Carnell Tate still holds a comfortable lead in the NFL Rookie of the Year odds, and the jostling continues at the top among the defensive first-year standouts.
Tate is one of the few shining bright spots for the Tennessee Titans amid an otherwise dismal season so far. He worked his way up the board slowly and has now been the OROY favorite for a few weeks, with a decent gap between him and Broncos running back Jonah Coleman.
Meanwhile, it's a fierce battle atop the defensive rookie of the year odds, with Arvell Reese and David Bailey tied. Those two have been sprinting away from the pack in the NFL odds for a while now.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds
| Player Name |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Carnell Tate |
21% |
 Jonah Coleman |
15% |
 Denzel Boston |
11% |
| KC Concepcion |
10% |
 Antonio Williams |
5% |
 Carson Beck |
5% |
 Fernando Mendoza |
5% |
| Mike Washington Jr. |
5% |
Odds as of 11-4. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
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NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year prediction
Although Carnell Tate spent the majority of his time in the shadow of both Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka at Ohio State, he’s an excellent route runner who brings little ego to a Tennessee Titans offense looking for a No. 1 WR.
Tate was an appealing value play while sitting fifth for a while in this market. But he shot up quickly after erupting for 145 yards on nine catches in Week 4. He was then silent in Week 5, and inconsistent play may be typical on an overall struggling Titans offense.
But Tate then bounced back swiftly in Week 6 with another productive performance while posting 70 yards on six catches, and his first career regular-season touchdown grab. He remained steady in Week 7, with a respectable 69 yards on five receptions. However, Tate did suffer a shoulder injury and missed Week 8.
OROY Pick: Carnell Tate (21% probability at Kalshi)
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds
| Player Name | Probability |
|---|---|
 Arvell Reese |
29% |
 David Bailey |
29% |
 Jacob Rodriguez |
15% |
| Sonny Styles |
12% |
 Gabe Jacas |
7% |
 Dillon Thieneman |
3% |
| Anthony Hill Jr. |
2% |
Odds as of 11-4. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year prediction
The New York Jets snagged their edge rusher at No. 2 after selecting David Bailey, who’s fresh off a 14.5-sack season with Texas Tech.
Paired with Will McDonald IV on the other side, the two could complement each other well and give the Gang Green rookie a boost. Bailey shined in Week 1 while recording four tackles and a sack. He followed that up with another sack in Week 2, alongside three tackles (including one for a loss) and a quarterback hit.
But easily his best performance thus far came in Week 5, when Bailey erupted for three sacks and seven tackles. He's now already registered 5.5 sacks this season. His dominance continued in Week 6 while forcing two fumbles, and Bailey tallied another half sack in Week 7.
He's now locked in a tight race with Giants pass-rusher Arvell Reese, though Bailey did miss Week 8 due to a groin injury.
DROY Pick: David Bailey (29% probability at Kalshi)
Popular NFL futures markets
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year history
Here's a look at the recent award history (preseason favorite and winner odds courtesy of Sports Odds History):
| Year | Favorite | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 |  Ashton Jeanty |
 Tetairoa McMillan |
| 2024 | Caleb Williams |
Jayden Daniels |
| 2023 |  Bijan Robinson |
 C.J. Stroud |
| 2022 |  George Pickens & Kenny Pickett |
Garrett Wilson |
| 2021 |  Trevor Lawrence |
 Ja'Marr Chase |
| 2020 | Joe Burrow |
 Justin Herbert |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray |
Kyler Murray |
| 2018 | Saquon Barkley |
Saquon Barkley |
| 2017 | Leonard Fournette |
 Alvin Kamara |
| 2016 |  Ezekiel Elliott |
Dak Prescott |
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year winners by position
| Position | OROY winners |
|---|---|
| Running back | 40 |
| Quarterback | 12 |
| Wide Receiver | 2 |
| Tight end | 1 |
Bears legend Mike Ditka became the first — and so far only — tight end to win Offensive Rookie of the Year when he received the honor in 1961.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year history
Here's a look at the recent award history (preseason favorite and winner odds courtesy of Sports Odds History):
| Year | Favorite | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Abdul Carter |
 Carson Schwesinger |
| 2024 |  Dallas Turner and  Laiatu Latu |
 Jared Verse |
| 2023 | Will Anderson Jr. |
Will Anderson Jr. |
| 2022 |  Aidan Hutchinson |
Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner |
| 2021 | Micah Parsons |
Micah Parsons |
| 2020 | Chase Young |
Chase Young |
| 2019 | Devin Bush |
 Nick Bosa |
| 2018 | Bradley Chubb |
Shaquille Leonard |
| 2017 | Reuben Foster |
Marshon Lattimore |
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year winners by position
| Position | DROY winners |
|---|---|
| Linebacker | 29 |
| Defensive end | 13 |
| Cornerback | 10 |
| Defensive tackle | 7 |
| Safety | 2 |
A safety hasn’t won NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year honors in over 20 years, dating back to when Mark Carrier (1990) and Erik McMillan (1988) won the award twice over a three-year span.
NFL Rookie of the Year FAQ
Carnell Tate is the current favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, while David Bailey and Arvell Reese are tied in the Defensive Rookie of the Year odds.
Tetairoa McMillan was named the Offensive Rookie of the Year, while Carson Schwesinger was the Defensive Rookie of the Year.
The last No. 1 overall pick to win Offensive Rookie of the Year was Kyler Murray in 2019.
