NFL Player Props and Best Projections

This game's line implies a rushing game script for the Bears, who are favored by 3 points. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 53.8% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week. This year, the fierce Detroit Lions defense has allowed a mere 66.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 4th-best rate in football. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Detroit's group of safeties has been great this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have 132.6 offensive plays called: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week. The Cardinals have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 60.2 plays per game. Jacoby Brissett has been a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this year (12.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (5.6%). With an outstanding total of 2.07 yards-after-contact (75th percentile), Jacoby Brissett places as one of the leading rushing QBs in the NFL this year.

The Kansas City Chiefs may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup quarterback Chris Oladokun. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 65.7% pass rate. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down. The Kansas City O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board. This year, the deficient Las Vegas Raiders defense has surrendered a monstrous 73.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 6th-biggest rate in the NFL.

The Steelers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.1 per game) this year. In regards to air yards, Derrick Henry grades out in the towering 78th percentile among RBs this year, totaling an impressive 1.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards). The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has surrendered the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (85.6%) versus RBs this year (85.6%). The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties rank as the 9th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

The projections expect the Rams to be the 4th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.6 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop. In this contest, Matthew Stafford is predicted by our trusted projection set to have the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 38.0. With a fantastic tally of 256.0 adjusted passing yards per game (95th percentile), Matthew Stafford rates among the leading quarterbacks in the league this year.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to see 137.3 offensive plays run: the most among all games this week. The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 59.2 plays per game. This year, the weak Falcons run defense has been torched for a monstrous 128.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 10th-most in football. The Atlanta Falcons defensive tackles profile as the worst DT corps in football this year in regard to run defense.

A passing game script is suggested by the Colts being a -3.5-point underdog this week. The leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 60.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Colts ranks as the best in the NFL this year.

A running game script is implied by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.8% of their downs: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week. Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL. Our trusted projections expect Kenneth Gainwell to notch 7.7 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among running backs. The leading projections forecast Kenneth Gainwell to be much more involved in his team's pass attack in this game (22.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (15.6% in games he has played).

This game's line implies an extreme rushing game script for the Jaguars, who are a massive favorite by 13 points. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to run on 46.1% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest clip on the slate this week. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (a colossal 59.4 per game on average). Trevor Lawrence has rushed for quite a few more yards per game (20.0) this year than he did last year (11.0). This year, the tough Tennessee Titans run defense has allowed a paltry 4.85 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing run game: the 25th-smallest rate in the league.

At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach. The predictive model expects the New England Patriots to be the 11th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 40.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Opposing teams have run for the 8th-most adjusted yards in the league (129 per game) versus the Dolphins defense this year.

The leading projections forecast Brock Purdy to accrue 4.6 carries in this game, on balance: the 9th-fewest out of all quarterbacks. Our trusted projections expect Brock Purdy to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game in this game (16.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (11.4% in games he has played).

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have 137.3 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. The leading projections forecast Kirk Cousins to attempt 35.3 passes this week, on average: the 9th-most among all quarterbacks. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Falcons profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have 137.3 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. The predictive model expects Drake London to accrue 9.5 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 95th percentile among WRs. Drake London has been a key part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 30.2% this year, which ranks in the 96th percentile when it comes to wideouts. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Falcons profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to see 137.3 offensive plays run: the most among all games this week. The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 59.2 plays per game. This year, the weak Falcons run defense has been torched for a monstrous 128.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 10th-most in football. The Atlanta Falcons defensive tackles profile as the worst DT corps in football this year in regard to run defense.

This week's line indicates an extreme throwing game script for the Cardinals, who are huge -7.5-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cardinals to pass on 65.1% of their opportunities: the highest frequency among all teams this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have 132.6 offensive plays called: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week. The Cardinals have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 60.2 plays per game. The Rams defense has been something of pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (36.5 per game) this year.

The Seattle Seahawks feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context). The Seahawks have been the 10th-most run-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 41.4% run rate. Zach Charbonnet has earned 39.6% of his offense's rushing play calls this year, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to RBs. With a stellar tally of 42.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (76th percentile), Zach Charbonnet places among the leading pure rushers in the NFL this year. The 49ers defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-worst DT corps in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have 137.3 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. Kyle Pitts has gone out for fewer passes this year (91.5% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (75.7%). In this contest, Kyle Pitts is anticipated by the model to position himself in the 98th percentile among TEs with 8.2 targets. After totaling 36.0 air yards per game last season, Kyle Pitts has produced significantly more this season, currently averaging 51.0 per game.

The Baltimore Ravens offense has played at the 3rd-slowest pace in football (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 30.46 seconds per play. Derrick Henry has run for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (92.0) this year than he did last year (118.0). The Steelers defense owns the 5th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, conceding just 4.12 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC). When it comes to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Pittsburgh's collection of DEs has been tremendous this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the league.

A running game script is implied by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.8% of their downs: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week. Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL. While Marquez Valdes-Scantling has received 6.7% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more important option in Pittsburgh's passing offense in this week's contest at 16.5%. The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing attack statistics across the board.

An extreme running game script is implied by the Titans being a huge 13.5-point favorite in this week's game. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Titans to run on 49.3% of their plays: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week. Our trusted projections expect the Titans to run the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.8 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics. This year, the strong Jacksonville Jaguars run defense has conceded a feeble 88.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the best in football. As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Jacksonville's LB corps has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 4th-best in football.

At the present time, the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (55.3% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Dolphins. The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The 2nd-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Dolphins this year (a lowly 51.8 per game on average). The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board. The Patriots linebackers profile as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.4% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 10th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.7 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The predictive model expects Joe Burrow to attempt 37.5 passes in this contest, on balance: the 4th-most among all quarterbacks. Joe Burrow profiles as one of the most accurate passers in the league this year with a fantastic 68.7% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 81st percentile. With an excellent 7.74 adjusted yards-per-target (76th percentile) this year, Joe Burrow rates as one of the most efficient QBs in the league.

The Ravens are a heavy 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens as the 9th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The Baltimore Ravens offense has played at the 3rd-slowest pace in football (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 30.46 seconds per play. In this week's game, Lamar Jackson is anticipated by the predictive model to wind up with the 6th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 29.6. When talking about pocket protection (and the importance it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Ravens profiles as the 7th-worst in the league this year.

The Seahawks defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (38.3 per game) this year.

At the moment, the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (61.9% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Houston Texans. Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Texans are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 66.3 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-most among all teams this week. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Houston Texans this year (a whopping 60.4 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The Colts defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (38.5 per game) this year.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Falcons, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.9 per game) this year. This year, the tough Falcons defense has conceded a mere 210.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing QBs: the 8th-fewest in football. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-lowest clip in the league against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year (67.0% Adjusted Completion%).

The Seahawks defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (38.3 per game) this year. This week, Jauan Jennings is expected by the model to find himself in the 79th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.1 targets.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have 132.6 offensive plays called: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week. The Cardinals have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 60.2 plays per game. The predictive model expects Michael Carter to be a much smaller part of his team's running game in this game (8.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (27.7% in games he has played).

Our trusted projections expect the Saints offensive strategy to skew 1.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context) with head coach Kellen Moore now calling the plays. At a -3-point disadvantage, the Saints are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their typical approach. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to see 137.5 offensive plays run: the most among all games this week. The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 59.2 plays per game. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.