NFL Player Props and Best Projections

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Matchups
Projections
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Attempts Props • Miami

Cincinnati CIN @ Miami MIA
Tua Tagovailoa
T. Tagovailoa
quarterback QB • Miami
Prop
0.5
Passing Attempts
Projection
30.72
Best Odds

Chris Rodriguez Jr. Receiving Yards Props • Washington

Philadelphia PHI @ Washington WAS
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
C. Rodriguez Jr.
running back RB • Washington
Prop
0.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
4.32
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Receiving Yards
Projection
4.32
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The Washington Commanders will be forced to start backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan. At the moment, the 9th-fastest paced offense in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Washington Commanders. Chris Rodriguez Jr. has been more involved as a potential target this season (18.8% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (6.6%). This year, the feeble Eagles defense has conceded a whopping 40.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing RBs: the 5th-most in the league.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. logo

Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Prop: 0.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 4.32
Prop:
0.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
4.32

The Washington Commanders will be forced to start backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan. At the moment, the 9th-fastest paced offense in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Washington Commanders. Chris Rodriguez Jr. has been more involved as a potential target this season (18.8% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (6.6%). This year, the feeble Eagles defense has conceded a whopping 40.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing RBs: the 5th-most in the league.

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Philip Rivers Rushing Yards Props • Indianapolis

San Francisco SF @ Indianapolis IND
Philip Rivers
P. Rivers
quarterback QB • Indianapolis
Prop
0.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
7.99
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Rushing Yards
Projection
7.99
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Right now, the 2nd-most run-heavy team in the league (44.3% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Colts. The San Francisco defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-worst group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

Philip Rivers logo

Philip Rivers

Prop: 0.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 7.99
Prop:
0.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
7.99

Right now, the 2nd-most run-heavy team in the league (44.3% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Colts. The San Francisco defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-worst group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

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Brady Cook Passing Completions Props • N.Y. Jets

New York NYJ @ New Orleans NO
Brady Cook
B. Cook
quarterback QB • N.Y. Jets
Prop
16.5
Passing Completions
Projection
18.96
Best Odds

The New York Jets may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to utilize backup quarterback Brady Cook. At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off. The Saints defensive ends grade out as the 5th-worst group of DEs in the league this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

Brady Cook logo

Brady Cook

Prop: 16.5 Passing Completions
Projection: 18.96
Prop:
16.5 Passing Completions
Projection:
18.96

The New York Jets may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to utilize backup quarterback Brady Cook. At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off. The Saints defensive ends grade out as the 5th-worst group of DEs in the league this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

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Kirk Cousins Rushing Yards Props • Atlanta

Atlanta ATL @ Arizona ARI
Kirk Cousins
K. Cousins
quarterback QB • Atlanta
Prop
0.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
1.7
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Rushing Yards
Projection
1.7
Best Odds
Projection Rating

This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Falcons, who are favored by 3 points. Our trusted projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to be the 3rd-most run-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 43.6% run rate. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to see 135.8 total plays run: the most out of all the games this week. This year, the tough Cardinals run defense has surrendered a meager 5.26 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's rushing attack: the 29th-smallest rate in the league. The Arizona defensive ends profile as the 4th-worst group of DEs in the league this year with their run defense.

Kirk Cousins logo

Kirk Cousins

Prop: 0.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 1.7
Prop:
0.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
1.7

This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Falcons, who are favored by 3 points. Our trusted projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to be the 3rd-most run-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 43.6% run rate. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to see 135.8 total plays run: the most out of all the games this week. This year, the tough Cardinals run defense has surrendered a meager 5.26 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's rushing attack: the 29th-smallest rate in the league. The Arizona defensive ends profile as the 4th-worst group of DEs in the league this year with their run defense.

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Jared Goff Rushing Yards Props • Detroit

Pittsburgh PIT @ Detroit DET
Jared Goff
J. Goff
quarterback QB • Detroit
Prop
0.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
1.54
Best Odds

This game's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Lions, who are a massive favorite by 7 points. Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are forecasted by the model to run 67.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-most on the slate this week. Jared Goff's 6.24 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season marks a noteable improvement in his running ability over last season's 3.58 rate.

Jared Goff logo

Jared Goff

Prop: 0.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 1.54
Prop:
0.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
1.54

This game's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Lions, who are a massive favorite by 7 points. Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are forecasted by the model to run 67.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-most on the slate this week. Jared Goff's 6.24 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season marks a noteable improvement in his running ability over last season's 3.58 rate.

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Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards Props • Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh PIT @ Detroit DET
Aaron Rodgers
A. Rodgers
quarterback QB • Pittsburgh
Prop
0.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
3.72
Best Odds

The model projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.0 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

Aaron Rodgers logo

Aaron Rodgers

Prop: 0.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 3.72
Prop:
0.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
3.72

The model projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.0 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

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Joe Burrow Rushing Yards Props • Cincinnati

Cincinnati CIN @ Miami MIA
Joe Burrow
J. Burrow
quarterback QB • Cincinnati
Prop
3.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
8.93
Best Odds

A running game script is implied by the Bengals being a 4-point favorite in this week's game. Opposing offenses have rushed for the 6th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (135 per game) versus the Dolphins defense this year.

Joe Burrow logo

Joe Burrow

Prop: 3.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 8.93
Prop:
3.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
8.93

A running game script is implied by the Bengals being a 4-point favorite in this week's game. Opposing offenses have rushed for the 6th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (135 per game) versus the Dolphins defense this year.

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Keenan Allen Receiving Yards Props • L.A. Chargers

Los Angeles LAC @ Dallas DAL
Keenan Allen
K. Allen
wide receiver WR • L.A. Chargers
Prop
36.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
58.68
Best Odds

Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.5 plays per game. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. The Cowboys defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (36.9 per game) this year. The model projects Keenan Allen to notch 8.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

Keenan Allen logo

Keenan Allen

Prop: 36.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 58.68
Prop:
36.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
58.68

Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.5 plays per game. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. The Cowboys defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (36.9 per game) this year. The model projects Keenan Allen to notch 8.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

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Tre Tucker Receiving Yards Props • Las Vegas

Las Vegas LV @ Houston HOU
Tre Tucker
T. Tucker
wide receiver WR • Las Vegas
Prop
25.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
44.6
Best Odds

At a -14-point disadvantage, the Raiders are huge underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Raiders to pass on 66.5% of their opportunities: the greatest frequency on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Tre Tucker logo

Tre Tucker

Prop: 25.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 44.6
Prop:
25.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
44.6

At a -14-point disadvantage, the Raiders are huge underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Raiders to pass on 66.5% of their opportunities: the greatest frequency on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

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Ashton Jeanty Rushing Yards Props • Las Vegas

Las Vegas LV @ Houston HOU
Ashton Jeanty
A. Jeanty
running back RB • Las Vegas
Prop
43.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
63.1
Best Odds

Marvin Harrison Jr. Receiving Yards Props • Arizona

Atlanta ATL @ Arizona ARI
Marvin Harrison Jr.
M. Harrison Jr.
wide receiver WR • Arizona
Prop
47.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
67.45
Best Odds

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical game plan. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cardinals to pass on 63.9% of their downs: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have 135.8 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week. The 2nd-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Arizona Cardinals this year (a monstrous 61.3 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.

Marvin Harrison Jr. logo

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Prop: 47.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 67.45
Prop:
47.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
67.45

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical game plan. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cardinals to pass on 63.9% of their downs: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have 135.8 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week. The 2nd-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Arizona Cardinals this year (a monstrous 61.3 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.

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Woody Marks Receiving Yards Props • Houston

Las Vegas LV @ Houston HOU
Woody Marks
W. Marks
running back RB • Houston
Prop
5.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
13.42
Best Odds
Prop
5.5 Receiving Yards
Projection
13.42
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 2nd-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.24 seconds per play. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer. This year, the deficient Las Vegas Raiders defense has yielded a massive 34.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing running backs: the 10th-worst in the NFL. As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Las Vegas's group of safeties has been awful this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in football.

Woody Marks logo

Woody Marks

Prop: 5.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 13.42
Prop:
5.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
13.42

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 2nd-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.24 seconds per play. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer. This year, the deficient Las Vegas Raiders defense has yielded a massive 34.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing running backs: the 10th-worst in the NFL. As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Las Vegas's group of safeties has been awful this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in football.

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Brock Purdy Rushing Yards Props • San Francisco

San Francisco SF @ Indianapolis IND
Brock Purdy
B. Purdy
quarterback QB • San Francisco
Prop
9.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
19.1
Best Odds

A running game script is suggested by the 49ers being a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game. The San Francisco 49ers have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.4 plays per game. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Indianapolis's collection of DTs has been very bad this year, ranking as the 9th-worst in the league. in the league.

Brock Purdy logo

Brock Purdy

Prop: 9.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 19.1
Prop:
9.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
19.1

A running game script is suggested by the 49ers being a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game. The San Francisco 49ers have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.4 plays per game. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Indianapolis's collection of DTs has been very bad this year, ranking as the 9th-worst in the league. in the league.

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Philip Rivers Passing Yards Props • Indianapolis

San Francisco SF @ Indianapolis IND
Philip Rivers
P. Rivers
quarterback QB • Indianapolis
Prop
157.5
Passing Yards
Projection
247.9
Best Odds

The Colts are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline. The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year. When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Colts ranks as the best in football this year. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 10th-highest rate in football vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year (72.6% Adjusted Completion%).

Philip Rivers logo

Philip Rivers

Prop: 157.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 247.9
Prop:
157.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
247.9

The Colts are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline. The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year. When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Colts ranks as the best in football this year. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 10th-highest rate in football vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year (72.6% Adjusted Completion%).

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Darnell Washington Receiving Yards Props • Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh PIT @ Detroit DET
Darnell Washington
D. Washington
tight end TE • Pittsburgh
Prop
23.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
37.24
Best Odds

The Steelers are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script. The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.1% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.0 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. In this game, Darnell Washington is anticipated by our trusted projection set to slot into the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.0 targets.

Darnell Washington logo

Darnell Washington

Prop: 23.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 37.24
Prop:
23.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
37.24

The Steelers are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script. The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.1% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.0 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. In this game, Darnell Washington is anticipated by our trusted projection set to slot into the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.0 targets.

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Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards Props • Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh PIT @ Detroit DET
Jaylen Warren
J. Warren
running back RB • Pittsburgh
Prop
11.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
21.49
Best Odds

The Steelers are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script. The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The predictive model expects Jaylen Warren to garner 4.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.

Jaylen Warren logo

Jaylen Warren

Prop: 11.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 21.49
Prop:
11.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
21.49

The Steelers are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script. The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The predictive model expects Jaylen Warren to garner 4.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.

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Xavier Worthy Receiving Yards Props • Kansas City

Kansas City KC @ Tennessee TEN
Xavier Worthy
X. Worthy
wide receiver WR • Kansas City
Prop
38.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
54.84
Best Odds

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game. The Kansas City offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board. This year, the deficient Titans pass defense has allowed a staggering 71.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the worst rate in the NFL. This year, the poor Tennessee Titans defense has been gouged for the most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing wideouts: a colossal 9.82 yards.

Xavier Worthy logo

Xavier Worthy

Prop: 38.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 54.84
Prop:
38.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
54.84

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game. The Kansas City offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board. This year, the deficient Titans pass defense has allowed a staggering 71.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the worst rate in the NFL. This year, the poor Tennessee Titans defense has been gouged for the most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing wideouts: a colossal 9.82 yards.

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Quinn Ewers Rushing Yards Props • Miami

Cincinnati CIN @ Miami MIA
Quinn Ewers
Q. Ewers
quarterback QB • Miami
Prop
5.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
14.8
Best Odds

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to run on 45.7% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest rate on the slate this week. The opposing side have run for the most adjusted yards in the NFL (159 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year. The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers grade out as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in football this year in regard to run defense.

Quinn Ewers logo

Quinn Ewers

Prop: 5.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 14.8
Prop:
5.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
14.8

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to run on 45.7% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest rate on the slate this week. The opposing side have run for the most adjusted yards in the NFL (159 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year. The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers grade out as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in football this year in regard to run defense.

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Rashee Rice Receiving Yards Props • Kansas City

Kansas City KC @ Tennessee TEN
Rashee Rice
R. Rice
wide receiver WR • Kansas City
Prop
55.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
74.06
Best Odds
Prop
55.5 Receiving Yards
Projection
74.06
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game. Rashee Rice has gone out for fewer passes this season (76.7% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (65.1%). In this contest, Rashee Rice is forecasted by the model to secure a spot in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 9.7 targets. This year, the deficient Titans pass defense has allowed a staggering 71.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the worst rate in the NFL.

Rashee Rice logo

Rashee Rice

Prop: 55.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 74.06
Prop:
55.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
74.06

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game. Rashee Rice has gone out for fewer passes this season (76.7% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (65.1%). In this contest, Rashee Rice is forecasted by the model to secure a spot in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 9.7 targets. This year, the deficient Titans pass defense has allowed a staggering 71.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the worst rate in the NFL.

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Adonai Mitchell Receiving Yards Props • N.Y. Jets

New York NYJ @ New Orleans NO
Adonai Mitchell
A. Mitchell
wide receiver WR • N.Y. Jets
Prop
38.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
54.23
Best Odds

The New York Jets may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to utilize backup quarterback Brady Cook. At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off. The Saints defensive ends grade out as the 5th-worst group of DEs in the league this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

Adonai Mitchell logo

Adonai Mitchell

Prop: 38.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 54.23
Prop:
38.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
54.23

The New York Jets may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to utilize backup quarterback Brady Cook. At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off. The Saints defensive ends grade out as the 5th-worst group of DEs in the league this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

All Matchup props

Brock Bowers Receiving Yards Props • Las Vegas

Las Vegas LV @ Houston HOU
Brock Bowers
B. Bowers
tight end TE • Las Vegas
Prop
50.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
67.92
Best Odds

At a -14-point disadvantage, the Raiders are huge underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Raiders to pass on 66.5% of their opportunities: the greatest frequency on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Brock Bowers logo

Brock Bowers

Prop: 50.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 67.92
Prop:
50.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
67.92

At a -14-point disadvantage, the Raiders are huge underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Raiders to pass on 66.5% of their opportunities: the greatest frequency on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

All Matchup props

Michael Pittman Jr. Receiving Yards Props • Indianapolis

San Francisco SF @ Indianapolis IND
Michael Pittman Jr.
M. Pittman Jr.
wide receiver WR • Indianapolis
Prop
29.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
57.97
Best Odds

The Colts are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline. The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year. The leading projections forecast Michael Pittman to total 7.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers. Michael Pittman has been an integral part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 23.8% this year, which ranks in the 85th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

Michael Pittman Jr. logo

Michael Pittman Jr.

Prop: 29.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 57.97
Prop:
29.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
57.97

The Colts are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline. The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year. The leading projections forecast Michael Pittman to total 7.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers. Michael Pittman has been an integral part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 23.8% this year, which ranks in the 85th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

All Matchup props

Geno Smith Passing Yards Props • Las Vegas

Las Vegas LV @ Houston HOU
Geno Smith
G. Smith
quarterback QB • Las Vegas
Prop
179.5
Passing Yards
Projection
232.63
Best Odds

At a -14-point disadvantage, the Raiders are huge underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Raiders to pass on 66.5% of their opportunities: the greatest frequency on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The leading projections forecast Geno Smith to throw 38.5 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 4th-most among all QBs.

Geno Smith logo

Geno Smith

Prop: 179.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 232.63
Prop:
179.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
232.63

At a -14-point disadvantage, the Raiders are huge underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Raiders to pass on 66.5% of their opportunities: the greatest frequency on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The leading projections forecast Geno Smith to throw 38.5 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 4th-most among all QBs.

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Michael Wilson Receiving Yards Props • Arizona

Atlanta ATL @ Arizona ARI
Michael Wilson
M. Wilson
wide receiver WR • Arizona
Prop
55.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
85.47
Best Odds

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cardinals to pass on 63.7% of their downs: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have 136.1 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week. The 2nd-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Arizona Cardinals this year (a monstrous 61.3 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop. The projections expect Michael Wilson to accumulate 10.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.

Michael Wilson logo

Michael Wilson

Prop: 55.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 85.47
Prop:
55.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
85.47

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cardinals to pass on 63.7% of their downs: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have 136.1 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week. The 2nd-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Arizona Cardinals this year (a monstrous 61.3 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop. The projections expect Michael Wilson to accumulate 10.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.

All Matchup props

Tyler Warren Receiving Yards Props • Indianapolis

San Francisco SF @ Indianapolis IND
Tyler Warren
T. Warren
tight end TE • Indianapolis
Prop
33.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
55.54
Best Odds

The Colts are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline. The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year. When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Colts ranks as the best in football this year. When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, San Francisco's unit has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in the NFL.

Tyler Warren logo

Tyler Warren

Prop: 33.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 55.54
Prop:
33.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
55.54

The Colts are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline. The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year. When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Colts ranks as the best in football this year. When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, San Francisco's unit has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in the NFL.

All Matchup props

C.J. Stroud Passing Yards Props • Houston

Las Vegas LV @ Houston HOU
C.J. Stroud
C. Stroud
quarterback QB • Houston
Prop
223.5
Passing Yards
Projection
256.18
Best Odds

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 2nd-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.24 seconds per play. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer. C.J. Stroud's 64.7% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a noteable improvement in his passing precision over last year's 61.0% figure. This year, the porous Las Vegas Raiders defense has allowed a staggering 73.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 7th-highest rate in the NFL. This year, the anemic Raiders defense has been torched for the 7th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing offenses: a monstrous 7.95 yards.

C.J. Stroud logo

C.J. Stroud

Prop: 223.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 256.18
Prop:
223.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
256.18

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 2nd-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.24 seconds per play. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer. C.J. Stroud's 64.7% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a noteable improvement in his passing precision over last year's 61.0% figure. This year, the porous Las Vegas Raiders defense has allowed a staggering 73.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 7th-highest rate in the NFL. This year, the anemic Raiders defense has been torched for the 7th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing offenses: a monstrous 7.95 yards.

All Matchup props

George Pickens Receiving Yards Props • Dallas

Los Angeles LAC @ Dallas DAL
George Pickens
G. Pickens
wide receiver WR • Dallas
Prop
62.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
80.49
Best Odds

The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 6th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The Cowboys have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 60.3 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. In this contest, George Pickens is expected by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 93rd percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.5 targets. When talking about air yards, George Pickens ranks in the lofty 93rd percentile among wideouts this year, accumulating a massive 99.0 per game.

George Pickens logo

George Pickens

Prop: 62.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 80.49
Prop:
62.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
80.49

The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 6th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The Cowboys have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 60.3 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. In this contest, George Pickens is expected by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 93rd percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.5 targets. When talking about air yards, George Pickens ranks in the lofty 93rd percentile among wideouts this year, accumulating a massive 99.0 per game.

All Matchup props

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Props • L.A. Chargers

Los Angeles LAC @ Dallas DAL
Justin Herbert
J. Herbert
quarterback QB • L.A. Chargers
Prop
17.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
27.68
Best Odds

The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.5 plays per game. The predictive model expects Justin Herbert to accumulate 4.9 carries in this game, on balance: the 8th-most among all quarterbacks. Justin Herbert has been a more important option in his team's rushing attack this season (16.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (11.4%). Justin Herbert has rushed for quite a few more yards per game (27.0) this season than he did last season (19.0). This year, the daunting Dallas Cowboys run defense has surrendered a measly 4.99 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing ground game: the 27th-smallest rate in football.

Justin Herbert logo

Justin Herbert

Prop: 17.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 27.68
Prop:
17.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
27.68

The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.5 plays per game. The predictive model expects Justin Herbert to accumulate 4.9 carries in this game, on balance: the 8th-most among all quarterbacks. Justin Herbert has been a more important option in his team's rushing attack this season (16.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (11.4%). Justin Herbert has rushed for quite a few more yards per game (27.0) this season than he did last season (19.0). This year, the daunting Dallas Cowboys run defense has surrendered a measly 4.99 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing ground game: the 27th-smallest rate in football.

All Matchup props

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Props • Miami

Cincinnati CIN @ Miami MIA
Tua Tagovailoa
T. Tagovailoa
quarterback QB • Miami
Prop
188.5
Passing Yards
Projection
240.23
Best Odds

Opposing offenses have thrown for the 4th-most adjusted yards in football (260.0 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year. The Bengals pass defense has displayed bad efficiency this year, conceding 8.86 adjusted yards-per-target: the 2nd-most in the league. The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in the league this year in defending receivers.

Tua Tagovailoa logo

Tua Tagovailoa

Prop: 188.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 240.23
Prop:
188.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
240.23

Opposing offenses have thrown for the 4th-most adjusted yards in football (260.0 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year. The Bengals pass defense has displayed bad efficiency this year, conceding 8.86 adjusted yards-per-target: the 2nd-most in the league. The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in the league this year in defending receivers.

All Matchup props

Ladd McConkey Receiving Yards Props • L.A. Chargers

Los Angeles LAC @ Dallas DAL
Ladd McConkey
L. McConkey
wide receiver WR • L.A. Chargers
Prop
43.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
67.4
Best Odds

Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.5 plays per game. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. The Cowboys defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.9 per game) this year. This year, the deficient Dallas Cowboys pass defense has conceded a monstrous 69.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 3rd-worst rate in the league.

Ladd McConkey logo

Ladd McConkey

Prop: 43.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 67.4
Prop:
43.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
67.4

Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.5 plays per game. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. The Cowboys defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.9 per game) this year. This year, the deficient Dallas Cowboys pass defense has conceded a monstrous 69.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 3rd-worst rate in the league.

All Matchup props

Shedeur Sanders Rushing Yards Props • Cleveland

Buffalo BUF @ Cleveland CLE
Shedeur Sanders
S. Sanders
quarterback QB • Cleveland
Prop
8.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
17.93
Best Odds

Our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns to be the 10th-most run-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.2% run rate. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 131.0 plays on offense run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being predicted in this game) typically cause lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume. This year, the shaky Bills run defense has conceded a monstrous 142.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 3rd-worst in football. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Buffalo's unit has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Shedeur Sanders logo

Shedeur Sanders

Prop: 8.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 17.93
Prop:
8.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
17.93

Our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns to be the 10th-most run-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.2% run rate. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 131.0 plays on offense run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being predicted in this game) typically cause lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume. This year, the shaky Bills run defense has conceded a monstrous 142.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 3rd-worst in football. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Buffalo's unit has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

All Matchup props

Cam Ward Rushing Yards Props • Tennessee

Kansas City KC @ Tennessee TEN
Cam Ward
C. Ward
quarterback QB • Tennessee
Prop
7.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
13.43
Best Odds

Quinshon Judkins Rushing Yards Props • Cleveland

Buffalo BUF @ Cleveland CLE
Quinshon Judkins
Q. Judkins
running back RB • Cleveland
Prop
60.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
79.47
Best Odds

Our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns to be the 10th-most run-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.2% run rate. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 131.0 plays on offense run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being predicted in this game) typically cause lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume. This year, the shaky Bills run defense has conceded a monstrous 142.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 3rd-worst in football. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Buffalo's unit has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Quinshon Judkins logo

Quinshon Judkins

Prop: 60.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 79.47
Prop:
60.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
79.47

Our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns to be the 10th-most run-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.2% run rate. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 131.0 plays on offense run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being predicted in this game) typically cause lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume. This year, the shaky Bills run defense has conceded a monstrous 142.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 3rd-worst in football. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Buffalo's unit has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

All Matchup props

Tyrone Tracy Jr. Receiving Yards Props • N.Y. Giants

Minnesota MIN @ New York NYG
Tyrone Tracy Jr.
T. Tracy Jr.
running back RB • N.Y. Giants
Prop
11.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
19.23
Best Odds

Our trusted projections expect the Giants to run the 9th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The 6th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the New York Giants this year (a staggering 60.4 per game on average). When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Giants ranks as the 8th-best in football this year.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. logo

Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Prop: 11.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 19.23
Prop:
11.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
19.23

Our trusted projections expect the Giants to run the 9th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The 6th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the New York Giants this year (a staggering 60.4 per game on average). When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Giants ranks as the 8th-best in football this year.

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Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Props • Green Bay

Green Bay GB @ Chicago CHI
Josh Jacobs
J. Jacobs
running back RB • Green Bay
Prop
10.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
17.77
Best Odds
Prop
10.5 Receiving Yards
Projection
17.77
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The projections expect Josh Jacobs to accrue 3.2 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile among running backs. With an exceptional 10.8% Target Rate (86th percentile) this year, Josh Jacobs has been as one of the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume in the league. With an excellent 19.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (89th percentile) this year, Josh Jacobs places among the top RBs in the pass game in football. When it comes to linebackers rushing the passer, Chicago's LB corps has been dreadful this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

Josh Jacobs logo

Josh Jacobs

Prop: 10.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 17.77
Prop:
10.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
17.77

The projections expect Josh Jacobs to accrue 3.2 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile among running backs. With an exceptional 10.8% Target Rate (86th percentile) this year, Josh Jacobs has been as one of the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume in the league. With an excellent 19.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (89th percentile) this year, Josh Jacobs places among the top RBs in the pass game in football. When it comes to linebackers rushing the passer, Chicago's LB corps has been dreadful this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

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Kirk Cousins Passing Yards Props • Atlanta

Atlanta ATL @ Arizona ARI
Kirk Cousins
K. Cousins
quarterback QB • Atlanta
Prop
227.5
Passing Yards
Projection
259.23
Best Odds

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to see 135.8 total plays run: the most out of all the games this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The leading projections forecast Kirk Cousins to throw 36.3 passes this week, on balance: the 9th-most out of all quarterbacks. The Atlanta O-line ranks as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack metrics across the board. As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Arizona's safety corps has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in the league.

Kirk Cousins logo

Kirk Cousins

Prop: 227.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 259.23
Prop:
227.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
259.23

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to see 135.8 total plays run: the most out of all the games this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The leading projections forecast Kirk Cousins to throw 36.3 passes this week, on balance: the 9th-most out of all quarterbacks. The Atlanta O-line ranks as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack metrics across the board. As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Arizona's safety corps has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in the league.

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Jared Goff Passing Yards Props • Detroit

Pittsburgh PIT @ Detroit DET
Jared Goff
J. Goff
quarterback QB • Detroit
Prop
264.5
Passing Yards
Projection
295.92
Best Odds

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are forecasted by the model to run 67.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-most on the slate this week. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. The projections expect Jared Goff to attempt 36.9 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 6th-most out of all quarterbacks. Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game versus the Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football. Jared Goff has been one of the top QBs in the league this year, averaging an excellent 244.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 95th percentile.

Jared Goff logo

Jared Goff

Prop: 264.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 295.92
Prop:
264.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
295.92

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are forecasted by the model to run 67.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-most on the slate this week. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. The projections expect Jared Goff to attempt 36.9 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 6th-most out of all quarterbacks. Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game versus the Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football. Jared Goff has been one of the top QBs in the league this year, averaging an excellent 244.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 95th percentile.

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Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Props • Dallas

Los Angeles LAC @ Dallas DAL
Jake Ferguson
J. Ferguson
tight end TE • Dallas
Prop
33.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
44.79
Best Odds

The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 6th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The Cowboys have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 60.3 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Jake Ferguson has gone out for fewer passes this year (77.5% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (67.0%). The projections expect Jake Ferguson to total 6.7 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 91st percentile when it comes to TEs.

Jake Ferguson logo

Jake Ferguson

Prop: 33.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 44.79
Prop:
33.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
44.79

The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 6th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The Cowboys have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 60.3 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Jake Ferguson has gone out for fewer passes this year (77.5% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (67.0%). The projections expect Jake Ferguson to total 6.7 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 91st percentile when it comes to TEs.

All Matchup props

J.J. McCarthy Rushing Yards Props • Minnesota

Minnesota MIN @ New York NYG
J.J. McCarthy
J. McCarthy
quarterback QB • Minnesota
Prop
13.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
21.13
Best Odds

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency. This year, the stout Giants run defense has yielded a feeble 5.80 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing squads: the 32nd-best rate in football. The New York Giants safeties rank as the 32nd-worst safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

J.J. McCarthy logo

J.J. McCarthy

Prop: 13.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 21.13
Prop:
13.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
21.13

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency. This year, the stout Giants run defense has yielded a feeble 5.80 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing squads: the 32nd-best rate in football. The New York Giants safeties rank as the 32nd-worst safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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Chase Brown Receiving Yards Props • Cincinnati

Cincinnati CIN @ Miami MIA
Chase Brown
C. Brown
running back RB • Cincinnati
Prop
20.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
30.65
Best Odds

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 62.3% of their plays: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week. The model projects Chase Brown to total 5.7 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 95th percentile when it comes to running backs. Chase Brown has accumulated a monstrous 4.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like very many, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage). Chase Brown's 23.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 17.9. With a terrific 23.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (94th percentile) this year, Chase Brown ranks as one of the best pass-catching running backs in the league.

Chase Brown logo

Chase Brown

Prop: 20.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 30.65
Prop:
20.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
30.65

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 62.3% of their plays: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week. The model projects Chase Brown to total 5.7 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 95th percentile when it comes to running backs. Chase Brown has accumulated a monstrous 4.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like very many, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage). Chase Brown's 23.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 17.9. With a terrific 23.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (94th percentile) this year, Chase Brown ranks as one of the best pass-catching running backs in the league.

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Chimere Dike Receiving Yards Props • Tennessee

Kansas City KC @ Tennessee TEN
Chimere Dike
C. Dike
wide receiver WR • Tennessee
Prop
27.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
38.22
Best Odds

This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Titans, who are -3-point underdogs. The Chiefs pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.3%) to WRs this year (67.3%).

Chimere Dike logo

Chimere Dike

Prop: 27.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 38.22
Prop:
27.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
38.22

This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Titans, who are -3-point underdogs. The Chiefs pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.3%) to WRs this year (67.3%).

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John Bates Receiving Yards Props • Washington

Philadelphia PHI @ Washington WAS
John Bates
J. Bates
tight end TE • Washington
Prop
9.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
15.95
Best Odds

The Washington Commanders will be forced to start backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan. At the moment, the 9th-fastest paced offense in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Washington Commanders. While John Bates has received 3.4% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a much bigger part of Washington's passing offense in this game at 9.0%. John Bates's 81.7% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a noteable progression in his receiving ability over last season's 70.2% figure.

John Bates logo

John Bates

Prop: 9.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 15.95
Prop:
9.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
15.95

The Washington Commanders will be forced to start backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan. At the moment, the 9th-fastest paced offense in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Washington Commanders. While John Bates has received 3.4% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a much bigger part of Washington's passing offense in this game at 9.0%. John Bates's 81.7% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a noteable progression in his receiving ability over last season's 70.2% figure.

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Drake London Receiving Yards Props • Atlanta

Atlanta ATL @ Arizona ARI
Drake London
D. London
wide receiver WR • Atlanta
Prop
72.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
88.02
Best Odds

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to see 135.8 total plays run: the most out of all the games this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The model projects Drake London to garner 10.5 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs. With an exceptional 32.2% Target Share (98th percentile) this year, Drake London has been among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the NFL. In regards to air yards, Drake London grades out in the lofty 93rd percentile among wideouts this year, averaging a whopping 100.0 per game.

Drake London logo

Drake London

Prop: 72.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 88.02
Prop:
72.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
88.02

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to see 135.8 total plays run: the most out of all the games this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The model projects Drake London to garner 10.5 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs. With an exceptional 32.2% Target Share (98th percentile) this year, Drake London has been among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the NFL. In regards to air yards, Drake London grades out in the lofty 93rd percentile among wideouts this year, averaging a whopping 100.0 per game.

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Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Props • San Francisco

San Francisco SF @ Indianapolis IND
Christian McCaffrey
C. McCaffrey
running back RB • San Francisco
Prop
36.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
47.81
Best Odds

The San Francisco 49ers have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.4 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. Opposing offenses have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL. Christian McCaffrey has been more involved as a potential target this season (81.2% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (68.1%). The leading projections forecast Christian McCaffrey to accrue 7.2 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Christian McCaffrey logo

Christian McCaffrey

Prop: 36.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 47.81
Prop:
36.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
47.81

The San Francisco 49ers have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.4 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. Opposing offenses have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL. Christian McCaffrey has been more involved as a potential target this season (81.2% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (68.1%). The leading projections forecast Christian McCaffrey to accrue 7.2 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs.

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Jaylen Warren Rushing Yards Props • Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh PIT @ Detroit DET
Jaylen Warren
J. Warren
running back RB • Pittsburgh
Prop
40.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
52.08
Best Odds

The model projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. Jaylen Warren has been a more integral piece of his offense's run game this season (59.6% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (25.6%). Jaylen Warren has rushed for substantially more adjusted yards per game (46.0) this year than he did last year (33.0).

Jaylen Warren logo

Jaylen Warren

Prop: 40.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 52.08
Prop:
40.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
52.08

The model projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. Jaylen Warren has been a more integral piece of his offense's run game this season (59.6% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (25.6%). Jaylen Warren has rushed for substantially more adjusted yards per game (46.0) this year than he did last year (33.0).

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Gardner Minshew Rushing Yards Props • Kansas City

Kansas City KC @ Tennessee TEN
Gardner Minshew
G. Minshew
quarterback QB • Kansas City
Prop
5.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
10.5
Best Odds

A rushing game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 3-point favorite in this game. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game. While Gardner Minshew has been responsible for 0.0% of his offense's rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Kansas City's run game in this week's contest at 10.0%. The opposing side have run for the 8th-most adjusted yards in the league (131 per game) versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year.

Gardner Minshew logo

Gardner Minshew

Prop: 5.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 10.5
Prop:
5.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
10.5

A rushing game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 3-point favorite in this game. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game. While Gardner Minshew has been responsible for 0.0% of his offense's rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Kansas City's run game in this week's contest at 10.0%. The opposing side have run for the 8th-most adjusted yards in the league (131 per game) versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year.

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Javonte Williams Receiving Yards Props • Dallas

Los Angeles LAC @ Dallas DAL
Javonte Williams
J. Williams
running back RB • Dallas
Prop
7.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
13.93
Best Odds

The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 6th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The Cowboys have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 60.3 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Javonte Williams has been used more as a potential target this season (57.4% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (44.1%). The leading projections forecast Javonte Williams to accrue 3.2 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile when it comes to running backs.

Javonte Williams logo

Javonte Williams

Prop: 7.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 13.93
Prop:
7.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
13.93

The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 6th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The Cowboys have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 60.3 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Javonte Williams has been used more as a potential target this season (57.4% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (44.1%). The leading projections forecast Javonte Williams to accrue 3.2 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile when it comes to running backs.

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Mike Evans Receiving Yards Props • Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay TB @ Carolina CAR
Mike Evans
M. Evans
wide receiver WR • Tampa Bay
Prop
64.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
54.53
Best Odds

A running game script is implied by the Buccaneers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Mike Evans's 62.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 69.7. Mike Evans has accrued a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (44.0) this year than he did last year (73.0). This year, the strong Carolina Panthers defense has conceded a feeble 62.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 6th-smallest rate in the league.

Mike Evans logo

Mike Evans

Prop: 64.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 54.53
Prop:
64.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
54.53

A running game script is implied by the Buccaneers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Mike Evans's 62.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 69.7. Mike Evans has accrued a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (44.0) this year than he did last year (73.0). This year, the strong Carolina Panthers defense has conceded a feeble 62.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 6th-smallest rate in the league.

All Matchup props

Drake Maye Rushing Yards Props • New England

New England NE @ Baltimore BAL
Drake Maye
D. Maye
quarterback QB • New England
Prop
20.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
28.67
Best Odds

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

All NFL Player Props

Click the game below to see that game's props.

December 20

Philadelphia PHIat Washington WAS 17:00 ET Green Bay GBat Chicago CHI 20:20 ET

December 21

Buffalo BUFat Cleveland CLE 13:00 ET Tampa Bay TBat Carolina CAR 13:00 ET L.A. Chargers LACat Dallas DAL 13:00 ET N.Y. Jets NYJat New Orleans NO 13:00 ET Minnesota MINat N.Y. Giants NYG 13:00 ET Kansas City KCat Tennessee TEN 13:00 ET Cincinnati CINat Miami MIA 13:00 ET Jacksonville JACat Denver DEN 16:05 ET Atlanta ATLat Arizona ARI 16:05 ET Las Vegas LVat Houston HOU 16:25 ET Pittsburgh PITat Detroit DET 16:25 ET New England NEat Baltimore BAL 20:20 ET

December 22

San Francisco SFat Indianapolis IND 20:15 ET
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