US Presidential Election Betting Odds: Will Vance Replace Trump in the Oval Office?

U.S. Vice President and presumptive Republican presidential candidate J.D. Vance leads odds to win the next presidential election.

Vance has a 30.8% implied probability to replace his boss, President Donald Trump, in the Oval Office, according to bet365’s odds. California Gov. Gavin Newsom leads all possible Democratic nominees with a 21.1% implied chance.

President Trump and several of his affiliates have also entertained the idea of trying to get him back into the White House for years 9-12 of his service. However, bet365 does not have him on its odds board.

2028 US Election odds

Candidate	Odds to win 2028 US election at
J.D. Vance	+225
Gavin Newsom	+375
Marco Rubio	+1000
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	+1200
Josh Shapiro	+2500
Donald Trump Jr.	+2500
Pete Buttigieg	+3300
Gretchen Whitmer	+3300
Kamala Harris	+3300
Ron DeSantis	+3300
J.B. Pritzker	+3500
Andrew Beshear	+4000
Wes Moore	+4000

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of Feb. 17, 2026. Implied probability in betting is the likelihood of an event occurring as inferred from the odds offered by a sportsbook or the market.

Vance has been the favorite to replace Trump practically since the president took office for the second time. His odds fell ever so slightly since late last year, though he only went from having a 33.3% implied probability last November to 30.8% at the time of writing.

Trump’s numerous flirtations with a third term have not swayed bet365’s oddsmakers. The Trump with the best chance of being back in office is thought to be Donald Trump Jr., who is listed at +2,500 (3.9%), level with Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.

Aside from Vance and Newsom, two individuals have better odds to win the 2028 Presidential Election than Trump Jr. (and Shapiro): Marco Rubio and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Rubio, the U.S. Secretary of State, made a deep run in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election but eventually dropped out after Trump won Rubio’s home state of Florida. 

Ocasio-Cortez, a 36-year-old U.S. Representative from New York, did not meet the minimum age requirement for previous election races. At +1,200, she has a 7.7% implied chance.

One of the biggest losers of the last few months was Ivanka Trump. Previously +1,800 and fourth in odds, she’s down to +5,000, or a 2% implied chance.

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Celebrities and notable figures

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson is level with Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and Kentucky Gov. Andrew Beshear at +4,000 odds to become the next U.S. President. That gives him a 2.4% implied chance.

Former First Lady Michelle Obama is listed at +5,000; real estate mogul and businessman Grant Cardone is +6,600; Vivek Ramswamy, the youngest candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election, is +8,000; and sports commentator Stephen A. Smith is +10,000.

“I'm giving strong consideration to being on that debate stage for 2027 and running for the Democratic nomination.”

- Stephen A. Smith

(h/t @costareports ) pic.twitter.com/eYhXOjSs91

— NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral) February 13, 2026

2028 US Election Winning Party Odds

Winning Party	Odds to win 2028 US election at	Implied probability
Republican	+110	47%
Democrats	-130	56%
Independent	+2800	3%

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of Feb. 17, 2026.

US presidential election winners

Only three U.S. Presidents have received 60% or more of the popular vote since the metric was recorded. They include Warren G. Harding in 1920 (60.3), Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 (60.2), and Richard Nixon in 1972 (60.7).

US presidential election trends

• Only 38% of presidents have won consecutive elections since 1900.
• The average age of the president at inauguration is 55.
• A candidate has won the popular vote but lost the election five times in U.S. presidential election history.
• James Buchanan is the only bachelor to be elected president.

Betting on the election in the United States

U.S. states do not allow for election betting in an effort to protect election integrity and the democratic process. Legal betting sites in the United States don’t offer election odds to Americans. 

Betting on the US election from Canada

Canadians have plenty of options when it comes to placing wagers on the U.S. election. The top political betting sites on our list are permitted to offer election odds within the regulated Ontario sports betting marketplace, along with all other Canadian provinces. Additionally, bettors in other countries can bet on the U.S. election.

In Ontario, there are multiple legal options to place bets including:

BetMGM: The sportsbook best known for its flagship US brand has expanded in Europe and is among the market leaders in Canadian gambling

bet365: Maybe the biggest name in global sports betting, bet365 allows bets on not only the winning president but also the winner in most states

DraftKings: One of America's leading sportsbooks also allows punters to try their luck on presidential betting in Ontario

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