US Presidential Election Betting Odds: Will Vance Replace Trump in the Oval Office?

Presidential betting odds indicate that U.S. Vice President and presumptive Republican presidential candidate J.D. Vance is the most likely to replace Donald Trump in the Oval Office in 2028.

However, Vance still has only a 33.3% implied chance according to the latest odds from bet365. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is a strong challenger at +350 (22.2% implied chance), ahead of the next-closest candidate at +1,400.

President Trump has also flirted with the idea of seeking a third term despite the U.S. Constitution limiting presidents to two terms. Franklin D. Roosevelt is the only president to have served three terms.

2028 US Election odds

Candidate	Odds to win 2028 US election at
J.D. Vance	+200
Gavin Newsom	+350
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	+1400
Ivanka Trump	+1800
Pete Buttigieg	+2500
Josh Shapiro	+2500
Marco Rubio	+2800
Gretchen Whitmer	+2800
Kamala Harris	+2800
Andrew Beshear	+3300
Ron DeSantis	+3300
Wes Moore	+3300
Dwayne Johnson	+3300
Donald Trump Jr.	+4000
Nikki Haley	+4000
J.B. Pritzker	+4000

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of Nov. 11, 2025. Implied probability in betting is the likelihood of an event occurring as inferred from the odds offered by a sportsbook or the market.

Vance, long the favorite to fill the seat vacated by his current boss, has not moved in odds in more than a month. Newsom, meanwhile, picked up more steam, shortening from +600 in the first week of October to his current +350. That represents a 7.9% increase in implied probability.

Despite showing interest in seeking a third term, President Trump was not given odds of becoming the next U.S. president. The Trump with the shortest odds is Ivanka (+1,800), Trump’s second daughter, who served as his advisor during his first four years in office. 

Newsom said in August that he received more than 20 hats that read “Trump 2028.” Even if the current president’s pursuit of another term is rejected, they could be used to fuel the campaign of his offspring.

The only person not named Vance or Newsom with odds shorter than the younger Trump is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (+1,400), the New York 14th District Representative to the U.S. House of Representatives. 

2024 Presidential runner-up Kamala Harris has +2,800 odds to win the 2028 election, though she’s also below fellow Democrats Pete Buttigieg and Josh Shapiro (both +2,500).

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson has worn enough hats during his professional career, but oddsmakers believe he has a 2.9% chance (+3,300 odds) to add that of the president to his collection.

Other notable figures on the odds board include Donald Trump Jr. (+4,000) and Michelle Obama (+6,600).

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2028 US Election Winning Party Odds

Winning Party	Odds to win 2028 US election at	Implied probability
Republican	-110	52%
Democrats	-110	52%
Independent	+2200	4%

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of Nov. 11, 2025.

Aside from “The Rock,” several celebrities have been rumored to be in the mix for the upcoming presidential election. That includes sports commentator Stephen A. Smith, television host Oprah Winfrey, actor Matthew McConaughey, tortured poet Taylor Swift, and UFC President Dana White; however, all are extreme longshots to become America’s 48th commander in chief.

US presidential election winners

Only three U.S. Presidents have received 60% or more of the popular vote since the metric was recorded. They include Warren G. Harding in 1920 (60.3), Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 (60.2), and Richard Nixon in 1972 (60.7).

US presidential election trends

• Only 38% of presidents have won consecutive elections since 1900.
• The average age of the president at inauguration is 55.
• A candidate has won the popular vote but lost the election five times in U.S. presidential election history.
• James Buchanan is the only bachelor to be elected president.

Betting on the election in the United States

U.S. states do not allow for election betting in an effort to protect election integrity and the democratic process. Legal betting sites in the United States don’t offer election odds to Americans. 

Betting on the US election from Canada

Canadians have plenty of options when it comes to placing wagers on the U.S. election. The top political betting sites on our list are permitted to offer election odds within the regulated Ontario sports betting marketplace, along with all other Canadian provinces. Additionally, bettors in other countries can bet on the U.S. election.

In Ontario, there are multiple legal options to place bets including:

BetMGM: The sportsbook best known for its flagship US brand has expanded in Europe and is among the market leaders in Canadian gambling

bet365: Maybe the biggest name in global sports betting, bet365 allows bets on not only the winning president but also the winner in most states

DraftKings: One of America's leading sportsbooks also allows punters to try their luck on presidential betting in Ontario

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