Odds to win the 2020 US Presidential Election: Biden wins

Nov 7, 2020 |
Odds to win the 2020 US Presidential Election: Biden wins
Democratic challenger Joe Biden has won the 2020 U.S. Presidential election, but some books are keeping odds open as litigation from Trump and the Republicans may ensue.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Democratic challenger Joe Biden has won the 2020 U.S. Presidential election, but some books are keeping odds open as litigation from Trump and the Republicans may ensue.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Updated 1 P.M. ET

U.S. election live betting carries on into a fifth day, with Democratic challenger Joe Biden having been declared victorious Saturday over the incumbent President Donald Trump.  

And while this concludes the Mr. Toad's Wild Ride of 2020 U.S. election odds, there are a number of books still keeping Election 2020 odds open, with a legal battle likely to be brought forth by Trump and the Republicans.

Here are the latest political betting odds updates for the 2020 US Presidential Election, the wildest election in betting history:

2020 Election odds line movement

UPDATE 1 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Several networks called the race today, with Joe Biden winning to become the 46th president of the United States. But as bookmakers alluded to a few times already, the legal wrangling needs to sort itself out before they declare Biden tickets as winners. "We haven’t shut up shop," Paddy Power head of PR Lee Price said, while noting Biden is still a massive -5,000 chalk. "We expect this situation to rumble on."

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Paddy Power in Ireland and the UK still has presidential election odds on the board, but they tell a story that is very much nearing conclusion. "Our market is still live, albeit at odds of -5,000. You'd  have to bet $50 to win $1 for Biden, an implied probability of 98 percent," Paddy Power head of PR Lee Price said. "Trump is +1,600, but at this stage, less of a dark horse and more of a sitting duck. Well, he has the pout for it."

UPDATE 6 A.M. ET FRIDAY: As counts came in overnight, Biden took the lead in Georgia and has now moved as high as -2,000 (Trump +1,200) at some UK-based books, while other shops have simply taken the odds to win the U.S. Presidential Election off the board as they await an official winner.

UPDATE 11:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: The odds continue to grow stronger for the challenger and weaker for the incumbent at Ladbrokes. It's hard to imagine anyone is betting at this point, but for those casually interested, Biden is now a massive -1,667 favorite and Trump a +700 underdog.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Said Paddy Power head of PR Lee Price: "Game over for us. Biden is -1,400. That’s not just favorite, that’s ‘job done, where will Trump emigrate to?’ territory." That said, it's not job done yet as far as the payout timetable goes. Paddy Power won't comment on that until there's clarity from the ongoing legal wrangling in battleground states.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Ladbrokes is back out to Biden -800/Trump +425. "This just seems to be reaction to continued positive news from the various counts," Ladbrokes political trader Matthew Shaddick said. "It's hard to say how much of the uncertainty left is voting figures and how much is down to any chance the GOP might have of overturning the result via legal means. I certainly don't think this is quite over as a betting contest, even if the media call Biden the winner later today."

UPDATE 11:30 A.M. ET THURSDAY: With results slowly taking shape heading into Thursday afternoon, Biden has moved up to -700 at Ladbrokes (Trump +400), while a prominant offshore sportsbook is dealing Biden -700/Trump +425. Given those betting odds, a Biden win has an implied probability of 87.5 percent, while Trump's probability of re-election sits at about 19 percent.

UPDATE 6:40 A.M. ET THURSDAY: Overnight line movement has slimmed the odds a touch at Ladbrokes, with Biden still a considerable favorite at -600 and Trump coming back at +350 to win the 2020 election. Votes are still being counted in battleground states including Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona, and media sources say the count is too close to call those states for either candidate.

UPDATE 11:45 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: As this never-ending saga continues, Ladbrokes has the latest odds at Biden -833/Trump +450. Biden is currently projected to have 264 electoral votes, just six short of the 270 required for victory, while Trump remains at 214.

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: It's looking like the 2020 election is nearing the finish line, at least in oddsmakers' eyes. Ladbrokes has Biden -714 and Trump +400, and one prominent offshore book has it at Biden -800/Trump +550. That said, a spokesperson for the offshore book said it's still very much wait-and-see on declaring winning bets. "There is no timeline. If this turns into a potential shitshow, we wait. Too much money on the line."

UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: The odds continued to fluctuate at multiple books in the past couple of hours, though Biden was generally in the -400 range. Then some media outlets called Michigan for Biden in the last half hour, and there was a swift move, incuding one offshore oddsmaker going to Biden -550/Trump +425. "We are trying to post the most accurate number, based on market value, sharp intel, trying to read into the data/polls/etc.," said a spokesperson for the offshore book. "People are still betting on Trump, espeically now that he is a 'dog again."

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Currently leading in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan, CNN explained that Joe Biden would win the 2020 Election if he holds the lead in all four battleground states—regardless of the outcome in Georgia or Pennsylvania. Despite this news, Biden now sits at -350 at LadBrokes, while Trump is now a +225 underdog. 

UPDATE 11:45 A.M. ET WEDNESDAY: A wild ride for Paddy Power oddsmakers continues, with Biden now a -500 favorite and Trump a +350 underdog. "A very long roller-coaster ride. It’s changed completely overnight. I’m not deluded enough to call it ‘magical,' but it fits in with this topsy-turvy election," Paddy Power PR chief Lee Price said, before pointing out that the massive shift of the past several hours had multiple components, including bets coming in and updated vote tabulations. "A combination for sure. But also our own version of projecting. As the count continued, a clearer picture emerged of the true lay of the land." Still, key battleground states will likely be counting votes for the next 24-48 hours, and the odds will move on those results.

UPDATE 10:45 A.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Already the heaviest-bet election in American history, BetFair has reported that a whopping EUR 496,287,719 has been matched on the 2020 election so far.

UPDATE 10 A.M. ET WEDNESDAY: With news that Biden is leading in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, his odds continue to grow at Ladbrokes. Biden is now sitting as a -500 favorite. Trump has moved to +300, although those key battleground states, as well as Georgia and Pennsylvania, are still not close to being fully reported.

Follow @Covers_Vegas for the latest election betting updates

UPDATE 8 A.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Biden has rebounded in a big way, as Ladbrokes has swung the Democrat back to a -350 favorite, his biggest election betting lead yet. Trump has gone back to a +250 underdog, with battleground states such as Michigan, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania still waiting on a large number of votes to be counted.

UPDATE 3:15 A.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Paddy Power head of PR Lee Price gets the last word before morning, noting the current odds are Trump -225/Biden +180. "At this stage, the only thing Paddy Power needs is our teddy bear and a good night’s sleep. With the election now descending into confusion and chaos, this could rumble on for some days."

UPDATE 2 A.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Perhaps interestingly in the wee hours, odds at Ladbrokes stretched out some in the incumbent's favor over the last 90 minutes, with Trump at -250 and Biden +175. Likewise, at one notable offshore sportsbook, the price moved though not as much, at Trump -190/Biden +165. 

UPDATE 12:30 A.M. ET WEDNESDAY: As a new day arrives, Ladbrokes has Trump -150 and Biden +110, and it's a little tighter at one of the offshore books, at Trump -135/+115. But the race will go into Wednesday and perhaps beyond.

Odds to win the 2020 US Presidential Election

Election Winner Odds 11/7 Odds 11/6 Odds 11/5 Odds 11/4
Joe Biden (D) -5,000 -1,600 -1,667 -833
Donald Trump (R) +1,600 +700 +700 +450

Odds courtesy of  Paddy Power

UPDATE 11:30 P.M. ET TUESDAY: As Arizona was called in favor of Biden, flipping that state from the 2016 election, odds made a significant shift toward the challenger. At Ladbrokes, Trump fell from -300 to -175, while Biden improved from +225 to +125. "There are so many results coming in that it's hard to attribute the moves to any particular bit of info," Ladbrokes political trader Matthew Shaddick said. "The wisdom of the crowds moves in mysterious ways." Meanwhile, the offshore operator that had it it Trump -220/Biden +190 less than an hour ago is now Trump -145/Biden +125. It's shaping up to be a long fight all night, and probably well into Wednesday, too.

UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET TUESDAY: In the last 30 minutes, Trump moved to a stunning -400 favorite at Ladbrokes, while Biden was a +250 underdog. However, in what's been a yo-yo evening, the odds then dialed back a bit and are now Trump -300/Biden +225. A prominent offshore book receded even more, at Trump -220/Biden +190.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET TUESDAY: The odds are shifting significantly at multiple books, most notably at Ladbrokes, where Trump is now a -275 favorite, with Biden +188. Less than five hours ago, Ladbrokes had Biden -225/Trump +163.

UPDATE 9:20 P.M. ET TUESDAY: It's a wild ride at Paddy Power, where just more than an hour ago. it was Biden -137/Trump +110. The odds then swung back to Biden -225/Trump +163, about where the day began, and right now, Trump is a -125 favorite and Biden is even money. "Trump now the fave again for the first time since pre-COVID," Paddy Power head of PR Lee Price said.

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET TUESDAY: In just the last 30 minutes, with some states' results starting to take shape, Ireland/UK bookmaker Paddy Power made a significant move from Biden -200/Trump +175 to Biden -137/Trump +110. Similarly, LadBrokes moved from Biden -225/Trump +163 to Biden -137/Trump even money, and the offshore operator mentioned below is at -130/+110, after sitting -215/+185 less than an hour ago.

UPDATE 7:15 P.M. ET TUESDAY: Earlier today, a prominent offshore sportsbook tightened the odds in this race to Biden -170/Trump +150, the closest the numbers have been in a few weeks. That prompted professional play on Biden. "Way too low. We got hit by sharps up to -215," said a spokesperson for the offshore book. The line ticked back to -210/+180, but it's now back at -215/+185.

UPDATE 5:30 P.M. ET TUESDAY: Ladbrokes political trader Matthew Shaddick said that very early today in the United Kingdom, there was a strong move toward Trump, with his odds shortening to +138 "for no discernible reason. But as the day went on, we saw a steady drift toward Biden, who now sits at -225 vs. Trump +163, very close to where we were 24 hours ago. Betting action has been frenetic, and we're on track to double turnover vs. 2016."

UPDATE 1 P.M. ET TUESDAY: At Paddy Power today, the odds between Biden and Trump first shortened, then stretched back out. Trump is currently +188, which is where the incumbent began the day. Biden is currently -225, down from -250 Monday. "You’d think Trump was the only candidate running (based on) our book the last day or so," Paddy Power PR head Lee Price said, alluding to continued heavy underdog action. "But there's still plenty of time for the shrewd money to come. Biden has been the consistent favorite for some months now. Though, then again, we’ve said something similar before, haven’t we?"

UPDATE 9  P.M. ET MONDAY: Amy Jones, spokesperson for Ireland/UK sportsbook Paddy Power, said Biden is still -250 and Trump +188. However, Trump money is piling up in the final days, despite the incumbent at his longest odds so far, according to the actual Paddy Power, an ambassador for the bookmaker. "The big day is looming, and despite Joe Biden leading the polls and being shorter in the odds, the punters seem very keen on a Trump re-election," Power said. "In the past week, over 90 percent of volume has been on him, and that continues into this Monday. Hold on tight, America!” Jones added that the surge in Trump money is up 20 percent from the previous week.

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. MONDAY: Odds at Ladbrokes have been stable the past week, with Biden still the -200 favorite and Trump the +163 underdog. But that's not to say the action has been equal. "Stakes over the last seven days have been 2/1 in favor of Trump, so it doesn't look like the betting markets have any intention of falling in line with the polling-based models," Ladbrokes political trader Matthew Shaddick said. "Needless to say, we'll be cheering on Joe Biden."

UPDATE 4:30 P.M. SUNDAY: Election betting is not legal in regulated U.S. sportbook jurisdictions, but offshore books are certainly in the election market, and it is a popular market seeing a lot of action and some interesting movement of late. A month ago, one well-known offshore operator had this race at Biden -130/Trump +110. A week ago, Biden was out to -200, with Trump +175, but as of Sunday afternoon, the odds have tightened a bit to Biden -180/Trump +160. Two weeks ago, this book was a winner to either side. Not so anymore. "We actually need Biden for a decent amount now. We're no longer black-black," the offshore sportsbook's spokesperson said.

UPDATE 5:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: At Paddy Power in Ireland and the UK, Biden has stretched out lately, from -125 a month ago to -225 at the beginning of this week to the current price of -250. Correspondingly, Trump moved from +100 a month ago to +188 now. "Certainly in the last week since the debate, the betting on Biden has taken an upward turn," Paddy Power spokesperson Amy Jones said. "We also took the biggest bet we’ve seen yet on Biden (90,000 pounds, or about $116,000) in the last few days. Trump has been receiving large bets for some time now, though." In fact, the book needs the favorite, without question. "In terms of where the bulk of the money has been going, that’s been on Trump, so we’d be paying out far more on him than on Biden," Jones said. In alternate markets, Jones said election props on swing-state results are popular at Paddy Power, as well. 

UPDATE 4 P.M. ET THURSDAY: A month ago, Biden was a -175 favorite and Trump a +138 underdog at Ladbrokes, shortly after the first debate. On Monday, Biden was out to -225, with Trump a +175 pup. But the odds have tightened since then to Biden -200/Trump +163, with money continuing to flow toward the 'dog. "It's still a very large bias toward Trump bettors," Ladbrokes political trader Matthew Shaddick said. "Over 70 percent of stakes in the last week have been for Trump, and in fact, we have taken more money on Trump than Biden in every single week since mid-August, with the exception of the week commencing Sept. 28, which featured the first debate and Trump's hospitalization." That week notwithstanding, the need at Ladbrokes is readily apparent. "Biden, Biden, Biden," Shaddick said. 

According to Smarkets, a political betting odds site, Biden has a 65.8 percent chance of victory and Biden also leads Trump in the National Polls by an average of 8.4 points. 

That said, Trump also trailed Hillary Clinton in the polls four years ago and ended up winning as a massive +475 underdog.

Crucial to Trump's 2016 victory were wins in key battleground states and Biden currently has the lead in six of those regions; Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida.

Biden's lead is narrow enough in several of those swing states that a Trump win is still a solid possibility if the POTUS can win them over. 

Even with election day on November 3, experts have warned that the final results might not be known for some time and that neither side will concede until defeat is absolutely certain. Trump has even said that he may challenge the legality of some ballots, saying that "as soon as that election is over, we're going in with our lawyers."

With that in mind, winning bettors may not see their profits immediately with sports books proceeding more cautiously with pay outs than they did in 2016. 

"We want to pay out as quickly as possible," says Ladbrokes political trader Matthew Shaddick, "but we do have rules which indicate we will wait for any relevant legal or constitutional proceedings, if there is any doubt about the result."

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Odds to win the popular vote in the 2020 US Election

Popular Vote Winner Odds 11/1 Odds 10/26 Odds 10/1
Democratic Candidate -800 -700 -500
Republican Candidate +450 +400 +333

Odds courtesy of William Hill

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What are Mike Pence's odds of winning the 2020 US Presidential Election?

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West might not have a chance in 2020, but with Trump winning last cycle, celebrities running for the Leader of the Free World could be the future of the US election.

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Jo Jorgensen is the leader of the Libertarian Party and an extreme long shot at +50,000 to become the next president of the United States. 

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Where can I bet on US Presidential Election Odds?

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