College Football Picks

Trust Chuck Martin when it matters. Betting on head coaches is usually a risky maneuver, but one of these has won a MAC title before, and the other is surprised to be here. Better things are coming for Lance Taylor in time, but this is not that time.

BYU is 2-5 O/U in its last seven games away from home and now faces an elite TTU defense that already put the clamps on once in the first matchup. The Cougars aren't at a big disadvantage when on defense, however, according to most analytics.

Texas Tech's defense has been one of the surest bets in college football season, and a star-studded defensive front should handle BYU's rush-first approach. 

There's some hidden value with Georgia playing in the same stadium two weeks in a row where they'll have the crowd advantage. I also like the revenge factor with two teams that are very comparable from a talent perspective. Alabama won a coin flip game in their most recent meeting and is coming off a game where they won, but got outgained by 131 yards.

Georgia has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games and Alabama has hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games.

The Buckeyes want to run the ball and dominate the clock. They limited Michigan to just 44 offensive snaps this weekend, and their run rate above expected is one of the highest in the nation.

In Penn State’s narrow defeat to the Hoosiers, the Nittany Lions ran the ball 33 times to help set up the play-action game. It led to multiple chunk completions, as Indiana allowed six throws of at least 15 yards on the day. 

It’s hard to see either team putting up consistent scoring. And if Ohio State gets the lead, it’s going to pound the rock and lean on the defense. That will keep this game in the 24-17 or 27-20 realm with the total going Under.

These two teams are near mirror images of one another on paper. But in terms of talent, there's a difference.

Ohio State has NFL players at nearly every position on the field, especially on defense. That defense became just the second in the modern era to hold every opponent below 17 points—and did so while covering the spread in 10 of 12 contests.

The Hoosiers are very good, but they give up too many explosive plays on defense and covered the spread just seven times. That's why I'll back the Buckeyes, who will rely on their run game and defense to hold onto the lead once they get it. 

As much as comedy wants Duke to win, Virginia is the more complete team. Lean into the Cavaliers' offense.