per game (156.4). Kamara is averaging a modest 3.8 yards per rush this year but even with that subpar efficiency he should get enough carries to eclipse his rushing yards total of just 46.5.

Quinshon Judkins went 10-for-61 in his first game of the season and followed that up with rushing lines of 18/94, 21/82 and 23/110 before last week’s loss against Pittsburgh. In that one, he carried the ball only 12 times for 36 yards. Judkins should see much more favorable gamescript in Week 7 against a struggling defense, and with weather conditions potentially rainy and windy, I’ll look for Cleveland to focus on the run game. That should mean plenty of opportunities for the talented rookie to rack up rushing yards.

This Over 1.5 passing TD prop is about as high as you’ll see priced, but the matchup is too good to ignore. Dillon Gabriel threw two touchdowns in his overseas debut but came back to Earth last week against Pittsburgh, where the Steelers' pass rush gave him trouble. That shouldn't be the case against Miami, which ranks 25th in pressure rate and 31st in both EPA/play and EPA/dropback. Gabriel had 52 dropbacks last week, so the volume is clearly there—even if the efficiency wasn’t. With Cleveland's defense likely creating short fields and Miami traveling out of the Florida sun, everything lines up for a bounce-back spot. It's a strong number in a soft matchup.

Carolina should have more than enough offense to beat up on a winless Jets team that hasn't stopped anyone in the United States so far this season.

Mason Taylor broke out with five catches for 65 yards in Week 4, before logging nine receptions for 67 yards in Week 5. The rookie TE was limited to just a single catch against Denver last week but that was due to a horrific performance from Jets QB Justin Fields. While the Broncos are one of the best teams in the league at defending tight ends, the Panthers are the worst. The Carolina allows a league-high 74.0 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends while ranking last in DVOA against the position. With New York's No. 1 WR Garrett Wilson sidelined by a knee injury, expect more targets for Taylor.

Jefferson is back to his standard level of production during the past two weeks with Carson Wentz behind center for the Vikings, and he should easily hit his receptions total.

This is a buy-low spot for the defending champs who have lost back-to-back games but started the year 4-0 with wins against quality teams. The Vikings have faced a far easier schedule than the Eagles. Two of their three wins came against the Browns and Bengals who look like Bottom-5 teams, and the other was a fourth-quarter comeback against an injury-riddled Bears squad. With Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley, Philly should churn out yards on the ground against a Vikings defense that is 25th in the league in defensive rush EPA. And on the other side of the ball, I don't have faith in a Minnesota offense that ranks just 27th in EPA/play.

Rashee Rice was phenomenal as a rookie in 2023, nabbing 79 catches for 938 yards and seven scores on 102 targets. He finished with a 29/288/2 line in only three games a season ago before suffering his season-ending injury. The Las Vegas Raiders are below-average in defending the pass, so this isn’t a particularly tough matchup for Rice. Look for him to make some noise in his first NFL action in over a year.

The Chiefs' backfield can be frustrating, but I’m going back to Isiah Pacheco at this price in a strong home matchup against the Raiders. Brashard Smith has seen his role shrink, logging just six snaps in each of the last two games and now dealing with an illness. Kareem Hunt had only one red-zone carry last week compared to four for Pacheco. I'm not touching Hunt at +125 when Pacheco is available at 65 points longer. The Raiders are allowing 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game (T-27th), and that number jumps to 1.7 per game over their last three. They may have slowed the Titans last week, but the week before, they gave up three rushing scores to Jonathan Taylor and another to Ameer Abdullah. Pacheco is getting the work and has the matchup—this price is too good to pass up, but I wouldn't go past +170. The return of Rashee Rice might also open things up for the running game. 

The Giants’ offense is ascending right now, while, outside of the Eagles, the Broncos' four wins include victories over the Jets, Titans, and Jake Browning-led Bengals. The Giants can cause an upset here, but we should be bullish on them at least covering the spread.

Dart has rushed for more than 50 yards in all three of his starts. That said, the rookie QB is going to have a hard time finding running room against an elite Denver defense that swarms opposing QBs. The Broncos lead the NFL with 30 sacks and have allowed just 46 rushing yards on 20 carries to quarterbacks. The Giants haven't been calling many designed runs for Dart with 112 of his 167 rushing yards coming via scrambles. The Broncos have allowed just nine scrambles for 34 yards all year. And it isn't like they've faced immobile QBs either with games against Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, and Daniel Jones on their resume. 

This game should be competitive, and Taylor will get plenty of opportunities to touch the ball. He has hit the century mark on the ground three times this season, and this is an excellent chance for him to do so for a fourth time.

Taylor has rushed for a league-high 603 yards on 5.2 yards per pop and he's fresh off a 123-yard performance against Arizona. This is a lofty rushing yards total but the two-time Pro Bowler has rushed for more than 95 yards in eight of his last 11 games. The Chargers are sixth in the league in defensive dropback EPA but just 22nd in defensive rush EPA. That poor run defense has been exposed in the last four weeks with the Bolts surrendering 144.8 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per rush attempt. 

Deebo Samuel isn’t fully healthy, dealing with a heel injury and managing just 15 yards last week. Meanwhile, Jayden Daniels looks back to form, throwing three touchdowns in Week 6—including scores to Chris Moore and Luke McCaffrey. Head coach Dan Quinn also noted that WR1 Terry McLaurin will practice this week, but his status remains uncertain. In a strong indoor matchup against the Cowboys—who are giving up 2.0 passing touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers—both Moore and McCaffrey are back on the radar for Week 7. Moore is +1000 to score this week after posting an 83% route share in Week 6. He tied for the team lead in targets (5) and led all Washington receivers with 46 yards. At worst, Moore is the WR3 in a plus matchup with a quarterback hitting his stride. At best, he could function as the WR1 if Deebo is not at 100 percent and McLaurin sits again. At this number, it's a full-unit play.

Daniels has been playing without two of his top weapons the past couple of weeks, but Daniels still threw for three TDs in the Monday loss to Chicago and now faces a Cowboys defense that is bottom of the barrel vs. the pass, including allowing 2.5 passing TDs per game. They gave up 3 through the air to Bryce Young. You can only imagine what Daniels will do Sunday night. Three-plus passing TDs are +375. Just sayin'.

The Packers should have more than enough to get a road win by a touchdown or more against a banged up Arizona squad that is riding a four-game losing streak.

There’s some uncertainty at quarterback with Kyler Murray potentially returning, but as of Thursday, Bam Knight looks like the best bet to score for Arizona. The Cardinals are dealing with multiple midweek injuries at wide receiver, and Knight was clearly the back to back last week—I know, because I backed Michael Carter. Carter started, but Knight saw more touches and, more importantly, got both red-zone carries inside the 5, converting one for a touchdown. It’s a tougher matchup this week against the Packers, but +170 is still solid value for a goal-line back. Even if Jacoby Brissett ends up starting, I’m fine with this number. Knight closed at +140 last week, and the role is clearly there.

Bijan Robinson is second on the Falcons, and 18th in the NFL, with 67.6 receiving yards per game. Robinson saw a season-high eight targets last and reeled in six of them for 68 yards. He's hit the 100-yard receiving mark twice this year and has finished with fewer than 35.5 receiving yards just once. The 49ers usually do a good job at defending pass catchers out of the backfield but the season-ending injury to Fred Warner last week might change that. The four-time All-Pro is the best coverage linebacker in the league and his absence will be felt on Sunday night.

McCaffrey has logged at least six receptions with more than 50 receiving yards in all six of his games this year. The All-Pro running back is eighth in the league with 444 receiving yards and he's on pace to shatter the NFL record for most receiving yards by a running back in a season. The 49ers are getting back Pro Bowl TE George Kittle this week but WR Ricky Pearsall is still sidelined. And McCaffrey has been heavily involved in the passing game even with Kittle in the lineup which we saw in Week 1 when he had nine catches for 73 yards.

Kameron and Tez Johnson both caught touchdowns, and with Irving likely out again, the Bucs’ run game remains a non-factor. Over the last four games, the only QB not to throw for 250+ yards against Detroit is Joe Flacco. And last season, no defense gave up more passing yards per game than the Lions (244.5).

The MVP campaign rolls on for Baker in prime time.

It’s looking more likely that both Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin will miss Week 7, while Mike Evans is trending more probable than doubtful. That opens the door for more work in the passing game for Kameron Johnson—a name most bettors probably aren’t familiar with. Last week, without Godwin and Evans, Johnson played on 52% of snaps. That number jumped to 88% after Egbuka left the game. While Tez Johnson had the flashier usage and cashed at +500, it was Kameron Johnson who led the team in receiving with a 4/64/1 line. Both Johnsons should be heavily involved in a high-total indoor matchup, but I’m siding with the longer number—and that’s Kameron. With the way Baker Mayfield is spreading the ball, any pass-catcher seeing meaningful snaps is live to score.

It's strange that the Seahawks are still splitting snaps in their backfield between Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker III. Walker has rushed for 364 yards on 78 carries for 4.7 yards per carry while Charbonnet has picked up just 156 yards on 60 carries for a pathetic 2.6 ypa. Charbonnet is third-last in the league in rush yards over expected per attempt (-0.9) which shows that it isn't blocking that's been the issue. He's coming off a game against the Jaguars where he rushed for just 24 yards on 12 carries. This week he faces a Texans defense that is holding opposing RBs to 77.8 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry — the seventh-best number in the NFL.

The Seahawks have been a statistical darling through six games, and the Texans' two wins have unimpressively come against the 1-5 Tennessee Titans and Ravens without star quarterback Lamar Jackson (hamstring). Houston QB C.J. Stroud threw for just 6.7 yards per attempt and a 64.0% completion rate through the first three weeks, too, so beating up on the Titans and Ravens carries far less significance.

Given the tightness of this spread, bookies expect Anthony Richardson to get right and be the quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts when Week 10 rolls around. Indy's other option is Daniel Jones, who should warrant a spread closer to the field goal. The Atlanta Falcons seem to have their QB1 in Michael Penix Jr. after his strong finish to the season. Atlanta scored 24, 34, and 38 points in its final three games, showcasing plenty of firepower around Penix. I'm rolling with Atlanta in Berlin. 

This is the first time the NFL has ventured to Madrid, and they’re giving the Spanish crowds a solid matchup — if Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy enough to see Week 11. The dark cloud hovering over this one is the grass surface inside Santiago Bernabeu Stadium. That sod was replaced four times during Real Madrid’s most recent La Liga campaign, which was marred by injuries. Many are pointing to the integrity of the hybrid surface as the reason for all those ailments. A shitty field could slow down both the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins offenses. I’ll go Under 49.5 points.

Although the Dallas Cowboys' defense will be more stable under new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, it's hard to overlook a unit that was gashed on the ground and allowed a bottom-five mark in yards per play last season. Patrick Mahomes will torch them on the fast track at Jerry World, boasting a deep arsenal that includes a now-healthy Rashee Rice. With George Pickens joining CeeDee Lamb to bolster the Cowboys’ receiving corps, Dak Prescott should also be able to air it out — even if much of the damage comes in classic garbage-time mop-up duty at AT&T Stadium. The Kansas City Chiefs' defense lost key veterans in the secondary, including corner Charvarius Ward and safety Justin Reid. While their younger replacements may eventually settle into Steve Spagnuolo's system, it could take some time for them to get fully up to speed.

The Cincinnati Bengals have lost their last four games against the Baltimore Ravens and are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head matchups with their AFC North rivals. With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry spearheading a loaded offense, Baltimore's defense should also see a boost following the draft selections of safety Malaki Starks and edge rusher Mike Green. Back the Ravens to cover at home, where they went 5-3-1 ATS last season.

The Bears will have a new HC in Ben Johnson, and many people hold him in high regard for his ability to run an offense. He'll have a full complement of weapons to work with, including Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. And on defense, they should be stout in the trenches and on the outside. The Eagles, fresh off their Super Bowl victory, could be in for a letdown this year, and while this November clash is three months into the season, things could snowball if the team isn't 100% focused from Week 1. 

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.