NHL Picks

I’m expecting the building to be loud and for the boo birds to be squawking all night long.

However, from a betting perspective, I actually like the Over on Marner’s shot prop. He’ll be motivated by his return tonight, and I fully expect him to shoot the puck quite often in an attempt to make a difference in the game.

His total is set at 2.5 shots. He went over that number in the last meeting and has registered 3+ shots in five of his last seven games. 

Additionally, both teams have been hitting the Over with regularity, combining to go 54-40-4 between the two clubs this season with Toronto topping the 6.5 goal mark in five of its last six games, while Vegas is 6-3-1 to the Over in its last 10. 

Toronto also averages 3.57 goals on home ice this season, and with Marner in town, I expect them to be extra-motivated tonight.

As for Vegas, they’re coming off a tight loss to Boston last night, but have been filling the net with authority lately, averaging 4.2 goals over their last 10 games, including a six-spot last week. 

Tampa Bay has won 13 of its past 14 games, with 10 of those wins coming by at least a two-goal margin.

Raddysh has picked up three or more shots in 11 of his past 17 games for 49 total on 110 attempts, and his 7.0 shots and 15.71 attempts per 60 minutes during the stretch respectively rank sixth and 10th among blueliners. This is a plus-matchup, too. Chicago has surrendered the most shots per game to opposing defensemen while also averaging the second-most shorthanded time per game, and Raddysh is cemented into a shooting role on the No. 1 power-play unit.

Olofssonskated on the top line last game with the team’s point and goal leader and also ran on PP1 against a Flyers penalty kill that has allowed 10 goals over its last six games. This role is not priced correctly across the board. A point should be closer to a -180/-190 fair price, yet the assist sits at +155 and 2+ points is +400. For context, Nathan MacKinnon, who shares the line and PP1, is -165 for 2+ points tonight. The increased role hasn’t been baked in yet, highlighted by a season-high 21:11 of ice time last game compared to his 13:15 average, and the matchup is elite.

The Avalanche are the league's best team at keeping the puck out and they're at their best at home, allowing just 2.08 goals per game. Against a low-event Flyers team that plays solid defense and ranks 32nd in pace, this is not a matchup we should expect fireworks. The projected return of Dan Vladar, who has drastically outperformed backup Sam Ersson this season, should also help keep the goals down.

The Calgary Flames have allowed the second-fewest goals per home game (2.42) while sporting the seventh-highest team save percentage at five-on-five. Calgary has also been particularly strong defensively in the first period with just 12 goals allowed across 24 home games. It’s been a huge reason the first-period Under has cashed in 16 of the last 25 games at the Saddledome dating back to last season.

The Kraken have surrendered the 10th most shots per game and second-most attempts per 60 minutes out of the holiday break, so with Seattle also allowing the third-most shots per game to opposing defensemen, this is a soft matchup for LaCombe in this market. While his shot volume has been down recently with just nine on 19 attempts across his past eight games, he’s posted a solid 52.1 Corsi For percentage and 52.3% shot share at five-on-five during the stretch while logging a healthy 23:01 of ice time per night.

Boeser is having a respectable campaign for the Canucks, scoring 11 goals and tallying 13 assists. With Kiefer Sherwood also gone now, he’s going to have even more opportunities. Boeser stepped up and delivered in the victory versus Washington, scoring once and tallying an assist. In 22 home appearances, Boeser has posted 10 points, scoring five times and setting up another five. While he didn’t have a point against the Devils earlier this season, he has cashed the Over in two of his last four outings. 

Hughes is mired in a 14-game goal drought, and while his underlying numbers aren’t elite, he’s still generated 4.29 individual expected goals on 21 high-danger scoring chances during the slump. With the Canucks allowing three or more goals in each of their past 12 games for 4.33 per and the fourth-most expected goals per 60 minutes, the pendulum swings in Hughes’ favor tonight.

Will Smith has at least one point in 56% of his games and 65% on home ice. He has a mouthwatering matchup vs. a New York Rangers team that has conceded 39 goals over 7 games (5.57 per) since Igor Shesterkin joined Adam Fox on the sidelines.

The Mammoth are riding a four-game winning streak and an 8-1-1 run. The Predators’ inconsistent offense and struggling goaltending can’t match Utah’s depth, making this a great spot to back the league’s most confident team.