US Presidential Election Betting Odds: Can Trump Run Again in 2028?

U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance is the current favorite to win the 2028 U.S. Election, but will Donald Trump seek a third term?

Michael McClymont • Senior News Editor

Sep 4, 2025 • 11:40 ET • 5 min read

Photo By - Imagn Images. President Donald Trump speaks during the American 250 kickoff event on July 3, 2025, at the Iowa State Fairgrouds. Cody Scanlan/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Donald Trump returned to office with his 2024 U.S. Presidential election victory, and odds are already out on who will become president in 2028.

The U.S. Constitution limits presidents to two terms, but Trump hasn't ruled out making an attempt at a third term.

2028 US Election odds

Candidate	Odds to win 2028 US election at
J.D. Vance	+200
Gavin Newsom	+600
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	+1400
Pete Buttigieg	+2200
Josh Shapiro	+2500
Marco Rubio	+2500
Donald Trump Jr.	+3300
Andrew Beshear	+3300
Ron DeSantis	+3300
Gretchen Whitmer	+3300
Ivanka Trump	+3300
Wes Moore	+3300
Greg Abbott	+3500
Nikki Haley	+4000
J.B. Pritzker	+4500

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of Sept. 4, 2025. Implied probability in betting is the likelihood of an event occurring as inferred from the odds offered by a sportsbook or the market.

Currently, U.S. vice president J.D. Vance is the favorite to win the 2028 election. His odds of +200 carry an implied probability of 33%.

Trump isn't listed on the oddsboard, likely because he's currently ineligible from running again. His offspring Donald Trump Jr. (+3,300), Ivanka Trump (+3,300), and Eric Trump (+6,600) are among the longshots listed.

However, Trump has hinted at changing the Constitution to allow for another run.

California Governor Gavin Newsom said in August that Trump's team has sent him more than 20 hats that read "Trump 2028."

"You think he's joking about 2028?" Newsom said.

In fact, Trump told NBC in March that "there are methods" for amending the Constitution.

"A lot of people want me to do it," Trump said at the time. "But, I mean, I basically tell them we have a long way to go, you know, it's very early in the administration."

This market is one worth watching as Trump's second term progresses. If he hints further at making a third run, the president is likely to rocket to the top of the oddsboard. The Republicans were previously favored to be the winning party in 2028.

2028 US Election Winning Party Odds

Winning Party	Odds to win 2028 US election at	Implied probability
Republican	-110	52%
Democrats	-110	52%
Independent	+2200	4%

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of Sept. 4, 2025.

Among the celebrities found on the 2028 U.S. Presidential election oddsboard are famed TV host Oprah Winfrey (+10,000), sports personality Stephen A. Smith (+10,000), songstress Taylor Swift (+12,500), actor Matthew McConaughey (+15,000), and UFC president Dana White (+25,000).

Covers US presidential election betting tools

US presidential election winners

Year	Winner	Electoral votes	Popular %
1789	George Washington	69	NA
1792	George Washington	132	NA
1796	John Adams	71	NA
1800	Thomas Jefferson	73	NA
1804	George Washington	162	NA
1808	James Madison	122	NA
1812	James Madison	128	NA
1816	James Monroe	183	NA
1820	James Monroe	231	NA
1824	John Quincy Adams	84	30.9
1828	Andrew Jackson	178	56.0
1832	Andrew Jackson	219	54.2
1836	Martin Van Buren	170	50.8
1840	William Henry Harrison	234	52.9
1844	James K. Polk	170	49.5
1848	Zachary Taylor	163	47.3
1852	Franklin Pierce	254	50.8
1856	James Buchanan	174	45.3
1860	Abraham Lincoln	180	39.3
1864	Abraham Lincoln	212	55.0
1868	Ulysses S. Grant	214	56.7
1872	Ulysses S. Grant	286	55.6
1876	Rutherford B. Hayes	184	48.0
1880	James A. Garfield	214	48.3
1884	Grover Cleveland	219	48.5
1888	Benjamin Harrison	233	47.8
1892	Grover Cleveland	277	46.1
1896	William McKinley	271	51.0
1900	William McKinley	292	51.7
1904	Theodore Roosevelt	336	56.4
1908	William Howard Taft	321	51.6
1912	Woodrow Wilson	435	41.8
1916	Woodrow Wilson	277	49.2
1920	Warren G. Harden	404	60.3
1924	Calvin Coolidge	382	54.1
1928	Herbert Hoover	444	58.0
1932	Franklin D. Roosevelt	472	57.3
1936	Franklin D. Roosevelt	523	60.2
1940	Franklin D. Roosevelt	449	54.7
1944	Franklin D. Roosevelt	432	53.3
1948	Harry S. Truman	303	49.4
1952	Dwight D. Eisenhower	442	54.9
1956	Dwight D. Eisenhower	457	57.4
1960	John F. Kennedy	303	49.7
1964	Lyndon B. Johnson	486	51.1
1968	Richard M. Nixon	301	43.4
1972	Richard M. Nixon	520	60.7
1976	Jimmy Carter	297	50.0
1980	Ronald W. Reagan	489	50.4
1984	Ronald W. Reagan	525	58.8
1988	George H.W. Bush	426	53.4
1992	Bill Clinton	370	43.0
1996	Bill Clinton	379	49.2
2000	George W. Bush	271	47.9
2004	George W. Bush	286	50.7
2008	Barack Obama	365	52.9
2012	Barack Obama	332	50.9
2016	Donald Trump	304	46.0
2020	Joe Biden	306	51.3

Only three U.S. Presidents have received 60% or more of the popular vote since the metric was recorded. They include Warren G. Harding in 1920 (60.3), Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 (60.2), and Richard Nixon in 1972 (60.7).

US presidential election trends

Only 38% of presidents have won consecutive elections since 1900.
The average age of the president at inauguration is 55.
A candidate has won the popular vote but lost the election five times in U.S. presidential election history.
James Buchanan is the only bachelor to be elected president.

Betting on the election in the United States

U.S. states do not allow for election betting in an effort to protect election integrity and the democratic process. Legal betting sites in the United States don’t offer election odds to Americans.

Betting on the US election from Canada

Canadians have plenty of options when it comes to placing wagers on the U.S. election. The top political betting sites on our list are permitted to offer election odds within the regulated Ontario sports betting marketplace, along with all other Canadian provinces. Additionally, bettors in other countries can bet on the U.S. election.

In Ontario, there are multiple legal options to place bets including:

BetMGM: The sportsbook best known for its flagship US brand has expanded in Europe and is among the market leaders in Canadian gambling

bet365: Maybe the biggest name in global sports betting, bet365 allows bets on not only the winning president but also the winner in most states

DraftKings: One of America's leading sportsbooks also allows punters to try their luck on presidential betting in Ontario

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US election betting odds FAQs

Yes. Some betting sites provide odds on the U.S. presidential election, but betting on elections is not legal in the United States and state-regulated books do not offer these odds.

Donald Trump rolled to victory at closing odds of -6600.

Betting odds are one of the indicators of public sentiment regarding the outcome of elections. When people place bets on political events, they are expressing their opinions and predictions based on the information available to them at the time. However, while betting odds can provide insights into public sentiment, they are not infallible predictors. Political events are complex, and unexpected developments can occur, leading to shifts in public opinion. Additionally, betting odds are influenced by the amount of money wagered on each outcome.

Betting odds for a presidential election are a way of expressing the probability of a particular outcome happening. The odds represent the bookmakers' assessment of the likelihood of a candidate winning, and are presented in different formats, including fractional odds, decimal odds, and moneyline odds. lower odds indicate a higher likelihood of winning, while higher odds suggest a lower probability. It's important to note that odds can change based on betting activity, polling data, and various other factors. They reflect the bookmakers' assessment of the situation and the balance of bets placed by the public.

Yes, but only in Ontario. American bettors can not place election bets with DraftKings in the US.

Yes, bet365 allows election betting in Ontario. Bettors in the United States can not place election bets.

BetMGM accepts bets on the 2024 presidential election but only in Ontario. American bettors can not place bets.

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Michael McClymont

Senior News Editor

Michael has been involved in sports journalism since 2002, when he had his first article published in a newspaper (remember those?). In the time since, he's had numerous roles as a reporter and editor, including stints at theScore as a copy editor and NFL news editor, and Sportsbook Review as a publishing editor. He's been featured on CBC's network of radio stations, providing analysis on the NFL and the sports betting industry.