College Football Picks

This is a bad mismatch on both sides of the ball, and Boise State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a double-digit favorite.

Friendly matchup, and Daniels was averaging 33.5 rushing yards per game before the Texas Tech matchup, which is an anomaly.

Hill is capable of running the balanced Memphis offense and can put points on the board against a Bulls defense that’s allowed 26 or more points in two of its previous three games.

Memphis is one of the best cover teams in the AAC and can be trusted to cover the spread.

Rutgers has the worst defense of any power conference school in the nation. Oregon just rushed for 400 yards against the Scarlet Knights, scoring touchdowns on seven straight possessions after fumbling it away on the third play of the game.

Purdue moved the ball well against Northwestern but turnovers bit the Boilermakers, as they have many times before. This isn't a game where that should be an issue.

The Purdue defense isn't great, but it's better than what it'll face on Saturday. Regardless of the quarterback, the Boilermakers will move the ball on the ground and get their first conference win of the season at home. 

Indiana has cleared its Team Total in five of its last six games, falling short only at Iowa, hardly a worrying misstep. The Hoosiers' offense is firing on all cylinders, obviously led by the No. 1 passing offense in the country in terms of expected points added per dropback, per CFB-graphs.com. UCLA's defense has improved immensely in recent weeks, but opponents still know to best attack it through the air. Indiana will be glad to show why.

Wilde dominates the Northwestern receiving room like few other receivers do across the country, and this yardage prop is too low given his consistent production.

North Carolina faces its toughest test yet in the Bill Belichick era, and there's nothing to suggest that the Tar Heels can even keep it close against Virginia.

Oklahoma has the better quarterback, the better defensive, arguably the best defensive line in the country and is at home. The Sooners should be favored by more than a touchdown. There is no need to overthink this.

Chambliss has scored a touchdown in each of his last two games, showing clearly he’s a formidable weapon for Mississippi’s offense.

With Oklahoma’s defense as robust as it is, I’m betting Chambliss finds his way into the end zone in this SEC matchup.  

Horton isn't getting a lot of catches, but he's doing the most with his opportunities, as he's scored five times already this year.

The Crimson Tide are rolling. Pun intended. Bama has won six in a row with QB Ty Simpson looking like a legit Heisman Trophy candidate. Alabama has averaged 31.2 points in its five wins against Power Four teams, and now faces a South Carolina defense that has struggled and ranks 119th in success rate on dropbacks.

Sherrill has six touchdowns this year for the Commodores, and is a great pick to find the endzone again at plus money against LSU.

These offenses are good. They have clear paths to regularly scoring. The exploits of Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia are well noted, but the offense has quietly turned into a well-rounded unit. Multiple things can be true. Vandy ranks 4th overall in EPA per rush, and a big part of that is Pavia on the ground. Missouri has done a pretty good job of slowing down QB runs throughout the season. However, they haven’t been great overall at slowing down traditional runs, ranking just 70th nationally in EPA allowed per rush. I think other runners outside of Pavia can have success in this matchup and give Vandy consistent offense.

It's much more advantageous to take the points than to lay them with a low total (38.5). I haven't been overly impressed with Iowa like the market has. They just beat a team with an interim coach and they beat a Wisconsin team that's gonna have an interim coach in a few weeks.

BYU is in the final game of a six-week, six-game gauntlet. But I think the Cougars are being discounted too much here.

Iowa State lost to Colorado before the bye week, and struggled with a dual-threat quarterback. Bear Bachmeier will be able to hurt a defense ranked 67th in rush success against and 72nd in third-down success. 

The Cougars are one of the most effective rushing teams in college football, and have a defense that generates a solid havoc rate and limits explosive runs. They also rank Top 20 in third-down rate, against an Iowa State offense ranked 88th in moving the chains. 

I'll take the better team, tired or not, to get the win.

BYU can defend, allowing 24 points or less in all but one game this season. They rank second in the Big 12 in scoring, allowing 15.6 points per game, while ranking inside the Top 4 in both rush and pass yards against. The Cougars can win outright on the road, and getting those 2.5 points is simply gravy.

Texas Tech knows it has no worries against Oklahoma State. The playbook should be treated as such, as vanilla as possible. The Red Raiders will ready for the Cowboys broadly, but not specifically. There is no reason to.

Cincinnati's trenches are underappreciated. This Baylor defense just gave up 42 points to TCU. The Bears' defensive woes are too many to slow the Bearcats, and without slowing them, it may be a long night.

Arch Manning hasn't handled road environments very well. He led just three scoring drives at Florida in 13 possessions, and should've lost at Kentucky last week as he completed just 12 of 27 passes.

He's facing a Mississippi State defense that ranks sixth in interceptions, and seventh in interception rate against. The Bulldogs also love to run the ball, which should shorten the number of possessions available to both teams.

Texas will need to run the ball to help Manning, but the Longhorns rank 116th in late-down success, 105th in available yards, and 110th in EPA/pass. And the Longhorns have not scored 24 points in four games against power conference foes.

Manning will struggle with the incessant cowbell ringing and Texas will not get to 28 points.

Unlike Bruce Dickinson, the last thing Arch Manning needs is more cowbell. But the Mississippi State faithful are gonna give him all he can handle. 

Manning routinely missed wide-open throws against a Kentucky secondary that has given up big pass plays often this season. And he's looked rattled in both of his SEC road starts.

The Bulldogs have the best rushing success rate of any team in the nation, and they've nearly gotten that "big" win against both Florida and Tennessee. They fell just short over the weekend, but the cowbells will get to Manning and they'll get the win on Saturday. 

Stanford is third in the conference in time of possession. If they can sustain a few drives and come away with touchdowns, with that deep bag of points given, they should be able to stay within earshot of the Hurricanes.

Williams has 60+ yards in four consecutive contests while averaging 100.1 receiving yards per game

Reed will need to use his legs as much as his arm to help Texas A&M beat LSU, which has me backing him to add to his touchdown total.

Could LSU still make the Playoff? Absolutely. But the writing is on the wall: The Tigers went all-in on the 2025 season and are going to fall short of all their goals. This locker room may be on the verge of discord following last week's humbling loss at Vanderbilt. Texas A&M is not who you want to face when already stumbling. The Aggies should bludgeon the Tigers into submission this week, led by a defense that excels in late-down situations, a strength that could exacerbate LSU's surprising offensive struggles.

Underwood averaged 28.9 rushing yards per game, so his prop of 16.5 rushing yards stands out as a discount. The Spartans have a very poor defense overall (128th in success rate allowed) and struggle against the run (111th in rushing success rate), primarily due to a soft defensive front (133rd in power success rate). 

True freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood has had a few growing pains this season, but there is no denying his raw talent. He is also an incredible athlete and can make huge plays in the running game when the coaching staff allows him to do so. Michigan State ranks in the bottom half of the country in team sacks. If they are unable to get sacks on Bryce Underwood, then he should not need to take off too often to easily hit this number. There will be plenty of pass plays for Michigan in this game and I think he scrambles a few times to get this even if he gets no designed runs.

Miller has gone Over this number in five of his last six. He is averaging an eye-popping 18.6 yards per reception and possesses the requisite size and athleticism to keep Utah’s corners honest. 

There are few players as integral to their team’s success as Devon Dampier. I can’t comfortably say that the Utes will win this game by two scores with him hobbled.