The Jacksonville Jaguars don’t want to give up on Trevor Lawrence. The 2025 season really feels like an all-in effort to finally get what the franchise hoped for out of the former No. 1 overall pick.
Jacksonville hired a promising offensive head coach in Liam Coen, moved up to draft two-way weapon Travis Hunter, and poured money into the offensive line during free agency.
While Lawrence didn’t take any preseason snaps in this new system, reports from training camp are positive. And if Coen’s work in Tampa Bay last year is any indication, Jacksonville is ripe for improvement.
The Jaguars are still long-shots to win the AFC South (+300 behind Houston -105), and preseason projections are tempered, with Jacksonville pegged as an underdog in 11 games and facing a season win total of 7.5 O/U.
How will the dice roll out in Duval County? We find out in my 2025 Jacksonville Jaguars NFL betting preview.
Jacksonville Jaguars best bets
Read on for Jason's full analysis and Jacksonville Jaguars breakdown!
Jacksonville Jaguars odds for 2025
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +7500 |
| Win conference | +4000 |
| Win division | +300 |
| Make playoffs | +180 |
| Over 7.5 wins | -110 |
| Under 7.5 wins | -110 |
Best futures bet: Second in AFC South (+230)
The Tennessee Titans will be terrible, and the Indianapolis Colts opted for Daniel Jones over Anthony Richardson at QB, which means things are bad in Indianapolis. Look-ahead lines have Jacksonville finishing behind Houston in the AFC South.
If a challenging start to 2025 doesn’t sink the Jacksonville Jaguars, the final six games set the table for a strong finish. Jacksonville hosts Indianapolis and the New York Jets, travels to the Denver Broncos and Indy, then closes at home versus Tennessee.
The team is a favorite in four of those games while getting +1.5 at the Colts in Week 17.
Jacksonville Jaguars at a glance: Learning curve for coaches
The Jaguars are putting a lot of faith into the pedigree of Coen and defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile — the team's fourth DC since 2021.
Coen helped make the Buccaneers one of the best offenses in the NFL last season, not only scoring a ton of points but finding a balanced attack, converting on third downs, and dominating time of possession.
Defensively, Campanile is installing a zone-based scheme and trying to keep everything in front of him. The 2024 Jaguars’ press coverage got cooked and gave up a league-high 71 passing plays of 20 yards or more.
Campanile is depending on the pass rush to pick up the pressure after finishing with the third-lowest pressure rate last season. That lack of chaos also failed to create takeaways, with the Jags ranked dead last in turnovers forced (9).
What will win bets: Offense
Trevor Lawrence has a potent one-two punch at receiver with Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter. They’re big targets who can out-muscle defenders and will thrive in Coen’s offense, which was efficient in the red zone.
The rushing attack has three capable carriers in Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby, and slippery rookie RB Bhayshul Tuten. Offensive line additions not only help protect the passer but will plow the road for the rush as well.
The offense was so bad at key spots last year, rating out among the worst in first downs, time of possession, and third down success rate. Any uptick in those metrics has a trickle-down across both sides of the ball.
What will lose bets: Passive pass rush
The Jaguars’ defense was declawed in 2024. Jacksonville couldn’t get pressure from the defensive line, sat among the bottom in sacks, and failed to make any “game-changing” plays with only nine takeaways.
Entering 2025, the Jags' secondary and linebacker corps are solid with high ceilings. However, the new zone coverage will get picked apart if the front can’t get after opposing passers. Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker remain the standouts, but were part of that group that finished No. 32 in pass rush win rate in 2024.
The 2025 calendar is headlined by some savvy QBs, playing the likes of Joe Burrow, C.J. Stroud (twice), Brock Purdy, Patrick Mahomes, Matt Stafford, Justin Herbert, and Kyler Murray — all before Thanksgiving.
Jacksonville Jaguars schedule + spot bet: Total toppers
I just mentioned some of the quarterbacks crossing paths with the Jaguars this season. Most of those meetings carry a total north of 47 points, and the majority of them happen in the first seven weeks, while the defense adjusts to Campanile’s schemes.
If Coen can get Lawrence and the offense rolling, I believe Overs could be live in the opening half of Jacksonville’s schedule. The Jags were 6-3 Over/Under in the first nine games of 2024 before Lawrence went down with an injury.
The schedule rates out 24th in SOS and is very challenging early on. The Jaguars have one home game in a 48-day span between Week 2 and Week 13 - a stretch that also includes four road games in five weeks following the Week 8 bye.
Spot bet: Week 13 at Tennessee -1.5, 45.5
That busy stretch of sked ends in Nashville in Week 13, with Jacksonville playing back-to-back road games and their fourth away game in five weeks on November 30. Week 13 will be the Titans’ third consecutive home game.
That grind also falls on Thanksgiving week, which adds to the chaos. Jacksonville’s players will already be on a limited practice schedule due to heavy travel, and the holiday on Thursday will consume plenty of off-field energy.
Doug Pederson didn’t do a lot right in his brief two seasons in Duval County, but he was 5-1 ATS in divisional road games. Can the new regime have that same success in the AFC South?
TDs from T-Law
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Win MVP | +4500 |
| Win Comeback Player of the Year | +450 |
| Over 3700.5 passing yards | -130 |
| Under 3700.5 passing yards | +100 |
| Over 22.5 passing touchdowns | -130 |
| Under 22.5 passing touchdowns | +100 |
Trevor Lawrence best bet: Over 22.5 touchdown passes (-130)
Lawrence had just 11 touchdown passes in 10 games last season and has thrown for more than 23 TDs only once in his four years in the pros (25 in 2022). That said, he’s never had a coach like Coen fueling this offense.
Tampa Bay was fourth in scoring and red-zone TD rate in 2024, and with jump ball specialist Thomas Jr. and Hunter, Lawrence can leave it up there for those WRs when Jacksonville knocks on the door of the end zone.
Coen is also working the running backs into the passing game, with Etienne and dual-threat option, and Tuten a catch-and-run speedster.
This TD total is the same as last year’s number, and season-long projections sit between 22 and 24 touchdown throws from T-Law.
Jacksonville Jaguars trend: Away ATS
With so much coaching turnover in recent seasons, there are very few Jaguars trends worth reading.
In two years under Pederson, the Jaguars posted a dismal 5-10 SU mark on the road but managed to salvage a 9-6 ATS mark as visitors. That includes a 1-7 SU record and 5-3 ATS count on the road in 2024.
Coen comes from Tampa Bay, which just happened to be one of the best road bets in football last season. The Bucs went 5-3 SU and ATS away from home.
More NFL team previews
Want to see Jason's forecast for the rest of the NFL? Check out all of his NFL team previews below!
| Bills | Ravens | Texans | Broncos |
| Dolphins | Bengals | Colts | Chiefs |
| Patriots | Browns | Jaguars | Raiders |
| Jets | Steelers | Titans | Chargers |
| Cowboys | Bears | Falcons | Cardinals |
| Giants | Lions | Panthers | Rams |
| Eagles | Packers | Saints | 49ers |
| Commanders | Vikings | Buccaneers | Seahawks |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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