NFL Player Props and Best Projections

The Lions are a heavy 10.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script. With a 41.9% rate of running the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 10th-most run-oriented offense in football has been the Detroit Lions. Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are projected by the projections to call 65.2 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week. The New York Giants defense owns the worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up 5.73 adjusted yards-per-carry. The New York Giants safeties grade out as the 32nd-worst collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

Right now, the 2nd-most run-heavy team in the NFL (44.0% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Falcons. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 133.4 total plays run: the most among all games this week. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, New Orleans's unit has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 6th-worst in the league. in the league.

This week's spread implies a rushing game script for the Rams, who are favored by 6.5 points. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are predicted by the model to call 65.4 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number among all teams this week. When it comes to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Tampa Bay's collection of DEs has been terrible this year, ranking as the 7th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to run the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The model projects Rhamondre Stevenson to total 3.1 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 76th percentile when it comes to RBs. After accruing -3.0 air yards per game last year, Rhamondre Stevenson has shown good development this year, now sitting at 10.0 per game. Rhamondre Stevenson's 16.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 86th percentile for RBs. The Bengals defense has conceded the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (46.0) versus running backs this year.

A throwing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6.5-point underdog in this game. The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop. Opposing teams have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Rams defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.

This game's spread implies an extreme rushing game script for the Seahawks, who are a heavy favorite by 13.5 points. The leading projections forecast the Seattle Seahawks as the most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 51.1% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Sam Darnold's 6.90 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season signifies a noteable gain in his rushing proficiency over last season's 5.20 rate. The Tennessee Titans defense owns the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding 5.19 adjusted yards-per-carry.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Browns being a -4-point underdog in this week's contest. The Browns have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 60.5 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. Jerry Jeudy has run a route on 91.6% of his offense's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 87th percentile among wideouts. The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has conceded the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.9%) versus wide receivers this year (69.9%).

A rushing game script is indicated by the Raiders being a 4-point favorite in this week's contest.

With a 6.5-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their typical approach. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the 49ers to run on 45.7% of their plays: the 6th-greatest clip on the slate this week. As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Carolina's unit has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 5th-worst in football. in football.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Browns being a -4-point underdog in this week's contest. The Browns have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 60.5 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The Las Vegas Raiders safeties project as the 4th-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

The Cincinnati Bengals will be starting backup quarterback Joe Flacco in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. This week's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Bengals, who are huge -8-point underdogs. The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 68.5% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Noah Fant's 94.5% Adjusted Catch% this season conveys a significant progression in his receiving prowess over last season's 76.7% rate. This year, the porous New England Patriots defense has been torched for a massive 62.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the 8th-worst in the league.

Right now, the 10th-most pass-centric offense in football (61.9% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Jacksonville Jaguars. The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics. The most plays in the league have been run by the Jaguars this year (a colossal 61.5 per game on average). The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline. The Arizona Cardinals defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.8 per game) this year.

At the moment, the 9th-most pass-focused offense in the league (62.1% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Raiders. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline. The Cleveland Browns pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency versus wide receivers this year, yielding 8.79 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-most in the NFL.

The Cincinnati Bengals will be starting backup quarterback Joe Flacco in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. This week's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Bengals, who are huge -7-point underdogs. The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 68.4% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see 130.8 total plays run: the 3rd-highest number out of all the games this week. This year, the feeble New England Patriots defense has allowed the 8th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing WRs: a massive 8.77 yards.

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are projected by the projections to call 65.2 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline. This week, Jahmyr Gibbs is projected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 96th percentile among running backs with 5.6 targets. With a sizeable 15.2% Target Rate (97th percentile) this year, Jahmyr Gibbs rates as one of the pass-game running backs with the most usage in football. Jahmyr Gibbs ranks as one of the top pass-game running backs this year, averaging a stellar 31.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 97th percentile.

Right now, the 10th-most pass-centric offense in football (61.9% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Jacksonville Jaguars. The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics. The most plays in the league have been run by the Jaguars this year (a colossal 61.5 per game on average). The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline. The Arizona Cardinals defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.8 per game) this year.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Browns being a -4-point underdog in this week's contest. The Browns have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 60.5 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The Las Vegas Raiders safeties project as the 4th-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are projected by the projections to call 65.2 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline. Jared Goff grades out as one of the most on-target QBs in football this year with an excellent 70.3% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 94th percentile. Jared Goff comes in as one of the most efficient QBs in the NFL this year, averaging a fantastic 8.14 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the 88th percentile. This year, the weak New York Giants defense has been torched for a monstrous 246.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing QBs: the 9th-worst in the NFL.

At the moment, the 9th-most pass-focused offense in the league (62.1% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Raiders. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.

The Cincinnati Bengals will be starting backup quarterback Joe Flacco in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. This week's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Bengals, who are huge -7-point underdogs. The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 68.4% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see 130.8 total plays run: the 3rd-highest number out of all the games this week. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 7th-highest rate in the league against the Patriots defense this year (73.4% Adjusted Completion%).

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Arizona Cardinals have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 61.1 plays per game. The predictive model expects Bam Knight to accrue 14.4 rush attempts this week, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile among RBs. Our trusted projections expect Bam Knight to be a much smaller part of his offense's ground game this week (9.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (37.9% in games he has played).

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Titans being a big -13.5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Titans to pass on 61.3% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest rate on the slate this week. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (39.5 per game) this year. The Seahawks defense has yielded the 9th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (61.0) vs. tight ends this year.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (37.4 per game) this year. Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in football (271.0 per game) against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year. The Cowboys pass defense has shown poor efficiency this year, allowing 8.90 adjusted yards-per-target: the most in football. As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Dallas's safety corps has been dreadful this year, projecting as the 3rd-worst in the league.

This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Eagles, who are favored by 3.5 points. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to run on 46.7% of their downs: the 4th-highest clip among all teams this week. The projections expect Jalen Hurts to total 9.0 carries this week, on balance: the most out of all QBs. While Jalen Hurts has accounted for 23.1% of his team's run game usage in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Philadelphia's run game in this week's game at 30.1%. This year, the poor Cowboys run defense has allowed a whopping 137.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 6th-worst in the league.

The Patriots are a heavy 7-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script. Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots as the 3rd-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 46.8% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to run the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. This year, the deficient Bengals run defense has been gouged for a massive 166.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the most in the NFL. The Bengals linebackers project as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

The projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to be the 7th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are predicted by the model to call 65.4 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number among all teams this week. Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume. Kyren Williams has run a route on 55.8% of his offense's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs. This year, the poor Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has allowed a staggering 49.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing running backs: the most in the NFL.

The model projects Daniel Jones to earn 4.9 carries this week, on average: the 6th-most out of all QBs.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 133.4 total plays run: the most among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. This week, Darnell Mooney is predicted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 90th percentile when it comes to WRs with 8.5 targets. The model projects Darnell Mooney to be much more involved in his offense's pass game in this week's contest (25.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (19.1% in games he has played). Darnell Mooney has compiled significantly more air yards this year (84.0 per game) than he did last year (73.0 per game).

The leading projections forecast Jauan Jennings to earn 7.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (37.4 per game) this year. In this week's game, Dallas Goedert is predicted by the projections to rank in the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.2 targets. With a sizeable 20.6% Target Share (97th percentile) this year, Dallas Goedert ranks among the TEs with the highest volume in football. As it relates to air yards, Dallas Goedert grades out in the towering 93rd percentile among tight ends this year, averaging a staggering 42.0 per game.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 133.4 total plays run: the most among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. In regards to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Falcons ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year. This year, the feeble New Orleans Saints defense has allowed a whopping 73.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 9th-biggest rate in football.

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are projected by the projections to call 65.2 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline. The model projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to accumulate 10.6 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to WRs. After accruing 68.0 air yards per game last year, Amon-Ra St. Brown has shown good development this year, now averaging 80.0 per game. This year, the poor Giants defense has surrendered a whopping 163.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wideouts: the 7th-most in football.