Despite a game of musical chairs at quarterback, an ultra-competitive division, and constant postseason shortcomings, the Pittsburgh Steelers have been one of the best NFL bets of the past five years.
Since 2020, Mike Tomlin’s troops cover the spread at a 59% clip in the regular season (but 0-4 ATS in playoffs), including an 11-6 record against the spread in 2024.
Great defense remains the combination to that safe, and the 2025 Steelers are projected to have a Top 10 stop unit once again, anchored in a rabid pass rush.
Offensively, Pittsburgh made splashy additions with veteran arm Aaron Rodgers and receiver DK Metcalf. However, those could end up being sideways moves rather than forward progress.
While the Steelers are favorites in just six games, bookies are hesitant to discount Tomlin too much, given his track record as an NFL odds underdog.
I size up the “Black and Yellow” with my 2025 NFL betting preview for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Pittsburgh Steelers best bets
Read on for Jason's full analysis and Pittsburgh Steelers breakdown!
Pittsburgh Steelers odds for 2025
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +4000 |
| Win conference | +1800 |
| Win division | +550 |
| Make playoffs | +135 |
| Over 8.5 wins | -110 |
| Under 8.5 wins | -110 |
Best futures bet: No Playoffs (-165)
You can lay the -165 on this prop before the season, but I’d suggest waiting until at least October to get down on this playoff prop.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have a good shot to start strong with the Jets, Seattle, New England, Minnesota, and Cleveland out of the gate. That’s weak QB competition, and defenses tend to have the inside track in the early working of the sked, especially with four of those foes going with a new starter under center in 2025.
The wheels will come off by mid-October. The remaining games feature plenty of powerful attacks and guys like Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jared Goff.
A skill-starved Steelers offense won’t be able to keep pace, which will lead to some low-scoring losses.
Pittsburgh Steelers at a glance: Depending on the defense
There’s a notable lack of talent at the skill positions. Aaron Rodgers’ retread has been far from glowing after two seasons with the Jets. He had more around him in terms of weapons in New York compared to the bare cupboard in this Arthur Smith offense.
So that continues to put pressure on the defense to keep the Steelers in games and generate game-changing plays. Pittsburgh was second overall in takeaways in 2024, but forced fumbles and interceptions are unreliable attributes season-to-season.
What will win bets: Pass rush
The trio of T.J. Watt, Cam Heyward, and Alex Highsmith was nightmare fuel for NFL quarterbacks in 2024 and will once more give us a great view of the bottom of the QBs' cleats this season.
Pittsburgh needs that rush to cause havoc and generate those game-changing plays, be it sacks, fumbles, or ill-timed throws into an improved secondary.
The QBs coming down the pike will shred any defense if given time, so keeping them uncomfortable and notching takeaways will be the key to any Pittsburgh cover.
What will lose bets: No skill players
Rodgers to DK Metcalf is option No. 1. And that’s when things get murky. Running back Jaylen Warren is more of a pass-catching threat than an RB1, and the receiving corps is very shallow following the trade of George Pickens.
Not only do divisional rivals Baltimore and Cincinnati have elite offenses, but the schedule is loaded with top-tier attacks. The Steelers will bring a butter knife to a gun fight most weeks, especially after Week 7.
Last season, Pittsburgh failed to crack 20 points in nine games and finished 4-5 ATS in those outings.
Pittsburgh Steelers schedule + spot bet: Soft start, fierce finish
Pittsburgh plays three of its first four games away from home, including a trip to Ireland to face Minnesota in Week 4. However, look-ahead lines have the Steelers listed as either favorites or short dogs in those games. After a bye in Week 5, a home date with Cleveland (-6.5) sets the table for a solid start to 2025.
Reality kicks in the door and waves the four-four come Week 7, and really doesn’t let up. Pittsburgh is laying points in only three of its final 12 games (vs. Indianapolis, vs. Miami, at Cleveland).
All in all, the Steelers face nine spreads within a field goal (-3 to +3), which has been Tomlin’s sweet spot. Since taking the job in 2007, Pittsburgh has covered in 60% of its games with a closing spread in that range.
Spot bet: Week 7 at Cincinnati (TNF) +4.5
The AFC North is always competitive, and the schedule does Pittsburgh a big favor in Week 7.
The Bengals host the Steelers on Thursday night for what will be their fourth game in 17 days. Cincinnati plays at Denver on Monday in Week 4, and this mid-week matchup comes on the heels of a trip to Green Bay in Week 6.
Tomlin has owned the Bengals on their own field in recent seasons (won three straight) and is a career 14-4 SU and 12-5-1 ATS at Cincinnati during the regular season.
No way DK
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Win MVP | +50000 |
| Win Offensive Player of the Year | +10000 |
| Over 950.5 Receiving Yards | -110 |
| Under 950.5 Receiving Yards | -110 |
| Over 6.5 Touchdowns | -105 |
| Under 6.5 Touchdowns | -115 |
DK Metcalf best bet: Under 6.5 Touchdowns -115
Metcalf got paid in the shade by Pittsburgh, but I’m not convinced that the new contract pans out to plenty of touchdowns.
Season-long projections hover around seven TD grabs, which is on par with his production the past three seasons in Seattle.
Arthur Smith’s offense is anchored in the run, and when Rodgers does drop back, secondaries will sandwich Metcalf, knowing there aren’t other threats to worry about. Smith’s playbook struggles in the red zone, finishing 29th and 30th in his previous two NFL seasons.
Pittsburgh Steelers trend: Underdogs
As someone who writes a weekly column betting only point spread underdogs, Tomlin and the Steelers hold a special place in my heart… and wallet.
Since becoming the team’s head coach in 2007, Tomlin has an uncanny 64% cover rate when getting points in the regular season.
That’s happened a little more over recent years, with the Steelers owning an 18-11-1 ATS record as pups since Ben Roethlisberger retired. That includes a 6-3 ATS finish as underdogs in 2024.
Look-ahead lines give Pittsburgh points in 11 games this season.
More NFL team previews
Want to see Jason's forecast for the rest of the NFL? Check out all of his NFL team previews below!
| Bills | Ravens | Texans | Broncos |
| Dolphins | Bengals | Colts | Chiefs |
| Patriots | Browns | Jaguars | Raiders |
| Jets | Steelers | Titans | Chargers |
| Cowboys | Bears | Falcons | Cardinals |
| Giants | Lions | Panthers | Rams |
| Eagles | Packers | Saints | 49ers |
| Commanders | Vikings | Buccaneers | Seahawks |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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