Odds to Win the US Open: Rahm Makes Good By Winning First Major

Latest US Open betting action: Oosthuizen favored to win

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET SUNDAY: On a Sunday afternoon leaderboard dripping with heavy hitters and a couple of less-heralded players, it was quite a sight watching in-play odds change in rapid-fire fashion. At different points, it looked as if Rory McIlroy might get it done, or Bryson DeChambeau might repeat, or Brooks Koepka would grab another big title, or Collin Morikawa might make the charge, or that Louis Oosthuizen would finally win his second major.

Jon Rahm, the +900 pre-tournament favorite at BetMGM, entered the final round as the +1,000 sixth choice, three shots behind co-leader Oosthuizen, who was the +350 favorite entering play Sunday. Over the final nine holes, while some of the best players in the world completely fell apart, Rahm and Oosthuizen kept their composure.

But Rahm put the hammer down with a birdie-birdie finish to take a one-stroke lead, while Oosthuizen still had four holes to finish. When Oosthuizen yanked his tee shot on No. 17 out of bounds, leading to a bogey, he had to eagle 18 from the fairway, which he failed to do. The birdie putt dropped, but he fell a stroke short of a playoff, with Rahm's stout 67 good for a winning total of 5-under 279.

And that did not bode well for BetMGM.

"Jon Rahm winning the U.S. Open was the worst result for the sportsbook," BetMGM vice president of trading Jason Scott said, noting Rahm was the pre-tourney +900 favorite. "Rahm received the most tickets and handle to win the tournament, resulting in a seven-figure loss for BetMGM."

BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said co-third round leaders Oosthuizen, Russell Henley and Mackenzie Hughes all would've been good outcomes behind the counter. Henley's wheels came off late on the front nine, as he bogeyed Nos. 6-8 en route to a 5-over 76, while Hughes had three bogeys and a double bogey on the back nine en route to a 77.

With so much ebb-and-flow on Sunday's leaderboard and odds board, it was a hair-pulling day for bookmakers and bettors alike. Even for those who had Rahm, and especially so for those who had any of the handful of other golfers who could've won, perhaps most notably Bryson DeChambeau. The lightning rod entered the final round two shots back as the +500 co-second choice with McIlroy, and with birdies at Nos. 5 and 8, DeChambeau got to 5 under to take over as the in-play favorite.

Then he imploded on the back nine, with bogeys on 11 and 12, a double on 13 and a whopping quadruple-bogey 8 on the par-4 17th. DeChambeau ultimately shot 77 and tied for 26th at 3-over 287.

"If you bet golf, prepare for disappointment," Shelton said.

UPDATE 1 A.M. ET SUNDAY: There's finally been a change at the top of the U.S. Open odds board, and all it took for Louis Oosthuizen to get there was sinking a 52-foot eagle putt on the 18th hole to wrap up Round 3. That gave Oosthuizen a 1-under 70 for a 5-under 208 total, tied with the steady Russell Henley and surging Mackenzie Hughes.

The SuperBook's updated odds to win the U.S. Open have Oosthuizen a +325 favorite, with Hughes the +700 fourth choice and Henley the +750 fifth choice.

"Louis is a good-but-not-great result for us," SuperBook risk manager Neil Fitzroy said, before moving on to the unlikely co-leaders Henley and Hughes. "Henley closed 250/1 pre-tournament, and there were only five tickets out there at that price. Small stuff, a few $5 bets and an $18 bet. Hughes closed 500/1, with only one ticket on him at that price, for $5. There has been some interest in Henley in the adjusted market, smaller-dollar tickets. There has been more interest in Hughes in the adjusted market than Henley. There are a couple of three-figure bets out there, one at 80/1 and and one at 50/1."

Sandwiched between Oosthuizen and his co-leaders on the odds board are two much more household names: Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau, both at 3-under 210 and both +500. McIlroy shot a solid 67 and DeChambeau 68, and despite their name recognition, both would be welcome winners behind The SuperBook counter.

"Surprisingly, not much interest in McIlroy during play earlier (in the tournament) or tonight," Fitzroy said late Saturday evening. "His price was slowly dropping with every hole he completed. Maybe everyone felt like they missed the value and are content with dodging him (Sunday)."

In fact, many names in the hunt are good for The SuperBook, including Henley and Hughes. Among those The SuperBook hopes to dodge Sunday at Torrey Pines are Matthew Wolff (+2,200), Xander Schauffele (+2,000) and Collin Morikawa (+2,500), with Wolff three shots back at 2-under 211, and Schauffele and Morikawa at 212.

"Wolff is the worst-case scenario," said Fitzroy, likely grateful after Wolff bogeyed two of his last five holes Saturday for a 2-over 73. "We went all the way out to 150/1 on him near the end of May. And Wednesday night, one of our regulars came in with a mid-three-figure bet on him at 150/1."

That's a quick way to high-five-figure liability. In addition, The SuperBook is sweating a couple of tournament matchup props.

"We need Dustin Johnson to beat Rahm. Johnson is currently one shot back," Fitzroy said. "And we need Jordan Spieth to beat McIlroy. Spieth is currently four shots back."

Rahm, the pre-tournament favorite and the top choice after Rounds 1 and 2, is now +1,000 in a group at 2-under 211.