NBA Picks

Diabate has been on the court for 30+ minutes in three straight contests, and that’s resulted in a larger offensive output. The big man has cashed the Over in points in all of those games, dropping 14,10, and 12 points.

This year, the opposing team's starting PFs have tallied 14.4 field goal attempts per game (5th-highest in the league) vs. the Golden State Warriors, resulting in a favorable matchup.. The Charlotte Hornets check in as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional chances for scoring and assists).. This year when they are playing at home, opposing starting PFs have attempted 4.9 free throws per game (8th-most in the league) vs. the Golden State Warriors, succeeding in their efforts to draw fouls.

If you hadn’t watched the Orlando Magic until the past few weeks, it’s no exaggeration to say that you might wonder if Anthony Black was their franchise player.

Black has taken a huge leap in his third season, and he’s now scored 20+ points in six of his last seven contests. He's also averaged 4.5 APG in December, and this Over represents a winning ticket in each of his last four games. 

With respect to shooting, the Magic's lackluster 109.0 points per game measures as the 3rd-lowest in the NBA over the last 5 games.. The 4th-slowest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Magic.. The Magic will likely suffer a reduction in opportunities in this game from facing the 10th-least up-tempo tempo team in the league over the last 15 games (the Indiana Pacers).

While this is a hefty total, the midafternoon tip helps its cause. When the Timberwolves’ effort or focus lags, it shows up defensively, part of why they have cashed three straight Overs. And when Trae Young is in the lineup, the Hawks are obviously more prone to the Over, in no small part because of his lackluster defense, part of why they have cleared the Over in their last two games by 9.5 and 33 points.

The Hawks are in a free-fall, having dropped seven straight games, while the TWolves are coming off a 136-point outburst vs. the Bulls. I'll take the better all-around team here on the road laying a short price. 

This is my favorite prop on the New Year’s Eve board, and with a 3:30 p.m. ET tip, it gives you a perfect afternoon sweat before heading out for your NYE plans. Darius Garland’s points prop is set at 17.5 with the Over priced at +105, and I make this number much closer to -180 — a massive edge. The Suns have physical defenders, but they lack quickness, which creates a tough matchup against Garland, one of the fastest guards in the league. With Dillon Brooks and other defenders keyed in on Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley, Garland should consistently be able to exploit Devin Booker’s average defense.

Jarrett Allen showed his value in Monday’s win over the Spurs, finishing with 27 points and 10 rebounds. While that level of scoring jumps out as an anomaly, his impact on the glass feels more reliable, and I see him hauling in 8+ rebounds here for the fourth time in his last five contests.

De’Aaron Fox has had a couple of recent games where he finished well under his points total with single-digit scoring, and that’s pushed his line down to 19.5 — creating an edge for us. Those poor scoring games came in blowout Spurs wins, where his minutes and usage took a hit. Fox is a clutch scorer who thrives in close, competitive games, and that’s exactly what we’re projecting on Wednesday with San Antonio favored by just 1.5 points against the Knicks. With Devin Vassell out and Stephon Castle questionable, this 19.5 number feels far too low and should be priced closer to -165 rather than -120.

It’s a New Year’s Eve rematch of the NBA Cup Championship, and Jalen Brunson’s points prop is set at 28.5 with the Over priced at -106. I see clear value here, as I think this line should be closer to -140. Victor Wembanyama is the best rim protector in the league, but his impact is far more disruptive to Karl-Anthony Towns than to Brunson. Brunson scores by living off pull-up jumpers, three-point shooting, and crafty floaters in the lane — shot types that don’t force him into Wembanyama’s shot-blocking presence. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Brunson is able to manipulate De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle defensively to draw extra trips to the free-throw line.

The Bulls have been the 10th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA this year.. The 2nd-speediest pace team in the league this year has been the Chicago Bulls.. The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 4th-speediest tempo in the league over the last 10 games, which ought to boost opportunities for the Bulls.

The Chicago Bulls have been the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

The Toronto Raptors have been the lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 15 games.. The Raptors have played at the 2nd-most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing at home.

The Raptors have played at the 2nd-most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing at home.

The Milwaukee Bucks check in as the 8th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 16 games on their home court.. The matchup against Washington is a good one; when the Wizards are on the road, they have given up the 5th-most points per game in the NBA to opposing starting SGs this year (16.9).. Over the last 5 games when they have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting SGs have attempted 2.8 foul shots per game (8th-highest in the league) against the Wizards, succeeding in their efforts to get to the free-throw line.

The Milwaukee Bucks check in as the 8th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 16 games on their home court.

Portland has had offensive success against Oklahoma City this year, and the Thunder are trying to figure things out on defense at the moment while thier offense keeps humming along. I'm taking the Over.

The matchup vs. the Thunder is a strong one for shot attempts from downtown; the other team's starting PGs have totaled the most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (7.7).. The Portland Trail Blazers have played at the 6th-quickest tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games as the road team.. The Thunder have played at the 6th-speediest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games on their home court, which ought to lead to increased possessions for the Portland Trail Blazers.. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and bring about added opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Portland Trail Blazers rank 2nd-best in the league as the visting team with 14.8 offensive boards per game this year.. The matchup vs. the Thunder is a good one for drawing fouls; opposing starting PGs have attempted a colossal 5.2 free throws per game this year (most in the league).