NFL Player Props and Best Projections

The Washington Commanders will be forced to start backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan. At the moment, the 10th-fastest paced offense in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Washington Commanders. As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Philadelphia's collection of safeties has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the worst in the league.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to see 134.9 plays on offense run: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game versus the Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football. With a high 42.9% Red Zone Target Rate (100th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown has been as one of the wide receivers with the biggest workloads near the end zone in football. After accumulating 68.0 air yards per game last season, Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen a big uptick this season, currently pacing 87.0 per game.

The leading projections forecast the Denver Broncos to be the 9th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 59.1% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. At the moment, the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL in the red zone (60.0% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Broncos. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by the projection model to run 68.3 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week. The Denver Broncos have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 59.4 plays per game. The Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in football (39.9 per game) this year.

A passing game script is implied by the Patriots being a -3-point underdog in this game. At the moment, the 5th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (64.1% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the New England Patriots. Opposing offenses have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL. The New England offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board. The Ravens defense has allowed the 10th-most receiving TDs in football to running backs: 0.21 per game this year.

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 2nd-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.24 seconds per play. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer. With an extraordinary 26.1% Red Zone Target Share (94th percentile) this year, Nico Collins rates as one of the wideouts with the most usage near the end zone in the NFL. As it relates to air yards, Nico Collins ranks in the towering 95th percentile among wide receivers this year, totaling a monstrous 103.0 per game. Nico Collins grades out in the 89th percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a remarkable 0.40 per game.

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 2nd-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.24 seconds per play. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.5 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics. James Cook has posted a whopping 1.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among RBs. (That may not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage). James Cook's 13.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 77th percentile for running backs. The Bills offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board. James Cook's 94.4% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a noteworthy growth in his receiving ability over last year's 84.7% figure.

The Washington Commanders will be forced to start backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan. At the moment, the 10th-fastest paced offense in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Washington Commanders. Chris Rodriguez Jr. has been more involved as a potential target this season (18.8% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (6.6%). This year, the feeble Eagles defense has conceded a whopping 40.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing RBs: the 5th-most in the league.

Right now, the 2nd-most run-heavy team in the league (44.3% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Colts. The San Francisco defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-worst group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to be the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.99 seconds per snap. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Seattle's DT corps has been atrocious this year, projecting as the 8th-worst in football. in football.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.5 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Bills offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board. Josh Allen's 71.3% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a material growth in his throwing accuracy over last year's 64.7% figure. With an excellent ratio of 1.56 per game (90th percentile), Josh Allen ranks among the best touchdown passers in football this year. This year, the strong Browns run defense has allowed a paltry 0.79 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing offenses: the 10th-best rate in football.

This game's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Lions, who are a massive favorite by 7 points. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to see 134.9 plays on offense run: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week. Jared Goff's 6.24 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season marks a noteable improvement in his running ability over last season's 3.58 rate.

This week's line implies a throwing game script for the Dolphins, who are -3-point underdogs. Our trusted projections expect Darren Waller to earn 4.3 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 75th percentile among tight ends. Darren Waller has accumulated a massive 45.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to tight ends. With an excellent 37.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (81st percentile) this year, Darren Waller has been among the top pass-game TEs in the NFL. The Bengals defense has conceded the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (92.0) versus tight ends this year.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jets to run on 45.6% of their chances: the 8th-greatest clip on the slate this week. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. In this contest, Breece Hall is expected by the projections to place in the 98th percentile when it comes to running backs with 20.8 carries. Breece Hall has averaged 52.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among RBs (85th percentile). Opposing teams have run for the 8th-most adjusted yards in football (131 per game) vs. the Saints defense this year.

At a -14-point disadvantage, the Raiders are huge underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Raiders to pass on 66.6% of their opportunities: the greatest frequency on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The Colts are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline. The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year. The leading projections forecast Michael Pittman to total 7.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers. Michael Pittman has been an integral part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 23.8% this year, which ranks in the 85th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

At a -14-point disadvantage, the Raiders are huge underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Raiders to pass on 66.6% of their opportunities: the greatest frequency on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The leading projections forecast Geno Smith to throw 38.6 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-most among all QBs.

The Colts are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline. The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year. When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Colts ranks as the best in football this year. When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, San Francisco's unit has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in the NFL.

Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.5 plays per game. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. The Cowboys defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (36.9 per game) this year. The model projects Keenan Allen to notch 8.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.5 plays per game. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. The Cowboys defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.9 per game) this year. This year, the deficient Dallas Cowboys pass defense has conceded a monstrous 69.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 3rd-worst rate in the league.

The Steelers are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script. The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.9 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. In this game, Darnell Washington is anticipated by our trusted projection set to slot into the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.1 targets.

A running game script is suggested by the 49ers being a 6-point favorite in this week's game. The San Francisco 49ers have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.4 plays per game. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Indianapolis's collection of DTs has been very bad this year, ranking as the 9th-worst in the league. in the league.

The Steelers are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script. The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.9 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The predictive model expects Jaylen Warren to garner 4.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.

The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.5 plays per game. The predictive model expects Justin Herbert to accumulate 4.9 carries in this game, on balance: the 8th-most among all quarterbacks. Justin Herbert has been a more important option in his team's rushing attack this season (16.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (11.4%). Justin Herbert has rushed for quite a few more yards per game (27.0) this season than he did last season (19.0). This year, the daunting Dallas Cowboys run defense has surrendered a measly 4.99 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing ground game: the 27th-smallest rate in football.

The New York Jets may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to utilize backup quarterback Brady Cook. At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off. The predictive model expects Jeremy Ruckert to be much more involved in his team's pass game in this week's contest (12.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (6.4% in games he has played).

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cardinals to pass on 63.7% of their downs: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have 136.1 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week. The 2nd-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Arizona Cardinals this year (a monstrous 61.3 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop. The projections expect Michael Wilson to accumulate 10.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.

A running game script is suggested by the Saints being a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to run on 46.8% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest clip among all teams this week. The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 59.1 plays per game. Opposing squads have rushed for the 4th-most adjusted yards in the league (140 per game) versus the New York Jets defense this year.

A throwing game script is indicated by the Giants being a -3-point underdog this week. Our trusted projections expect the Giants to run the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The 6th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the New York Giants this year (a staggering 60.4 per game on average). When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Giants ranks as the 8th-best in football this year.

The leading projections forecast the Texans to be the 2nd-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.24 seconds per play. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer. C.J. Stroud's 64.7% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a noteable improvement in his passing precision over last year's 61.0% figure. This year, the porous Las Vegas Raiders defense has allowed a staggering 73.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 7th-highest rate in the NFL. This year, the anemic Raiders defense has been torched for the 7th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing offenses: a monstrous 7.96 yards.

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.3% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.6 plays per game. Rashee Rice has gone out for fewer passes this season (76.7% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (65.1%). In this contest, Rashee Rice is forecasted by the model to secure a spot in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 9.7 targets. This year, the deficient Titans pass defense has allowed a staggering 71.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the worst rate in the NFL.

The Steelers are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script. The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.9 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. This year, the shaky Lions defense has yielded a colossal 246.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the 8th-most in the league.

The Colts are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline. The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.9 per game) this year. When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Colts ranks as the best in football this year. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 10th-highest rate in football vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year (72.6% Adjusted Completion%).

At a -14-point disadvantage, the Raiders are huge underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Raiders to pass on 66.6% of their opportunities: the greatest frequency on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to see 136.1 total plays run: the most out of all the games this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The leading projections forecast Kirk Cousins to throw 36.3 passes this week, on balance: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks. The Atlanta O-line ranks as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack metrics across the board. As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Arizona's safety corps has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in the league.