The Commanders may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be rolling out backup QB Marcus Mariota. Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s 18.8% Route Participation% this season conveys a material gain in his pass game usage over last season's 6.6% mark. Chris Rodriguez Jr. has put up a colossal 1.0 air yards per game this year: 80th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage). This year, the feeble Giants pass defense has yielded a monstrous 85.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 7th-largest rate in the league. The New York Giants safeties project as the 9th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in defending receivers.
The Colts may pass less in this week's contest (and call more carries) given that they be rolling out backup QB Philip Rivers. The Colts are a heavy 13.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script. The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. In this week's contest, Philip Rivers is projected by the projections to total the 9th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 35.2. The Seahawks defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (39.0 per game) this year.
The Chargers are a 6-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script. The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 10th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.6 plays per game. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) generally prompt better passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower rush volume.
The Chargers are a 6-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script. The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 10th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.6 plays per game. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) generally prompt better passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower rush volume. The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (66.9%) versus wideouts this year (66.9%).
A rushing game script is implied by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (134 per game) against the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
The Rams are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have 134.9 plays on offense run: the 4th-highest number among all games this week.
The model projects the New York Giants as the 2nd-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 51.7% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Giants are forecasted by the projection model to run 65.8 plays on offense in this game: the 10th-highest number on the slate this week. The 6th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the New York Giants this year (a staggering 60.2 per game on average). Jaxson Dart has generated 34.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in football when it comes to QBs (94th percentile). Opposing teams have rushed for the 4th-most adjusted yards in the league (136 per game) vs. the Commanders defense this year.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by our trusted projection set to call 67.7 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week. Jared Goff's 6.22 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year conveys a substantial boost in his rushing talent over last year's 3.58 rate.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.4 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Broncos have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.5 plays per game.
The Colts may pass less in this week's contest (and call more carries) given that they be rolling out backup QB Philip Rivers. The Colts are a heavy 13.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script. The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. In this week's contest, Philip Rivers is projected by the projections to total the 9th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 35.2. The Seahawks defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (39.0 per game) this year.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see 135.0 offensive plays called: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week. The 2nd-most plays in football have been run by the Cardinals this year (a staggering 61.5 per game on average). The projections expect Bam Knight to be much less involved in his team's ground game in this week's contest (21.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (41.6% in games he has played).
The Commanders may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be rolling out backup QB Marcus Mariota. The leading projections forecast John Bates to be much more involved in his offense's passing game in this contest (11.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (3.3% in games he has played). John Bates's 79.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this year represents an impressive boost in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 70.2% mark. The New York Giants safeties project as the 9th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in defending receivers.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see 136.7 offensive plays run: the most out of all the games this week. The Bears have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 62.1 plays per game. When it comes to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Bears ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to see 130.4 total plays run: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week. The leading projections forecast Josh Jacobs to garner 17.5 carries in this contest, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among running backs. Josh Jacobs has earned 64.7% of his offense's run game usage this year, placing him in the 94th percentile among RBs. The Denver defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-worst DE corps in the league this year with their run defense.
With a 13.5-point advantage, the Jaguars are heavily favored in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars to run on 47.9% of their plays: the 7th-highest rate among all teams this week. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to see 137.2 plays on offense called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week. The 8th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (a staggering 59.5 per game on average). This year, the shaky Jets run defense has been torched for a colossal 142.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 3rd-worst in the league.
A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -5.5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year. This year, the porous Dallas Cowboys defense has surrendered a colossal 267.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing teams: the 3rd-most in the league.
The Colts may pass less in this week's contest (and call more carries) given that they be rolling out backup QB Philip Rivers. The Colts are a heavy 13.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script. The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The Seahawks defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (39.0 per game) this year. The projections expect Michael Pittman to total 8.1 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Denver Broncos to pass on 61.5% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week. The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.4 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Broncos have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.5 plays per game. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally lead to increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume. Opposing teams have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Packers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Giants to pass on 48.3% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest clip among all teams this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being predicted in this game) generally lead to decreased passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and increased ground volume. Our trusted projections expect Jaxson Dart to throw 29.1 passes this week, on average: the fewest out of all quarterbacks. Jaxson Dart comes in as one of the worst passers in football this year, averaging 157.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 17th percentile.
The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.6% pass rate. The predictive model expects the Cowboys offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.40 seconds per snap. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Jake Ferguson has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (77.9% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (67.0%). The leading projections forecast Jake Ferguson to garner 7.2 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 96th percentile among TEs.
The predictive model expects the New York Jets to run the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.7 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being projected in this game) usually prompt lessened passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and increased rush volume. The projections expect Breece Hall to total 19.9 carries in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 95th percentile when it comes to RBs. While Breece Hall has been responsible for 58.9% of his team's rush attempts in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much bigger part of New York's ground game in this game at 73.3%. With an exceptional record of 58.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (84th percentile), Breece Hall places among the top pure runners in the NFL this year.
At the moment, the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Cincinnati Bengals. While Joe Burrow has accounted for 6.1% of his team's rush attempts in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Cincinnati's running game this week at 11.7%.
This game's spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Eagles, who are a heavy favorite by 12.5 points. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Eagles to run on 52.0% of their downs: the highest frequency on the slate this week. The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness. Our trusted projections expect Jalen Hurts to notch 9.1 carries this week, on balance: the most out of all QBs. Accounting for 23.2% of his team's rushing play calls this year (95th percentile among QBs), Jalen Hurts's mobility marks him as a dangerous threat with his legs.
Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being called for in this game) generally cause worse passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and increased rush volume.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, New Orleans's group of safeties has been awful this year, profiling as the 8th-worst in the league.
This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Lions, who are -6-point underdogs. The leading projections forecast the Lions to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by our trusted projection set to call 67.7 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week. Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being called for in this game) usually mean better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower ground volume. Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Rams defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
The projections expect Jonathan Taylor to accrue 20.9 carries this week, on balance, placing him in the 98th percentile among RBs. Jonathan Taylor has garnered 82.5% of his offense's rushing play calls this year, putting him in the 100th percentile among RBs. With a fantastic record of 101.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (100th percentile), Jonathan Taylor places among the leading running backs in the league this year. Jonathan Taylor's rushing effectiveness has gotten better this year, averaging 5.74 adjusted yards-per-carry vs just 4.61 rate last year. Jonathan Taylor has made strides in picking up extra ground yardage this season, notching 3.94 yards-after-contact vs a 2.68 mark last season.
This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Lions, who are -6-point underdogs. The leading projections forecast the Lions to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by our trusted projection set to call 67.7 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week. Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being called for in this game) usually mean better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower ground volume. Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Rams defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
Right now, the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (62.4% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Houston Texans. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.0 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.3 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. The model projects C.J. Stroud to attempt 36.0 passes in this contest, on average: the 8th-most out of all QBs.
An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Browns being a huge -7.5-point underdog in this week's contest. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 137.8 offensive plays run: the most among all games this week. The Chicago Bears linebackers project as the 2nd-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to rushing the passer.
Right now, the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (62.4% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Houston Texans. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.0 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.3 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Arizona's unit has been atrocious this year, projecting as the 6th-worst in football.
The opposing side have run for the 5th-most adjusted yards in football (134 per game) against the Bills defense this year. The Bills safeties project as the 29th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Texans are a giant 10-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.0 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.3 per game on average). C.J. Stroud's running efficiency (6.39 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (76th percentile when it comes to QBs). This year, the formidable Arizona Cardinals run defense has allowed a puny 5.21 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 30th-best rate in football.
The projections expect Tony Pollard to total 15.5 rush attempts this week, on balance, putting him in the 81st percentile when it comes to running backs. Out of all RBs, Tony Pollard ranks in the 95th percentile for rush attempts this year, taking on 66.1% of the workload in his offense's rushing attack. The San Francisco 49ers defensive tackles profile as the worst group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
A rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game. The predictive model expects the Cowboys offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.40 seconds per snap. Dak Prescott's 12.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season represents a noteworthy improvement in his rushing talent over last season's 6.0 figure. Dak Prescott's 5.33 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year illustrates a noteworthy gain in his rushing prowess over last year's 4.48 figure.
At the moment, the 8th-most run-focused offense in football (41.9% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Browns. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 137.8 offensive plays run: the most among all games this week. The Chicago Bears defense has produced the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing ground games this year, surrendering 5.16 adjusted yards-per-carry. The Bears defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-worst DT corps in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.
Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being called for in this game) generally cause worse passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and increased rush volume. While Kenny Pickett has accounted for 4.3% of his offense's carries in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Las Vegas's running game this week at 14.7%.
This game's spread implies a running game script for the Panthers, who are favored by 3 points. At the moment, the 5th-most run-oriented team in the NFL (42.8% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Panthers. Bryce Young's ground efficiency (6.40 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (79th percentile among quarterbacks). This year, the poor New Orleans Saints run defense has been gouged for a whopping 132.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the 7th-most in football.
Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 10th-most run-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 41.1% run rate.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, New Orleans's group of safeties has been awful this year, profiling as the 8th-worst in the league.
The predictive model expects the New York Jets to run the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.7 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being projected in this game) usually prompt lessened passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and increased rush volume.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Denver Broncos to pass on 61.5% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week. The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.4 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Broncos have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.5 plays per game. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally lead to increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume. Opposing teams have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Packers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
The Titans are a massive 12.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Tennessee Titans to pass on 60.9% of their plays: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game against the 49ers defense this year: 9th-most in football. The 49ers pass defense has conceded the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67.4%) versus WRs this year (67.4%). The San Francisco 49ers safeties rank as the 5th-worst group of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, New Orleans's group of safeties has been awful this year, profiling as the 8th-worst in the league.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has produced the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding 5.15 adjusted yards-per-carry. As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Dallas's group of LBs has been lousy this year, profiling as the worst in football. in football.
A rushing game script is implied by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. In this week's contest, Jaylen Warren is projected by the predictive model to position himself in the 83rd percentile when it comes to RBs with 15.6 carries. Jaylen Warren has been a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack this season (62.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (25.6%). Jaylen Warren has rushed for substantially more adjusted yards per game (50.0) this season than he did last season (33.0). Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (134 per game) against the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
With a 12.5-point advantage, the 49ers are a massive favorite this week, indicating much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach. The predictive model expects the 49ers to be the 6th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 48.1% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The Tennessee Titans defense owns the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing ground games this year, giving up 4.97 adjusted yards-per-carry.
The Ravens are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a running game script. The leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 49.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The Baltimore Ravens offense has played at the 5th-most sluggish tempo in football (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 30.08 seconds per snap. Our trusted projections expect Lamar Jackson to throw 30.2 passes in this contest, on balance: the 4th-fewest among all quarterbacks. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Ravens grades out as the 8th-worst in football this year.
A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -5.5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year. With an extraordinary 96.6% Route% (99th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson places among the wide receivers with the most usage in football.
The Colts may pass less in this week's contest (and call more carries) given that they be rolling out backup QB Philip Rivers. The Colts are a heavy 13.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script. The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The Seahawks defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (39.0 per game) this year. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Colts profiles as the best in the NFL this year.
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