College Football Picks

Rice's unique option offense, brought by head coach Scott Abell from FCS-level Davidson, would confuse the best defenses on a short week. Charlotte's is very much not among the best defenses in the country.

Advanced metrics argue this number should be near a touchdown, but the two reasons that most encourage a bet on UNLV are 1) Dan Mullen's problem as a head coach has never been fall Saturdays and 2) Mullen is savvy enough to let his roster know about its darkhorse possibilities for the College Football Playoff. A convincing win on the road against a fellow Group of Five contender would burgeon those hopes.

I simply don’t trust the Irish defense. They’re not only failing to get stops, but they rank in the 100s nationally in defensive success, defensive net EPA/drive, and net field position. Oh, they also rank 123rd in pass defense success rate, and have one of the lowest havoc rates in college football.

Purdue is finding great success in the passing game, ranked 32nd in passing success rate and 40th in net EPA/drive. The Boilermakers are notching explosive plays both in the air and on the ground, and are in the Top 25 in third down conversion rate.

Notre Dame should win, but by four touchdowns? There’s nothing I’ve seen so far that makes me think the Irish are that much better than Purdue. Take the points.

Purdue’s going to score points here, but Notre Dame will have a strong day offensively as well. USC ran the ball with success using two running backs, and Notre Dame will unleash Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. 

CJ Carr showed he can air it out a bit against the Aggies, and will punish a Purdue defense ranked 126th in EPA/pass. 

The Boilermakers will find some big plays in the passing game and make this game interesting as well. They’ll score 20+ and help push this one closer to 60 points. 

These two offensive lines are too good to not produce some points. Side with Oklahoma to win, because of Brett Venables's defense, but also side with both John Mateer and Jaxson Arnold to find ways to put points on the board. This is rarely meant as a compliment, but there may not have been a matchup in the last decade with more "Johnny Football" vibes from both quarterbacks.

The Jayhawks had the week off to stew over giving away a rivalry game against Missouri, while the Mountaineers are ripe for a letdown after a relatively shocking overtime win against their biggest rival, Pitt. Advanced metrics might suggest this number should be shorter, but those are also giving West Virginia too much credit for that rivalry win against Pittsburgh. To some very real extent, rivarly wins like that one should be diminished in forward-looking math.

This is a bet on Miami scoring in the first quarter. That is not a usual early-week approach, but it applies to a team like Florida that is teetering on ambivalence. If the Hurricanes, while at home, notch a first-quarter touchdown, this spread will jump well into double digits. The expectation should be that the Gators crater under ennui. Such a thought process recognizes value in this spread even if a hook past the touchdown.

The Cowboys have been sound defensively (27th in EPA per play) and can muddy this game enough to stay within the number.

Neither team has experienced offensive success in 2025, and the defense is the more reliable side of the ball for both squads.