NFL Player Props and Best Projections

Play them straight or build a SGP with our FREE value projections: 

Matchups
Projections
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Chris Oladokun Passing Yards Props • Kansas City

Denver DEN @ Kansas City KC
Chris Oladokun
C. Oladokun
quarterback QB • Kansas City
Prop
148.5
Passing Yards
Projection
205.17
Best Odds

The Kansas City Chiefs may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to start backup QB Chris Oladokun. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Chiefs are big underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical approach. The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 133.0 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week. The Broncos defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (37.6 per game) this year.

Chris Oladokun logo

Chris Oladokun

Prop: 148.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 205.17
Prop:
148.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
205.17

The Kansas City Chiefs may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to start backup QB Chris Oladokun. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Chiefs are big underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical approach. The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 133.0 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week. The Broncos defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (37.6 per game) this year.

All Matchup props

Kirk Cousins Passing Yards Props • Atlanta

Los Angeles LA @ Atlanta ATL
Kirk Cousins
K. Cousins
quarterback QB • Atlanta
Prop
220.5
Passing Yards
Projection
274.95
Best Odds

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a giant -8-point underdog in this week's game. The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons as the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (37.7 per game) this year.

Kirk Cousins logo

Kirk Cousins

Prop: 220.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 274.95
Prop:
220.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
274.95

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a giant -8-point underdog in this week's game. The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons as the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (37.7 per game) this year.

All Matchup props

Zay Flowers Receiving Yards Props • Baltimore

Baltimore BAL @ Green Bay GB
Zay Flowers
Z. Flowers
wide receiver WR • Baltimore
Prop
45.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
71.97
Best Odds
Prop
45.5 Receiving Yards
Projection
71.97
Best Odds
Projection Rating

This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Ravens, who are -3.5-point underdogs. Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense this year: 8th-most in football. Zay Flowers has run a route on 94.9% of his offense's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers. This week, Zay Flowers is predicted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 95th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 9.1 targets. Zay Flowers has accrued a staggering 71.0 air yards per game this year: 80th percentile among wide receivers.

Zay Flowers logo

Zay Flowers

Prop: 45.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 71.97
Prop:
45.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
71.97

This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Ravens, who are -3.5-point underdogs. Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense this year: 8th-most in football. Zay Flowers has run a route on 94.9% of his offense's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers. This week, Zay Flowers is predicted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 95th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 9.1 targets. Zay Flowers has accrued a staggering 71.0 air yards per game this year: 80th percentile among wide receivers.

All Matchup props

Xavier Worthy Receiving Yards Props • Kansas City

Denver DEN @ Kansas City KC
Xavier Worthy
X. Worthy
wide receiver WR • Kansas City
Prop
28.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
49.71
Best Odds

The Kansas City Chiefs may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to start backup QB Chris Oladokun. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Chiefs are big underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical approach. The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 133.0 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week. The Broncos defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (37.6 per game) this year.

Xavier Worthy logo

Xavier Worthy

Prop: 28.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 49.71
Prop:
28.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
49.71

The Kansas City Chiefs may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to start backup QB Chris Oladokun. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Chiefs are big underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical approach. The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 133.0 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week. The Broncos defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (37.6 per game) this year.

All Matchup props

Joe Burrow Passing Yards Props • Cincinnati

Arizona ARI @ Cincinnati CIN
Joe Burrow
J. Burrow
quarterback QB • Cincinnati
Prop
261.5
Passing Yards
Projection
310.3
Best Odds

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 61.2% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The model projects Joe Burrow to throw 38.8 passes this week, on balance: the 2nd-most out of all QBs. The Arizona Cardinals safeties grade out as the 5th-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

Joe Burrow logo

Joe Burrow

Prop: 261.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 310.3
Prop:
261.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
310.3

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 61.2% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The model projects Joe Burrow to throw 38.8 passes this week, on balance: the 2nd-most out of all QBs. The Arizona Cardinals safeties grade out as the 5th-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

All Matchup props

Cam Ward Rushing Yards Props • Tennessee

New Orleans NO @ Tennessee TEN
Cam Ward
C. Ward
quarterback QB • Tennessee
Prop
5.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
14.85
Best Odds
Prop
5.5 Rushing Yards
Projection
14.85
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Our trusted projections expect the Titans to be the 10th-most run-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.4% run rate. The model projects this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 132.8 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.

Cam Ward logo

Cam Ward

Prop: 5.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 14.85
Prop:
5.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
14.85

Our trusted projections expect the Titans to be the 10th-most run-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.4% run rate. The model projects this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 132.8 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.

All Matchup props

Jacoby Brissett Rushing Yards Props • Arizona

Arizona ARI @ Cincinnati CIN
Jacoby Brissett
J. Brissett
quarterback QB • Arizona
Prop
8.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
18.09
Best Odds
Prop
8.5 Rushing Yards
Projection
18.09
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have 131.7 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week. The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Cardinals this year (a colossal 60.8 per game on average). Jacoby Brissett has been much more involved in his offense's running game this year (13.2% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (5.6%). Opposing offenses have rushed for the most adjusted yards in the league (156 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year. The Cincinnati Bengals safeties grade out as the 32nd-worst collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

Jacoby Brissett logo

Jacoby Brissett

Prop: 8.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 18.09
Prop:
8.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
18.09

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have 131.7 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week. The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Cardinals this year (a colossal 60.8 per game on average). Jacoby Brissett has been much more involved in his offense's running game this year (13.2% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (5.6%). Opposing offenses have rushed for the most adjusted yards in the league (156 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year. The Cincinnati Bengals safeties grade out as the 32nd-worst collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

All Matchup props

Tyler Shough Passing Yards Props • New Orleans

New Orleans NO @ Tennessee TEN
Tyler Shough
T. Shough
quarterback QB • New Orleans
Prop
222.5
Passing Yards
Projection
189.46
Best Odds

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints as the 2nd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.1% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Tyler Shough logo

Tyler Shough

Prop: 222.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 189.46
Prop:
222.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
189.46

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints as the 2nd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.1% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

All Matchup props

C.J. Stroud Rushing Yards Props • Houston

Houston HOU @ Los Angeles LAC
C.J. Stroud
C. Stroud
quarterback QB • Houston
Prop
10.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
20.17
Best Odds

With respect to a defense's effect on tempo, at 27.32 seconds per play, our trusted projections expect the Texans as the 2nd-fastest in the league (adjusted for context) right now.

C.J. Stroud logo

C.J. Stroud

Prop: 10.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 20.17
Prop:
10.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
20.17

With respect to a defense's effect on tempo, at 27.32 seconds per play, our trusted projections expect the Texans as the 2nd-fastest in the league (adjusted for context) right now.

All Matchup props

Geno Smith Rushing Yards Props • Las Vegas

New York NYG @ Las Vegas LV
Geno Smith
G. Smith
quarterback QB • Las Vegas
Prop
7.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
15.86
Best Odds
Prop
7.5 Rushing Yards
Projection
15.86
Best Odds
Projection Rating

With an exceptional tally of 2.65 yards-after-contact (92nd percentile), Geno Smith rates among the best running QBs in the NFL this year. The Giants defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering 5.70 adjusted yards-per-carry. As it relates to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, New York's collection of DEs has been lousy this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Geno Smith logo

Geno Smith

Prop: 7.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 15.86
Prop:
7.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
15.86

With an exceptional tally of 2.65 yards-after-contact (92nd percentile), Geno Smith rates among the best running QBs in the NFL this year. The Giants defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering 5.70 adjusted yards-per-carry. As it relates to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, New York's collection of DEs has been lousy this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

All Matchup props

Kareem Hunt Rushing Yards Props • Kansas City

Denver DEN @ Kansas City KC
Kareem Hunt
K. Hunt
running back RB • Kansas City
Prop
16.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
30.84
Best Odds

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 135.8 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week. The 9th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a colossal 59.3 per game on average). The Denver defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-worst collection of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

Kareem Hunt logo

Kareem Hunt

Prop: 16.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 30.84
Prop:
16.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
30.84

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 135.8 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week. The 9th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a colossal 59.3 per game on average). The Denver defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-worst collection of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

All Matchup props

Philip Rivers Passing Yards Props • Indianapolis

Jacksonville JAC @ Indianapolis IND
Philip Rivers
P. Rivers
quarterback QB • Indianapolis
Prop
204.5
Passing Yards
Projection
248.6
Best Odds

The Indianapolis Colts may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more rushes) given that they be starting backup quarterback Philip Rivers. The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The model projects the Colts to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.3 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: most in the NFL.

Philip Rivers logo

Philip Rivers

Prop: 204.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 248.6
Prop:
204.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
248.6

The Indianapolis Colts may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more rushes) given that they be starting backup quarterback Philip Rivers. The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The model projects the Colts to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.3 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: most in the NFL.

All Matchup props

Woody Marks Receiving Yards Props • Houston

Houston HOU @ Los Angeles LAC
Woody Marks
W. Marks
running back RB • Houston
Prop
6.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
12.38
Best Odds
Prop
6.5 Receiving Yards
Projection
12.38
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Right now, the 10th-most pass-focused team in the league (62.3% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Houston Texans. With respect to a defense's effect on tempo, at 27.32 seconds per play, our trusted projections expect the Texans as the 2nd-fastest in the league (adjusted for context) right now. Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with increased passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume.

Woody Marks logo

Woody Marks

Prop: 6.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 12.38
Prop:
6.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
12.38

Right now, the 10th-most pass-focused team in the league (62.3% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Houston Texans. With respect to a defense's effect on tempo, at 27.32 seconds per play, our trusted projections expect the Texans as the 2nd-fastest in the league (adjusted for context) right now. Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with increased passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume.

All Matchup props

Drake London Receiving Yards Props • Atlanta

Los Angeles LA @ Atlanta ATL
Drake London
D. London
wide receiver WR • Atlanta
Prop
62.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
94
Best Odds

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a giant -8-point underdog in this week's game. The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons as the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (37.7 per game) this year.

Drake London logo

Drake London

Prop: 62.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 94
Prop:
62.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
94

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a giant -8-point underdog in this week's game. The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons as the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (37.7 per game) this year.

All Matchup props

Brock Purdy Rushing Yards Props • San Francisco

Chicago CHI @ San Francisco SF
Brock Purdy
B. Purdy
quarterback QB • San Francisco
Prop
11.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
20.03
Best Odds

The 49ers are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a running game script. The predictive model expects the 49ers to call the 9th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The San Francisco 49ers have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 59.2 plays per game. This year, the fierce Chicago Bears run defense has allowed a feeble 5.04 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 28th-best rate in the league. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Chicago's unit has been terrible this year, ranking as the 5th-worst in football. in football.

Brock Purdy logo

Brock Purdy

Prop: 11.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 20.03
Prop:
11.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
20.03

The 49ers are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a running game script. The predictive model expects the 49ers to call the 9th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The San Francisco 49ers have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 59.2 plays per game. This year, the fierce Chicago Bears run defense has allowed a feeble 5.04 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 28th-best rate in the league. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Chicago's unit has been terrible this year, ranking as the 5th-worst in football. in football.

All Matchup props

Geno Smith Passing Yards Props • Las Vegas

New York NYG @ Las Vegas LV
Geno Smith
G. Smith
quarterback QB • Las Vegas
Prop
207.5
Passing Yards
Projection
246.72
Best Odds

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 59.6% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Giants pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency this year, giving up 7.88 adjusted yards-per-target: the 10th-most in the NFL.

Geno Smith logo

Geno Smith

Prop: 207.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 246.72
Prop:
207.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
246.72

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 59.6% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Giants pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency this year, giving up 7.88 adjusted yards-per-target: the 10th-most in the NFL.

All Matchup props

Drake Maye Rushing Yards Props • New England

New England NE @ New York NYJ
Drake Maye
D. Maye
quarterback QB • New England
Prop
20.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
31.02
Best Odds
Prop
20.5 Rushing Yards
Projection
31.02
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The Patriots are a massive 13.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Patriots to run on 47.5% of their plays: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week. This year, the weak Jets run defense has yielded a colossal 136.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 6th-most in football. As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, New York's safety corps has been lousy this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in the league. in the league.

Drake Maye logo

Drake Maye

Prop: 20.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 31.02
Prop:
20.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
31.02

The Patriots are a massive 13.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Patriots to run on 47.5% of their plays: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week. This year, the weak Jets run defense has yielded a colossal 136.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 6th-most in football. As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, New York's safety corps has been lousy this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in the league. in the league.

All Matchup props

Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards Props • Cincinnati

Arizona ARI @ Cincinnati CIN
Mike Gesicki
M. Gesicki
tight end TE • Cincinnati
Prop
25.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
36.77
Best Odds
Prop
25.5 Receiving Yards
Projection
36.77
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 61.2% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. In this week's contest, Mike Gesicki is expected by the projection model to place in the 78th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.9 targets. Mike Gesicki has totaled a staggering 36.0 air yards per game this year: 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends. This year, the porous Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded a staggering 65.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 5th-worst in the NFL.

Mike Gesicki logo

Mike Gesicki

Prop: 25.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 36.77
Prop:
25.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
36.77

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 61.2% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. In this week's contest, Mike Gesicki is expected by the projection model to place in the 78th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.9 targets. Mike Gesicki has totaled a staggering 36.0 air yards per game this year: 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends. This year, the porous Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded a staggering 65.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 5th-worst in the NFL.

All Matchup props

Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Props • L.A. Rams

Los Angeles LA @ Atlanta ATL
Matthew Stafford
M. Stafford
quarterback QB • L.A. Rams
Prop
267.5
Passing Yards
Projection
307.68
Best Odds

The leading projections forecast the Rams as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to see 133.2 offensive plays run: the highest number out of all the games this week. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. This week, Matthew Stafford is forecasted by the projections to average the most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.0. With an outstanding tally of 254.0 adjusted passing yards per game (95th percentile), Matthew Stafford places as one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL this year.

Matthew Stafford logo

Matthew Stafford

Prop: 267.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 307.68
Prop:
267.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
307.68

The leading projections forecast the Rams as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to see 133.2 offensive plays run: the highest number out of all the games this week. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. This week, Matthew Stafford is forecasted by the projections to average the most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.0. With an outstanding tally of 254.0 adjusted passing yards per game (95th percentile), Matthew Stafford places as one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL this year.

All Matchup props

Keenan Allen Receiving Yards Props • L.A. Chargers

Houston HOU @ Los Angeles LAC
Keenan Allen
K. Allen
wide receiver WR • L.A. Chargers
Prop
33.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
48.08
Best Odds

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.0% pass rate. The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. In this contest, Keenan Allen is projected by the projections to place in the 86th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.7 targets. Keenan Allen checks in as one of the leading pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a stellar 47.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 81st percentile. Keenan Allen's 70.6% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a meaningful progression in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 61.0% figure.

Keenan Allen logo

Keenan Allen

Prop: 33.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 48.08
Prop:
33.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
48.08

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.0% pass rate. The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. In this contest, Keenan Allen is projected by the projections to place in the 86th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.7 targets. Keenan Allen checks in as one of the leading pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a stellar 47.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 81st percentile. Keenan Allen's 70.6% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a meaningful progression in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 61.0% figure.

All Matchup props

Theo Johnson Receiving Yards Props • N.Y. Giants

New York NYG @ Las Vegas LV
Theo Johnson
T. Johnson
tight end TE • N.Y. Giants
Prop
31.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
43.39
Best Odds

The Giants have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.5 plays per game. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. The Raiders safeties project as the 3rd-worst safety corps in football this year in pass coverage.

Theo Johnson logo

Theo Johnson

Prop: 31.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 43.39
Prop:
31.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
43.39

The Giants have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.5 plays per game. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. The Raiders safeties project as the 3rd-worst safety corps in football this year in pass coverage.

All Matchup props

Colby Parkinson Receiving Yards Props • L.A. Rams

Los Angeles LA @ Atlanta ATL
Colby Parkinson
C. Parkinson
tight end TE • L.A. Rams
Prop
34.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
46.81
Best Odds
Prop
34.5 Receiving Yards
Projection
46.81
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The leading projections forecast the Rams as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to see 133.2 offensive plays run: the highest number out of all the games this week. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. This week, Colby Parkinson is predicted by the model to place in the 92nd percentile among tight ends with 6.8 targets. While Colby Parkinson has garnered 9.9% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Los Angeles's passing offense in this week's game at 18.0%.

Colby Parkinson logo

Colby Parkinson

Prop: 34.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 46.81
Prop:
34.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
46.81

The leading projections forecast the Rams as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to see 133.2 offensive plays run: the highest number out of all the games this week. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. This week, Colby Parkinson is predicted by the model to place in the 92nd percentile among tight ends with 6.8 targets. While Colby Parkinson has garnered 9.9% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Los Angeles's passing offense in this week's game at 18.0%.

All Matchup props

Omarion Hampton Receiving Yards Props • L.A. Chargers

Houston HOU @ Los Angeles LAC
Omarion Hampton
O. Hampton
running back RB • L.A. Chargers
Prop
10.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
17.91
Best Odds

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.1% pass rate. The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Omarion Hampton logo

Omarion Hampton

Prop: 10.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 17.91
Prop:
10.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
17.91

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.1% pass rate. The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

All Matchup props

Brock Bowers Receiving Yards Props • Las Vegas

New York NYG @ Las Vegas LV
Brock Bowers
B. Bowers
tight end TE • Las Vegas
Prop
53.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
68.1
Best Odds
Prop
53.5 Receiving Yards
Projection
68.1
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 58.7% of their chances: the 9th-greatest rate among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Brock Bowers logo

Brock Bowers

Prop: 53.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 68.1
Prop:
53.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
68.1

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 58.7% of their chances: the 9th-greatest rate among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

All Matchup props

Ashton Jeanty Receiving Yards Props • Las Vegas

New York NYG @ Las Vegas LV
Ashton Jeanty
A. Jeanty
running back RB • Las Vegas
Prop
27.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
38.68
Best Odds

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 59.6% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. This year, the deficient Giants defense has been gouged for a massive 35.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the 10th-most in the league. The New York Giants pass defense has given up the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (86.9%) versus running backs this year (86.9%).

Ashton Jeanty logo

Ashton Jeanty

Prop: 27.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 38.68
Prop:
27.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
38.68

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 59.6% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. This year, the deficient Giants defense has been gouged for a massive 35.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the 10th-most in the league. The New York Giants pass defense has given up the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (86.9%) versus running backs this year (86.9%).

All Matchup props

Ladd McConkey Receiving Yards Props • L.A. Chargers

Houston HOU @ Los Angeles LAC
Ladd McConkey
L. McConkey
wide receiver WR • L.A. Chargers
Prop
40.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
53.27
Best Odds

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.1% pass rate. The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Ladd McConkey logo

Ladd McConkey

Prop: 40.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 53.27
Prop:
40.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
53.27

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.1% pass rate. The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

All Matchup props

Drake Maye Passing Yards Props • New England

New England NE @ New York NYJ
Drake Maye
D. Maye
quarterback QB • New England
Prop
255.5
Passing Yards
Projection
224.27
Best Odds

The Patriots are a massive 13.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Patriots to pass on 52.5% of their downs: the 4th-lowest rate on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see only 126.8 offensive plays run: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.

Drake Maye logo

Drake Maye

Prop: 255.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 224.27
Prop:
255.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
224.27

The Patriots are a massive 13.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Patriots to pass on 52.5% of their downs: the 4th-lowest rate on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see only 126.8 offensive plays run: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.

All Matchup props

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Props • Buffalo

Philadelphia PHI @ Buffalo BUF
Josh Allen
J. Allen
quarterback QB • Buffalo
Prop
29.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
42.11
Best Odds

The predictive model expects the Bills to be the 3rd-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 47.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The projections expect Josh Allen to accrue 7.9 carries this week, on balance: the most out of all quarterbacks. The predictive model expects Josh Allen to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack in this week's contest (26.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (20.8% in games he has played). With a remarkable total of 33.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (97th percentile), Josh Allen ranks as one of the leading rushing QBs in the league this year. Josh Allen's 6.43 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year illustrates a noteable gain in his rushing skills over last year's 5.65 rate.

Josh Allen logo

Josh Allen

Prop: 29.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 42.11
Prop:
29.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
42.11

The predictive model expects the Bills to be the 3rd-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 47.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The projections expect Josh Allen to accrue 7.9 carries this week, on balance: the most out of all quarterbacks. The predictive model expects Josh Allen to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack in this week's contest (26.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (20.8% in games he has played). With a remarkable total of 33.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (97th percentile), Josh Allen ranks as one of the leading rushing QBs in the league this year. Josh Allen's 6.43 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year illustrates a noteable gain in his rushing skills over last year's 5.65 rate.

All Matchup props

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Props • San Francisco

Chicago CHI @ San Francisco SF
Christian McCaffrey
C. McCaffrey
running back RB • San Francisco
Prop
38.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
50.48
Best Odds
Prop
38.5 Receiving Yards
Projection
50.48
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The predictive model expects the 49ers to call the 9th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The San Francisco 49ers have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 59.2 plays per game. Christian McCaffrey has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this year (81.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (68.1%). In this week's game, Christian McCaffrey is predicted by the projections to land in the 99th percentile among running backs with 7.7 targets. Christian McCaffrey has notched a staggering 22.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).

Christian McCaffrey logo

Christian McCaffrey

Prop: 38.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 50.48
Prop:
38.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
50.48

The predictive model expects the 49ers to call the 9th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The San Francisco 49ers have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 59.2 plays per game. Christian McCaffrey has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this year (81.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (68.1%). In this week's game, Christian McCaffrey is predicted by the projections to land in the 99th percentile among running backs with 7.7 targets. Christian McCaffrey has notched a staggering 22.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).

All Matchup props

Breece Hall Rushing Yards Props • N.Y. Jets

New England NE @ New York NYJ
Breece Hall
B. Hall
running back RB • N.Y. Jets
Prop
56.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
70.53
Best Odds

At the moment, the most run-oriented offense in the league (45.8% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Jets. In this game, Breece Hall is projected by the projections to rank in the 95th percentile among RBs with 18.5 carries. Out of all running backs, Breece Hall ranks in the 89th percentile for carries this year, accounting for 59.2% of the workload in his team's rushing attack. Breece Hall has picked up 52.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in the league when it comes to running backs (84th percentile).

Breece Hall logo

Breece Hall

Prop: 56.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 70.53
Prop:
56.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
70.53

At the moment, the most run-oriented offense in the league (45.8% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Jets. In this game, Breece Hall is projected by the projections to rank in the 95th percentile among RBs with 18.5 carries. Out of all running backs, Breece Hall ranks in the 89th percentile for carries this year, accounting for 59.2% of the workload in his team's rushing attack. Breece Hall has picked up 52.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in the league when it comes to running backs (84th percentile).

All Matchup props

Darren Waller Receiving Yards Props • Miami

Tampa Bay TB @ Miami MIA
Darren Waller
D. Waller
tight end TE • Miami
Prop
24.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
34.14
Best Odds
Prop
24.5 Receiving Yards
Projection
34.14
Best Odds
Projection Rating

A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -5.5-point underdog this week. This week, Darren Waller is expected by the projections to find himself in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.7 targets. As it relates to air yards, Darren Waller ranks in the towering 95th percentile among TEs this year, totaling a whopping 46.0 per game. Darren Waller ranks in the 92nd percentile among TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a massive 39.2 figure this year. This year, the weak Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been gouged for a massive 78.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 8th-biggest rate in football.

Darren Waller logo

Darren Waller

Prop: 24.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 34.14
Prop:
24.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
34.14

A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -5.5-point underdog this week. This week, Darren Waller is expected by the projections to find himself in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.7 targets. As it relates to air yards, Darren Waller ranks in the towering 95th percentile among TEs this year, totaling a whopping 46.0 per game. Darren Waller ranks in the 92nd percentile among TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a massive 39.2 figure this year. This year, the weak Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been gouged for a massive 78.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 8th-biggest rate in football.

All Matchup props

Jaxson Dart Passing Yards Props • N.Y. Giants

New York NYG @ Las Vegas LV
Jaxson Dart
J. Dart
quarterback QB • N.Y. Giants
Prop
185.5
Passing Yards
Projection
209.78
Best Odds

The Giants have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.5 plays per game. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-highest rate in the NFL versus the Raiders defense this year (73.0% Adjusted Completion%). The Raiders safeties project as the 3rd-worst safety corps in football this year in pass coverage.

Jaxson Dart logo

Jaxson Dart

Prop: 185.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 209.78
Prop:
185.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
209.78

The Giants have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.5 plays per game. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-highest rate in the NFL versus the Raiders defense this year (73.0% Adjusted Completion%). The Raiders safeties project as the 3rd-worst safety corps in football this year in pass coverage.

All Matchup props

Tyler Warren Receiving Yards Props • Indianapolis

Jacksonville JAC @ Indianapolis IND
Tyler Warren
T. Warren
tight end TE • Indianapolis
Prop
44.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
56.88
Best Odds
Prop
44.5 Receiving Yards
Projection
56.88
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The Indianapolis Colts may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more rushes) given that they be starting backup quarterback Philip Rivers. The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The model projects the Colts to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.3 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: most in the NFL.

Tyler Warren logo

Tyler Warren

Prop: 44.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 56.88
Prop:
44.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
56.88

The Indianapolis Colts may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more rushes) given that they be starting backup quarterback Philip Rivers. The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The model projects the Colts to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.3 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: most in the NFL.

All Matchup props

Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Props • Green Bay

Baltimore BAL @ Green Bay GB
Josh Jacobs
J. Jacobs
running back RB • Green Bay
Prop
48.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
61.33
Best Odds
Prop
48.5 Rushing Yards
Projection
61.33
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Packers to be the 10th-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 45.1% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect Josh Jacobs to earn 14.7 rush attempts in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile when it comes to RBs. Josh Jacobs has been given 60.6% of his team's run game usage this year, putting him in the 90th percentile when it comes to running backs.

Josh Jacobs logo

Josh Jacobs

Prop: 48.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 61.33
Prop:
48.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
61.33

The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Packers to be the 10th-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 45.1% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect Josh Jacobs to earn 14.7 rush attempts in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile when it comes to RBs. Josh Jacobs has been given 60.6% of his team's run game usage this year, putting him in the 90th percentile when it comes to running backs.

All Matchup props

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Props • Philadelphia

Philadelphia PHI @ Buffalo BUF
Saquon Barkley
S. Barkley
running back RB • Philadelphia
Prop
11.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
18.14
Best Odds

Saquon Barkley has run a route on 59.3% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs. In this game, Saquon Barkley is anticipated by the projections to slot into the 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.4 targets. Saquon Barkley has posted a staggering 2.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile among RBs. (This may not seem like a lot, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage). The Philadelphia offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing attack statistics across the board. Saquon Barkley rates as one of the best pass-game running backs this year, averaging a remarkable 16.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.

Saquon Barkley logo

Saquon Barkley

Prop: 11.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 18.14
Prop:
11.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
18.14

Saquon Barkley has run a route on 59.3% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs. In this game, Saquon Barkley is anticipated by the projections to slot into the 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.4 targets. Saquon Barkley has posted a staggering 2.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile among RBs. (This may not seem like a lot, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage). The Philadelphia offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing attack statistics across the board. Saquon Barkley rates as one of the best pass-game running backs this year, averaging a remarkable 16.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.

All Matchup props

Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards Props • Indianapolis

Jacksonville JAC @ Indianapolis IND
Jonathan Taylor
J. Taylor
running back RB • Indianapolis
Prop
73.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
89.96
Best Odds

The model projects Jonathan Taylor to accrue 21.2 rush attempts in this game, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among RBs. Among all RBs, Jonathan Taylor ranks in the 100th percentile for carries this year, comprising 83.4% of the workload in his team's rushing attack. With a remarkable total of 5.32 adjusted yards per carry (93rd percentile), Jonathan Taylor ranks among the top running backs in football this year.

Jonathan Taylor logo

Jonathan Taylor

Prop: 73.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 89.96
Prop:
73.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
89.96

The model projects Jonathan Taylor to accrue 21.2 rush attempts in this game, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among RBs. Among all RBs, Jonathan Taylor ranks in the 100th percentile for carries this year, comprising 83.4% of the workload in his team's rushing attack. With a remarkable total of 5.32 adjusted yards per carry (93rd percentile), Jonathan Taylor ranks among the top running backs in football this year.

All Matchup props

RJ Harvey Receiving Yards Props • Denver

Denver DEN @ Kansas City KC
RJ Harvey
R. Harvey
running back RB • Denver
Prop
15.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
23.12
Best Odds

The model projects the Denver Broncos to run the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.7 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics. The 7th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Denver Broncos this year (a staggering 59.5 per game on average). As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Denver Broncos grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year. The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (86.8%) to running backs this year (86.8%).

RJ Harvey logo

RJ Harvey

Prop: 15.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 23.12
Prop:
15.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
23.12

The model projects the Denver Broncos to run the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.7 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics. The 7th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Denver Broncos this year (a staggering 59.5 per game on average). As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Denver Broncos grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year. The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (86.8%) to running backs this year (86.8%).

All Matchup props

Michael Wilson Receiving Yards Props • Arizona

Arizona ARI @ Cincinnati CIN
Michael Wilson
M. Wilson
wide receiver WR • Arizona
Prop
60.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
49.53
Best Odds

As it relates to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Arizona Cardinals ranks as the 5th-worst in the league this year. Michael Wilson's 63.6% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a remarkable reduction in his pass-catching talent over last year's 67.0% rate. Michael Wilson's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year signifies a noteworthy diminishment in his effectiveness in the open field over last year's 1.8% rate. The Bengals defense has conceded the 8th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 126.0) vs. wide receivers this year.

Michael Wilson logo

Michael Wilson

Prop: 60.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 49.53
Prop:
60.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
49.53

As it relates to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Arizona Cardinals ranks as the 5th-worst in the league this year. Michael Wilson's 63.6% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a remarkable reduction in his pass-catching talent over last year's 67.0% rate. Michael Wilson's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year signifies a noteworthy diminishment in his effectiveness in the open field over last year's 1.8% rate. The Bengals defense has conceded the 8th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 126.0) vs. wide receivers this year.

All Matchup props

Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards Props • Philadelphia

Philadelphia PHI @ Buffalo BUF
Saquon Barkley
S. Barkley
running back RB • Philadelphia
Prop
84.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
70.53
Best Odds

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to have just 124.3 total plays run: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week. The 9th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Eagles this year (only 54.9 per game on average). Saquon Barkley has run for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (63.0) this season than he did last season (118.0). Saquon Barkley's rushing efficiency has diminished this year, compiling a measly 3.86 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 5.48 rate last year.

Saquon Barkley logo

Saquon Barkley

Prop: 84.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 70.53
Prop:
84.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
70.53

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to have just 124.3 total plays run: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week. The 9th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Eagles this year (only 54.9 per game on average). Saquon Barkley has run for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (63.0) this season than he did last season (118.0). Saquon Barkley's rushing efficiency has diminished this year, compiling a measly 3.86 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 5.48 rate last year.

All Matchup props

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards Props • Cincinnati

Arizona ARI @ Cincinnati CIN
Joe Burrow
J. Burrow
quarterback QB • Cincinnati
Prop
5.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
10.03
Best Odds
Prop
5.5 Rushing Yards
Projection
10.03
Best Odds
Projection Rating

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Bengals, who are a huge favorite by 7.5 points. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. This year, the stout Arizona Cardinals run defense has surrendered a feeble 5.22 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 29th-lowest rate in football. The Arizona defensive ends project as the 4th-worst collection of DEs in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Joe Burrow logo

Joe Burrow

Prop: 5.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 10.03
Prop:
5.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
10.03

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Bengals, who are a huge favorite by 7.5 points. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. This year, the stout Arizona Cardinals run defense has surrendered a feeble 5.22 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 29th-lowest rate in football. The Arizona defensive ends project as the 4th-worst collection of DEs in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.

All Matchup props

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Props • Green Bay

Baltimore BAL @ Green Bay GB
Josh Jacobs
J. Jacobs
running back RB • Green Bay
Prop
9.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
15.12
Best Odds
Prop
9.5 Receiving Yards
Projection
15.12
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Opposing QBs have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the league. Josh Jacobs has been a key part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 10.7% this year, which ranks him in the 88th percentile among RBs. With a terrific 19.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (87th percentile) this year, Josh Jacobs has been as one of the leading pass-game RBs in the league. The Ravens defense has surrendered the 5th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (40.0) vs. running backs this year. The Ravens pass defense has shown weak efficiency against running backs this year, conceding 6.88 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-most in the NFL.

Josh Jacobs logo

Josh Jacobs

Prop: 9.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 15.12
Prop:
9.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
15.12

Opposing QBs have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the league. Josh Jacobs has been a key part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 10.7% this year, which ranks him in the 88th percentile among RBs. With a terrific 19.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (87th percentile) this year, Josh Jacobs has been as one of the leading pass-game RBs in the league. The Ravens defense has surrendered the 5th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (40.0) vs. running backs this year. The Ravens pass defense has shown weak efficiency against running backs this year, conceding 6.88 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-most in the NFL.

All Matchup props

AJ Barner Receiving Yards Props • Seattle

Seattle SEA @ Carolina CAR
AJ Barner
A. Barner
tight end TE • Seattle
Prop
29.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
39.5
Best Odds

The Panthers pass defense has conceded the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (79.6%) to tight ends this year (79.6%). The Carolina Panthers pass defense has displayed bad efficiency versus TEs this year, yielding 8.86 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in football.

AJ Barner logo

AJ Barner

Prop: 29.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 39.5
Prop:
29.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
39.5

The Panthers pass defense has conceded the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (79.6%) to tight ends this year (79.6%). The Carolina Panthers pass defense has displayed bad efficiency versus TEs this year, yielding 8.86 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in football.

All Matchup props

Tre Tucker Receiving Yards Props • Las Vegas

New York NYG @ Las Vegas LV
Tre Tucker
T. Tucker
wide receiver WR • Las Vegas
Prop
46.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
58.35
Best Odds

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 59.6% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. This year, the poor New York Giants defense has surrendered a colossal 154.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts: the 9th-most in the NFL. This year, the anemic Giants defense has been torched for the 5th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing WRs: a colossal 8.76 yards.

Tre Tucker logo

Tre Tucker

Prop: 46.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 58.35
Prop:
46.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
58.35

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 59.6% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. This year, the poor New York Giants defense has surrendered a colossal 154.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts: the 9th-most in the NFL. This year, the anemic Giants defense has been torched for the 5th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing WRs: a colossal 8.76 yards.

All Matchup props

Rico Dowdle Rushing Yards Props • Carolina

Seattle SEA @ Carolina CAR
Rico Dowdle
R. Dowdle
running back RB • Carolina
Prop
46.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
58.46
Best Odds

At the present time, the 7th-most run-focused offense in the league (42.2% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Panthers. In this week's game, Rico Dowdle is anticipated by our trusted projection set to finish in the 78th percentile among RBs with 14.6 carries. Out of all running backs, Rico Dowdle grades out in the 87th percentile for rush attempts this year, taking on 55.2% of the workload in his offense's run game. With an impressive record of 58.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (86th percentile), Rico Dowdle places among the best pure rushers in the league this year.

Rico Dowdle logo

Rico Dowdle

Prop: 46.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 58.46
Prop:
46.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
58.46

At the present time, the 7th-most run-focused offense in the league (42.2% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Panthers. In this week's game, Rico Dowdle is anticipated by our trusted projection set to finish in the 78th percentile among RBs with 14.6 carries. Out of all running backs, Rico Dowdle grades out in the 87th percentile for rush attempts this year, taking on 55.2% of the workload in his offense's run game. With an impressive record of 58.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (86th percentile), Rico Dowdle places among the best pure rushers in the league this year.

All Matchup props

Bryce Young Rushing Yards Props • Carolina

Seattle SEA @ Carolina CAR
Bryce Young
B. Young
quarterback QB • Carolina
Prop
14.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
20.9
Best Odds

At the present time, the 7th-most run-focused offense in the league (42.2% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Panthers. Bryce Young's ground effectiveness (6.37 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (79th percentile among QBs).

Bryce Young logo

Bryce Young

Prop: 14.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 20.9
Prop:
14.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
20.9

At the present time, the 7th-most run-focused offense in the league (42.2% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Panthers. Bryce Young's ground effectiveness (6.37 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (79th percentile among QBs).

All Matchup props

Kareem Hunt Receiving Yards Props • Kansas City

Denver DEN @ Kansas City KC
Kareem Hunt
K. Hunt
running back RB • Kansas City
Prop
4.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
8.97
Best Odds
Prop
4.5 Receiving Yards
Projection
8.97
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The Kansas City Chiefs may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to start backup QB Chris Oladokun. At a -13-point disadvantage, the Chiefs are big underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical approach. The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 135.8 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week. The Broncos defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (37.6 per game) this year.

Kareem Hunt logo

Kareem Hunt

Prop: 4.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 8.97
Prop:
4.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
8.97

The Kansas City Chiefs may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to start backup QB Chris Oladokun. At a -13-point disadvantage, the Chiefs are big underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical approach. The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 135.8 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week. The Broncos defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (37.6 per game) this year.

All Matchup props

Kyren Williams Receiving Yards Props • L.A. Rams

Los Angeles LA @ Atlanta ATL
Kyren Williams
K. Williams
running back RB • L.A. Rams
Prop
9.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
14.82
Best Odds
Prop
9.5 Receiving Yards
Projection
14.82
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The leading projections forecast the Rams as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to see 133.2 offensive plays run: the highest number out of all the games this week. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. Kyren Williams's 69.4% snap rate this season illustrates a noteable reduction in his offensive usage over last season's 86.6% rate. As it relates to air yards, Kyren Williams ranks in the towering 98th percentile among running backs this year, accruing a massive 7.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more notable than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).

Kyren Williams logo

Kyren Williams

Prop: 9.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 14.82
Prop:
9.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
14.82

The leading projections forecast the Rams as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to see 133.2 offensive plays run: the highest number out of all the games this week. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. Kyren Williams's 69.4% snap rate this season illustrates a noteable reduction in his offensive usage over last season's 86.6% rate. As it relates to air yards, Kyren Williams ranks in the towering 98th percentile among running backs this year, accruing a massive 7.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more notable than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).

All Matchup props

Chris Oladokun Rushing Yards Props • Kansas City

Denver DEN @ Kansas City KC
Chris Oladokun
C. Oladokun
quarterback QB • Kansas City
Prop
17.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
24.3
Best Odds

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 133.0 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week. The 9th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a colossal 59.3 per game on average). The Denver defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-worst collection of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

Chris Oladokun logo

Chris Oladokun

Prop: 17.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 24.3
Prop:
17.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
24.3

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 133.0 offensive plays run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week. The 9th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a colossal 59.3 per game on average). The Denver defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-worst collection of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

All Matchup props

Omarion Hampton Rushing Yards Props • L.A. Chargers

Houston HOU @ Los Angeles LAC
Omarion Hampton
O. Hampton
running back RB • L.A. Chargers
Prop
58.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
70.13
Best Odds

Ja'Tavion Sanders Receiving Yards Props • Carolina

Seattle SEA @ Carolina CAR
Ja'Tavion Sanders
J. Sanders
tight end TE • Carolina
Prop
13.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
19.51
Best Odds

The Panthers are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script. Opposing offenses have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game versus the Seahawks defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL. In regards to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Panthers profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year. This year, the anemic Seattle Seahawks defense has surrendered a colossal 64.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 8th-worst in the NFL.

Ja'Tavion Sanders logo

Ja'Tavion Sanders

Prop: 13.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 19.51
Prop:
13.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
19.51

The Panthers are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script. Opposing offenses have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game versus the Seahawks defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL. In regards to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Panthers profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year. This year, the anemic Seattle Seahawks defense has surrendered a colossal 64.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 8th-worst in the NFL.

All Matchup props

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

All NFL Player Props

Click the game below to see that game's props.

December 25

Denver DENat Kansas City KC 20:15 ET

December 27

Houston HOUat L.A. Chargers LAC 16:30 ET Baltimore BALat Green Bay GB 20:00 ET

December 28

Tampa Bay TBat Miami MIA 13:00 ET New England NEat N.Y. Jets NYJ 13:00 ET Pittsburgh PITat Cleveland CLE 13:00 ET Arizona ARIat Cincinnati CIN 13:00 ET New Orleans NOat Tennessee TEN 13:00 ET Jacksonville JACat Indianapolis IND 13:00 ET Seattle SEAat Carolina CAR 13:00 ET N.Y. Giants NYGat Las Vegas LV 16:05 ET Philadelphia PHIat Buffalo BUF 16:25 ET Chicago CHIat San Francisco SF 20:20 ET

December 29

L.A. Rams LAat Atlanta ATL 20:15 ET
Visit all available NFL odds View now
Visit NFL Scores + Matchups View now
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo