The last time I saw a reigning champ take that hard a shit kicking, Burgess Meredith keeled over midway through “Rocky III”.
The Kansas City Chiefs’ drive for a historic Super Bowl three-peat was left to die in the locker room of the Superdome, getting absolutely shredded by the Philadelphia Eagles this past February.
The 40-22 loss was felt all the way down in the team’s weird subterranean bunker, rattling the foundations of the franchise and leaving questions for the 2025 season.
Is this the last dance for head coach Andy Reid?
Is Travis Kelce on his way out after getting engaged to Taylor Swift?
Was Patrick Mahomes’ downturn in 2024 a sign of things to come?
The hell if I know. I just want to bet on some football games.
We separate the NFL odds from the storytelling with my 2025 Kansas City Chiefs betting preview.
Kansas City Chiefs best bets
Read on for Jason's full analysis and Kansas City Chiefs breakdown!
Kansas City Chiefs odds for 2025
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +800 |
| Win conference | +325 |
| Win division | -110 |
| Make playoffs | -380 |
| Over 11.5 wins | +100 |
| Under 11.5 wins | -130 |
Best futures bet: Over 11.5 wins (+100)
Making it to the playoffs is always the focus when you’re on the Chiefs’ level.
But with the rest of the AFC West stepping up, that could mean having to win 12 games.
The Chiefs’ schedule is loaded with contenders, including Philadelphia, Baltimore, Detroit, Washington, Buffalo, and Houston. All but the Bills game comes in Arrowhead Stadium, however.
I do expect regression from last year’s 15 wins. Kansas City pulled out an 11-0 record in one-possession games in 2024 (4-7 ATS), and that luck will dry up.
A 12 or 13-win finish is absolutely in reach, especially when this offense gets everyone back.
Kansas City Chiefs at a glance: Pick your point spreads
Being the top dawg comes with big chalk. Turning a profit with the Chiefs has been tough the past three seasons, with the team barely sitting above 50% against the spread.
Look-ahead lines have Kansas City as a favorite in 16 of 17 games, and six of those lines sit at -6 or higher.
The Chiefs were 7-0 SU as faves of -6 or more, but just 1-6 ATS in those outings last year. They’re a rotten 9-15-2 ATS as chalk of six points or higher over the past three seasons.
What will win bets: Offense
Patrick Mahomes and the offense have had trouble putting up points the past two seasons.
Injuries to skill players and a poor offensive line have worked against KC. It sat 21st in red zone touchdown rate in 2024 and sputtered down the stretch, dropping to 18th in success rate in the final nine games (3-6 ATS).
The cardboard is still loaded with playmakers. Rashee Rice is suspended for six games and will boost this attack upon return, teaming up with Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and Travis Kelce.
New faces on the offensive line will help, too. Free agent Jaylon Moore and first-rounder Josh Simmons add beef to the left side of the line that was embarrassed by the Eagles on Super Sunday.
Run blocking is sound for a trio of rushers, as KC ranked No. 7 in run block win rate last year.
What will lose bets: Run Defense
Steve Spagnuolo’s defense wasn’t in a great place heading into the playoffs, and it got spanked in front of a global audience in the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs' stop unit started showing cracks in the second half of the schedule, most notably against the run. KC gave up 4.6 yards per run to foes in the last eight games, with five opponents topping 100 yards (and another finished with 94 rushing yards).
Kansas City’s aggressive pass rush and secondary continue to be its strengths, but opponents can circumvent all that by handing off. That chews up clock and dominates possession, parking Mahomes & Co. on the sideline.
Kansas City Chiefs schedule + spot bet: Nothing weird
The AFC champs have a challenging slate of games, with a schedule ranked 11th in SOS. The AFC West throws a lot at Kansas City, along with a bunch of teams joining KC near the top of the Super Bowl futures.
All in all, though, there are no real snags to the Chiefs’ calendar. They open versus the Los Angeles Chargers in Brazil, and due to that neutral-site showcase, they play only two true road games in the first eight weeks.
Kansas City gets eight primetime or featured matchups in 2025, including a Thanksgiving Day trip to Dallas in Week 13. It avoids any schedule crunches and is the only NFL team that doesn’t play back-to-back games away from home.
Spot bet: Week 13 at Dallas (Thanksgiving) -5.5, 47.5
The Cowboys' annual Thanksgiving contest puts America’s Team in a tight bind, stuffing three games into 10 days.
This is nothing new for the Cowboys, but they’re not usually playing the reigning AFC champs in that window.
Dallas is 3-11 ATS on Turkey Day over the last 14 years.
Pat’s All That
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Win MVP | +650 |
| Lead NFL in passing yards | +800 |
| Over 4024.5 passing yards | -110 |
| Under 4024.5 passing yards | -110 |
| Over 27.5 passing touchdowns | -110 |
| Under 27.5 passing touchdowns | -110 |
Patrick Mahomes best bet: Over 27.5 passing touchdowns (-110)
Mahomes has thrown for 26 and 27 touchdowns the past two seasons, a sizable drop from the 41 TD connections in 2022.
The injuries to the receiving corps and poor pass protection took a lot of pop out of this passing game, leaving Mahomes to throw short or behind the line of scrimmage.
Reid and OC Matt Nagy need to find a way to stretch this passing game. Rice’s six-game ban stings, but Brown and Worthy are notable deep threats.
Season-long models bounce around 30 touchdowns for Mahomes, and that's factoring in him potentially sitting out Week 18. The AFC West could be tight enough that this game actually carries weight come January.
Kansas City Chiefs trend: Rare pups
The Chiefs aren’t often underdogs, and 2025 look-ahead lines are giving KC points in only one game this season: +2.5 at Buffalo in Week 9.
Including postseason games, Kansas City is 12-7 SU and 13-5-1 ATS as a point spread underdog since Mahomes took over in 2018.
More NFL team previews
| Bills | Ravens | Texans | Broncos |
| Dolphins | Bengals | Colts | Chiefs |
| Patriots | Browns | Jaguars | Raiders |
| Jets | Steelers | Titans | Chargers |
| Cowboys | Bears | Falcons | Cardinals |
| Giants | Lions | Panthers | Rams |
| Eagles | Packers | Saints | 49ers |
| Commanders | Vikings | Buccaneers | Seahawks |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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