Donald Trump rolled to a 2024 election night victory and, as a result, his running mate is the early favorite to win the 2028 U.S. presidential election.
Odds are already out for the event, and J.D. Vance owns the shortest odds.
| Candidate | Odds to win 2028 US election at  |
|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | +250 |
| Gavin Newsom | +1000 |
| Josh Shapiro | +1000 |
| Pete Buttigieg | +1400 |
| Michelle Obama | +1600 |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +1600 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | +1600 |
| Donald Trump Jr. | +1600 |
| Ron DeSantis | +2000 |
| Tucker Carlson | +2000 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | +2000 |
| Kamala Harris | +2000 |
| Tim Scott | +2500 |
| Andrew Beshear | +2500 |
| Wes Moore | +2500 |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of Jan. 15, 2025. Implied probability in betting is the likelihood of an event occurring as inferred from the odds offered by a sportsbook or the market.
Other recognizable names that populate the odds board are Nikki Haley at +4,000, Hillary Clinton at +5,000, Oprah Winfrey at +5,000, and Dwayne Johnson at +6,600.
2028 US Election Winning Party Odds
After such a decisive victory, the Republican Party is already installed as the favorite in the early 2028 US election odds.
| Winning Party | Odds to win 2028 US election at |
Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
 Republican |
-150 | 60% |
 Democrats |
+120 | 45.4% |
| Independent | +10000 | 0.9% |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of Jan. 15, 2025.
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US presidential election winners
| Year | Winner | Electoral votes | Popular % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1789 | George Washington | 69 | NA |
| 1792 | George Washington | 132 | NA |
| 1796 | John Adams | 71 | NA |
| 1800 | Thomas Jefferson | 73 | NA |
| 1804 | George Washington | 162 | NA |
| 1808 | James Madison | 122 | NA |
| 1812 | James Madison | 128 | NA |
| 1816 | James Monroe | 183 | NA |
| 1820 | James Monroe | 231 | NA |
| 1824 | John Quincy Adams | 84 | 30.9 |
| 1828 | Andrew Jackson | 178 | 56.0 |
| 1832 | Andrew Jackson | 219 | 54.2 |
| 1836 | Martin Van Buren | 170 | 50.8 |
| 1840 | William Henry Harrison | 234 | 52.9 |
| 1844 | James K. Polk | 170 | 49.5 |
| 1848 | Zachary Taylor | 163 | 47.3 |
| 1852 | Franklin Pierce | 254 | 50.8 |
| 1856 | James Buchanan | 174 | 45.3 |
| 1860 | Abraham Lincoln | 180 | 39.3 |
| 1864 | Abraham Lincoln | 212 | 55.0 |
| 1868 | Ulysses S. Grant | 214 | 56.7 |
| 1872 | Ulysses S. Grant | 286 | 55.6 |
| 1876 | Rutherford B. Hayes | 184 | 48.0 |
| 1880 | James A. Garfield | 214 | 48.3 |
| 1884 | Grover Cleveland | 219 | 48.5 |
| 1888 | Benjamin Harrison | 233 | 47.8 |
| 1892 | Grover Cleveland | 277 | 46.1 |
| 1896 | William McKinley | 271 | 51.0 |
| 1900 | William McKinley | 292 | 51.7 |
| 1904 | Theodore Roosevelt | 336 | 56.4 |
| 1908 | William Howard Taft | 321 | 51.6 |
| 1912 | Woodrow Wilson | 435 | 41.8 |
| 1916 | Woodrow Wilson | 277 | 49.2 |
| 1920 | Warren G. Harden | 404 | 60.3 |
| 1924 | Calvin Coolidge | 382 | 54.1 |
| 1928 | Herbert Hoover | 444 | 58.0 |
| 1932 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 472 | 57.3 |
| 1936 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 523 | 60.2 |
| 1940 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 449 | 54.7 |
| 1944 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | 432 | 53.3 |
| 1948 | Harry S. Truman | 303 | 49.4 |
| 1952 | Dwight D. Eisenhower | 442 | 54.9 |
| 1956 | Dwight D. Eisenhower | 457 | 57.4 |
| 1960 | John F. Kennedy | 303 | 49.7 |
| 1964 | Lyndon B. Johnson | 486 | 51.1 |
| 1968 | Richard M. Nixon | 301 | 43.4 |
| 1972 | Richard M. Nixon | 520 | 60.7 |
| 1976 | Jimmy Carter | 297 | 50.0 |
| 1980 | Ronald W. Reagan | 489 | 50.4 |
| 1984 | Ronald W. Reagan | 525 | 58.8 |
| 1988 | George H.W. Bush | 426 | 53.4 |
| 1992 | Bill Clinton | 370 | 43.0 |
| 1996 | Bill Clinton | 379 | 49.2 |
| 2000 | George W. Bush | 271 | 47.9 |
| 2004 | George W. Bush | 286 | 50.7 |
| 2008 | Barack Obama | 365 | 52.9 |
| 2012 | Barack Obama | 332 | 50.9 |
| 2016 | Donald Trump | 304 | 46.0 |
| 2020 | Joe Biden | 306 | 51.3 |
Only three US Presidents have received 60% or more of the popular vote since the metric was recorded. They include Warren G. Harding in 1920 (60.3), Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 (60.2), and Richard Nixon in 1972 (60.7).
US presidential election trends
- Only 38% of presidents have won consecutive elections since 1900.
- The average age of the president at inauguration is 55.
- A candidate has won the popular vote but lost the election five times in US presidential election history.
- James Buchanan is the only bachelor to be elected president.
Betting on the election in the United States
US states do not allow for election betting in an effort to protect election integrity and the democratic process. Legal betting sites in the United States don’t offer election odds to Americans.
Betting on the US election from Canada
Canadians have plenty of options when it comes to placing wagers on the US election. The top political betting sites on our list are permitted to offer election odds within the regulated Ontario sports betting marketplace, along with all other Canadian provinces. Additionally, bettors in other countries can bet on the U.S. election.
In Ontario, there are multiple legal options to place bets including:
BetMGM: The sportsbook best known for its flagship US brand has expanded in Europe and is among the market leaders in Canadian gambling
bet365: Maybe the biggest name in global sports betting, bet365 allows bets on not only the winning president but also the winner in most states
DraftKings: One of America's leading sportsbooks also allows punters to try their luck on presidential betting in Ontario
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US election betting odds FAQs
Yes. Some betting sites provide odds on the U.S. presidential election, but betting on elections is not legal in the United States and state-regulated books do not offer these odds.
Donald Trump rolled to victory at closing odds of -6600.
Betting odds are one of the indicators of public sentiment regarding the outcome of elections. When people place bets on political events, they are expressing their opinions and predictions based on the information available to them at the time. However, while betting odds can provide insights into public sentiment, they are not infallible predictors. Political events are complex, and unexpected developments can occur, leading to shifts in public opinion. Additionally, betting odds are influenced by the amount of money wagered on each outcome.
Betting odds for a presidential election are a way of expressing the probability of a particular outcome happening. The odds represent the bookmakers' assessment of the likelihood of a candidate winning, and are presented in different formats, including fractional odds, decimal odds, and moneyline odds. lower odds indicate a higher likelihood of winning, while higher odds suggest a lower probability. It's important to note that odds can change based on betting activity, polling data, and various other factors. They reflect the bookmakers' assessment of the situation and the balance of bets placed by the public.
Yes, but only in Ontario. American bettors can not place election bets with DraftKings in the US.
Yes, bet365 allows election betting in Ontario. Bettors in the United States can not place election bets.
BetMGM accepts bets on the 2024 presidential election but only in Ontario. American bettors can not place bets.
