Today's NBA Picks

Miami Miami Logo at Boston Logo Boston
Pick - Prop
Boston Jrue Holiday o10.5 Points Scored (-102)

With Boston building a massive lead (got as big as 34 points in the second half) in Game 1, there was little pressure for Holiday to press the issues on offense, leading to his lowest scoring output in a postseason game in four years. Holiday has had success scoring against Miami this season, posting efforts of 15, 17, and 17 points in the three meetings prior to the playoff opener. Player projections for Game 2 aren’t that bullish on the veteran guard but they do all call for 11 or more points, with a ceiling of 13-plus from one forecast. My number comes out just shy of 12 points from Holiday. Given that projection, the Over 10.5 points from Holiday should be priced in the -133 range. Go get the shorter juice on the o10.5 now.

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Jason Logan - Pick Made 8 hrs, 13 min ago.

Miami Miami Logo at Boston Logo Boston
Pick - Prop
Miami Jaime Jacquez Jr. o14.5 points (-106)

Jacquez dropped 16 points on 8-16 shooting in Gm 1. The fact that he logged 36 minutes and took 16 field goal attempts without getting to the charity stripe once, makes it look likely that he'll eclipse 14.5 points even if he there's some regression in his shooting efficiency. Jacquez has been consistently productive when given extensive playing time, averaging 15.1 points in 32.8 minutes per game in 20 contests as a starter. With Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier sidelined by injuries, there are plenty of shots to go around and while Jacquez is a rookie he's 23 years old and won't be intimidated by the physical nature of NBA playoff ball.

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Rohit Ponnaiya - Pick Made 4 hrs, 43 min ago.

Best Odds -106
Miami Miami Logo at Boston Logo Boston
Pick - Prop
Boston Jayson Tatum o8.5 rebounds (-120)

In the 2023 playoffs, Tatum grabbed at least nine rebounds in 15 of 20 games. Many like to criticize Tatum for his postseason performances, but that is largely based in rings culture. While the Celtics have never won it all, Tatum performs in the postseason. He fills a stat sheet like few others. That continued with Sunday’s triple-double. Laughing at his 1-of-8 shooting from beyond the arc misses the fact that Tatum logged 23 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists. His postseason effort cannot be knocked. That effort is most replicable and consistent on the glass.

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Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 4 hrs, 8 min ago.

Best Odds -120
New Orleans New Orleans Logo at Oklahoma City Logo Oklahoma City
Pick - Prop
Oklahoma City Josh Giddey o1.5 turnovers (-170)

Giddey struggled in Game 1, finishing with just two points in 20 minutes. Despite not playing much and having a lower usage rate than usual, Giddey still turned the ball over twice. Expect OKC to try to get Giddey more involved tonight which should result in even more turnovers from the young guard. In Giddey's last five regular season games, he turned the ball over at least three times in each contest, averaging 4.6 turnovers per game during that span. With the Pels fifth in the league in opponent TO rate during the regular season, the o1.5 on Giddey's turnovers seems a safe bet. 

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Rohit Ponnaiya - Pick Made 4 hrs, 37 min ago.

Best Odds -170
New Orleans New Orleans Logo at Oklahoma City Logo Oklahoma City
Pick - Prop
New Orleans Jonas Valanciunas o11.5 rebounds (-102)

OKC was just 28th in rebounding rate during the regular season and that was evident in Game 1 with Valanciunas racking up 20 rebounds. Valanciunas averaged a modest 8.8 rpg during the regular season but played just 23.5 mpg due to the presence of Zion Williamson. He logged 29 minutes in Gm 1 with Zion sidelined by an injury and he could see even more playing time tonight due to how good the Pels looked with him on the floor. Rail-thin rookie Chet Holmgren is OKC's primary big man with 6-foot-5 Jalen Williams usually slotting into the 4 spot and that will result in a matchup advantage for the 6-foot-11, 265-pound Valanciunas. 

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Rohit Ponnaiya - Pick Made 4 hrs, 29 min ago.

Best Odds -102
New Orleans New Orleans Logo at Oklahoma City Logo Oklahoma City
Pick - Total
New Orleans at Oklahoma City o211.5 (-110)

Game 1’s total was set at 216.5. Books dropping Game 2’s total to 211.5 is an overreaction to that 94-92 thriller. In the final six weeks of the regular season, New Orleans got to the line at the No. 8 rate in the NBA while OKC did so at the No. 14 rate. Both shot plenty of free throws. Meanwhile, the Thunder gave up free throws at the ninth-highest rate in the NBA, yet the Pelicans took just 9 in Game 1. Logic and precedent both say tonight will feature more free throws, and that alone should raise this final score more toward what was expected before Game 1’s clunker.

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Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 4 hrs, 13 min ago.

New Orleans New Orleans Logo at Oklahoma City Logo Oklahoma City
Pick - Prop
New Orleans Brandon Ingram u19.5 points (+100)

Doubting Ingram’s points might come across as misguided doubt of a scorer in the postseason. Pointing out he scored just 12 points on 17 shots in Game 1 would run counter a voiced ethos of not overreacting to Game 1 results. But the actual doubt is in Ingram since he came back from a bone bruise on his knee. He has averaged 15 points in his four games back, clearing 20 points in only the final Play-In game. Ingram has shot 25-of-58 in those games, 43.1%. Until he is consistently getting his buckets, Ingram the traditional scorer should be doubted a bit.

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Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 4 hrs, 6 min ago.

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