2024 Presidential Election Odds: Joe Biden Dropping Out of Race

A wild eight-day stretch has sent the 2024 presidential election odds landscape into a spin cycle, with Donald Trump seeing his lead over Kamala Harris shrink:

• Donald Trump -175
• Kamala Harris +137

A July 13 attempt on Donald Trump's life at a campaign stop in Pennsylvania made him a bigger favorite than ever to win the 2024 US election. And if that weren't enough to rattle even the most unflappable politics junkie, incumbent Joe Biden ended weeks of speculation about his future by formally announcing his intention to not seek re-election in November:

pic.twitter.com/RMIRvlSOYw

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 21, 2024

Through it all, Trump remains a comfortable favorite at -188 to serve a second non-consecutive term, while current Vice President Kamala Harris has soared to +175 as the presumptive Democratic candidate.

With the US election still 3 1/2 months away – leaving plenty of time for more chaos – let's look at the 2024 election odds to find out who will become the next president of the United States. 

2024 US presidential election odds

To give context to the next election odds, we've provided the implied probability along with each candidate's odds of becoming the next president of the United States in 2024.

Candidate	Odds to win 2024 US election at	Implied probability
Donald Trump	-175	63.6%
Kamala Harris	+137	42.1%
Michelle Obama	+4,000	2.4%
Hillary Clinton	+5,000	1.9%
Robert Kennedy Jr.	+5,000	1.9%
JD Vance	+6,600	1.5%
Gavin Newsom	+10,000	1%
Mark Kelly	+15,000	0.7%
Gretchen Whitmer	+20,000	0.5%
Josh Shapiro	+20,000	0.5%
Wes Moore	+20,000	0.5%
Nikki Haley	+20,000	0.5%
John Fetterman	+20,000	0.5%
J.B. Pritzker	+20,000	0.5%
Pete Buttigieg	+20,000	0.5%
Bernie Sanders	+20,000	0.5%
Joe Manchin	+20,000	0.5%
Jamie Dimon	+30,000	0.3%
Elizabeth Warren	+30,000	0.3%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	+30,000	0.3%
Josh Hawley	+30,000	0.3%
Oprah Winfrey	+30,000	0.3%
Mark Cuban	+30,000	0.3%
John Kerry	+30,000	0.3%
Thomas Massie	+30,000	0.3%

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of July 26, 2024. Implied probability in betting is the likelihood of an event occurring as inferred from the odds offered by a sportsbook or the market.

Latest US Presidential Election odds updates 2024

Favorites to win the 2024 US presidential election

Shortly after the inauguration, Vice President Kamala Harris was atop the presidential odds board at +350, with Biden close behind at +400, and Trump in third place at +650.

Those odds have seen a ton of movement, with Trump now at -188 and Harris at +140 following Joe Biden's withdrawal announcement.

Donald Trump's odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

Anyone who thought Trump would fade away after losing the 2020 election was very wrong. Trump has capitalized on a tumultuous first term from Joe Biden to position himself as a significant -200 favorite after the first debate, the failed attempt on his life, and a stirring speech at the Republican National Convention.

It wasn't so much that Trump impressed in the debate. His rants featured many of the grievance politics and lies that have made him such a divisive figure. However, he at least displayed the enthusiasm that has won him support, while Biden's performance lived up to the nickname of "Sleepy" Joe Biden that Trump bestowed upon him during the last election cycle.

Trump's recent brush with death should only serve to galvanize voters who were already on his side, and might earn him sympathy and support from those on the fence.

It hasn't been all smooth sailing for Trump, who has seen his odds rise and plummet over the last few years. We've seen his odds peak at plus money, especially when legal troubles reared their heads and rivals within the GOP gained steam. However, Trump proved his MAGA brand of politics is in lockstep with Republican voters when he destroyed the other GOP candidates in the primaries without even bothering to take part in the debates.

He has also sidestepped the brunt of legal damage despite facing four trials. His legal team has managed to push most of those trials until after the election, and while he was recently found guilty of 34 charges in his New York hush money trial, his odds only briefly shifted to +120 before immediately bouncing back to -150 and getting even shorter from there.

Kamala Harris' odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

With Biden choosing to drop out, the smoothest transition for the Democrats is to pivot toward Vice President Harris. The 59-year-old is significantly younger and sharper, and she also has the political credentials to be the nominee. Biden also offered Harris his endorsement in announcing his withdrawal from the race. 

My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term. My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best… pic.twitter.com/x8DnvuImJV

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 21, 2024

However, Harris had a rocky tenure as VP and struggled to break ground with her two biggest projects: border migration and national voting reform. She might be better on the debate podium than Biden, but she's also even less liked, with her approval rating sitting at just 38.4%. 

Multiple polls have also indicated that Harris might not perform any better than Biden. In averages of national polls fielded between February 2023 and January of this year, Harris underperformed Biden by 2.3 percentage points in hypothetical head-to-head matchups against Trump.

That said, Harris might see a boost based on who she selects as her running mate. The latest vice president odds have Arizona senator Mark Kelly as the front-runner at +150, with Pennsylvania Governor Mark Shapiro next in line at +300.

Gavin Newsom's odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

If the Democrats choose to move on from Biden, it might make sense for them to do a hard reset altogether and nominate a candidate outside the Biden/Harris ticket. Gavin Newsom makes the most sense in that spot and he moved from +2,000 to +550 after the debate before shifting back to +10,000 as of July 24.

Newsom has the national profile, the fund-raising ability, and the political acumen to take over, and he's already viewed as the most likely candidate to lead the Democrat party in the next election cycle. 

While Harris might ostensibly be next in line as VP, Newsom polls much better and Michelle Obama doesn't have the political credentials to compete with either. That said, political analysts have pointed out that if the Dems sideline Harris for Newsom, they could lose Black female voters — a demographic they need to lock down if they want to win.

In addition, while Newsom looks like a possible replacement, he has (at least publicly) shot down the notion. When asked by reporters after the debate if he was ready to replace Biden, Newsom called the idea “a non sequitur" and said he has "his back 100 percent.”

If you watch and share one thing make it this. pic.twitter.com/mHRHH0TWuo

— Adam Parkhomenko (@AdamParkhomenko) June 28, 2024

Michelle Obama's odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

Former First Lady Michelle Obama just won't drop off the board. She currently has the third-shortest odds at +2,500 despite not publicly showing any interest in the position and Biden still leading the party. However, there was a rumor of an Obama party takeover, and despite that looking like a combination of wishful thinking and conspiracy theory, it has skewed the odds.

Those rumors were fueled by an opinion piece in the New York Post from Cindy Adams, who claimed that the plan is for Biden to step aside citing health concerns, and hand over reigns to Michelle at the Democratic convention in August.

This is a rumor that just won't go away and that's because of Biden's low popularity and the notion that the Dems need a different candidate to energize the voter base against Trump. That said, this seems like a pipe dream for leftists, and at this point in the election cycle, it's highly unlikely that Obama is a legitimate candidate.

Robert Kennedy Jr.'s odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

The 69-year-old scion of the prestigious Kennedy family, Kennedy emerged as a dark horse last year when he announced he would run for the Democratic Party nomination. He surged up to +900 on the presidential odds board following interviews with Joe Rogan and Piers Morgan, but it soon became apparent that many of his supporters were conservative-leaning and he had no chance of actually winning the party leadership. 

After plummeting in polls, RFK Jr. announced in October that he would run as an independent, and he currently sits at +5,000. Considering that no third-party candidate has even come close to being competitive in an election (Ross Perot gaining 19% of the popular vote in 1992 was the best showing from an independent in the last century), fade the polarizing Kennedy at any price. 

That said, Kennedy's biggest impact on the election will likely be which side he takes more votes away from. While RFK Jr. recently suggested that Biden drop out because he has a better chance of beating Trump, his tactics seem more suited to steal MAGA voters. It's telling that Trump recently went on the attack against Kennedy, declaring that a vote for him would be a “wasted protest vote” and that he’d “even take Biden over Junior.”

2024 presidential election Democratic candidate odds  

Nomination Winner		Implied probability
Kamala Harris	-10,000	99%
Michelle Obama	+3,300	2.9%
Hillary Clinton	+4,000	2.4%
Gavin Newsom	+8,000	1.2%
Gretchen Whitmer	+15,000	0.7%

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of July 26, 2024.

With Biden dropping out, oddsmakers now have Harris as a monumental favorite.

Winning party odds

Party		Implied probability
Republican	-175	63.6%
Democratic	+137	42.1%
Independent	+4,000	2.4%

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of July 26, 2024.

Gender of next presidential election winner

Gender		Implied probability
Male	-334	77%
Female	+240	29.4%

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of July 19, 2024. 

Not only has the United States never had a female president, but only one has even secured a party nomination — Hillary Clinton, who lost to Trump in 2016.

US presidential election winners

Only three US Presidents have received 60% or more of the popular vote since the metric was recorded. They include Warren G. Harding in 1920 (60.3), Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 (60.2), and Richard Nixon in 1972 (60.7).

US presidential election trends

• Only 38% of presidents have won consecutive elections since 1900.
• The average age of the president at inauguration is 55.
• A candidate has won the popular vote but lost the election five times in US presidential election history.
• James Buchanan is the only bachelor to be elected president.

2020 US Electoral map

This map visualizes the distribution of electoral votes for each state in the 2020 US Election. Republican wins are denoted by red states, while Democratic wins are represented by blue states. Explore the map to discover both popular vote and electoral vote figures by hovering over each state.

2020 voter turnout map

This interactive map provides insight into the voter turnout rates during the 2020 US Election. Hover over individual states to reveal precise percentage figures, with darker colors indicating higher voter turnout rates. Minnesota led all state with an impressive 80% turnout, while only 55% of eligible voters in Oklahoma showed up to the polls to cast a ballot.

2024 US presidential election key upcoming dates

Betting on the election in the United States

US states do not allow for election betting in an effort to protect election integrity and the democratic process. Legal betting sites in the United States don’t offer election odds to Americans. 

Betting on the US election from Canada

Canadians have plenty of options when it comes to placing wagers on the US election. The top political betting sites on our list are permitted to offer election odds within the regulated Ontario sports betting marketplace, along with all other Canadian provinces. Additionally, bettors in other countries can bet on the U.S. election.

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