NFL Player Props and Best Projections

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Matchups
Projections
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Kirk Cousins Passing Yards Props • Atlanta

Los Angeles LA @ Atlanta ATL
Kirk Cousins
K. Cousins
quarterback QB • Atlanta
Prop
223.5
Passing Yards
Projection
277.71
Best Odds

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a giant -8-point underdog in this week's game. The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons as the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (37.7 per game) this year.

Kirk Cousins logo

Kirk Cousins

Prop: 223.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 277.71
Prop:
223.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
277.71

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a giant -8-point underdog in this week's game. The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons as the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (37.7 per game) this year.

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Michael Mayer Receiving Yards Props • Las Vegas

New York NYG @ Las Vegas LV
Michael Mayer
M. Mayer
tight end TE • Las Vegas
Prop
30.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
49.98
Best Odds

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 59.8% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. The model projects Michael Mayer to garner 7.1 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to TEs. The leading projections forecast Michael Mayer to be a much bigger part of his team's air attack in this contest (21.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (10.2% in games he has played).

Michael Mayer logo

Michael Mayer

Prop: 30.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 49.98
Prop:
30.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
49.98

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 59.8% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. The model projects Michael Mayer to garner 7.1 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to TEs. The leading projections forecast Michael Mayer to be a much bigger part of his team's air attack in this contest (21.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (10.2% in games he has played).

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Philip Rivers Passing Yards Props • Indianapolis

Jacksonville JAC @ Indianapolis IND
Philip Rivers
P. Rivers
quarterback QB • Indianapolis
Prop
204.5
Passing Yards
Projection
249.27
Best Odds

The Indianapolis Colts may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more rushes) given that they be starting backup quarterback Philip Rivers. The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The model projects the Colts to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.7% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.3 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: most in the NFL.

Philip Rivers logo

Philip Rivers

Prop: 204.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 249.27
Prop:
204.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
249.27

The Indianapolis Colts may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more rushes) given that they be starting backup quarterback Philip Rivers. The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The model projects the Colts to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.7% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.3 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: most in the NFL.

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Joe Burrow Passing Yards Props • Cincinnati

Arizona ARI @ Cincinnati CIN
Joe Burrow
J. Burrow
quarterback QB • Cincinnati
Prop
262.5
Passing Yards
Projection
307.07
Best Odds

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 61.4% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The model projects Joe Burrow to throw 39.1 passes this week, on balance: the 2nd-most out of all QBs. The Arizona Cardinals safeties grade out as the 5th-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

Joe Burrow logo

Joe Burrow

Prop: 262.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 307.07
Prop:
262.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
307.07

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 61.4% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The model projects Joe Burrow to throw 39.1 passes this week, on balance: the 2nd-most out of all QBs. The Arizona Cardinals safeties grade out as the 5th-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

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Cam Ward Rushing Yards Props • Tennessee

New Orleans NO @ Tennessee TEN
Cam Ward
C. Ward
quarterback QB • Tennessee
Prop
6.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
15.09
Best Odds
Prop
6.5 Rushing Yards
Projection
15.09
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Our trusted projections expect the Titans to be the 10th-most run-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.3% run rate. The model projects this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) usually cause lessened passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher ground volume.

Cam Ward logo

Cam Ward

Prop: 6.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 15.09
Prop:
6.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
15.09

Our trusted projections expect the Titans to be the 10th-most run-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.3% run rate. The model projects this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) usually cause lessened passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher ground volume.

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Zay Flowers Receiving Yards Props • Baltimore

Baltimore BAL @ Green Bay GB
Zay Flowers
Z. Flowers
wide receiver WR • Baltimore
Prop
46.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
65.39
Best Odds

The Ravens may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more rushes) because they be rolling out backup QB Tyler Huntley. This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Ravens, who are -4.5-point underdogs. Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense this year: 8th-most in football. Zay Flowers has run a route on 94.9% of his offense's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers. This week, Zay Flowers is predicted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 94th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 8.6 targets.

Zay Flowers logo

Zay Flowers

Prop: 46.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 65.39
Prop:
46.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
65.39

The Ravens may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more rushes) because they be rolling out backup QB Tyler Huntley. This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Ravens, who are -4.5-point underdogs. Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense this year: 8th-most in football. Zay Flowers has run a route on 94.9% of his offense's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers. This week, Zay Flowers is predicted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 94th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 8.6 targets.

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Joe Burrow Rushing Yards Props • Cincinnati

Arizona ARI @ Cincinnati CIN
Joe Burrow
J. Burrow
quarterback QB • Cincinnati
Prop
3.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
10.29
Best Odds

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Bengals, who are a huge favorite by 7.5 points. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. This year, the stout Arizona Cardinals run defense has surrendered a feeble 5.22 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 29th-lowest rate in football. The Arizona defensive ends project as the 4th-worst collection of DEs in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Joe Burrow logo

Joe Burrow

Prop: 3.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 10.29
Prop:
3.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
10.29

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Bengals, who are a huge favorite by 7.5 points. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. This year, the stout Arizona Cardinals run defense has surrendered a feeble 5.22 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 29th-lowest rate in football. The Arizona defensive ends project as the 4th-worst collection of DEs in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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C.J. Stroud Rushing Yards Props • Houston

Houston HOU @ Los Angeles LAC
C.J. Stroud
C. Stroud
quarterback QB • Houston
Prop
10.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
20.17
Best Odds

With respect to a defense's effect on tempo, at 27.32 seconds per play, our trusted projections expect the Texans as the 2nd-fastest in the league (adjusted for context) right now.

C.J. Stroud logo

C.J. Stroud

Prop: 10.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 20.17
Prop:
10.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
20.17

With respect to a defense's effect on tempo, at 27.32 seconds per play, our trusted projections expect the Texans as the 2nd-fastest in the league (adjusted for context) right now.

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Chig Okonkwo Receiving Yards Props • Tennessee

New Orleans NO @ Tennessee TEN
Chig Okonkwo
C. Okonkwo
tight end TE • Tennessee
Prop
21.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
33.73
Best Odds

The model projects this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. In this week's contest, Chig Okonkwo is anticipated by the model to secure a spot in the 80th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.2 targets. With an elite 14.5% Target% (79th percentile) this year, Chig Okonkwo places among the tight ends with the highest volume in the league. Chig Okonkwo ranks in the 75th percentile when it comes to tight ends this year with a remarkable 8.8% of his team's air yards accumulated. The New Orleans Saints linebackers grade out as the 8th-worst unit in the NFL this year with their pass rush.

Chig Okonkwo logo

Chig Okonkwo

Prop: 21.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 33.73
Prop:
21.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
33.73

The model projects this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. In this week's contest, Chig Okonkwo is anticipated by the model to secure a spot in the 80th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.2 targets. With an elite 14.5% Target% (79th percentile) this year, Chig Okonkwo places among the tight ends with the highest volume in the league. Chig Okonkwo ranks in the 75th percentile when it comes to tight ends this year with a remarkable 8.8% of his team's air yards accumulated. The New Orleans Saints linebackers grade out as the 8th-worst unit in the NFL this year with their pass rush.

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Geno Smith Passing Yards Props • Las Vegas

New York NYG @ Las Vegas LV
Geno Smith
G. Smith
quarterback QB • Las Vegas
Prop
200.5
Passing Yards
Projection
248.23
Best Odds

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 59.8% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Giants pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency this year, giving up 7.88 adjusted yards-per-target: the 8th-most in the NFL.

Geno Smith logo

Geno Smith

Prop: 200.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 248.23
Prop:
200.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
248.23

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 59.8% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Giants pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency this year, giving up 7.88 adjusted yards-per-target: the 8th-most in the NFL.

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Keenan Allen Receiving Yards Props • L.A. Chargers

Houston HOU @ Los Angeles LAC
Keenan Allen
K. Allen
wide receiver WR • L.A. Chargers
Prop
33.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
48.08
Best Odds

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.0% pass rate. The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. In this contest, Keenan Allen is projected by the projections to place in the 86th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.7 targets. Keenan Allen checks in as one of the leading pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a stellar 47.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 81st percentile. Keenan Allen's 70.6% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a meaningful progression in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 61.0% figure.

Keenan Allen logo

Keenan Allen

Prop: 33.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 48.08
Prop:
33.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
48.08

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.0% pass rate. The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. In this contest, Keenan Allen is projected by the projections to place in the 86th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.7 targets. Keenan Allen checks in as one of the leading pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a stellar 47.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 81st percentile. Keenan Allen's 70.6% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a meaningful progression in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 61.0% figure.

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Drake Maye Rushing Yards Props • New England

New England NE @ New York NYJ
Drake Maye
D. Maye
quarterback QB • New England
Prop
19.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
30.61
Best Odds
Prop
19.5 Rushing Yards
Projection
30.61
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The Patriots are a massive 13.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Patriots to run on 47.4% of their plays: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week. This year, the weak Jets run defense has yielded a colossal 136.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 6th-most in football. As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, New York's safety corps has been lousy this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in the league. in the league.

Drake Maye logo

Drake Maye

Prop: 19.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 30.61
Prop:
19.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
30.61

The Patriots are a massive 13.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Patriots to run on 47.4% of their plays: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week. This year, the weak Jets run defense has yielded a colossal 136.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 6th-most in football. As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, New York's safety corps has been lousy this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in the league. in the league.

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Drake London Receiving Yards Props • Atlanta

Los Angeles LA @ Atlanta ATL
Drake London
D. London
wide receiver WR • Atlanta
Prop
64.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
94.64
Best Odds

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a giant -8-point underdog in this week's game. The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons as the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (37.7 per game) this year.

Drake London logo

Drake London

Prop: 64.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 94.64
Prop:
64.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
94.64

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a giant -8-point underdog in this week's game. The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons as the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (37.7 per game) this year.

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Ashton Jeanty Receiving Yards Props • Las Vegas

New York NYG @ Las Vegas LV
Ashton Jeanty
A. Jeanty
running back RB • Las Vegas
Prop
26.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
38.61
Best Odds

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 59.8% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. This year, the deficient Giants defense has been gouged for a massive 35.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the 10th-most in the league. The New York Giants pass defense has given up the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (86.9%) versus running backs this year (86.9%).

Ashton Jeanty logo

Ashton Jeanty

Prop: 26.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 38.61
Prop:
26.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
38.61

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 59.8% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. This year, the deficient Giants defense has been gouged for a massive 35.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the 10th-most in the league. The New York Giants pass defense has given up the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (86.9%) versus running backs this year (86.9%).

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Geno Smith Rushing Yards Props • Las Vegas

New York NYG @ Las Vegas LV
Geno Smith
G. Smith
quarterback QB • Las Vegas
Prop
8.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
16.02
Best Odds
Prop
8.5 Rushing Yards
Projection
16.02
Best Odds
Projection Rating

With an exceptional tally of 2.65 yards-after-contact (92nd percentile), Geno Smith rates among the best running QBs in the NFL this year. The Giants defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering 5.70 adjusted yards-per-carry. As it relates to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, New York's collection of DEs has been lousy this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Geno Smith logo

Geno Smith

Prop: 8.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 16.02
Prop:
8.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
16.02

With an exceptional tally of 2.65 yards-after-contact (92nd percentile), Geno Smith rates among the best running QBs in the NFL this year. The Giants defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering 5.70 adjusted yards-per-carry. As it relates to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, New York's collection of DEs has been lousy this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

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Brady Cook Rushing Yards Props • N.Y. Jets

New England NE @ New York NYJ
Brady Cook
B. Cook
quarterback QB • N.Y. Jets
Prop
9.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
17.32
Best Odds
Prop
9.5 Rushing Yards
Projection
17.32
Best Odds
Projection Rating

At the moment, the 2nd-most run-oriented offense in the league (45.6% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Jets.

Brady Cook logo

Brady Cook

Prop: 9.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 17.32
Prop:
9.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
17.32

At the moment, the 2nd-most run-oriented offense in the league (45.6% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Jets.

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Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Props • L.A. Rams

Los Angeles LA @ Atlanta ATL
Matthew Stafford
M. Stafford
quarterback QB • L.A. Rams
Prop
268.5
Passing Yards
Projection
311.67
Best Odds

The leading projections forecast the Rams as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect the Rams to run the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. This week, Matthew Stafford is forecasted by the projections to average the most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.2. With an outstanding tally of 254.0 adjusted passing yards per game (95th percentile), Matthew Stafford places as one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL this year.

Matthew Stafford logo

Matthew Stafford

Prop: 268.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 311.67
Prop:
268.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
311.67

The leading projections forecast the Rams as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect the Rams to run the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. This week, Matthew Stafford is forecasted by the projections to average the most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.2. With an outstanding tally of 254.0 adjusted passing yards per game (95th percentile), Matthew Stafford places as one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL this year.

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Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards Props • Cincinnati

Arizona ARI @ Cincinnati CIN
Mike Gesicki
M. Gesicki
tight end TE • Cincinnati
Prop
23.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
36.62
Best Odds

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 61.4% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. In this week's contest, Mike Gesicki is expected by the projection model to place in the 78th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.9 targets. Mike Gesicki has totaled a staggering 36.0 air yards per game this year: 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends. This year, the porous Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded a staggering 65.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 5th-worst in the NFL.

Mike Gesicki logo

Mike Gesicki

Prop: 23.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 36.62
Prop:
23.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
36.62

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 61.4% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. In this week's contest, Mike Gesicki is expected by the projection model to place in the 78th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.9 targets. Mike Gesicki has totaled a staggering 36.0 air yards per game this year: 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends. This year, the porous Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded a staggering 65.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 5th-worst in the NFL.

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Tyler Huntley Passing Yards Props • Baltimore

Baltimore BAL @ Green Bay GB
Tyler Huntley
T. Huntley
quarterback QB • Baltimore
Prop
157.5
Passing Yards
Projection
183.92
Best Odds

The Ravens may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more rushes) because they be rolling out backup QB Tyler Huntley. This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Ravens, who are -4.5-point underdogs. Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense this year: 8th-most in football.

Tyler Huntley logo

Tyler Huntley

Prop: 157.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 183.92
Prop:
157.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
183.92

The Ravens may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more rushes) because they be rolling out backup QB Tyler Huntley. This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Ravens, who are -4.5-point underdogs. Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense this year: 8th-most in football.

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Colby Parkinson Receiving Yards Props • L.A. Rams

Los Angeles LA @ Atlanta ATL
Colby Parkinson
C. Parkinson
tight end TE • L.A. Rams
Prop
34.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
47.23
Best Odds
Prop
34.5 Receiving Yards
Projection
47.23
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The leading projections forecast the Rams as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect the Rams to run the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. This week, Colby Parkinson is predicted by the model to place in the 92nd percentile among tight ends with 6.8 targets. While Colby Parkinson has garnered 9.9% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Los Angeles's passing offense in this week's game at 18.0%.

Colby Parkinson logo

Colby Parkinson

Prop: 34.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 47.23
Prop:
34.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
47.23

The leading projections forecast the Rams as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect the Rams to run the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. This week, Colby Parkinson is predicted by the model to place in the 92nd percentile among tight ends with 6.8 targets. While Colby Parkinson has garnered 9.9% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Los Angeles's passing offense in this week's game at 18.0%.

All Matchup props

Darren Waller Receiving Yards Props • Miami

Tampa Bay TB @ Miami MIA
Darren Waller
D. Waller
tight end TE • Miami
Prop
24.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
35.43
Best Odds
Prop
24.5 Receiving Yards
Projection
35.43
Best Odds
Projection Rating

A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -6-point underdog this week. This week, Darren Waller is expected by the projections to find himself in the 77th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.8 targets. As it relates to air yards, Darren Waller ranks in the towering 95th percentile among TEs this year, totaling a whopping 46.0 per game. Darren Waller ranks in the 92nd percentile among TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a massive 39.2 figure this year. This year, the weak Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been gouged for a massive 78.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 7th-biggest rate in football.

Darren Waller logo

Darren Waller

Prop: 24.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 35.43
Prop:
24.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
35.43

A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -6-point underdog this week. This week, Darren Waller is expected by the projections to find himself in the 77th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.8 targets. As it relates to air yards, Darren Waller ranks in the towering 95th percentile among TEs this year, totaling a whopping 46.0 per game. Darren Waller ranks in the 92nd percentile among TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a massive 39.2 figure this year. This year, the weak Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been gouged for a massive 78.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 7th-biggest rate in football.

All Matchup props

Tyler Shough Passing Yards Props • New Orleans

New Orleans NO @ Tennessee TEN
Tyler Shough
T. Shough
quarterback QB • New Orleans
Prop
222.5
Passing Yards
Projection
192.25
Best Odds

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints as the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

Tyler Shough logo

Tyler Shough

Prop: 222.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 192.25
Prop:
222.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
192.25

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints as the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

All Matchup props

Theo Johnson Receiving Yards Props • N.Y. Giants

New York NYG @ Las Vegas LV
Theo Johnson
T. Johnson
tight end TE • N.Y. Giants
Prop
30.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
43.39
Best Odds

The Giants have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.5 plays per game. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. The Raiders safeties project as the 3rd-worst safety corps in football this year in pass coverage.

Theo Johnson logo

Theo Johnson

Prop: 30.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 43.39
Prop:
30.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
43.39

The Giants have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.5 plays per game. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. The Raiders safeties project as the 3rd-worst safety corps in football this year in pass coverage.

All Matchup props

Brock Purdy Rushing Yards Props • San Francisco

Chicago CHI @ San Francisco SF
Brock Purdy
B. Purdy
quarterback QB • San Francisco
Prop
11.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
20.05
Best Odds

The 49ers are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a running game script. This year, the fierce Chicago Bears run defense has allowed a feeble 5.04 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 28th-best rate in the league. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Chicago's unit has been terrible this year, ranking as the 5th-worst in football. in football.

Brock Purdy logo

Brock Purdy

Prop: 11.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 20.05
Prop:
11.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
20.05

The 49ers are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a running game script. This year, the fierce Chicago Bears run defense has allowed a feeble 5.04 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 28th-best rate in the league. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Chicago's unit has been terrible this year, ranking as the 5th-worst in football. in football.

All Matchup props

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Props • Buffalo

Philadelphia PHI @ Buffalo BUF
Josh Allen
J. Allen
quarterback QB • Buffalo
Prop
29.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
43.07
Best Odds

The predictive model expects the Bills to be the 3rd-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 47.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The projections expect Josh Allen to accrue 8.0 carries this week, on balance: the most out of all quarterbacks. The predictive model expects Josh Allen to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack in this week's contest (27.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (20.8% in games he has played). With a remarkable total of 33.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (97th percentile), Josh Allen ranks as one of the leading rushing QBs in the league this year. Josh Allen's 6.43 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year illustrates a noteable gain in his rushing skills over last year's 5.65 rate.

Josh Allen logo

Josh Allen

Prop: 29.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 43.07
Prop:
29.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
43.07

The predictive model expects the Bills to be the 3rd-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 47.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The projections expect Josh Allen to accrue 8.0 carries this week, on balance: the most out of all quarterbacks. The predictive model expects Josh Allen to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack in this week's contest (27.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (20.8% in games he has played). With a remarkable total of 33.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (97th percentile), Josh Allen ranks as one of the leading rushing QBs in the league this year. Josh Allen's 6.43 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year illustrates a noteable gain in his rushing skills over last year's 5.65 rate.

All Matchup props

Jacoby Brissett Rushing Yards Props • Arizona

Arizona ARI @ Cincinnati CIN
Jacoby Brissett
J. Brissett
quarterback QB • Arizona
Prop
9.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
18.43
Best Odds

The projections expect the Cardinals offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.67 seconds per snap. Jacoby Brissett has been much more involved in his offense's running game this year (13.2% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (5.6%). Opposing offenses have rushed for the most adjusted yards in the league (156 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year. The Cincinnati Bengals safeties grade out as the 32nd-worst collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

Jacoby Brissett logo

Jacoby Brissett

Prop: 9.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 18.43
Prop:
9.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
18.43

The projections expect the Cardinals offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.67 seconds per snap. Jacoby Brissett has been much more involved in his offense's running game this year (13.2% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (5.6%). Opposing offenses have rushed for the most adjusted yards in the league (156 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year. The Cincinnati Bengals safeties grade out as the 32nd-worst collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

All Matchup props

Brock Bowers Receiving Yards Props • Las Vegas

New York NYG @ Las Vegas LV
Brock Bowers
B. Bowers
tight end TE • Las Vegas
Prop
53.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
68.1
Best Odds
Prop
53.5 Receiving Yards
Projection
68.1
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 58.7% of their chances: the 9th-greatest rate among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Brock Bowers logo

Brock Bowers

Prop: 53.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 68.1
Prop:
53.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
68.1

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 58.7% of their chances: the 9th-greatest rate among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

All Matchup props

Jaxson Dart Passing Yards Props • N.Y. Giants

New York NYG @ Las Vegas LV
Jaxson Dart
J. Dart
quarterback QB • N.Y. Giants
Prop
182.5
Passing Yards
Projection
209.65
Best Odds

The Giants have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.5 plays per game. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-highest rate in the NFL versus the Raiders defense this year (73.0% Adjusted Completion%). The Raiders safeties project as the 3rd-worst safety corps in football this year in pass coverage.

Jaxson Dart logo

Jaxson Dart

Prop: 182.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 209.65
Prop:
182.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
209.65

The Giants have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.5 plays per game. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-highest rate in the NFL versus the Raiders defense this year (73.0% Adjusted Completion%). The Raiders safeties project as the 3rd-worst safety corps in football this year in pass coverage.

All Matchup props

Oronde Gadsden Receiving Yards Props • L.A. Chargers

Houston HOU @ Los Angeles LAC
Oronde Gadsden
O. Gadsden
tight end TE • L.A. Chargers
Prop
28.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
39.06
Best Odds

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.2% pass rate. The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Oronde Gadsden logo

Oronde Gadsden

Prop: 28.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 39.06
Prop:
28.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
39.06

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.2% pass rate. The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

All Matchup props

Chase Brown Receiving Yards Props • Cincinnati

Arizona ARI @ Cincinnati CIN
Chase Brown
C. Brown
running back RB • Cincinnati
Prop
20.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
30.74
Best Odds

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 61.4% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. In this week's contest, Chase Brown is projected by the model to position himself in the 93rd percentile among RBs with 5.5 targets. As it relates to air yards, Chase Brown ranks in the towering 94th percentile among running backs this year, accruing a striking 4.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards). Chase Brown's 23.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 17.9.

Chase Brown logo

Chase Brown

Prop: 20.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 30.74
Prop:
20.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
30.74

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 61.4% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 2nd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. In this week's contest, Chase Brown is projected by the model to position himself in the 93rd percentile among RBs with 5.5 targets. As it relates to air yards, Chase Brown ranks in the towering 94th percentile among running backs this year, accruing a striking 4.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards). Chase Brown's 23.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 17.9.

All Matchup props

Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards Props • Indianapolis

Jacksonville JAC @ Indianapolis IND
Jonathan Taylor
J. Taylor
running back RB • Indianapolis
Prop
73.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
91.09
Best Odds

The model projects Jonathan Taylor to accrue 21.2 rush attempts in this game, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among RBs. Among all RBs, Jonathan Taylor ranks in the 100th percentile for carries this year, comprising 83.4% of the workload in his team's rushing attack. With a remarkable total of 5.32 adjusted yards per carry (93rd percentile), Jonathan Taylor ranks among the top running backs in football this year.

Jonathan Taylor logo

Jonathan Taylor

Prop: 73.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 91.09
Prop:
73.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
91.09

The model projects Jonathan Taylor to accrue 21.2 rush attempts in this game, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among RBs. Among all RBs, Jonathan Taylor ranks in the 100th percentile for carries this year, comprising 83.4% of the workload in his team's rushing attack. With a remarkable total of 5.32 adjusted yards per carry (93rd percentile), Jonathan Taylor ranks among the top running backs in football this year.

All Matchup props

Drake Maye Passing Yards Props • New England

New England NE @ New York NYJ
Drake Maye
D. Maye
quarterback QB • New England
Prop
255.5
Passing Yards
Projection
226.91
Best Odds

The Patriots are a massive 13.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Patriots to pass on 52.6% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see only 127.0 offensive plays run: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.

Drake Maye logo

Drake Maye

Prop: 255.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 226.91
Prop:
255.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
226.91

The Patriots are a massive 13.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Patriots to pass on 52.6% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see only 127.0 offensive plays run: the 5th-lowest number out of all the games this week.

All Matchup props

Omarion Hampton Receiving Yards Props • L.A. Chargers

Houston HOU @ Los Angeles LAC
Omarion Hampton
O. Hampton
running back RB • L.A. Chargers
Prop
10.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
17.92
Best Odds

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.2% pass rate. The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Omarion Hampton logo

Omarion Hampton

Prop: 10.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 17.92
Prop:
10.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
17.92

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.2% pass rate. The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

All Matchup props

Ladd McConkey Receiving Yards Props • L.A. Chargers

Houston HOU @ Los Angeles LAC
Ladd McConkey
L. McConkey
wide receiver WR • L.A. Chargers
Prop
40.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
53.62
Best Odds

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.2% pass rate. The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Ladd McConkey logo

Ladd McConkey

Prop: 40.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 53.62
Prop:
40.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
53.62

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.2% pass rate. The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

All Matchup props

Jeremy Ruckert Receiving Yards Props • N.Y. Jets

New England NE @ New York NYJ
Jeremy Ruckert
J. Ruckert
tight end TE • N.Y. Jets
Prop
12.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
19.45
Best Odds
Prop
12.5 Receiving Yards
Projection
19.45
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The New York Jets may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Brady Cook. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan. Jeremy Ruckert's 85.1% Adjusted Catch% this season illustrates a significant gain in his receiving talent over last season's 66.4% rate. Jeremy Ruckert's pass-catching effectiveness has gotten a boost this season, notching 6.69 adjusted yards-per-target vs just 3.86 figure last season. The New England Patriots defense has yielded the 9th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (61.0) to tight ends this year.

Jeremy Ruckert logo

Jeremy Ruckert

Prop: 12.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 19.45
Prop:
12.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
19.45

The New York Jets may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Brady Cook. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan. Jeremy Ruckert's 85.1% Adjusted Catch% this season illustrates a significant gain in his receiving talent over last season's 66.4% rate. Jeremy Ruckert's pass-catching effectiveness has gotten a boost this season, notching 6.69 adjusted yards-per-target vs just 3.86 figure last season. The New England Patriots defense has yielded the 9th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (61.0) to tight ends this year.

All Matchup props

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Props • Philadelphia

Philadelphia PHI @ Buffalo BUF
Saquon Barkley
S. Barkley
running back RB • Philadelphia
Prop
11.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
18.11
Best Odds

Saquon Barkley has run a route on 59.3% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs. In this game, Saquon Barkley is anticipated by the projections to slot into the 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.5 targets. Saquon Barkley has posted a staggering 2.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile among RBs. (This may not seem like a lot, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage). The Philadelphia offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing attack statistics across the board. Saquon Barkley rates as one of the best pass-game running backs this year, averaging a remarkable 16.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.

Saquon Barkley logo

Saquon Barkley

Prop: 11.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 18.11
Prop:
11.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
18.11

Saquon Barkley has run a route on 59.3% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs. In this game, Saquon Barkley is anticipated by the projections to slot into the 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.5 targets. Saquon Barkley has posted a staggering 2.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile among RBs. (This may not seem like a lot, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage). The Philadelphia offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing attack statistics across the board. Saquon Barkley rates as one of the best pass-game running backs this year, averaging a remarkable 16.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.

All Matchup props

Ja'Tavion Sanders Receiving Yards Props • Carolina

Seattle SEA @ Carolina CAR
Ja'Tavion Sanders
J. Sanders
tight end TE • Carolina
Prop
13.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
20.24
Best Odds

The Panthers are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script. Opposing offenses have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game versus the Seahawks defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL. In regards to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Panthers profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year. This year, the anemic Seattle Seahawks defense has surrendered a colossal 64.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 8th-worst in the NFL.

Ja'Tavion Sanders logo

Ja'Tavion Sanders

Prop: 13.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 20.24
Prop:
13.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
20.24

The Panthers are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script. Opposing offenses have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game versus the Seahawks defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL. In regards to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Panthers profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year. This year, the anemic Seattle Seahawks defense has surrendered a colossal 64.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 8th-worst in the NFL.

All Matchup props

Mark Andrews Receiving Yards Props • Baltimore

Baltimore BAL @ Green Bay GB
Mark Andrews
M. Andrews
tight end TE • Baltimore
Prop
22.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
26.7
Best Odds

The Ravens may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more rushes) because they be rolling out backup QB Tyler Huntley. This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Ravens, who are -4.5-point underdogs. Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense this year: 8th-most in football. With an extraordinary 16.6% Target% (84th percentile) this year, Mark Andrews ranks as one of the TEs with the highest volume in football.

Mark Andrews logo

Mark Andrews

Prop: 22.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 26.7
Prop:
22.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
26.7

The Ravens may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more rushes) because they be rolling out backup QB Tyler Huntley. This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Ravens, who are -4.5-point underdogs. Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense this year: 8th-most in football. With an extraordinary 16.6% Target% (84th percentile) this year, Mark Andrews ranks as one of the TEs with the highest volume in football.

All Matchup props

Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards Props • Philadelphia

Philadelphia PHI @ Buffalo BUF
Saquon Barkley
S. Barkley
running back RB • Philadelphia
Prop
83.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
70.47
Best Odds

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Eagles are predicted by the model to run just 62.7 offensive plays in this game: the 5th-lowest number among all teams this week. The 8th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Eagles this year (only 54.9 per game on average). Saquon Barkley has run for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (63.0) this season than he did last season (118.0). Saquon Barkley's rushing efficiency has diminished this year, compiling a measly 3.86 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 5.48 rate last year.

Saquon Barkley logo

Saquon Barkley

Prop: 83.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 70.47
Prop:
83.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
70.47

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Eagles are predicted by the model to run just 62.7 offensive plays in this game: the 5th-lowest number among all teams this week. The 8th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Eagles this year (only 54.9 per game on average). Saquon Barkley has run for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (63.0) this season than he did last season (118.0). Saquon Barkley's rushing efficiency has diminished this year, compiling a measly 3.86 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 5.48 rate last year.

All Matchup props

Michael Pittman Jr. Receiving Yards Props • Indianapolis

Jacksonville JAC @ Indianapolis IND
Michael Pittman Jr.
M. Pittman Jr.
wide receiver WR • Indianapolis
Prop
43.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
54.97
Best Odds

The Indianapolis Colts may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more rushes) given that they be starting backup quarterback Philip Rivers. The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The model projects the Colts to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.7% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.3 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: most in the NFL.

Michael Pittman Jr. logo

Michael Pittman Jr.

Prop: 43.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 54.97
Prop:
43.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
54.97

The Indianapolis Colts may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more rushes) given that they be starting backup quarterback Philip Rivers. The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The model projects the Colts to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.7% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.3 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: most in the NFL.

All Matchup props

AJ Barner Receiving Yards Props • Seattle

Seattle SEA @ Carolina CAR
AJ Barner
A. Barner
tight end TE • Seattle
Prop
31.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
40.85
Best Odds

The Panthers pass defense has conceded the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (79.6%) to tight ends this year (79.6%). The Carolina Panthers pass defense has displayed bad efficiency versus TEs this year, yielding 8.86 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-most in football.

AJ Barner logo

AJ Barner

Prop: 31.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 40.85
Prop:
31.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
40.85

The Panthers pass defense has conceded the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (79.6%) to tight ends this year (79.6%). The Carolina Panthers pass defense has displayed bad efficiency versus TEs this year, yielding 8.86 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-most in football.

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Rico Dowdle Rushing Yards Props • Carolina

Seattle SEA @ Carolina CAR
Rico Dowdle
R. Dowdle
running back RB • Carolina
Prop
46.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
57.62
Best Odds

At the present time, the 7th-most run-focused offense in the league (42.1% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Panthers. In this week's game, Rico Dowdle is anticipated by our trusted projection set to finish in the 77th percentile among RBs with 14.4 carries. Out of all running backs, Rico Dowdle grades out in the 87th percentile for rush attempts this year, taking on 55.2% of the workload in his offense's run game. With an impressive record of 58.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (86th percentile), Rico Dowdle places among the best pure rushers in the league this year.

Rico Dowdle logo

Rico Dowdle

Prop: 46.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 57.62
Prop:
46.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
57.62

At the present time, the 7th-most run-focused offense in the league (42.1% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Panthers. In this week's game, Rico Dowdle is anticipated by our trusted projection set to finish in the 77th percentile among RBs with 14.4 carries. Out of all running backs, Rico Dowdle grades out in the 87th percentile for rush attempts this year, taking on 55.2% of the workload in his offense's run game. With an impressive record of 58.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (86th percentile), Rico Dowdle places among the best pure rushers in the league this year.

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Malik Willis Rushing Yards Props • Green Bay

Baltimore BAL @ Green Bay GB
Malik Willis
M. Willis
quarterback QB • Green Bay
Prop
32.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
24.96
Best Odds
Prop
32.5 Rushing Yards
Projection
24.96
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The predictive model expects the Packers to run the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 59.5 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 5th-best collection of safeties in football this year in regard to run defense.

Malik Willis logo

Malik Willis

Prop: 32.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 24.96
Prop:
32.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
24.96

The predictive model expects the Packers to run the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 59.5 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 5th-best collection of safeties in football this year in regard to run defense.

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Bryce Young Rushing Yards Props • Carolina

Seattle SEA @ Carolina CAR
Bryce Young
B. Young
quarterback QB • Carolina
Prop
14.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
20.93
Best Odds

At the present time, the 7th-most run-focused offense in the league (42.1% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Panthers. Bryce Young's ground effectiveness (6.37 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (79th percentile among QBs).

Bryce Young logo

Bryce Young

Prop: 14.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 20.93
Prop:
14.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
20.93

At the present time, the 7th-most run-focused offense in the league (42.1% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Panthers. Bryce Young's ground effectiveness (6.37 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (79th percentile among QBs).

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Caleb Williams Rushing Yards Props • Chicago

Chicago CHI @ San Francisco SF
Caleb Williams
C. Williams
quarterback QB • Chicago
Prop
16.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
22.73
Best Odds

The Bears rank as the 8th-most run-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 42.3% run rate. At only 28.00 seconds per play, the Bears offense profiles as the 6th-fastest paced in the league (in a neutral context) this year. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, San Francisco's unit has been awful this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.

Caleb Williams logo

Caleb Williams

Prop: 16.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 22.73
Prop:
16.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
22.73

The Bears rank as the 8th-most run-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 42.3% run rate. At only 28.00 seconds per play, the Bears offense profiles as the 6th-fastest paced in the league (in a neutral context) this year. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, San Francisco's unit has been awful this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.

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D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards Props • Chicago

Chicago CHI @ San Francisco SF
D'Andre Swift
D. Swift
running back RB • Chicago
Prop
12.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
18.47
Best Odds
Prop
12.5 Receiving Yards
Projection
18.47
Best Odds
Projection Rating

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bears are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on throwing than their typical approach. At only 28.00 seconds per play, the Bears offense profiles as the 6th-fastest paced in the league (in a neutral context) this year. The 49ers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (35.8 per game) this year. In this week's game, D'Andre Swift is anticipated by the model to place in the 78th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.1 targets. With an exceptional 9.9% Target% (84th percentile) this year, D'Andre Swift ranks among the pass-catching running backs with the most usage in football.

D'Andre Swift logo

D'Andre Swift

Prop: 12.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 18.47
Prop:
12.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
18.47

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bears are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on throwing than their typical approach. At only 28.00 seconds per play, the Bears offense profiles as the 6th-fastest paced in the league (in a neutral context) this year. The 49ers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (35.8 per game) this year. In this week's game, D'Andre Swift is anticipated by the model to place in the 78th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.1 targets. With an exceptional 9.9% Target% (84th percentile) this year, D'Andre Swift ranks among the pass-catching running backs with the most usage in football.

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Tre Tucker Receiving Yards Props • Las Vegas

New York NYG @ Las Vegas LV
Tre Tucker
T. Tucker
wide receiver WR • Las Vegas
Prop
45.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
56.13
Best Odds

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 59.8% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. This year, the poor New York Giants defense has surrendered a colossal 154.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts: the 9th-most in the NFL. This year, the anemic Giants defense has been torched for the 4th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing WRs: a colossal 8.76 yards.

Tre Tucker logo

Tre Tucker

Prop: 45.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 56.13
Prop:
45.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
56.13

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 59.8% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. This year, the poor New York Giants defense has surrendered a colossal 154.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts: the 9th-most in the NFL. This year, the anemic Giants defense has been torched for the 4th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing WRs: a colossal 8.76 yards.

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Brock Purdy Passing Yards Props • San Francisco

Chicago CHI @ San Francisco SF
Brock Purdy
B. Purdy
quarterback QB • San Francisco
Prop
251.5
Passing Yards
Projection
273.92
Best Odds

The predictive model expects Brock Purdy to attempt 35.8 passes in this game, on balance: the 9th-most out of all QBs. Brock Purdy's throwing accuracy has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 66.2% to 69.8%. With a remarkable 8.14 adjusted yards-per-target (87th percentile) this year, Brock Purdy stands among the most efficient passers in the league. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-highest level in the NFL versus the Chicago Bears defense this year (74.3% Adjusted Completion%). This year, the poor Bears defense has been torched for the 3rd-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to the opposing side: a whopping 8.49 yards.

Brock Purdy logo

Brock Purdy

Prop: 251.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 273.92
Prop:
251.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
273.92

The predictive model expects Brock Purdy to attempt 35.8 passes in this game, on balance: the 9th-most out of all QBs. Brock Purdy's throwing accuracy has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 66.2% to 69.8%. With a remarkable 8.14 adjusted yards-per-target (87th percentile) this year, Brock Purdy stands among the most efficient passers in the league. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-highest level in the NFL versus the Chicago Bears defense this year (74.3% Adjusted Completion%). This year, the poor Bears defense has been torched for the 3rd-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to the opposing side: a whopping 8.49 yards.

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Adonai Mitchell Receiving Yards Props • N.Y. Jets

New England NE @ New York NYJ
Adonai Mitchell
A. Mitchell
wide receiver WR • N.Y. Jets
Prop
40.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
50.17
Best Odds

The New York Jets may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Brady Cook. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan. The Patriots pass defense has given up the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67.1%) to wideouts this year (67.1%). This year, the shaky New England Patriots defense has given up the 6th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing WRs: a monstrous 8.55 yards.

Adonai Mitchell logo

Adonai Mitchell

Prop: 40.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 50.17
Prop:
40.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
50.17

The New York Jets may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Brady Cook. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan. The Patriots pass defense has given up the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67.1%) to wideouts this year (67.1%). This year, the shaky New England Patriots defense has given up the 6th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing WRs: a monstrous 8.55 yards.

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Breece Hall Rushing Yards Props • N.Y. Jets

New England NE @ New York NYJ
Breece Hall
B. Hall
running back RB • N.Y. Jets
Prop
59.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
70.61
Best Odds

At the moment, the 2nd-most run-oriented offense in the league (45.6% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Jets. In this game, Breece Hall is projected by the projections to rank in the 97th percentile among RBs with 18.5 carries. Out of all running backs, Breece Hall ranks in the 89th percentile for carries this year, accounting for 59.2% of the workload in his team's rushing attack. Breece Hall has picked up 52.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in the league when it comes to running backs (84th percentile).

Breece Hall logo

Breece Hall

Prop: 59.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 70.61
Prop:
59.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
70.61

At the moment, the 2nd-most run-oriented offense in the league (45.6% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Jets. In this game, Breece Hall is projected by the projections to rank in the 97th percentile among RBs with 18.5 carries. Out of all running backs, Breece Hall ranks in the 89th percentile for carries this year, accounting for 59.2% of the workload in his team's rushing attack. Breece Hall has picked up 52.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in the league when it comes to running backs (84th percentile).

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How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

All NFL Player Props

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December 27

Houston HOUat L.A. Chargers LAC 16:30 ET Baltimore BALat Green Bay GB 20:00 ET

December 28

Tampa Bay TBat Miami MIA 13:00 ET New England NEat N.Y. Jets NYJ 13:00 ET Pittsburgh PITat Cleveland CLE 13:00 ET Arizona ARIat Cincinnati CIN 13:00 ET New Orleans NOat Tennessee TEN 13:00 ET Jacksonville JACat Indianapolis IND 13:00 ET Seattle SEAat Carolina CAR 13:00 ET N.Y. Giants NYGat Las Vegas LV 16:05 ET Philadelphia PHIat Buffalo BUF 16:25 ET Chicago CHIat San Francisco SF 20:20 ET

December 29

L.A. Rams LAat Atlanta ATL 20:15 ET
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