There aren’t many matches bigger than England against Argentina, a game with a deep history both on and off the pitch, and this is the first time that Lionel Messi will have played in the matchup. England are slight favorites to advance at -125, with the reigning champions at +115.
It feels like there’s something different about this England team, which has shown dogged resilience throughout, and they’re more well-rounded than Argentina, who have advanced thanks to moments of magic.
That's why my England vs. Argentina predictions and World Cup picks expect England to advance into Sunday’s World Cup finale when this game kicks off at 3 p.m. ET on FOX.
England vs Argentina predictions
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Who will win England vs Argentina: England to advance (-125)
Argentina might be the defending champs, but the starting lineup is largely unchanged from that victory, and another four years on the legs will have an impact. There’s always the Lionel Messi factor at play when Argentina are on the field, and the little maestro is the dangerman, but Thomas Tuchel has shown that he’s a smart tactician.
Indeed, England have consistently found ways to change games through substitutions, such as bringing on Djed Spence late in games, or through tactical tweaks from the manager. Meanwhile, Argentina have found their way through games off the back of moments of magic from their players, often Lionel Messi.
The difficulty with magic is that it’s hard to replicate time and again, whereas Tuchel’s ability to change games via subs and tweaks is something that can come into play again if England need it.
While Julián Álvarez has played well, it’s hard to argue against Argentina being too reliant on Messi at this stage, whereas England are seeing success in several areas. Jude Bellingham, in particular, has been the standout and is arguably the player of the tournament so far, with his leadership in midfield, work rate, and late runs into the box pushing England to new heights.
I’d play England advancing up to -135.
COVERS INTEL: Statistically, Argentina have had the easiest route to a World Cup semifinal in history in terms of FIFA World Ranking, facing Algeria (28th), Austria (24th), Jordan (63rd), Cape Verde (67th), Egypt (29th), and Switzerland (19th) ahead of this match.England vs Argentina Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 (+129)
With both teams better in attack than defense, I love the Over. One of the main reasons why I’m confident in goals, as well as England advancing, is Argentina’s fullbacks. Neither Nahuel Molina nor Nicolas Tagliafico is an elite defender, and we’ve seen other teams have real success down the flanks against Argentina.
It doesn’t help those fullbacks that Argentina don’t have traditional wingers, which can often leave them exposed and in one-on-one matchups. We saw Cape Verde and Egypt in particular cause them real issues on the counterattack in wide positions.
That’s the area in which England win this game and score goals. Anthony Gordon is quick down the left and can get in behind Molina, putting him up against Cristian Romero, who might also struggle with his pace. On the right, both possible options, Bukayo Saka and Noni Madueke, have both the pace and trickery to really isolate Tagliafico.
However, England have conceded goals in four of six games thus far and have played a different back four in every single game. That has added an element of uncertainty to the defense, and Argentina should be able to capitalize.
See who will have the best opportunities to score goals in our World Cup set-piece takers guide.
England vs Argentina projected lineup
England (4-2-3-1): Pickford; James, Konsa, Guehi, O’Reilly; Rice, Anderson; Saka, Bellingham, Gordon; Kane
Argentina (4-1-2-1-2): E. Martínez; Molina, Romero, L. Martínez, Tagliafico; Paredes; De Paul, Mac Allister; Fernández; Messi, Álvarez
England vs Argentina injuries
England: Jarrell Quansah DEF (Out)
Argentina: No key injuries to report.
England vs Argentina weather
The heat won't matter inside the dome in Atlanta.
England vs Argentina odds
 England |
 Argentina |
|
|---|---|---|
| +162 | Moneyline | +200 |
| +200 | Draw | +200 |
| Over 2.5 (+129) | Total | Under 2.5 (-160) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch England vs Argentina
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Wednesday, July 15, 2026 |
| Time | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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