NFL Player Props and Best Projections

The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.6% pass rate. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Jake Ferguson has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (77.9% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (67.0%).

A rushing game script is implied by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (134 per game) against the Miami Dolphins defense this year.

The Rams are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have 135.3 plays on offense run: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week.

The Colts may pass less in this week's contest (and call more carries) given that they be rolling out backup QB Riley Leonard. The Colts are a heavy 13.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script. The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The Seahawks defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (39.0 per game) this year. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Colts profiles as the best in the NFL this year.

This week's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Cardinals, who are massive -9.5-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cardinals to pass on 66.4% of their plays: the highest clip on the slate this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see 134.9 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week. The 2nd-most plays in football have been run by the Cardinals this year (a staggering 61.5 per game on average). The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.

Right now, the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (62.4% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Houston Texans. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are expected by the projection model to call 67.9 total plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.3 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Arizona's unit has been atrocious this year, projecting as the 6th-worst in football.

The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics. Jared Goff's 6.22 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year conveys a substantial boost in his rushing talent over last year's 3.58 rate.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see 134.9 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week. The 2nd-most plays in football have been run by the Cardinals this year (a staggering 61.5 per game on average). The projections expect Bam Knight to be much less involved in his team's ground game in this week's contest (21.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (41.6% in games he has played).

The Texans are a giant 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are expected by the projection model to call 67.9 total plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.3 per game on average). C.J. Stroud's running efficiency (6.39 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (76th percentile when it comes to QBs). This year, the formidable Arizona Cardinals run defense has allowed a puny 5.21 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 30th-best rate in football.

With a 13.5-point advantage, the Jaguars are heavily favored in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars to run on 47.0% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate among all teams this week. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to see 136.5 plays on offense called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week. The 8th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (a staggering 59.5 per game on average). This year, the shaky Jets run defense has been torched for a colossal 142.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 3rd-worst in the league.

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Browns being a huge -7.5-point underdog in this week's contest. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 136.7 offensive plays run: the most among all games this week. The Chicago Bears linebackers project as the 2nd-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

This game's spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Eagles, who are a heavy favorite by 12.5 points. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Eagles to run on 51.2% of their downs: the highest frequency on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect Jalen Hurts to notch 8.9 carries this week, on balance: the most out of all QBs. Accounting for 23.2% of his team's rushing play calls this year (95th percentile among QBs), Jalen Hurts's mobility marks him as a dangerous threat with his legs. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Las Vegas's DT corps has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 3rd-worst in football. in football.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Denver Broncos to pass on 61.8% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week. The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Broncos have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.5 plays per game. Opposing teams have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Packers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL. The Broncos offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

With a 12.5-point advantage, the 49ers are a massive favorite this week, indicating much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach. The predictive model expects the 49ers to be the 6th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 48.0% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The Tennessee Titans defense owns the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing ground games this year, giving up 4.97 adjusted yards-per-carry.

The Titans are a massive 12.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Tennessee Titans to pass on 60.9% of their plays: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game against the 49ers defense this year: 9th-most in football. The 49ers pass defense has conceded the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67.4%) versus WRs this year (67.4%). The San Francisco 49ers safeties rank as the 5th-worst group of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see 134.9 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week. The 2nd-most plays in football have been run by the Cardinals this year (a staggering 61.5 per game on average). After comprising 5.6% of his team's rush attempts last year, Jacoby Brissett has been more involved in the rushing attack this year, currently accounting for 13.7%. With an impressive tally of 2.22 yards-after-contact (82nd percentile), Jacoby Brissett rates among the best rushing QBs in football this year.

At the moment, the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Cincinnati Bengals. While Joe Burrow has accounted for 6.1% of his team's rush attempts in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Cincinnati's running game this week at 11.7%.

A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -5.5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year. This year, the porous Dallas Cowboys defense has surrendered a colossal 267.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing teams: the 3rd-most in the league.

This game's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Bears, who are a heavy favorite by 7.5 points. The projections expect the Chicago Bears as the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 50.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Opposing teams teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (just 30.5 per game) this year. This year, the fierce Browns defense has surrendered a puny 46.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 8th-fewest in football. This year, the daunting Browns defense has surrendered a measly 71.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 9th-lowest rate in the league.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see 136.7 offensive plays run: the most out of all the games this week. The Bears have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 62.1 plays per game. When it comes to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Bears ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, New Orleans's group of safeties has been awful this year, profiling as the 8th-worst in the league.

This week's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Cardinals, who are massive -9.5-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cardinals to pass on 66.4% of their plays: the highest clip on the slate this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see 134.9 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week. The 2nd-most plays in football have been run by the Cardinals this year (a staggering 61.5 per game on average). The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.

Right now, the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (62.4% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Houston Texans. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are expected by the projection model to call 67.9 total plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.3 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. The model projects C.J. Stroud to attempt 35.9 passes in this contest, on average: the 9th-most out of all QBs.

This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Lions, who are -6-point underdogs. The leading projections forecast the Lions to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics. Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being called for in this game) usually mean better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower ground volume. Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Rams defense this year: 8th-most in the league.

The Colts may pass less in this week's contest (and call more carries) given that they be rolling out backup QB Riley Leonard. The Colts are a heavy 13.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script. The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The Seahawks defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (39.0 per game) this year. The projections expect Michael Pittman to total 7.6 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.

A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -5.5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year. With an extraordinary 96.6% Route% (99th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson places among the wide receivers with the most usage in football.

This game's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Bears, who are a heavy favorite by 7.5 points. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bears to run on 49.3% of their downs: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see 136.7 offensive plays run: the most out of all the games this week. The Bears have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 62.1 plays per game.

The Chargers are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script. The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.5% pass rate. The Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.6 plays per game. The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (66.9%) versus wideouts this year (66.9%).

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Carolina Panthers to run on 46.1% of their downs: the 10th-greatest rate among all teams this week. Bryce Young's ground efficiency (6.40 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (79th percentile among quarterbacks). This year, the poor New Orleans Saints run defense has been gouged for a whopping 132.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the 7th-most in football.

The projections expect Tony Pollard to total 15.4 rush attempts this week, on balance, putting him in the 81st percentile when it comes to running backs. Out of all RBs, Tony Pollard ranks in the 95th percentile for rush attempts this year, taking on 66.1% of the workload in his offense's rushing attack. The San Francisco 49ers defensive tackles profile as the worst group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.