NFL Player Props and Best Projections

Opposing teams have played at the 9th-quickest pace in football (context-neutralized) against the San Francisco 49ers defense last year, averaging 28.36 seconds per snap.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense last year: 6th-most in football.. The model projects Jake Tonges to be a more integral piece of his team's passing game near the goal line in this contest (14.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been last year (7.5% in games he has played).. Jake Tonges grades out as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league among TEs, catching an outstanding 79.6% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 75th percentile.. With an excellent rate of 0.50 per game through the air (96th percentile), Jake Tonges has been among the top receiving TD-scorers in the league when it comes to tight ends last year.

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 59.4% of their chances: the 8th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.. The projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.0 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. In this game, Tua Tagovailoa is forecasted by the projection model to have the 7th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 35.8. . Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense last year: 5th-most in the league.

Opposing offenses have rushed for the 6th-most adjusted yards in the league (136 per game) against the Dolphins defense last year.

The Steelers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a running game script.. The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to call the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.4 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. Last year, the feeble Atlanta Falcons run defense has given up a whopping 127.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the 10th-most in football.

Los Angeles's passing stats last year may be artificially inflated (and running stats reduced) as a result of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some regression with windier weather in this game.. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, San Francisco's unit has been atrocious last year, grading out as the 4th-worst in football. in football.

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The Houston Texans offense has played at the 10th-fastest tempo in football (context-neutralized) last year, averaging 28.18 seconds per snap.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The predictive model expects C.J. Stroud to throw 36.6 passes this week, on balance: the 5th-most among all QBs.. Last year, the deficient Bills defense has surrendered the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing teams: a staggering 0.00 YAC.

Our trusted projections expect the Tennessee Titans as the 7th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 44.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Last year, the anemic Jets run defense has given up a whopping 144.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 2nd-worst in football.. The Jets defensive tackles rank as the 8th-worst unit in football last year with their run defense.

The Houston Texans offense has played at the 10th-fastest tempo in football (context-neutralized) last year, averaging 28.18 seconds per snap.. C.J. Stroud's running efficiency (7.38 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league last year (97th percentile when it comes to QBs).. The Buffalo Bills defense has had the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing running games last year, yielding 5.20 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Green Bay Packers to pass on 59.3% of their plays: the 7th-greatest clip on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Jordan Love has attempted 29.1 passes per game last year, grading out in the 75th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.. Jordan Love rates as one of the best QBs in the NFL last year, averaging an exceptional 208.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 80th percentile.. The Minnesota Vikings defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year: the most in the league.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. Opposing offenses have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Colts defense last year: 2nd-most in football.. Derrick Henry has posted a massive 1.0 air yards per game last year: 78th percentile among RBs. (This may not seem like very many, but most RBs average negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. With an excellent 7.6 adjusted yards per target (89th percentile) last year, Derrick Henry places as one of the top running backs in the pass game in the league.. The Colts pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing running backs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch last year: the most in the NFL.

Our trusted projections expect the Jets to be the 5th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 45.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. With a terrific record of 2.56 yards-after-contact (90th percentile), Geno Smith ranks as one of the leading rushing QBs in the league last year.. The Tennessee Titans defense has had the 10th-worst efficiency against opposing run games last year, allowing 4.76 adjusted yards-per-carry.. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Tennessee's unit has been very bad last year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.

A passing game script is suggested by the Colts being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.. Opposing offenses have played at the 10th-quickest tempo in football (context-neutralized) against the Colts defense last year, averaging 28.48 seconds per snap.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.. The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a well-known pass funnel last year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (36.2 per game) last year.. Alec Pierce has run a route on 89.2% of his offense's dropbacks last year, ranking him in the 85th percentile among wideouts.

Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 9th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 59.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. In this game, Kyler Murray is anticipated by the projection model to average the 9th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 35.5. . Opposing offenses have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Packers defense last year: 10th-most in the NFL.. Last year, the poor Packers defense has been gouged for the most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing squads: a monstrous 0.00 YAC.

At a massive 30.36 seconds per snap, the Baltimore Ravens offense rates as the 3rd-most sluggish paced in football (adjusted for context) last year.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. Last year, the feeble Colts run defense has yielded a whopping 4.11 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing teams: the 27th-largest rate in football.

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected by the projection model to run 65.5 total plays in this game: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.. In averaging a whopping 4.0 rush attempts per game last year, Patrick Mahomes stands among the top QBs in the league (82nd percentile) when talking about rushing usage.. Patrick Mahomes isn't afraid to be involved in the run game, accounting for 17.1% of his offense's carries last year, putting him in the 78th percentile when it comes to QBs.. With a terrific tally of 23.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (85th percentile), Patrick Mahomes rates among the top running quarterbacks in the league last year.

Opposing offenses have played at the 10th-quickest tempo in football (context-neutralized) against the Colts defense last year, averaging 28.48 seconds per snap.

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In this week's game, Joe Burrow is anticipated by the model to average the most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 38.1. . Joe Burrow ranks as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in football last year with an excellent 69.8% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 88th percentile.. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 7th-most adjusted yards in football (232.0 per game) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense last year.. Last year, the feeble Buccaneers defense has been gouged for the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing offenses: a colossal 0.00 YAC.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the projection model to run 65.2 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. Buffalo's passing stats last year may be artificially too low (and rushing stats propped up a bit) in light of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some regression with improved conditions this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Josh Allen comes in as one of the leading passers in the league last year, averaging an exceptional 212.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.. Josh Allen profiles as one of the most on-target QBs in the league last year with an impressive 71.2% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 97th percentile.

This week's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Browns, who are enormous -7-point underdogs.. The predictive model expects the Browns to call the 9th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense last year: most in the league.. Last year, the weak Jaguars defense has conceded the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing squads: a monstrous 0.00 YAC.

The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to be the most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 49.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. In this week's game, De'Von Achane is projected by the projections to land in the 96th percentile when it comes to RBs with 18.5 carries.. De'Von Achane has received 62.9% of his team's carries last year, putting him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.. De'Von Achane has generated 68.0 adjusted rushing yards per game last year, one of the largest marks in the NFL when it comes to running backs (96th percentile).. With an impressive rate of 5.16 adjusted yards per carry (90th percentile), De'Von Achane stands as one of the leading pure runners in football last year.

This week's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Browns, who are enormous -7-point underdogs.. At a mere 27.78 seconds per play, the Cleveland Browns offense has been the 3rd-quickest paced in the league (in a neutral context) last year.. Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense last year: most in the league.. Last year, the anemic Jacksonville Jaguars defense has yielded a monstrous 56.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing TEs: the 8th-most in football.. Last year, the poor Jacksonville Jaguars defense has surrendered the most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing tight ends: a massive 0.00 YAC.

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 59.4% of their chances: the 8th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.. The projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.0 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense last year: 5th-most in the league.. In this game, Drake London is predicted by the projection model to position himself in the 97th percentile among wideouts with 10.1 targets.

The Jets will be rolling out backup QB Geno Smith in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.. The Titans pass defense has not been good when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch last year: the most in the NFL.. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Tennessee's unit has been atrocious last year, profiling as the 2nd-worst in the league.

The Cardinals have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL last year, averaging a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.

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The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.

This week's line indicates a running game script for the Cowboys, who are favored by 3 points.. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Cowboys are projected by the predictive model to call 65.2 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. The 2nd-most plays in the league have been run by the Dallas Cowboys last year (a colossal 60.6 per game on average).. Dak Prescott's rushing effectiveness (6.28 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL last year (83rd percentile when it comes to QBs).. Last year, the tough Giants run defense has allowed a meager 5.56 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing offenses: the 32nd-smallest rate in the NFL.

The Raiders may pass less in this game (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Kirk Cousins.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-highest level in the NFL vs. the Dolphins defense last year (74.6% Adjusted Completion%).. The Miami Dolphins defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year: the most in the NFL.

With a 4-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. While Joe Burrow has been responsible for 7.6% of his team's run game usage in games he has played last year, the predictive model expects him to be a much bigger part of Cincinnati's run game this week at 12.8%.. The Tampa Bay defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-worst collection of DTs in the NFL last year when it comes to defending the run.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Green Bay Packers to pass on 59.3% of their plays: the 8th-greatest clip on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. In this game, Christian Watson is predicted by the projections to place in the 85th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.1 targets.. As it relates to air yards, Christian Watson grades out in the towering 95th percentile among wide receivers last year, averaging a colossal 99.0 per game.. Christian Watson's 55.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 87th percentile for wideouts.

With a 8.5-point advantage, the Jaguars are heavily favored in this week's game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach.. Our trusted projections expect the Jaguars as the 7th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 40.7% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The 9th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Jacksonville Jaguars last year (a staggering 58.9 per game on average).. In this week's game, Trevor Lawrence is anticipated by the model to total the 10th-most rush attempts out of all QBs with 5.0. . With a fantastic tally of 19.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (78th percentile), Trevor Lawrence places among the top running quarterbacks in the NFL last year.

Our trusted projections expect the Commanders as the 2nd-most run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 47.0% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackles profile as the 7th-worst unit in football last year in regard to stopping the run.

Last year, the deficient New York Jets defense has allowed the 5th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing wide receivers: a monstrous 8.82 yards.. The New York Jets pass defense has struggled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch last year: the most in football.. When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, New York's CB corps has been terrible last year, ranking as the 8th-worst in the league.

The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 4th-most plays in the league last year, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may decline.. While Charlie Kolar has accounted for 3.3% of his offense's targets in games he has played last year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Los Angeles's passing attack in this game at 9.0%.. Last year, the poor Arizona Cardinals defense has allowed a colossal 62.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 4th-most in the league.. Last year, the anemic Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded the most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing TEs: a staggering 0.00 YAC.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. Opposing offenses have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Colts defense last year: 2nd-most in football.. In this game, Mark Andrews is predicted by the model to rank in the 89th percentile among tight ends with 5.8 targets.. Mark Andrews has totaled a colossal 31.0 air yards per game last year: 82nd percentile among tight ends.. Mark Andrews has been in the 85th percentile for TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) with an impressive 35.8 figure last year.

The Cardinals have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL last year, averaging a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Lions to pass on 59.4% of their opportunities: the 6th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Our trusted projections expect Jahmyr Gibbs to garner 6.3 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs.. With a high 17.8% Target% (97th percentile) last year, Jahmyr Gibbs has been as one of the pass-catching running backs with the most usage in the NFL.

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. Michael Pittman has run a route on 89.1% of his team's dropbacks last year, ranking him in the 84th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. In this contest, Michael Pittman is projected by the model to finish in the 89th percentile among wideouts with 7.6 targets.. Michael Pittman ranks in the 75th percentile among wideouts last year with an astounding 21.3% of his offense's air yards accumulated.

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Falcons, who are -3-point underdogs.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 59.1% of their chances: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.. The projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.2 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense last year: 5th-most in the league.. Kyle Pitts has run a route on 91.4% of his offense's passing plays last year, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

With a 7-point advantage, the Jaguars are heavily favored in this week's game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach.. Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Browns, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 28.6 per game) last year.. Trevor Lawrence rates as one of the least accurate quarterbacks in football last year with a 60.5% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 16th percentile.. Last year, the daunting Browns defense has allowed a feeble 182.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing QBs: the 5th-fewest in football.. The Browns cornerbacks profile as the 8th-best collection of CBs in the league last year in defending pass-catchers.

The Denver Broncos will be forced to utilize backup QB Bo Nix in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 6th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 5th-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.. The Chiefs pass defense has given up the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.4%) vs. WRs last year (67.4%).

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.9% of their chances: the 3rd-highest rate among all teams this week.. Last year, the formidable Denver Broncos defense has conceded a puny 67.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 7th-smallest rate in the league.. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Denver's CB corps has been phenomenal last year, ranking as the 10th-best in football.

A passing game script is suggested by the Colts being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.. Opposing offenses have played at the 10th-quickest tempo in football (context-neutralized) against the Colts defense last year, averaging 28.48 seconds per snap.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.. The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a well-known pass funnel last year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (36.2 per game) last year.. With an exceptional total of 198.0 adjusted passing yards per game (75th percentile), Daniel Jones has been as one of the best QBs in football last year.

Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Opposing offenses have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Packers defense last year: 10th-most in the NFL.. With a remarkable 81.5% Route% (92nd percentile) last year, T.J. Hockenson stands among the tight ends with the most usage in football.. In this week's contest, T.J. Hockenson is predicted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 85th percentile among TEs with 5.3 targets.

The model projects the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The predictive model expects Aaron Rodgers to throw 36.4 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 7th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Aaron Rodgers ranks as one of the most on-target passers in the league last year with an exceptional 66.9% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 75th percentile.. The Atlanta Falcons defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year: the most in football.