College Football Picks

Offensively, UMass can run the ball well enough against a Falcons defense giving up 4.26 yards per carry to extend drives, keep the clock winding, and keep Bowling Green from blowing them out.

UMass can finally be put out of its misery. The Minutemen are 0-11 and set to be the worst team in the FBS in recent history. For some reason, they are hosting Bowling Green on Tuesday afternoon rather than Tuesday night, which just means UMass can begin its needed offseason a few hours earlier than usual, though UMass may as well have begun its offseason long ago. Bowling Green has a program-building process to play for, Eddie George assuredly seeking some urgency to end his first season as an FBS head coach.

Western Michigan has covered the spread in five of its previous seven games, and everything points to the Broncos covering against the Eagles. 

Navy is still in the hunt for the AAC title and an outside shot at the CFP. That will require a win at Memphis on Thanksgiving. But in the spirit of the holiday, I'm betting both defenses will be giving in this one. While most people still associate Navy with the triple option with Blake Horvath under center, this Midshipmen offense can also be explosive through the air, which has been the Tigers' Achilles heel. While the Navy defense has also leaked like a sieve. Navy is 8-2 to the Over this season while Memphis has cashed the Over in four straight.

Iowa should control the trenches, and its ability to control field position makes the Hawkeyes the more reliable side, which is why I’m backing the Hawkeyes to cover the spread. 

This is a high-variance game. I don't know what the frame of mind is for Ole Miss. I think there's a good chance that the Lane Kiffin leaving news breaks before this game and MS State will continue to take money. On top of all that, this is a pro MS State pick. They have plenty to play for with a potnetial Bowl game on the line and we're getting them on the other side of a key number.

The Egg Bowl has cashed the Under in eight consecutive seasons.

The Yellow Jackets have had a rough few weeks. A loss to NC State, followed by a Houdini-like escape against BC, before Pitt likely dashed their ACC title and CFP hopes last week. But they do get a chance to close the season with a signature win vs. rival Georgia. Last year's matchup was the epic eight-OT game, which the Bulldogs won 44-42. And Georgia's defense isn't at the elite level it's been in the past. I don't know if Georgia Tech can pull off the upset with that defense of theirs, but Haynes King should battle enough to go Over this team total.

Georgia Tech has given up 847 yards on 6.42 yards per carry, adjusting for sacks, in the last four games. This worry should only worsen against Georgia. The Bulldogs have the No. 11 rushing EPA in the country, and they should pile up the yardage against the Yellow Jackets' ramblin' wreck of a rush defense.

The Aggies have been one of the best teams to the Over (8-2 O/U) this season, and 51.5 isn’t a very big number to reach

Does Texas have the talent to pull off the upset? Of course, everyone knows that. But, results matter — and A&M’s results have been far more convincing throughout the regular season.

Arizona ran for 174 yards on 34 attempts against Baylor, adjusting for sacks, a 5.1 yards per rush average. Oh, and four touchdowns. The Wildcats were the fourth opponent in five games to average more than five yards per rush against the Bears. Given Houston head coach Willie Fritz's insistence on running the ball at all times, Baylor may be the exact right opponent for the Cougars to end the regular season.

This is the biggest disaparity of the week in my power ratings. I make this closer to a 10-point spread. This is a simple buy-low, sell-high spot where I'm selling Northwestern after back-to-back, down to the wire wins, and buying Illinois low after their upset loss as a touchdown-plus favorite against Wisconsin. Illinois needs it more and they're the fresher team. 

Six of the 10 Alabama games and seven of the 10 Auburn games this season have gone Under the total. 

Even on the road, the Crimson Tide will put away their rivals with ease to stay alive in the playoff picture.