Axel Rose was on to something. Nothing lasts forever in the cold November rain.
A mid-November implosion flipped the Atlanta Falcons’ 6-3 start into a 2-6 finish last year.
That second-half swoon not only left Atlanta short of its lofty expectations but forced the front office to bump Kirk Cousins’ colossal contract to the bench in place of Michael Penix Jr. as the starter.
Bookmakers have lowered the bar in the ATL this year. The Falcons are look-ahead favorites in only seven games, and the win total is two victories shorter than 2024 (9.5 to 7.5).
While those odds line up, could this be an overcorrection?
There’s a lot of talent on offense, and the stop unit has a new coordinator and a defensive-minded head coach trying to breathe life into a passive stop unit. Any improvements on defense can go a long way.
I size up this year’s “Dirty Birds” with my 2025 Atlanta Falcons betting preview.
Atlanta Falcons best bets
Read on for Jason's full analysis and Atlanta Falcons breakdown!
Atlanta Falcons odds for 2025
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +7000 |
| Win conference | +3000 |
| Win division | <<+XXX>> |
| Make playoffs | +210 |
| Over 7.5 wins | -140 |
| Under 7.5 wins | +110 |
Best futures bet: Over 7.5 wins (-140)
First off, let’s pump the brakes on Michael Penix Jr.
Putting up points against Carolina, Washington, and the N.Y. Giants last year wasn’t too much of an ask. However, should Penix Jr. struggle as the starting QB, the Falcons still have $180 million insurance policy in Kirk Cousins.
The rushing attack is also a fallback should the passing game sputter. Atlanta boasted the top success rate per handoff, and being able to control the ground game not only takes pressure off the pass but also limits the exposure of the defense.
Head coach Raheem Morris and new DC Jeff Ulbrich are very savvy defensive minds and should be able to turn up the intensity after the Falcons' pass rush rated near the bottom of the NFL in 2024.
The schedule offers up winnable games, and while Atlanta is an underdog in 10 contests, 10 of the team’s look-ahead lines sit within a field goal (-3 to +3).
I can count up eight victories for Atlanta.
Atlanta Falcons at a glance: Good and bad pressure
Two things will determine the fate of the Falcons in 2025.
Penix Jr. and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson need to squeeze all the juice from this talented roster. If the second-year QB can handle the first-team pressure, Atlanta will be OK.
The defensive line also needs to bring pressure. Last year, the Falcons were among the worst defenses in pressure percentage and pass rush win rate, and their 31 sacks finished second-lowest in the league.
What will win bets: Rushing attack
The combo of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier is a Top-3 ground game, running behind a very good offensive line (pending some training camp injuries).
Atlanta ranked No. 1 in success rate per handoff and averaged 4.5 yards per carry, wearing down foes with Zac Robinson’s up-tempo playcalling.
Dominating the ground unlocks a lot for Atlanta. Penix Jr. promises a more dynamic play-action option than Cousins, which will keep opponents guessing and limit the pressure on the young QB. It also chews up clock and possession, helping protect the defense.
What will lose bets: Defense
The Falcons have some standouts in the secondary, and that group would get a big boost if the defensive front can cause a little chaos. Atlanta had only 18 takeaways in 2024, but 13 of them were interceptions.
But with rival QBs standing tall in the pocket, the Falcons rated 25th in EPA allowed per dropback and watched those opposing quarterbacks post a collective 100.2 passer rating against.
Oh, and then there’s the run defense. Even if offseason additions can give the pass rush claws, Atlanta is susceptible to the rush. The Falcons were 26th in run stop win rate at ESPN and 26th in success rate per handoff allowed.
Atlanta Falcons schedule + spot bet: Never out of reach
Due to life in the NFC South, which includes two meetings with both Carolina and New Orleans, the Falcons’ schedule isn’t the toughest track.
Outside of divisional play, you have a handful of contenders like Washington, Buffalo, San Francisco, and the L.A. Rams. However, Atlanta isn’t out of its depth most weeks, with 10 spreads ranging between -3 and +3.
QB quality of those foes helps this revamped defense find its footing. The Falcons face J.J. McCarthy, Bryce Young, Drake Maye, Daniel Jones, Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, and whoever the Saints start.
The back half of the schedule does keep Atlanta away from home, with six road games in eight outings between Weeks 9 and Week 16. That includes a trip to Germany in Week 10.
Spot bet: Week 8 vs. Miami -1.5, 46.5
The Dolphins have a spicy situational spot when they come to Atlanta on October 26. Miami is playing back-to-back road games and three away games in four weeks.
On top of that, the Fins host Baltimore for Thursday Night Football in Week 9. That lines up a look-ahead to the short week against one of the toughest teams to prepare for in the NFL.
The Falcons are home favorites only four times in 2025 — a role that has produced an ugly 5-13 ATS record the past two seasons.
Mr. Robinson’s Neighborhood
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Win MVP | +15000 |
| Win Offensive Player of the Year | +1600 |
| Over 1199.5 Rushing Yards | -110 |
| Under 1199.5 Rushing Yards | -110 |
| Over 10.5 Rushing Touchdowns | -110 |
| Under 10.5 Rushing Touchdowns | -110 |
Bijan Robinson best bet: Over 1,199.5 rushing yards (-110)
Robinson rumbled for more than 1,400 rushing yards in his sophomore campaign in an offense that handed off less than 46% of the time.
With Penix Jr. getting his feet wet, I expect Zac Robinson to lean into his star rusher early in the year. Plenty of tight look-ahead spreads project Atlanta in close games, which means the Falcons aren’t playing from behind and can utilize their best weapon.
Season-long forecasts all have Robinson above this rushing yard total, with projections ranging from just shy of 1,400 to more than 1,500 gains on the ground. And when you plug in his production as a receiver, Bijan is a +1600 live flyer to win Offensive Player of the Year.
Atlanta Falcons trend: Home Unders
In his first year as head coach, Raheem Morris kept a trend alive that carried over from the dark days of Arthur Smith’s tenure in the ATL.
The Falcons finished with a 3-6 Over/Under record at home in 2024, staying below some inflated numbers inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium. That makes Atlanta 12-21 O/U at home since 2021 — a 64% windfall for Unders.
This year’s home totals sit on the high side, ranging from 45.5 to 48.5, thanks in part to a few high-powered visitors early in the schedule.
More NFL team previews
Want to see Jason's forecast for the rest of the NFL? Check out all of his NFL team previews below!
| Bills | Ravens | Texans | Broncos |
| Dolphins | Bengals | Colts | Chiefs |
| Patriots | Browns | Jaguars | Raiders |
| Jets | Steelers | Titans | Chargers |
| Cowboys | Bears | Falcons | Cardinals |
| Giants | Lions | Panthers | Rams |
| Eagles | Packers | Saints | 49ers |
| Commanders | Vikings | Buccaneers | Seahawks |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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