College Football Picks

Lowry has surpassed this number in seven of his last nine contests. This number is an overreaction to his last two games, which bear little resemblance to this matchup, and he averaged 170.9 passing yards in the seven games prior. 

Western Michigan may be fortunate to reach this spot, but the combination of Broc Lowry’s dynamic rushing ability and the Broncos’ elite red-zone defense gives them a real edge over freshman quarterback Thomas Gotkowski and the Miami RedHawks.

The Big 12 title game is a rematch of a November 8 meeting in Lubbock, where the Red Raiders and their ferocious defensive line overwhelmed Bear Bachmeier and the Cougars in a 29-7 final. But that final score could easily have been 49-7. The Red Raiders' defense suffocated BYU, holding them to 2.5 yards per carry while limiting Bachmeier to 23-for-38 passing for 188 yards with a touchdown and a pick. I don't expect much to change this time around.

Douglas scored against BYU in their regular season meeting, and is only getting more usage as of late, scoring six touchdowns in his last five games.

I was a little surprised to see Alabama as the underdog in the SEC Championship Game against Georgia. It feels like recency bias is in play here. Bama struggled to put away an average Auburn team, even though its a rivalry game on the road, and lost to Oklahoma, despite massively outgaining them. Sure, it's a close matchup, but the Tide outplayed and beat the Dawgs in Athens in their early-season meeting and have been the more consistent team for the majority of the year. There is value with Alabama as underdogs here.

Alabama beat Georgia on the road despite allowing 227 rushing yards at nearly seven yards a carry. It did so by getting stops on third down, and limiting scoring chances.

Indiana has allowed some strong games to tight ends this season. And with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Take drawing major attention on the outside, Max Klare should benefit.

The Ohio State tight end has registered at least 30 receiving yards in just five games this season, but he’s caught at least four passes in six of his last eight. Julian Sayin has targeted his tight end 25 times over the past four games, with at least six in three of those contests.

I’m expecting Klare to have an uptick in usage here, especially with Sayin facing a stronger pass rush than usual.That will help the Buckeye tight end clear his total as he becomes an important part of the gameplan on Saturday.  

Jeremiah Smith is an amazing receiver, but D'Angelo Ponds knows how to deal with him.

He did so often in practice when the two were high school teammates, and last year he held him to just one catch for nine yards when they were matched up.

The Indiana corner has allowed just 120 receiving yards this season on 39 targets, and is one of the best lockdown corners in college football.

Smith has been held under 50 yards four times this season, including against Texas, and this presents a solid spot to cash his receiving yard Under for the third straight game. 

Too short of a price given how much usage he'll see around the redzone, would play to -150.

Duke’s bottom-tier, explosion-prone pass defense and a possible chase script for Virginia make this yardage number simply too low, playable up to 234.5.