The Kansas City Chiefs enter the season looking to reestablish themselves atop the AFC West, buoyed by the return of two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes after a devastating ACL tear ended his 2025 campaign.
With Mahomes fully cleared at training camp, the superstar is fresh off a massive contract extension and joins Kyler Murray and Malik Nabers among the early favorites in the NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds.
Here are the latest NFL odds as we build toward Week 1.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds
| Player Name |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Patrick Mahomes |
36% |
 Kyler Murray |
17% |
 Malik Nabers |
8% |
 Daniel Jones |
6% |
 Micah Parsons |
6% |
| Tucker Kraft |
6% |
 Travis Hunter |
5% |
 Fred Warner |
4% |
| Nick Bosa |
4% |
 Tank Dell |
4% |
Odds as of 8-4. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
Return of a Rams Legend?
The Los Angeles Rams were already the betting favorite following the blockbuster trade for Myles Garrett, and adding three-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald would solidify their case as the team to beat in the NFC.
Donald has reportedly been working out throughout the summer to determine whether he’s willing and physically ready for a comeback after retiring in 2024.
With the Rams hosting the Super Bowl this season, Donald returning to hoist another Lombardi Trophy on home turf would be an incredible Hollywood sequel.
Former Rams DT Aaron Donald is going through a "very strict, regimented process" to decide whether he wants to unretire this season, Rams head coach Sean McVay said.
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) July 25, 2026
And if Donald does decide he wants to play, McVay said, "we are going to try to be able to make that happen."…
NFL Comeback Player of the Year prediction
Concussion history aside, Tua Tagovailoa will really benefit from a change of scenery.
Heading into a one-year contract with the Atlanta Falcons, the former fifth overall pick will have a leg up on Michael Penix Jr. in training camp, as Penix continues to recover from the partially torn ACL he suffered a year ago.
Tua spent three consecutive years from 2022–2024 leading the league in either passer rating, passing yards, or completion percentage, and landing in an offense featuring Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts could give the Falcons quarterback production similar to his best days under Mike McDaniel.
Tagovailoa will also escape the cold conditions of the AFC East, no longer having to play in Buffalo or Foxborough, instead spending half his time indoors at home in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, along with favorable environments in New Orleans and Tampa Bay.
If anything, Tagovailoa should feel like he's back in his SEC college days.
CPOY Pick: Tua Tagovailoa (1% probability at Kalshi)
Popular NFL futures markets
NFL Comeback Player of the Year betting trends
• Over the last eight years, the NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award has gone to a quarterback seven times.
• From 2014 to 2018, every Comeback Player of the Year had suffered a season-ending injury during the previous year, and Alex Smith won in 2020 after recovering from a devastating leg injury that almost required amputation.
• Joe Burrow joins Chad Pennington (2006 and 2008) as the only player to win this award twice.
Previous NFL Comeback Player of the Year award winners
| Year | NFL CPOY winner | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Christian McCaffrey |  San Francisco 49ers |
| 2024 | Joe Burrow |  Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2023 | Joe Flacco |  Cleveland Browns |
| 2022 | Geno Smith |  Seattle Seahawks |
| 2021 | Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2020 | Alex Smith |  Washington Commanders |
| 2019 | Ryan Tannehill |  Tennessee Titans |
| 2018 | Andrew Luck |  Indianapolis Colts |
| 2017 | Keenan Allen |  Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2016 | Jordy Nelson |  Green Bay Packers |
| 2015 | Eric Berry |  Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2014 | Rob Gronkowski |  New England Patriots |
| 2013 | Philip Rivers | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2012 | Peyton Manning |  Denver Broncos |
| 2011 | Matthew Stafford |  Detroit Lions |
| 2010 | Michael Vick |  Philadelphia Eagles |
Comeback Player of the Year Odds FAQs
Quarterbacks have won CPOY in seven of the last 10 years.
Patrick Mahomes is the current favorite to win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award.
