College Football Picks

Indiana wins so decisively, Fernando Mendoza has fallen short of this modest prop in five of his last six games. But the Hoosiers' push for Mendoza's Heisman chances is hitting a higher gear right now, so expect Indiana to emphasize his stats against a woeful Wisconsin passing defense. There is a reason opponents throw against the Badgers at the third-highest relative rate in the country.

In the simplest terms, Wisconsin is ripe for a letdown moment, no matter how underwhelming beating Washington would be for most teams. In the more dooming terms, Indiana enjoys one of the best passing offenses in the country, and it should run up the score on the Badgers' defense. As Wisconsin struggles to score in any way, running up the score could become laughable.

Pittsburgh's pass-heavy offense should stall out against Notre Dame, only giving the Irish the ball back quickly and repeatedly. The Panthers' defense is good, but it is susceptible where it matters most. Notre Dame should turn quality possessions into touchdowns, meaning those repeated possessions turn into repeated touchdowns.

Northwestern's defense is too good to turn down this many points, especially with the Wildcats playing so close to home.

I simply don't know how South Carolina scores enough to stay within this number.

Oklahoma State has a terrible secondary (133rd in EPA per pass and 134th in passing success rate allowed) and Brown will capitalize.

Arkansas ranks 14th in rushing success rate, ninth in quality drive rate, and 33rd in points per quality drive. And Bobby Petrino discussed the importance of running the ball this week against LSU.

The Tigers allow a 42.6% success rate against the run, rank 120th in scramble rate against, and 101st in scramble EPA. Taylen Green's rushing ability will help open things up for Mike Washington, Jr and his receivers on the outside.

The Tigers are coming off a tough loss to Alabama, have a sleepy early kickoff, and are trying to figure out their quarterback situation. I'll take the team coming off a bye that can put up points in bunches, built to capitalize on LSU's biggest defensive weaknesses. 

The Mountaineers operate at a fast tempo (third in snaps per minute) and prefer to keep the rock on the ground (13th in rush rate). With only one other healthy scholarship back on the roster, this equates to a monster workload for Hubbard every week.

West Virginia's offense has been moribund for much of the season, in no small part due to injuries. Arizona State's offense has not been an asset in well more than a month, now looking worse without QB Sam Leavitt. Yet both of these are quality defenses. The Big 12 of lore should cringe at this Big Ten West-quality game on Saturday.

Bond leads the ACC in receptions (73) and ranks fourth in the conference in receiving yards (733). Boston College is a 16.5-point underdog to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, meaning the game script calls for the Eagles to be playing from behind against a Georgia Tech secondary ranking 91st in EPA per pass, 97th in passing success rate allowed. Tech has allowed an average of 312.3 passing yards in its last three games.

NC State is giving up 292.4 yards per game, the second-worst number in the country, and Toney is Miami's go-to option in the passing attack

Credit Texas Tech's defense for what should be an easy cover. UCF's Team Total is set at 10.5 or 11.5, depending on your sportsbook, and the Red Raiders have held seven of their last eight opponents under their respective Team Totals. Keeping the Knights to single digits this weekend should give plenty of cushion to Texas Tech's offense to clear this spread.

The Tide have been rolling ever since their season-opening loss to Florida State. QB Ty Simpson has been great, but the offense is one-dimensional and this Oklahoma defense will be their toughest test. Plus, this is a must-win game for the Sooners. I'm betting the OU defense balls out and we get a heroic performance from John Mateer. 

The Sooners have allowed each of their last two opponents to throw for more than 300 yards, as Mississippi (315) and Tennessee (393) both found unmitigated success. Simpson and Williams, who averages a team-high 2.56 yards per route run, are more than good enough to find some successful plays through the air.

USC's biggest weakness this year has been stopping the run, and Iowa's built to take advantage. The Trojans rank 76th defensively in EPA/rush, with opponents posting a 46.8% success rate that ranks 122nd in college football. Those struggles stem from a front seven that ranks in the Bottom 10 nationally in yards allowed before contact.

The Hawkeyes have one of the most lopsided run rate above expected marks in college football, and a mobile quarterback in Mark Gronowski who can make plays with his legs. USC ranks 103rd in EPA on designed QB runs this year.

Keeping this high-powered Trojan offense on the sideline is the best way for the Hawkeyes to neutralize it, but Iowa also ranks seventh in EPA/dropback and 20th in completion rate against.

Iowa hasn't lost consecutive regular season games in over three years, having won nine times following a defeat. The Hawkeyes will push it to 10 here. 

Kamari Moulton has gone Over this number in five straight games and should continue getting plenty of work against a poor USC rush defense (126th in rushing success rate allowed) on a rainy day.

Virginia needs quarterback Chandler Morris, but it seems distinctly possible he may miss this week due to injury. If so, then Duke should be favored by nearly double digits, largely as credit to the Blue Devils' defense. Taking this -6.5 on Sunday is an attempt at getting ahead of that possible line move, while knowing even with Morris, Duke will have homefield advantage and the better defense in this massive ACC tilt.

Most of the sharp money is on the Under with 46% of the money on the Under despite only getting 3% of the bets.

Coastal Carolina has rushed for 1,070 yards in its last four games, averaging 5.82 yards per carry while rushing at least 41 times in each game.

Expect the Chanticleers to run it down the throats of the Eagles, who rank second-worst nationally in success rate against the run, and 120th in EPA/rush.

Georgia Southern's offense isn't particularly good at anything, and a stalled drive or two will be hard to overcome. The Chanticleers rank Top 20 in red zone ofense, while Georgia Southern ranks 124th in red zone scoring defense. 

Coastal Carolina is  5-1 ATS in its last six, winning four of those games outright as an underdog. The Chanticleers still control their own destiny in terms of reaching the Sun Belt Championship game, and they won’t let it slip away here. 

This is a mismatch nightmare for the Gators. Ole Miss thrives on hitting big passes, and the Gators have been giving them up in bunches of late. The Rebels also rank ninth in rushing EPA and 11th in passing EPA, while embarking on quality drives at a high rate.

The Rebels are highly motivated, while Florida is banged up and trying to figure out who should play quarterback. This isn't the game to have that conundrum. 

Florida is 0-4 ATS on the road this season, and failing to cover by an average of more than 15 points. Take the Rebels to make this one ugly. 

Wallace is the leading reciever for the Rebels, and is a top pick to score for them each week, even if he only has two touchdowns on the year so far.

While Klare has only one touchdown on the year, he’s been a bigger part of the Ohio State offense than that number would suggest. If he continues to get that sort of usage, he has every opportunity of ending his scoreless streak.

The Bruins can’t stop the run at all (134th in rushing success rate allowed), surrendering 191.1 yards per game on the ground. Jackson has racked up 180 rushing yards in his last two games.

In five games with a one-possession spread this season, Georgia has trailed or been tied at halftime in all five games. Worse yet, the Bulldogs were favored in all five of those games and thus in all five of those first halves. Georgia's greatest strength this year has been halftime adjustments, something Texas can take advantage of for 30 minutes on Saturday.

With how both of these teams are able to hit explosive pass plays, I’m leaning Over. Georgia ranks in the Top 30 in explosive pass rate, 14th in pressure rate allowed, and fifth in yards after catch. 

Texas defends the run well, but Georgia can throw the ball enough to put up points. Just look at Vanderbilt and Mississippi State, who routinely connected on big pass plays downfield.

And as good as Georgia’s defense has been, Ole Miss showed you can find success against the Dawgs without running the ball. The Rebels repeatedly hit on big throws downfield as they scored 35 points.

While I don’t think this game will come close to the 78 points those teams combined for, I think we have a total that has dipped a bit too low. 

His increased role recently against such a leaky rushing defense makes this as play at anything above -175.