Jim Harbaugh’s return to the pros was celebrated by NFL bettors, with the Los Angeles Chargers posting a 12-5 ATS record in his first season as head coach.
Harbaugh did 49ers fans a similar solid when he took over in San Francisco in 2011, finishing his first season with a 12-3-1 ATS windfall. However, things got a little tougher in Year 2 with expectations raised, leading to a 9-7 ATS finish.
The 2025 Chargers also see the bar lifted in the latest NFL odds. After look-ahead lines had it as a favorite in nine games in 2024, this year’s early spreads have L.A. laying points 13 times, including six spreads of -3.5 or higher.
Can lightning strike twice for Bolts bettors?
I put my tongue to the battery with my 2025 Los Angeles Chargers NFL betting preview.
Los Angeles Chargers best bets
Read on for Jason's full analysis and Los Angeles Chargers breakdown!
Los Angeles Chargers odds for 2025
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +2800 |
| Win conference | +1100 |
| Win division | +300 |
| Make playoffs | -135 |
| Over 9.5 wins | +100 |
| Under 9.5 wins | -130 |
Best futures bet: Third in AFC West (+220)
Things are tight in the AFC West. So tight in fact that Los Angeles’ odds to finish second and third in the division are the same.
There’s no denying the impact Harbaugh has on the culture of this once-floundering franchise, and Greg Roman and defensive coordinator Jesse Minter are earning their paychecks as well.
However, good coaching and an elite quarterback can only get you so far.
The offense has gaps in the passing game, and the vaunted run attack is behind schedule due to Najee Harris damn near pulling a JPP. The defense is leaning hard on aging standouts and has lost some bite up front.
A daunting home stretch could see Los Angeles slip behind Kansas City and Denver in the final AFC West standings.
Los Angeles Chargers at a glance: Is Herbert + Harbaugh enough?
Justin Herbert is going to give the Chargers the edge at quarterback most Sundays, and Jim Harbaugh can outsmart most of the guys on the other sideline. Having the best QB and head coach is sometimes enough.
The 2024 Chargers were a new beast to opponents, but now foes have tape on Roman’s run-heavy playbook, and second-year WR Ladd McConkey isn’t catching anyone off guard after his insane rookie season.
What will win bets: Rushing Attack
Roman’s rushing schemes kept things simple in L.A., with the offense handing off at the 10th highest rate in the league in 2024.
The fragile running backs of last season were replaced by Harris and first-round pick Omarion Hampton, giving this ground game more pop. The running blocking was also boosted, adding Mekhi Becton to the offensive line.
Dominating the ground game has a trickle-down effect throughout the team. The Chargers will improve on third downs, red zone TDs, and time of possession — creating space for Herbert in play action and protecting a defense that isn’t as good as last year.
What will lose bets: Defense
Minter made the most of his 2024 defense, but those impressive stats were helped along by a slew of inexperienced or underperforming rival QBs.
Los Angeles scored victories over Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Bo Nix, Spencer Rattler/Jake Haener, Jameis Winston, Will Levis, Kirk Cousins, Drake Maye, and Aiden O’Connell.
The pass rush loses teeth with Joey Bosa and Poona Ford gone. The Bolts scored 46 sacks despite the fourth-lowest pressure rate. Tuli Tuipulotu is a game wrecker but is backed up by the aging legs of Khalil Mack, Bud Dupree, and Derwin James.
The Chargers play a compressed, travel-heavy schedule in the opening eight weeks. We’ll see how those veterans hold up.
Los Angeles Chargers schedule + spot bet: Lightning crashes
It all starts with a trip to Brazil to play Kansas City in Week 1, stripping the Chargers of a home game against their most difficult opponent.
From there, the Bolts play three of the first four games away from SoFi Stadium. Due to a Monday nighter at Las Vegas in Week 2 and a Thursday nighter versus Minnesota in Week 8, Los Angeles squeezes seven games into 38 days.
Just when you thought it was safe to have faith in the Chargers, a gauntlet is thrown down in the final five weeks — one that will define the division and the AFC playoff order.
Los Angeles hosts Philadelphia (MNF) in Week 14, visits chilly Arrowhead in Week 15, is at Dallas in Week 16, home to Houston in Week 17, and travels up the mountain to visit snowy Denver in Week 18.
Spot bet: Week 4 at N.Y. Giants -3.5, 43.5
It won’t take long for the Chargers to feel the crunch of the schedule. This Week 4 trip to East Rutherford will be the Bolts’ third away game in four weeks (thanks to Brazil in Week 1).
On top of that, L.A. is coming off a crucial AFC West clash with Denver at home in Week 3 and has a Week 5 home date with Washington on the other side of the Giants. Yum, that’s a zesty situational sandwich right there.
The Chargers were 7-2 ATS on the road in 2024, including 5-1 ATS as road favorites. This season, Los Angeles is laying points in six of its eight true away games.
Justin-Credible
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Win MVP | +1600 |
| Lead NFL in passing yards | +2200 |
| Over 3625.5 passing yards | -110 |
| Under 3625.5 passing yards | -110 |
| Over 22.5 passing touchdowns | +100 |
| Under 22.5 passing touchdowns | -130 |
Justin Herbert best bet: Over 3625.5 Passing Yards (-110)
I’m not running through walls to bet this Over, knowing how run-centric this playbook is and the shallow depth chart at WR. However, we forget Herbert entered last season with a foot injury, which tempered his stats in the opening month of play.
Herbert topped out at 179 passing yards in the first four games before finding his way in this new system. His attempts skyrocketed in the final two months of the schedule, and he ultimately eclipsed his 2024 total of 3,575.5 yards.
This year’s ask is a little higher but very achievable, considering season-long models range from 3,700 to 4,100.
Los Angeles Chargers trend: Non-Conference Unders
The switch to Harbaugh doesn’t leave many tangible trends for the Chargers, but Los Angeles finished 1-4 Over/Under against the NFC in 2024.
That makes this franchise 5-14-1 O/U in non-conference games since 2021 (74% Unders). Put the Bolts on the road in those non-con clashes and they’re 1-8-1 O/U (0-3 O/U last season).
Los Angeles Chargers non-conference road games
- Week 4 at N.Y. Giants: O/U 43.5
- Week 16 at Dallas: O/U 46.5
More NFL team previews
| Bills | Ravens | Texans | Broncos |
| Dolphins | Bengals | Colts | Chiefs |
| Patriots | Browns | Jaguars | Raiders |
| Jets | Steelers | Titans | Chargers |
| Cowboys | Bears | Falcons | Cardinals |
| Giants | Lions | Panthers | Rams |
| Eagles | Packers | Saints | 49ers |
| Commanders | Vikings | Buccaneers | Seahawks |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
