NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds: Dak Early Favorite

Jun 5, 2021 |
By: Covers Staff
NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds: Dak Early Favorite
After a brutal leg injury ended his 2020 season, Dak Prescott is expected to be ready for Week 1 and is the early betting favorite to win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
After a brutal leg injury ended his 2020 season, Dak Prescott is expected to be ready for Week 1 and is the early betting favorite to win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

NFL CPOY betting odds are now on the board for the 2021 season, adding another NFL futures bet for football betting fans to feast on.

The odds board is littered with star players, most of which are returning from injuries, while others are looking for new beginnings.

Here are the updated NFL betting odds for the 2021 Comeback Player of the Year Award.

NFL Comeback Player of the Year betting odds

Player NFL CPOY Betting Odds
Dak Prescott +175
Saquon Barkley +600
Joe Burrow +600
Christian McCaffrey +600
Nick Bosa +700
Carson Wentz +900
Sam Darnold +1,600
Derwin James +1,600
Von Miller +1,600
Joe Mixon +2,000
Jameis Winston +2,000
Odell Beckham Jr. +2,500
Julio Jones +2,500
Danielle Hunter +3,300
Tim Tebow +3,300
Jimmy Garoppolo +3,300
Damien Williams +8,000
Dont'a Hightower +10,000
CJ Mosley +10,000
Kyle Long +10,000

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of June 6, 2021.

Favorites to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year: Injured stars return

Stars returning from injuries are the (unsurprising) theme of the initial CPOY odds board, headlined by Dallas QB Dak Prescott at +175. Prescott was off to a torrid start, averaging 371.2 passing yards per game last year before a horrific leg injury ended his season in Week 5. Prescott is expected to be ready to go in Week 1 and not only do oddsmakers think he'll bounce back but so do the Cowboys — they signed him to a 4-year, $160M contract extension in March.

There's a three-way tie for second on the odds board with Cincinnati's Joe Burrow, Carolina's Christian McCaffrey and New York Giants star Saquon Barkley all at +600. Burrow, the first-overall pick last year, was having a very good rookie season before tearing his ACL and MCL in Week 11, while Barkley suffered a torn right ACL in Week 2. McCaffrey, a First-Team All-Pro in 2019, only played three games last season due to multiple injuries.  

San Francisco DE Nick Bosa continues the injury recovery trend, sitting fourth at +700 after playing just two games last season, while Carson Wentz — who isn't coming back from injury, rather a simply awful season — is fifth on the board at +900 as he starts fresh with Indianapolis.

Long shots to win NFL CPOY: No more ghosts for Darnold

Sam Darnold might be most famous for "seeing ghosts," but the former third-overall pick was shipped out of town as the New York Jets drafted Zach Wilson with the No. 2 pick in this year's draft. Darnold, who has yet to play 16 games in a season, is still only 24 years old and entering his fourth NFL season as he starts fresh with Carolina, which has significantly better offensive weapons and a creative head coach in Matt Rhule. This could finally be the year Darnold puts it all together, making him a solid value at +1,600.

Tim Tebow (+3,300) is... just kidding. We do, however, like the value on Julio Jones at that price, as when healthy he's still one of the most dynamic wide receivers in the NFL. Jones only managed to play in nine games last season but posted 1,394 yards in 2019 and an NFL-best 1,677 yards the year before. If the 32-year-old Jones can stay on the field, he could be in for at least one more big season in Atlanta... or possibly another NFL team as a trade has been rumoured.

NFL Comeback Player of the Year Betting Trends

• Over the last 19 years, the NFL CPOY Award has been handed out to quarterbacks on 13 occasions. 

• Although Ryan Tannehill won the award in 2019 after bouncing back from a poor 2018 season, in recent years the NFL CPOY Award has been handed out to players coming off significant injuries. Over a five-year period from 2014 to 2018, every Comeback Player of the Year had suffered a season-ending injury during the previous year — and Alex Smith won in 2020 after recovering from a devastating leg injury that almost required amputation. 

• Only one player has ever won this award more than once (Chad Pennington in 2006 and 2008). The players tied for fourth on the odds board (Gronkowski and Matthew Stafford) have previously won the award.

Who are previous NFL Comeback Player of the Year award winners? 

Year NFL CPOY winner
2020 Alex Smith
2019 Ryan Tannehill
2018 Andrew Luck
2017 Keenan Allen
2016 Jordy Nelson
2015 Eric Berry
2014 Rob Gronkowski
2013 Philip Rivers
2012 Peyton Manning
2011 Matthew Stafford
2010 Michael Vick
2009 Tom Brady
2008 Chad Pennington

How to bet on NFL awards odds?

Here are a few tips to keep in mind when wagering on NFL awards betting odds.  

Change your strategy at different points in the season

NFL awards odds will be adjusted by sportsbooks as the season goes on. In the preseason and the early weeks of the regular season, betting on dark horses can prove very profitable. As the season continues, expect to see odds tighten around the favorites. At that point, it becomes wise to focus on the players near the top of the odds board and betting big underdogs is unwise.

Look for value with underdogs

Live long shots can provide tremendous value. Look at younger players on the verge of breaking out, or guys that have already been playing at a high level but could take the next step now that they are in an ideal situation with a new team, coach or system. Other players that can give a great payout are established stars coming off under-performing seasons due to injuries or other factors.  

Follow the narrative

When placing futures bets on individual awards, keep in mind that voters, not a scoreboard, are often the deciding factor. Voters can be influenced by a variety of factors, including media coverage and public opinion. Consider what the media narrative is for a particular season and which players they seem to be rooting for and against. 

Research historical trends

Historical trends, especially recent ones, can give you a good idea of which way voters tend to lean. For example, the NFL MVP has been handed out to a quarterback in 12 of the last 13 seasons. Identifying those trends is a good way to separate the true contenders from the pretenders. 

Where can I bet on NFL awards?

Most online books and casinos offer futures bets on NFL awards and odds generally begin to appear after free agency and the NFL Draft. Check out the NFL futures odds at the best sportsbooks available in your area.

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