Preseason prognostications for the Las Vegas Raiders are mostly positive after a busy offseason.
Hiring Pete Carroll as head coach. Trading for quarterback Geno Smith. Drafting electric RB Ashton Jeanty. Getting key bodies back on defense. These are big positives for one of the worst franchises in recent years.
Those moves may have the Silver and Black faithful looking forward to 2025, but the NFL odds are a much tougher sell.
Las Vegas’ preseason odds for 2025 look very similar to their 2024 numbers. The Raiders are underdogs in 13 games and have a win total of 6.5 shaded toward the Over.
Things in Las Vegas always look a lot cooler from the outside (ever been to the Luxor?). That could be true for the football team as well.
Here’s my 2025 Las Vegas Raiders NFL betting preview.
Las Vegas Raiders best bets
Read on for Jason's full analysis and Las Vegas Raiders breakdown!
Las Vegas Raiders odds for 2025
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +12500 |
| Win conference | +5000 |
| Win division | +1600 |
| Make playoffs | +320 |
| Over 6.5 wins | -145 |
| Under 6.5 wins | +115 |
Best futures bet: Fourth in AFC West (-145)
A lot of things have to go sideways for the Las Vegas Raiders not to finish fourth in the AFC West.
Not only does Vegas have the worst offense of the bunch, but this defense is well off the pace in the division as well.
The Raiders are favorites in only four games but do have eight look-ahead lines between -3 and +3, offering a higher ceiling closer to the win total of 6.5, which is padded to the Over.
Even seven victories won’t be enough to avoid another season in the basement.
Las Vegas Raiders at a glance: Nowhere to go but up
Things have been so bad in Vegas, any improvements feel monumental.
Yes, Carroll is by far the best coach this franchise has had since they cancelled Jon Gruden. Geno Smith might be the best quarterback in Silver and Black since they moved to Nevada.
But we’re talking about a 73-year-old man (the oldest coach in NFL history) and a 34-year-old QB on the decline with a worse team around him. Forget regression and start worrying about whether we’ll see this pairing make it to Week 18.
What will win bets: Offensive improvements
I can’t poop on Geno too much. He’s an upgrade under center after watching Vegas march out Gardiner Minshew and Aiden O’Connell in 2024. Smith is steady, kept clean or under pressure, and he has some viable weapons around him.
The rushing game is going all in on rookie RB Ashton Jeanty, who was a beast at Boise State. He looked great in the preseason and will thrive in Chip Kelly’s up-tempo offense. The first-round pick is the co-favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+275).
Tight end Brock Bowers was the ultimate safety blanket for Vegas’s subpar passers in his rookie year, and he and WR Jakobi Meyers benefit from the upgrade at quarterback.
What will lose bets: Defense
The Raiders have their fingers crossed that Maxx Crosby and Malcolm Koonce can return healthy and stay healthy, especially after the bizarre dismissal of Christian Wilkins. Las Vegas needs this defensive front to generate some sort of pressure in order to bail out the rest of the stop unit.
The secondary sits dead last in many preseason rankings, and the linebacking corps isn’t much better, which had me wondering if Las Vegas has the athletes to play Carroll’s speedy style of defense.
Some quality quarterbacks are licking their chops when seeing the Raiders on the schedule. You’ve got two games with both Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert — and two against a budding Bo Nix — on top of matchups with the likes of Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, and C.J. Stroud.
Las Vegas Raiders schedule + spot bet: No rest for the wicked
If you’ve ever been to Sin City, you know sleep isn’t a priority.
The Raiders don’t get much downtime in 2025, facing the biggest rest deficit of any team (-19 days), according to Sharp Football Analysis. A couple of Monday games and a Thursday outing put Vegas in a bad spot.
One thing that does go the Raiders’ way is an indoor-heavy schedule once the weather gets cold. Las Vegas — an indoor team — will only play one outdoor game (at Philadelphia in Week 15) in the final eight contests.
A soft secondary against quality QBs and Kelly’s up-tempo approach with an improved offense has been thinking about Overs. The bulk of the Raiders' totals sit shorter than 45 points, and there’s a potential for more points, especially on those fast indoor tracks.
Spot bet: Week 6 vs. Tennessee -3, 44.5
The Raiders welcome a road-weary Titans team to Allegiant Stadium in Week 6.
Tennessee will be playing the final stop of three straight away games and its fourth road game in the opening six weeks. That’s a hostile classroom for first-year QB Cam Ward.
This is one of just four times Las Vegas is a point spread favorite, according to look-ahead lines. The Raiders are 13-7 SU and 12-8 ATS as home chalk since moving the team to Vegas in 2020.
Selling stock in Brock
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Win Offensive Player of the Year | +5000 |
| Lead NFL in Receptions | +1000 |
| Over 1000.5 Receiving Yards | -110 |
| Under 1000.5 Receiving Yards | -110 |
| Over 5.5 Receiving Touchdowns | +120 |
| Under 5.5 Receiving Touchdowns | -150 |
Brock Bowers best bet: Under 1000.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Bowers is ripe for regression after an insane rookie season in which he caught 112 passes for 1,194 yards receiving.
The upgrade to Geno Smith at QB could balance that out, but Chip Kelly runs a lot of 12-personnel. That means Bowers is sharing snaps with fellow TE Michael Mayer, who got a lot of work in the preseason after missing six games in 2024.
Bowers is no longer a secret weapon, which means teams will game plan to take him away — especially since the rest of this receiving corps is crappy. Season-long models are more optimistic, but I’m not buying stock in Brock.
Las Vegas Raiders trend: Home Overs
The Vegas Strip isn’t the only lightshow in Sin City. The scoreboard inside the “Death Star” gets a workout, with the Raiders going Over the total in 61% of home games since moving to Vegas in 2020.
Last season, the Silver and Black posted a 5-3 Over/Under count at home – thanks in large part to some short totals. Those numbers ranged from 37 to 44.5 points.
More NFL team previews
Want to see Jason's forecast for the rest of the NFL? Check out all of his NFL team previews below!
| Bills | Ravens | Texans | Broncos |
| Dolphins | Bengals | Colts | Chiefs |
| Patriots | Browns | Jaguars | Raiders |
| Jets | Steelers | Titans | Chargers |
| Cowboys | Bears | Falcons | Cardinals |
| Giants | Lions | Panthers | Rams |
| Eagles | Packers | Saints | 49ers |
| Commanders | Vikings | Buccaneers | Seahawks |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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