College Football Picks

Bond has more targets (81) than all but one other ACC receiver and benefits from playing an SMU secondary that allows 300 passing yards per game.

Neither defense is built to get off the field, and points should pile up fast. I’m expecting a wild Big 12 conference matchup in Morgantown on Saturday.

One can understandably worry this full-game spread has gotten a bit hefty, at -10.5 at FanDuel. But the first-half spread within a touchdown should be seen as a chance to trust Texas Tech's offense, somehow an underappreciated unit this season. The Red Raiders have covered the first-half spread in three of their four Power Four games with QB Behren Morton in the lineup.

Douglas has three touchdowns in the past two weeks, and Texas Tech will be throwing the ball plenty in what should be a close matchup with BYU.

Recent form trending up, Mississippi State’s run defense is vulnerable, and an expected Georgia lead should boost his volume

Mississippi State has a severe weakness stopping the run thanks to its sub-SEC defensive front, whereas Georgia has been effective running the ball.

Penn State is struggling to throw the ball without Drew Allar, and stopping the run has been a problem for its defense.

Enter the Hoosiers, who present the most balanced offense the Nittany Lions have faced this year. Defensively, they're a dominant unit that puts pressure on the quarterback and will make life miserable for Ethan Grunkemeyer.

Penn State will be in serious trouble once it falls behind, and the inability to connect on passes downfield will allow the Hoosiers to turn this into a blowout in the second half. 

Indiana's rushing defense is ELITE, and Penn State's offense is dreadful all around.

Purdue has not allowed a single qurterback to have more than two passing touchdowns all season. 

Bowling Green's offense did not look better in Drew Pyne's return. The thought had been the immense struggles were entirely tied to Pyne's injury, but losing to Kent State emphasized otherwise. The Falcons played better, but nowhere near well, and they leaned on the ground game far too much. Eastern Michigan's defense is atrocious, but its rush defense has improved in the last month. That improvement should earn a win at home as a short favorite.

If Rutgers can't throw the ball, then it's not winning. And doing so against this Maryland defense won't be easy.

The Scarlet Knights allow a high amount of havoc in their backfield, and Maryland has 23 sacks on the season. The Terps rank 26th nationally in pressure rate, and are good at forcing turnovers.

Rutgers has possibly the worst defense of any power conference school, ranking 135th in defensive success rate. Maryland's offense isn't great, but it can take advantage of this unit.

The Terps have lost four straight, but prior to the Indiana defeat they lost three by a combined 10 points. They're the better team, and they'll get the dub.

He has only hit this number in two of his last five games.

Reed averages 43.6 yards per game on the ground and 5.5 yards per attempt.

With Syracuse struggling to put together anything on offense and Miami dealing with multiple injuries, the Under is the best approach for bettors in this ACC matchup.

Iowa State is 0-3 against the spread on the road this season and TCU is 3-1 ATS at home. 

Iowa has improved as the season's gone along, and I'm not entirely sure just how good Oregon is. The Ducks lost by more to Indiana and struggled to put up points against Wisconsin.

Oregon hasn't seen many quarterbacks running against its defense, but those who have done so have found success. Mark Gronowski might be more dangerous with his legs than his arm, and the Ducks rank 132nd in EPA on designed QB runs.

It's going to be rainy and cold on Saturday, and the total is quite low. It's setting up for a perfect game for a good running team with a strong defense to get the win at home. The Hawkeyes shouldn't be getting this many points, and I'll back them to win outright. 

Davison has 10 scores on the year and is only seeing his usage increase as he gets deeper into his freshman season for the Ducks.

Vandy’s top-10, pass-efficient offense (5th pass success, 6th EPA/dropback) exploits Auburn’s bottom-40 pass defense, while the Tigers’ sputtering offense limits their ability to keep up; playable to -7.5.

Diego Pavia does not get to beat Hugh Freeze for a third time, but he should still run through Auburn's defense at least once, and that may be all it takes to cover this spread. The Tigers' offense is broken beyond repair. The Commodores should take advantage of that as they try to keep their Playoff hopes alive.

Clemson’s efficient passing attack faces a Florida State defense vulnerable to explosive passes, making Cade Klubnik passing TDs at -172 a +EV play in a likely back-and-forth game.

We're 3-0 going against Clemson as a favorite, and this is another spot where the wrong team is favored.

Florida State ranks 23rd in red zone scoring, 17th in offensive line push on run plays, 18th in quality drive rate, and fourth in points per quality drive. That's bad news for a Clemson defense that isn't holding up in the red zone, and is struggling with EPA/run and EPA/pass.

Add in the fact that the Tigers can't consistently run the ball, and can't defend the red zone, and you've got another situation where the underdog should provide us with profit. 

Two different game states should set up this Over. Either Notre Dame's defense so shuts down Navy's triple-option that the Irish offense gets the ball back repeatedly, thus turning an easy win into a laughable rout, or Notre Dame's defense struggles with one of the most explosive Midshipmen offenses we have seen in years, and Navy propels this game toward its Over.

Notre Dame has held four of their last five opponents to 13 points or less and will contain the Navy run game here. 

I don't know why Alabama would feel the need to throw the ball near the goaline. That makes this price a must play.

Increased volume for Berry lately makes this a very attainable number against a suspect rushing defense.

Kendrick Law leads Kentucky in receiving this year, with 351 yards—but he's notched 377 yards after the catch.

The speedy wideout is used often in the screen game, and now faces a Florida defense ranked 115th in YAC with opponents averaging 4.2 additional yards per completion.

The Gators rank 105th overall in yards allowed per pass attempt, and their average depth of target against of 9.03 yards is among the most in college football.

Law will notch 40+ yards for the fifth time in six games. 

It may not be popular to bet against Hawai'i in the late-night slate, and it may be stunning to believe in Sean Lewis's defense, but both are valid approaches this weekend. San Diego State has found itself in pole position in the Mountain West more thanks to its defense than its offense, most notably thanks to its passing defense. No one throws the ball more than the Rainbows, and that is a failing approach against the Aztecs.