There’s more distance between the Miami Dolphins’ floor and ceiling than a $100 million beachfront mansion.
The Dolphins have plenty of positives. Unfortunately, those are often accompanied by a big “IF”.
If Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy, this offense can be elite.
If the defensive line can get pressure (and stay healthy), this stop unit will hold up.
And if Miami can avoid the perils of a treacherous start to the 2025 schedule, head coach Mike McDaniel may still have a job come the Week 12 bye.
Oddsmakers are “iffy” on the Fins, setting them as underdogs in 11 of their 17 games. However, 11 of their look-ahead lines are parked between a field goal (-3 to +3), showing just how much the fortunes could swing in South Beach.
I may need to consult a Magic Eight Ball to get through my 2025 Miami Dolphins NFL betting preview.
Miami Dolphins best bets
Read on for Jason's full analysis and Miami Dolphins breakdown!
Miami Dolphins odds for 2025
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +8000 |
| Win conference | +3000 |
| Win division | +700 |
| Make playoffs | +225 |
| Over 7.5 wins | -105 |
| Under 7.5 wins | -115 |
Best futures bet: Under 7.5 wins (-115)
There’s a fragility to the Miami Dolphins and we’re not just talking about Tua’s noggin.
This team is tiptoeing on chaos, with the star QB one hit away from calling it a career, a volatile Tyreek Hill adding distractions, and McDaniel’s “easy breezy” coaching style losing the guidance of many veteran players.
All the Fins need it a push in the wrong direction.
That push could be a grueling start the season, which puts Miami on the road in five of the first eight weeks. The Dolphins are favorites only four times in the first 11 games.
A stumble to start the season will be compounded by the rest of the AFC East enjoying a soft entry into the schedule.
Miami Dolphins at a glance: McDaniel could be done
Bleak expectations, offseason losses, and a rash of camp injuries have lifted Mike McDaniel to the top of the odds for “First Coach to be Fired” in 2025.
The kid genius made Miami one of the most efficient attacks in the league but his ability to command an entire team as a head coach is questionable.
If McDaniel survives this season, it will be due to his offensive stars staying healthy and defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver making Miami a dangerous defense once again.
What will win bets: Improved pass rush
One of the areas that has a very high ceiling in Miami is the defense, most specifically the front seven. Again… “IF” they stay healthy, which has been a problem in camp.
The addition of Matthew Judon and return of Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips from injuries gives optimism to Weaver’s defense. This unit already includes standout rusher Zach Sieler, versatile LB Chop Robinson, and first-round monster DT Kenneth Grant.
Last year’s group couldn’t generate pressure, register sacks, or score takeaways. The 2023 Dolphins defense, however, was very dangerous, boasting a high pressure rate, the third most sacks, and 27 forced turnovers. No surprise that was Vic Fangio’s group.
Getting back to that level of disruption will help Dolphins backers cash in.
What will lose bets: Offensive line
Losing stalwart Terron Armstead is a massive blow to this team. Miami tried to absorb that hit by adding guard James Daniels in free agency and trading up to draft Jonah Savaiinaea in the second round.
That still has the Dolphins protectors rating out among the bottom 5 offensive lines in the league, finishing 28th in pass block win rate at ESPN last season. Not what you want to see when the franchise player is one hit away from calling it a career.
This o-line is also lacking in run blocking, ranking 26th in run block win rate. The Dolphins averaged a measly 4.0 yards per carry and lugged the 25th success rate per handoff in 2024.
Miami Dolphins schedule + spot bet: The going gets tough
Overall, the Dolphins’ schedule ranks just 21st in SOS and the team gets an 11-day rest edge over opponents, according to Sharp Football Analysis.
The first 11 weeks, however, is the calendar equivalent of dolphin-killing documentary “The Cove”.
Five of the first eight games are away from home and Miami faces some of its softest opponents in enemy territory with stops at Indianapolis, Carolina, Cleveland and Atlanta.
That stretch also compresses six games into 31 days between a Week 4 and Week 9. Oh, the Fins also fly to Spain to play Washington in Week 11.
It’s not all gloom and doom.
Miami can make a late-season push with winnable games against New Orleans, the Jets, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, and New England in the closing six games – spreads ranging from -6 to +3.
Spot bet: Week 8 at Atlanta +1.5, 46.5
Miami plays back-to-back road games and three of four away from home when it comes to the ATL in Week 8.
This will also be the Dolphins’ fourth road game in six weeks and carries a dash of look-ahead spot, with a short week to ready for Baltimore on Thursday night in Week 9.
Miami is a slight 1.5-point road underdog on October 26 – a role that has produced a 3-13 SU and 6-10 ATS mark under coach McDaniel. That includes a 2-5 ATS count as road pups last season.
TDs for Tua
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Win MVP | +6000 |
| Lead NFL in Passing Yards | +2500 |
| Over 3449.5 Passing Yards | -110 |
| Under 3449.5 Passing Yards | -110 |
| Over 22.5 Passing Touchdowns | -110 |
| Under 22.5 Passing Touchdowns | -110 |
Tua Tagovailoa best bet: Over 22.5 Touchdown Passes (-110)
Tua tossed 19 touchdowns strikes in only 11 games last season and this current prop total seems to be counting on the Dolphins quarterback to miss time in 2025.
How else can you explain that number when projections range from 26 to 28 touchdown passes?
Hill and Waddle have a high ceiling, Achane had six receiving TDs in 2024, and when Tua’s healthy, McDaniel’s playbook shines in the red zone.
The Dolphins’ defensive opposition isn’t too stiff either. Indianapolis, the Jets, Carolina, Atlanta, Washington, New Orleans, Cincinnati and Tampa Bay all give up a ton of points.
Miami Dolphins trend: Dismal dogs
The Dolphins don’t do much with any extra points being forked over by oddsmakers.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 5-16 SU and 8-13 ATS as an underdog in the regular season, including a 3-13 SU and 6-10 ATS count as a road pup.
Miami Dolphins as road underdogs
- Week 1 at Indianapolis +1.5
- Week 3 at Buffalo +8.5
- Week 15 at Pittsburgh +3
- Week 18 at New England +2.5
More NFL team previews
Want to see Jason's forecast for the rest of the NFL? Check out all of his NFL team previews below!
| Bills | Ravens | Texans | Broncos |
| Dolphins | Bengals | Colts | Chiefs |
| Patriots | Browns | Jaguars | Raiders |
| Jets | Steelers | Titans | Chargers |
| Cowboys | Bears | Falcons | Cardinals |
| Giants | Lions | Panthers | Rams |
| Eagles | Packers | Saints | 49ers |
| Commanders | Vikings | Buccaneers | Seahawks |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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