The Minnesota Vikings’ approach to the 2025 NFL season reminds me of being an expectant parent.
You have months to prep and ready for your pending bundle of joy, creating the very best environment for your baby to thrive in. Memory foam crib pad. Wipe warmer. Baby monitor with a heart rate sensor. Those early developmental toys. All that shit.
In the Vikings’ case, quarterback J.J. McCarthy is that baby.
After missing the 2024 campaign due to a summer knee injury, the 10th overall pick will be Minnesota’s starting QB this season. And the Vikes have everything around the rookie passer to help him succeed. Justin Jefferson. Boosted pass protection. One of the fiercest defenses in the league. Reigning Coach of the Year Kevin O’Connell.
But if you’ve ever had kids — or planned to start a first-year QB — you know that your best-laid plans might not mean snot. You’ve just got to grit your teeth and have hope that everything will be OK.
My kids turned out fine (so far…) and the NFL odds think McCarthy and Minnesota will too.
Here’s my 2025 Minnesota Vikings NFL betting preview.
Minnesota Vikings best bets
Read on for Jason's full analysis and Minnesota Vikings breakdown!
Minnesota Vikings odds for 2025
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +2200 |
| Win conference | +1400 |
| Win division | +350 |
| Make playoffs | -110 |
| Over 9.5 wins | +100 |
| Under 9.5 wins | -130 |
Best futures bet: Second in NFC North (+240)
Detroit is the team to beat in the NFC North, making second place is a toss-up. I’m down on Green Bay and cautiously optimistic about Chicago, leaving the door open for the Minnesota Vikings to score another second-place finish.
I don’t think the Vikings put up another 12 wins this time around, but the schedule sets the team up for a strong start — including a mini training camp in October — and the defense will keep them in any game.
Minnesota Vikings at a glance: Up front and personal
As we’ve seen from the rival Lions and any team contending for a Super Bowl, you have to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Minnesota made sure it could do that this offseason.
The Vikings injected an offensive line that finished No. 2 in pass block win rate with veteran protectors and rookie blood. That puts one of the most formidable o-lines in front of McCarthy and gives a good push for the run game.
The vaunted defense of Brian Flores didn’t rest on last year’s impressive stats, adding fangs and claws up front in Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen. Last year’s D-line ranked No. 4 in both pass rush and run stop win rate.
What will win bets: Defense
The Vikings will always have a shot to win — or at least cover — as long as Flores’ defense is wreaking havoc.
Minnesota rated Top 5 in EPA allowed and success rate allowed in 2024, fueled by a frenzied pass rush that drummed up pressure at the sixth-highest rate. The Vikes blitzed on almost 39% of snaps — most in the NFL — and not only secured 49 sacks but also generated a league-high 33 turnovers.
The Vikings checked nine opponents to 21 points or less in 2024 and covered the spread in all but one of those outings (8-1 ATS).
What will lose bets: McCarthy miscues
Like I said above, you can set up the youngster to succeed, but you just don’t know until the whistle blows. What we do know is that J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings take on some dangerous defenses in 2025.
In addition to playing Detroit and Green Bay twice, Minnesota’s schedule features the NFC East and, AFC North, as well as Seattle and the L.A. Chargers just for fun. That’s several stop units projected to finish Top 15.
There will be snaps that McCarthy needs to make something happen, and Minnesota’s ATS success will hang in the balance, considering the Vikings have a dozen field goal spreads (-3 to +3) on the board.
Minnesota Vikings schedule + spot bet: Six more weeks of school
The Vikings’ 2025 slate ranks sixth in SOS with stiff competition and a nasty stretch that has the team playing at home only once between September 28 and November 2.
Two international stops look like pain points early on, but truth be told, those overseas affairs will greatly benefit this team and McCarthy.
Following a soft entry into pro football, which starts with Chicago, Atlanta, and Cincinnati (Viking favorites in all three games), Minnesota travels to Dublin to play Pittsburgh in Week 4 and to London to face Cleveland in Week 5.
That two-week span will take on a training camp-like feel with the team far away from off-field distractions and sequestered together with nothing but football to keep them busy. A subsequent bye in Week 6 will allow McCarthy and the coaching staff time to assess and adjust before shit hits the fan versus Philadelphia in Week 7.
Minnesota then draws six road games in nine weeks, including four in five weeks between Week 12 and Week 16. The look-ahead lines have the Vikings set as underdogs in nine of their final 12 games after starting out as chalk in each of the first five games of 2025.
Spot bet: Week 16 at N.Y. Giants -2.5, 42.5
That span of six roadies in nine weeks comes to a close in the Meadowlands on December 21.
Not only is this a draining schedule spot (fourth road game in five weeks), but letdown and look-ahead situations could take their toll on Minnesota in Week 16.
The Vikings will be coming off a Week 15 Sunday night showdown at Dallas and looking past the lowly Giants to a short week showdown with the rival Lions on Thursday, which also happens to be Christmas Day.
Travel, playoff seeding, and holiday plans collide in what will likely be a cold-weather game for this indoor offense.
J.J. to J.J.
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Win MVP | +10000 |
| Win Offensive Player of the Year | +1100 |
| Over 1250.5 Receiving Yards | -130 |
| Under 1250.5 Receiving Yards | +100 |
| Over 9.5 Receiving Touchdowns | -110 |
| Under 9.5 Receiving Touchdowns | -110 |
Justin Jefferson best bet: Over 1,250.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Justin Jefferson proved that he’s the No. 1 receiver in the NFL by lifting the ghost of Sam Darnold to MVP-calibre play in 2024.
J.J. finished second in the league in receiving yards last year, and the only season he didn’t eclipse this current total was a 10-game 2023 in which he still hauled in 1,074 yards.
Sure, the schedule features more than a few dominant defenses, but O’Connell would be stupid to dial back the pass and nullify his best weapon. Player projections are all over the place 1 between 1,600 and 1,400 yards — but they all come in Over this prop number.
Minnesota Vikings trend: Low Unders
In two seasons, defensive coordinator Brian Flores has turned Minnesota into one of the most dangerous stop units in the land.
Flores’ crew has lived up to the hype when bookies go low on the Over/Under total. Minnesota is 7-13 O/U when facing closing numbers of 45.5 points or less (15-5 SU) since 2023. That includes a 3-6 O/U count versus sub-46 totals in 2024.
With a rookie QB and a schedule packed with defensive push back, look-ahead totals hand the Vikes 11 numbers of 45.5 points or less in 2025 (not total for Week 18 finale).
More NFL team previews
Want to see Jason's forecast for the rest of the NFL? Check out all of his NFL team previews below!
| Bills | Ravens | Texans | Broncos |
| Dolphins | Bengals | Colts | Chiefs |
| Patriots | Browns | Jaguars | Raiders |
| Jets | Steelers | Titans | Chargers |
| Cowboys | Bears | Falcons | Cardinals |
| Giants | Lions | Panthers | Rams |
| Eagles | Packers | Saints | 49ers |
| Commanders | Vikings | Buccaneers | Seahawks |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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