You’ve got to be lucky to be good. Or do you have to be good to be lucky?
We’ll find out which one the Washington Commanders are in 2025 following an improbable season loaded with “luck”.
Skeptical sports bettors were waiting for the other shoe to drop in D.C. all season, as the Commanders flipped off probability and finished 10-6-1 ATS.
Comeback wins, crazy Hail Mary connections, a Divisional Round doink, and consistent success converting pivotal third and fourth downs had Washington near the top of the infamous “Luck Ratings” in 2024.
The front office isn’t waiting to find out which side of fortune they sit on, striking while the iron is hot with a busy offseason bolstering the roster’s biggest gaps.
A tougher schedule and expectations will kick the tires on the Commies and sophomore quarterback Jayden Daniels. Will regression rear its ugly head?
We find out in my 2025 NFL betting preview of the Washington Commanders.
Washington Commanders best bets
Read on for Jason's full analysis and Washington Commanders breakdown!
Washington Commanders odds for 2025
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +1800 |
| Win conference | +850 |
| Win division | +225 |
| Make playoffs | -150 |
| Over 9.5 wins | -130 |
| Under 9.5 wins | +100 |
Best futures bet: Make Playoffs (-150)
Look-ahead lines have the Commanders laying points in a dozen games and the season win total is at 9.5 with the Over juiced, projecting Washington for double-digit victories.
Ranking out the rest of the NFC, that puts the Commanders in the postseason mix. Minnesota and Seattle could step back in 2025, and the L.A. Rams are holding Matt Stafford’s spine together with hot glue and good vibes.
Another 12-win record might be a stretch, but Washington has the personnel and coaching chops to get back to the tournament.
Washington Commanders at a glance: Going All In
The Commanders are ahead of schedule. The new regime in D.C. recognizes the rare window facing Washington and is making a run at Big Game glory in 2025.
The offense added protection and weapons with OL Laremy Tunsil and Swiss Army WR Deebo Samuel, investing in the continued success of Rookie of the Year winner Jayden Daniels.
The defense was the weak link for Washington last year. This is Year 2 in Dan Quinn’s schemes and the fiery head coach is innovative and aggressive, anchoring his defense with a solid linebacker corps.
What will win bets: Passing
Daniels played well beyond his years as a rookie and possess all the tools you want in a modern-day QB: arm strength, mobility, and composure – ranking among the top-rated QBs when blitzed.
He’ll find another gear in Year 2 of Kliff Kingsbury’s high-octane playbook after pacing the NFL in tempo and finishing fourth in EPA per dropback.
In 2024, Terry McLaurin proved what a lot of us knew all along: he’s an elite receiver. “Scary Terry” finished second in the NFL with 13 TD catches. He gets a complementary partner in Deebo Samuel, who has Kingsbury giddy when thinking of the possibilities.
What will lose bets: Defense
Washington lost just six games overall in 2024 (0-5-1 ATS), including the NFC Championship Game. The team gave up an average of 35 points in those defeats – a significant jump beyond the season average of 24.9 points allowed.
While the front office padded the depth chart in the offseason, the Commanders’ stop unit remains a sore spot and the lack of pass pressure doesn’t jibe with Quinn’s chaos-causing style.
I don’t believe the defense will be worse than 2024, as I’m a big fan of Quinn’s ability to elevate players. But with the Commies laying points in 12 games, including eight spreads of -3.5 or higher, hemorrhaging rushing yards and crumbling in the red zone will burn bettors bad.
Washington Commanders schedule + spot bet: Tougher Track
The 2025 schedule is a much tougher test than last year’s lineup of opponents, rating No. 8 in SOS.
The biggest difference will be the quality of defense the Commanders face, with 11 games versus foes boasting stop units projected in the top half in the NFL. Last season, Washington was gifted 10 games against defenses that finished 20th or worse in EPA allowed per play.
The Commanders are set up for early success, however. They open at home versus the Giants in Week 1 (-6.5), host Las Vegas in Week 3 (-7.5) and travel to Atlanta in Week 4 (-3.5). Depending how a Week 2 trip to Lambeau goes (+2.5), Washington could be 4-0 by the time October rolls around.
Spot bet: Week 5 at L.A. Chargers (+1.5, 47.5)
A cross-country trip to Los Angeles is the toughest schedule spot on the Commanders’ calendar. This will be the team’s second straight road outing, after playing at Atlanta in Week 4, and will be the third away game in four weeks.
If I’m right about a quick start, this +1.5 spread could jump the fence before kickoff on October 5.
Not only does this road-hefty slate test Washington, but a Monday Night Football date versus Chicago in Week 6 could set up a look-ahead spot in La-La Land.
Not Fadin’ Jayden
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Win MVP | +850 |
| Win Offensive Player of the Year | +4000 |
| Over 3499.5 Passing Yards | -110 |
| Under 3499.5 Passing Yards | -110 |
| Over 22.5 TD Passes | -150 |
| Under 22.5 TD Passes | +120 |
Jayden Daniels best bet: Over 22.5 Passing Touchdowns (-150)
This touchdown total is too low. Even with the defensive opposition getting cranked up, Daniels will easily blow this prop total out of the water.
He connected for 25 touchdowns in his RoY campaign. Daniels only had six scores in his first seven games as a pro before settling in for 19 TDs throws in the final 10 outings, including an abbreviated Week 18 appearance.
Player projections range from 27 to 29 touchdown passes, which makes laying the -150 price tag worth it.
Washington Commanders trend: Home Overs
Considering the upheaval with this franchise in recent years, it’s tough to lock on to a trend that holds water. Here's what I got.
Last year’s Commanders were one of the better Over plays in the league, finishing 11-6 Over/Under including 6-3 O/U at home.
The math adds up with an offense averaging more than 30 points per homestand and a ho-hum defense. Sub-par stop units are also why Washington went 5-3 O/U in D.C. in 2023, giving the Commanders a 65% Over rate inside Northwest Stadium the past two seasons.
More NFL team previews
Want to see Jason's forecast for the rest of the NFL? Check out all of his NFL team previews below!
| Bills | Ravens | Texans | Broncos |
| Dolphins | Bengals | Colts | Chiefs |
| Patriots | Browns | Jaguars | Raiders |
| Jets | Steelers | Titans | Chargers |
| Cowboys | Bears | Falcons | Cardinals |
| Giants | Lions | Panthers | Rams |
| Eagles | Packers | Saints | 49ers |
| Commanders | Vikings | Buccaneers | Seahawks |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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