The Green Bay Packers have 20 regular-season wins since handing the reins to quarterback Jordan Love in 2023. That’s more than 22 other NFL franchises in that span. The Packers won 11 of those games in 2024, but not all victories are worth the same.
Green Bay couldn’t hang with the league’s elite last season, and going back to 2023, several of the Cheeseheads’ wins were served on a silver charcuterie board.
Bookmakers have the Packers tagged as point spread favorites in 13 games in 2025 — tied for third most in the NFC — and futures have them competing for the NFC North crown and punching a postseason ticket for the third straight year.
But after unpacking the Packers' potential, I’m feeling a little lactose intolerant when it comes to Green Bay’s betting odds.
Here’s my 2025 Green Bay Packers NFL betting preview.
Green Bay Packers best bets
Read on for Jason's full analysis and Green Bay Packers breakdown!
Green Bay Packers odds for 2025
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +2000 |
| Win conference | +1000 |
| Win division | +260 |
| Make playoffs | -130 |
| Over 9.5 wins | -105 |
| Under 9.5 wins | -115 |
Best futures bet: Under 9.5 wins (-115)
The Green Bay Packers were 0-5 straight up against teams that finished four or more games above .500 last season (0-6 if you count the playoff loss to Philly), bleeding into a 1-5 SU mark against the NFC North.
If we sort through Green Bay’s victories since Jordan Love started looking like a pro QB in the home stretch of 2023, we see a who’s who of dogshit quarterbacks on the other side.
That impressive postseason push two years ago featured the likes of Justin Fields (x2), Derek Carr, Bryce Young, Brett Rypien, and a duo of Nick Mullens/Jaren Hall.
Last year, the Pack took down Anthony Richardson, Will Levis, Trevor Lawrence, rookie Caleb Williams, Brandon Allen, Sam Howell (after Geno Smith was injured), and Spencer Rattler.
Those equate to 13 of the Packers’ 20 wins the past two seasons.
This year’s schedule has a few soft spots, but the QB competition is much stronger. The schedule gets rough in November, as there are only two games at Lambeau in the final six weeks, and there aren’t many gimmies with Green Bay’s "easiest" games coming on the road.
Green Bay Packers at a glance: Swiss cheese or hard cheddar?
The Packers are good but not great. Green Bay has been solid enough to qualify for the Wild Card the past two seasons, yet turned out a ho-hum 18-16 ATS record in the process.
The defense was the big surprise of 2024. New defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley finished with a Top 5 stop unit in many measurements, but how many of those stats were trickling down from pop-gun opponents? In six losses, the Packers gave up an average of 29 points.
The offense was anchored in the run in 2024, but after paying Love a monster deal last season, Green Bay wants to see returns through the air. The passing attack is already behind schedule with Love missing time due to thumb surgery this summer.
What will win bets: Passing
I'm not pointing out the passing game as an overwhelming strength. I'm saying if the Cheeseheads cover those 13 spreads as favorites and hang as underdogs, it will be because this passing attack picks up the slack.
Only Baltimore and Philadelphia ran the ball more than the Packers last season. That ground-centric attack was enough to move the chains and keep rival offenses parked on the sideline, resulting in a 9-8 ATS record.
The Packers have a deep receiving corps with OK options, but not a true top target that demands the attention of defenses. That's what Green Bay wants out of first-rounder Matthew Golden. Cleaning up the drops will go a long way after the Pack put the fourth-most balls on the turf last year.
What will lose bets: Defense
With the bulk of starters back and Hafley entering Year 2 as DC, the expectation is improvement from the Packers’ defense in 2025.
Adding up the parts, however, you find Green Bay’s stop unit is a little “meh” and this group could be due for regression after snatching 31 takeaways last year (fourth most).
Those fumbles and interceptions are hard to replicate, especially when the defensive front isn’t cooking up constant pressure or bringing the blitz.
As mentioned, the QB competition steps up in 2025, with arms like Jared Goff (x2), Jayden Daniels, Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson taking snaps. The ceiling is also high for Williams and J.J. McCarthy, who Green Bay will face twice.
Green Bay Packers schedule + spot bet: Long way from Lambeau
The Packers get the No. 7 slate in SOS, playing in a very competitive NFC North and mixing in NFC East and AFC North foes — two other loaded divisions. That makes for several tight spreads, a dozen of which sit between a field goal (-3 to +3).
The back half of the calendar is working against the Cheeseheads, with only three home games in the final eight weeks. That takes away a major edge for the Packers, who are reliant on those cold Wisconsin winters.
Under Matt LaFleur, Green Bay is 7-3 SU (8-6 ATS) at home between Week 14 and Week 18 since 2019.
The Packers are favorites in 13 games, with seven of those spreads coming as road chalk. Green Bay is just 5-9 ATS (9-5 SU) as an away favorite the past four seasons, including 2-4 ATS in those spots since moving on to Love at QB.
Spot bet: Week 13 at Detroit +2.5, 48.5
The Packers’ Thanksgiving feast comes with a bitter side of schedule spot. They’ll be playing their fourth game in 17 days when they head to Detroit on Thursday, November 27.
Due to a Monday Night Football spot at Philadelphia in Week 10, the Packers play a game every 4.25 days in this stretch, including two travel tilts. That demand leaves little time for prep, practice, and recovery.
I’m buying the Lions under the field goal as home favorites ahead of Turkey Day.
Nothing but Love for you
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Win MVP | +2200 |
| Lead NFL in Passing Yards | +2200 |
| Over 3550.5 Passing Yards | -110 |
| Under 3550.5 Passing Yards | -110 |
| Over 24.5 Touchdown Passes | -130 |
| Under 24.5 Touchdown Passes | +100 |
Jordan Love best bet: Over 3,550.5 passing yards (-110)
The Packers aren’t paying Love $220 million to hand the ball off. Green Bay will press pass more in 2025 and hopes rookie WR Matthew Golden can finally be the true No. 1 it’s been missing.
I’m not as optimistic about the Packers as some, and this team could find itself trailing more often than not against a schedule loaded with top-tier attacks. That forces LaFleur to dial up the passing plays.
Love’s season-long projections all jibe with each other — which is rare — with all models calling for around 4,030 yards. That’s more than enough to top this modest passing prop.
Green Bay Packers trend: Home covers
We touched on the Packers’ late-season edge at Lambeau Field, and overall, Green Bay is a solid bet at home.
Under LaFleur (since 2019), the Cheeseheads make that cheddar at a 63% clip as hosts, with a 10-7 ATS mark at home in two seasons with Love under center.
We might get to see Green Bay as a rare home underdog in Week 17. The look-ahead line is currently Packers +1.5 vs. Baltimore. They’re 6-2 SU and ATS as home pups since 2019.
More NFL team previews
Want to see Jason's forecast for the rest of the NFL? Check out all of his NFL team previews below!
| Bills | Ravens | Texans | Broncos |
| Dolphins | Bengals | Colts | Chiefs |
| Patriots | Browns | Jaguars | Raiders |
| Jets | Steelers | Titans | Chargers |
| Cowboys | Bears | Falcons | Cardinals |
| Giants | Lions | Panthers | Rams |
| Eagles | Packers | Saints | 49ers |
| Commanders | Vikings | Buccaneers | Seahawks |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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