2024 Presidential Election Betting Odds

Trump's mounting legal woes aren't slowing him down as he's surged past Joe Biden in the latest 2024 US Election odds.

Feb 28, 2024 • 07:22 ET • 5 min read

Against all odds, Donald Trump is back on top. The Donald is the new favorite on the US presidential elections board at +100, with Joe Biden right behind him at +225. 

Despite facing multiple criminal trials, Trump has destroyed his rivals within the Republican party in the first two primaries and now is expected to beat out Biden, whose administration is struggling with domestic and international issues. However, there is a sleeper lurking in the background with former First Lady Michelle Obama now in third place at +600.

With the Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina caucuses now in the books and Super Tuesday approaching, the field is starting to narrow. Let's look at the election 2024 odds and see who has the highest probability of becoming the next president of the United States.

Odds to win the 2024 US presidential election

To give context to the next election odds, we've provided the implied probability along with each candidate's odds to become the next President of the United States in 2024.

Candidate Odds to win 2024 US election at bet365 Implied probability
Republican Logo Donald Trump +100 50%
Democratic Logo Joe Biden +225 30.8%
Democratic Logo Michelle Obama +600 14.3%
Democratic Logo Gavin Newsom +1,200 7.7%
Democratic Logo Kamala Harris +1,600 5.9%
Republican Logo Nikki Haley +1,800 5.3%
Democratic Logo Robert Kennedy Jr. +2,000 4.8%
Democratic Logo Gretchen Whitmer +6,600 1.49%
Democratic Logo Dean Phillips +8,000 1.2%
Democratic Logo Elizabeth Warren  +10,000 1%
Republican Logo Tim Scott +10,000 1%
Democratic Logo Hillary Clinton +15,000 0.66%
Democratic Logo Jay Robert Pritzker +20,000 0.5%
Democratic Logo Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +20,000 0.5%
Democratic Logo Pete Buttigieg +30,000 0.33%
Democratic Logo Susan Rice +30,000 0.33%
Cornel West +50,000 0.2%
Democratic Logo Jill Stein +50,000 0.2%
Democratic Logo Marianne Williamson +50,000 0.2%
Republican Logo Ryan Binkley +50,000 0.2%

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of February 28, 2024.

Latest Presidential Election odds updates 2024

Favorites to win the 2024 US presidential election

Shortly after the inauguration, Vice President Kamala Harris was atop the presidential odds board at +350, with Biden close behind at +400, and Trump in third place at +650.

Those odds have seen a ton of movement with Gavin Newsom now in fourth place at +1,200, while former First Lady Michelle Obama is in third place at +600 despite not formally campaigning or announcing any intention of running for office.

After dropping to third, Biden is back in second at +225, while Harris has plummeted all the way to the fifth spot at +1,600.

Joe Biden's odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

Biden's odds moved from +150 at the beginning of September to +200 in November and they are now at +225 in late February. Despite a growing problem at the border and his stance towards the Israel-Palestine conflict, the current president has seen a boost in the economy which has helped alleviate fears about a possible recession.

Biden's current approval rating of 38.9%, according to FiveThirtyEight, is significantly lower than what it was last year (42%). However, Biden's latest market prices on the Smarkets exchange give him a 36.8% chance of being re-elected in 2024, a significant bump from the 28.6% probability it was at just two months ago. 

The main reason for that bump in odds has less to do with any change in Biden's popularity and more to do with the certainty that he'll remain the Democrat party nominee for the next election cycle. 

A sitting president has never been defeated by a primary challenger, and it appears the Democrat party won't be changing horses midstream. Biden is now -450 to be his party's candidate in 2024 — an implied probability of 81.8%. It's also worth noting the two closest Democrats to him on the betting board have insisted that they don't intend to run.

Although Biden is behind Trump on the presidential odds board, the 2024 election still looks close with the Democrats installed as slim +110 underdogs and the Republicans coming back at -125.  

Donald Trump's odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

Trump has surged to the top of the presidential odds board at +100 (up from +250 in mid-June) and is the runaway favorite on the Republican party nominee odds board. This is despite the fact that Trump is defending himself in four separate trials and is expected to be found guilty of at least one charge in each case. 

Trump has a stranglehold on the Republican party which has become clear since he didn't even bother attending the primary debates and still dominated the other candidates in the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries. The other candidates have since dropped out of the race with many now endorsing Trump and the sole opponent left - Nikki Haley - is seen as an extreme long-shot. 

Trump's brand of conservative populism is in step with his party's voters, as is his focus on issues like immigration, crime and energy. However, it remains to be seen if voters across the country share those views after a crushing Republican defeat in 2020. 

That said, the most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll gave Trump a lead of five percentage points over Biden while Smarkets gives Trump a 46.7% chance of winning back the White House — nearly 10 full points higher than Biden.

While polls are hardly fool-proof, this isn't a good sign for the Democrat party. Democrats won the popular vote in the 2016 election cycle but still lost to Trump because of key battleground states. If Trump is able to win the popular vote this time, a victory in the general election would be all but assured. 

Michelle Obama's odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

Former First Lady Michelle Obama's presidential odds are the third-shortest at +600. That's a bit shocking considering that she hasn't publicly shown any interest in the position and has in the past rejected the notion of even going into politics. However, there's growing concern within the Democrat party that Biden might not have what it takes to win the 2024 and that they'll need a different candidate to energize the voter base.  

Obama would be exactly that kind of candidate and there are rumors that her husband is already speaking to Democrat donors about a possible run by his wife. Those rumors have been fueled by an opinion piece in the New York Post from Cindy Adams who claims that the plan is for Biden to step aside citing health concerns and hand over reigns to Michelle at the Democrat convention in August.

It's a fun conspiracy theory to believe in, especially for those that believe that Obama is far more electable than Biden, but it seems like a storyline from House of Cards as opposed to real life. It's also worth mentioning that Adams is a 93-year-old gossip columnist and this might be nothing more than click bait.

That said, as long as the public believes in this narrative enough to bet on it, we could see sportsbooks adjust their odds on Michelle Obama to make up for liability. 

Nikki Haley's odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

Nikki Haley is the last remaining Republican battling Trump for party leadership but is seen as a long shot at +1,800. The governor of South Carolina from 2011 to 2017, and a former ambassador to the United Nations, Haley already has a national profile and plenty of political experience. 

However, she's also viewed as an establishment conservative and members of the MAGA movement are opposed to her more moderate stances. She lost to Trump by a whopping 32 points in the first primary in Iowa before losing to Trump by 11 points in New Hampshire and more than 20 points in South Carolina, despite focusing much of her campaign there.

Haley insists she will remain in the race until at least Super Tuesday despite facing growing pressure within her own party to drop out. "I said earlier this week that no matter what happens in South Carolina, I would continue to run ... I’m a woman of my word," she told her supporters on Saturday night.

Gavin Newsom's odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

Newsom has been one of the biggest movers on the board, surging from +6,000 at the start of 2023 all the way to +600 last fall. 

However, the Governor of California said he wouldn't challenge Biden last November and there's been no indication that he has changed his mind which has seen his odds move to +1,100. Although Newsom has been setting up multiple committees to help with possible fund-raising efforts, it's more likely that the 55-year-old building up his war chest in anticipation of a 2028 run. 

While Newsom was seen as a very real possibility last year, a surprisingly strong performance by the Democrats in the midterms quieted that speculation. With Smarkets giving him just a 2.94% chance of winning and Newsom continuing to deny he will run this cycle, betting anywhere in this range is not advisable.

Robert Kennedy Jr.'s odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

The 69-year-old scion of the prestigious Kennedy family, was the flavor of the month last spring when he announced he would run for the Democratic Party nomination. He surged all the way up to +900 on the presidential odds board following interviews with Joe Rogan and Piers Morgan but it soon became apparent that many of his supporters were conservative-leaning and he had no chance of actually winning the party leadership. 

After plummeting in polls, RFK Jr. announced in October that he would run as an independent and he currently sits at +2,000. Considering that no third-party candidate has even come close to being competitive in an election (Ross Perot gaining 19% of the popular vote in 1992 was the best showing from an independent in the last century), fade the polarizing Kennedy at any price. 

Kamala Harris' odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

Harris has seen her odds sink to +1,600 after being the favorite early on in Biden's presidency. The Smarkets exchange gives her just a 1.11% chance of winning the presidency, lower than Obama, Haley, Newsom, and even Kennedy. 

Harris is having a rocky tenure as VP and has struggled to break ground with her two biggest projects: border migration and national voting reform. Her approval rating sits at just 37.5%, according to FiveThirtyEight, which is at least a massive improvement from her comically low approval rate of 29% in November of 2021.

2024 president predictions

At +225, current president Joe Biden remains the best bet despite a tumultuous first term in office. Short of a Mitch McConnell-esque health breakdown, Biden is almost definitely going to be the Democrat candidate next year and the Dems will be close to a pick'em or a small underdog at around +100 to win the White House by then. Trump might be polling far better than other GOP candidates but his odds are way too short when you consider all the legal complications that could disrupt him when he's on the campaign trail.

Likewise, steer clear of Michelle Obama and Newsom, who continue to rise up the board but haven't shown any genuine interest in running against Biden.

Republican presidential nominee odds

It may seem hard to believe given his mounting legal challenges, but Donald Trump remains firmly in the driver's seat to earn his party's nomination yet again.

Nomination Winner bet365 Implied probability
Donald Trump -2,000 95.2%
Nikki Haley  +800 11.1%
Ryan Binkley +30,000 0.3%

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of February 28, 2024. 

Democratic presidential nominee odds  

Nomination Winner bet365 Implied probability
Joe Biden -250 71.4%
Michelle Obama +400 20%
Gavin Newsom +700 12.5%
Kamala Harris +1,000 9.1%
Gina Raimondo +3,300 2.9%
Dean Phillips +4,000 2.4%
Elizabeth Warren  +5,000 2%
Gretchen Whitmer +5,000 2%
Hillary Clinton +8,000 1.2%
Robert Kennedy Jr. +12,500 0.8%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +15,000 0.7%
Susan Rice  +20,000 0.5%
Pete Buttigieg +30,000 0.3%
Marianne Williamson +40,000 0.2%

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of February 28, 2024.

Gender of next presidential election winner

Gender bet365 Implied probability
Male -800 88.9%
Female +450 18.2%

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of February 28, 2024. 

As the United States gears up for its next presidential election, the gender odds are heavily skewed towards male candidates, given the dominance of figures like Biden and Trump in recent political action. Historically, the presidency has been a predominantly male domain, with only one woman having secured a major party’s nomination in 2016 when the Democratic party tabbed Hillary Clinton. However, the landscape may be shifting, as notable female contenders emerge with strong campaigns. Additionally, the potential looming presence of Michelle Obama in the race could shake things up from traditional gender dynamics and offer a viable path to the presidency for women. 

While the odds may still favor male candidates, the upcoming election holds promise for female contenders to have a chance. Nikki Haley’s campaign, with its strategic positioning and widespread support, stands as a testament to the increasing acceptance of women in leadership roles within the political world. Michelle Obama could also shake things up, if she chooses to formally run for office. Her popularity and progressive vision could provide a different perspective and steer the US away from traditional political norms. As the United States confronts pressing challenges and seeks fresh leadership, there is potential for a transformative moment in American political history.  

Past US Election results

Year Winner Electoral votes Popular %
1789 George Washington 69 NA
1792 George Washington 132 NA
1796 John Adams 71 NA
1800 Thomas Jefferson 73 NA
1804 George Washington 162 NA
1808 James Madison 122 NA
1812 James Madison 128 NA
1816 James Monroe 183 NA
1820 James Monroe 231 NA
1824 John Quincy Adams 84 30.9
1828 Andrew Jackson 178 56.0
1832 Andrew Jackson 219 54.2
1836 Martin Van Buren 170 50.8
1840 William Henry Harrison 234 52.9
1844 James K. Polk 170 49.5
1848 Zachary Taylor 163 47.3
1852 Franklin Pierce 254 50.8
1856 James Buchanan 174 45.3
1860 Abraham Lincoln 180 39.3
1864 Abraham Lincoln 212 55.0
1868 Ulysses S. Grant 214 56.7
1872 Ulysses S. Grant 286 55.6
1876 Rutherford B. Hayes 184 48.0
1880 James A. Garfield 214 48.3
1884 Grover Cleveland 219 48.5
1888 Benjamin Harrison 233 47.8
1892 Grover Cleveland 277 46.1
1896 William McKinley 271 51.0
1900 William McKinley 292 51.7
1904 Theodore Roosevelt 336 56.4
1908 William Howard Taft 321 51.6
1912 Woodrow Wilson 435 41.8
1916 Woodrow Wilson 277 49.2
1920 Warren G. Harden 404 60.3
1924 Calvin Coolidge 382 54.1
1928 Herbert Hoover 444 58.0
1932 Franklin D. Roosevelt 472 57.3
1936 Franklin D. Roosevelt 523 60.2
1940 Franklin D. Roosevelt 449 54.7
1944 Franklin D. Roosevelt 432 53.3
1948 Harry S. Truman 303 49.4
1952 Dwight D. Eisenhower 442 54.9
1956 Dwight D. Eisenhower 457 57.4
1960 John F. Kennedy 303 49.7
1964 Lyndon B. Johnson 486 51.1
1968 Richard M. Nixon 301 43.4
1972 Richard M. Nixon 520 60.7
1976 Jimmy Carter 297 50.0
1980 Ronald W. Reagan 489 50.4
1984 Ronald W. Reagan 525 58.8
1988 George H.W. Bush 426 53.4
1992 Bill Clinton 370 43.0
1996 Bill Clinton 379 49.2
2000 George W. Bush 271 47.9
2004 George W. Bush 286 50.7
2008 Barack Obama 365 52.9
2012 Barack Obama 332 50.9
2016 Donald Trump 304 46.0
2020 Joe Biden 306 51.3

Only three US Presidents have received 60% or more of the popular vote since the metric was recorded. They include Warren G. Harding in 1920 (60.3), Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 (60.2), and Richard Nixon in 1972 (60.7).

2020 US Electoral map

This map visualizes the distribution of electoral votes for each state in the 2020 US Election. Republican wins are denoted by red states, while Democratic wins are represented by blue states. Explore the map to discover both popular vote and electoral vote figures by hovering over each state.

2020 voter turnout map

This interactive map provides insight into the voter turnout rates during the 2020 US Election. Hover over individual states to reveal precise percentage figures, with darker colors indicating higher voter turnout rates. Minnesota led all state with an impressive 80% turnout, while only 55% of eligible voters in Oklahoma showed up to the polls to cast a ballot.

2024 US presidential election key upcoming dates

Date Event
March 5, 2024 Super Tuesday
July 15-18, 2024 Republican National Convention
August 19-22, 2024 Democratic National Convention
November 5, 2024 Election Day

US presidential election trends

  • Only 38% of presidents have won consecutive elections since 1900.
  • The average age of the president at inauguration is 55.
  • A candidate has won the popular vote but lost the election five times in U.S. presidential election history.
  • James Buchanan is the only bachelor to be elected president.

Betting on the election in the United States

No U.S. states allow for election betting, so legal betting sites in the United States don’t offer election odds to Americans. However, bettors in other countries can bet on the U.S. election.

Betting on the US election from Canada

Canadians have plenty of options when it comes to placing wagers on the U.S. election. Legal betting sites in Ontario are permitted to offer election odds, while bettors in other provinces can also place bets via Canadian betting sites

US election betting odds FAQs

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