I was fortunate enough to travel to New Orleans for Super Bowl LIX this winter.
While I was bouncing around town, I got into a conversation with an Uber driver about the state of the New Orleans Saints.
His wound was still fresh after watching the Saints sputter to the finish line, losing their last four games for a 5-12 record. The driver pointed to old players on big contracts, Derek Carr’s shortcomings as a quarterback, and the prospect of hiring then-Philadelphia OC Kellen Moore.
Well Craig, two out of three ain’t bad.
New Orleans did hire Moore and Carr abruptly retired in the spring, but the Saints still have a bunch of aging stars clogging up their cash flow.
The term “transition year” may buy a little grace with the fanbase but all oddsmakers see is a team projected to finish at the bottom of the NFC.
The Saints are underdogs in all but one game – despite drawing one of the softest schedules – and the team’s win total (4.5 Over -155) is the lowest in the league.
Is the any betting value buried in the Big Easy or is NOLA a no-go for gamblers? Here’s my 2025 New Orleans Saints NFL betting preview.
New Orleans Saints best bets
Read on for Jason's full analysis and New Orleans Saints breakdown!
New Orleans Saints odds for 2025
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +40000 |
| Win conference | +10000 |
| Win division | +1200 |
| Make playoffs | +850 |
| Over 4.5 wins | -155 |
| Under 4.5 wins | +125 |
Best futures bet: Fourth in NFC South (-135)
The NFC South may not throw down the gauntlet like some other divisions, but Tampa Bay and Atlanta are fighting for first and Carolina at least looks like it wants to win games.
Those three rivals also have their QB situation sorted ahead of Week 1. As of this writing, the jury is still out on whether rookie Tyler Shough or second-year passer Spencer Rattler will be under center.
On top of working in a brand-new offense and defense, NOLA is asking a lot of young players to step up and a bunch of old players to stay healthy. The stars would have to align in the Crescent City for anything but a fourth-place flop in the NFC South.
New Orleans Saints at a glance: Less is Moore
Moore is a great hire and can adapt his schemes to fit personnel. He had success as an offensive coordinator but has also had capable QBs (Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, and Jalen Hurts) and plenty of talent running his stuff.
New Orleans has a solid offensive line and some standouts in RB Alvin Kamara and WR Chris Olave – both of which are a big hit away from sitting out.
What will win bets: Offensive line
There’s plenty of promise on the o-line in New Orleans and Moore’s offense in Philly was anchored in controlling the line of scrimmage. That said, this group is far from the dominant push of the Super Bowl champs.
High draft picks, 2025 selections (Kelvin Banks Jr. at No. 9), and offseason trades have the protection looking much better than last year. The 2024 Saints rated out 29th in pass block win rate.
A sturdy offensive line is imperative to the maturation (and health) of whichever young QB is taking snaps and can also spring catch-and-run weapons like Kamara and Taysom Hill.
What will lose bets: Offensive execution
As noted, Moore’s schemes used to run on high-octane arms. Now he’s asking two inexperienced passers to fuel that attack. There will be a learning curve for New Orleans’ offense.
The early schedule does the Saints very few favors. A Week 2 to Week 6 stretch throws San Francisco, Seattle, Buffalo, N.Y. Giants, and New England at New Orleans – all of which boast dangerous defenses.
Last year’s Saints averaged just shy of 20 points per game. Low totals and sizable underdog spreads predict more futility.
New Orleans Saints schedule + spot bet: Po’Boys and Points
The Saints have the second weakest slate in terms of strength of schedule which isn’t convincing oddsmakers to take it easy on New Orleans.
The team is an underdog in 16 of 17 games in 2025, drawing seven spreads of +6 or higher – five of which give NOLA a touchdown or more. The only time the Saints are laying points is a Week 16 homestand with the Jets (-1.5).
This new regime gets a baptism by fire between Week 3 and Week 10, playing five of eight away from the Superdome. After a Week 11 bye, however, there’s reason for optimism. The schedule lightens with “winnable” home dates versus Atlanta, Carolina and New York as well as a trip to Tennessee in Week 17.
Spot bet: Week 8 vs. Tampa Bay +5.5, 45.5
It’s not all gloom and doom in the Big Easy. Week 8 offers a “bet on” spot for New Orleans against the Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay comes to NOLA on a short week and lugging a letdown spot after playing at Detroit on Monday Night Football in Week 7. This will be the Bucs’ second straight away game and third road game in four weeks.
Waiting on the other side of the Saints is a Week 9 bye, which could have the Bucs thinking about time off after starting the season with five of eight games away from Tampa.
Saint goes marching
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Win MVP | +50000 |
| Win Offensive Player of the Year | +10000 |
| Over 750.5 Rushing Yards | -110 |
| Under 750.5 Rushing Yards | -110 |
| Over 4.5 Rushing Touchdowns | -115 |
| Under 4.5 Rushing Touchdowns | -105 |
Alvin Kamara best bet: Over 4.5 Rushing Touchdowns (-115)
Kamara is 30 years old, which is often the age running backs see their production fall off a cliff.
The dual-threat weapon made it through 14 games before missing the final three outings due to injury in 2024, amassing almost 1,500 yards of offense along with eight touchdowns – six coming on the ground.
The offense will lean on Kamara heavily while the QBs get their feet wet and this offensive line will help plow the road. Moore’s teams have success in the red zone and season-long projections for Kamara call for 4.5 to six scores on the ground from the veteran rusher.
New Orleans Saints trend: Flip of fortunes?
New Orleans gamblers are happy to see Dennis Allen’s departure.
In his three seasons as head coach of the Saints, the team ranked among the worst bets against the spread with a collective 20-30-1 ATS record in the regular season (40%).
We’ll see if Moore can make some money. At least he has a lot of point spread padding to play with. The Saints are big dogs most week and sit on the other side of a field goal (+3.5 or higher) in 12 games.
More NFL team previews
Want to see Jason's forecast for the rest of the NFL? Check out all of his NFL team previews below!
| Bills | Ravens | Texans | Broncos |
| Dolphins | Bengals | Colts | Chiefs |
| Patriots | Browns | Jaguars | Raiders |
| Jets | Steelers | Titans | Chargers |
| Cowboys | Bears | Falcons | Cardinals |
| Giants | Lions | Panthers | Rams |
| Eagles | Packers | Saints | 49ers |
| Commanders | Vikings | Buccaneers | Seahawks |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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