College Football Picks

The Ragin’ Cajuns have played better of late, most notably their rushing offense. Louisiana runs the ball at the 11th-highest relative rate in the country, only more so of late, and that should yield some success. But it should also slow down this game, particularly against a decent Sun Belt rush defense.

Tommy Castellanos is averaging 246.1 passing yards over his last seven games, going Over 235.5 yards six times during that period. He should cook a North Carolina State secondary that is struggling. The Wolfpapck have been torched for 367 passing yards to Miami, 408 to Georgia Tech, 423 to Pitt, and 342 to Notre Dame over the last four games. 

Micah Alejado is averaging 358.8 passing yards across his last five games, and he stands a good chance of continuing his lucrative run against a miserable UNLV defense that surrenders 6.6 yards per play.

I like this spot for Hawaii. They're off a bye, catching UNLV off an overtime game on a short week. I actually think Hawaii is the slightly better team and there's some prior perception built into this line. Also, don't underestimate the "hidden homefield," don't be surprised to see Hawaii have 40% or 50% of the crowd based on my experience of attending this game in Las Vegas in past years.

Ohio State will run up the score against Rutgers, and I'm confident that the Scarlet Knights can contribute enough to get us to the Over on Saturday.

For all of Oklahoma's thrilling qualities, the Sooners struggle where it matters most, averaging just 3.05 points per quality drive, No. 102 in the country. That kind of struggle ruins any confidence in Oklahoma covering a spread of more than a touchdown against a quality opponent, a position the Sooners actually have not been in yet this season.

The Sooners keep almost every opponent below their season average of points allowed and the Tigers have been struggling on offense against good teams.

Baylor's rush defense has become a laughingstock. Admittedly, it started the year as a joke, giving up 307 yards to Auburn in the opener. Utah ran for nearly 400 late on Saturday, just a few weeks after Cincinnati took 50 carries for more than five yards per carry. Enter Arizona and a top-25 rushing offense. The Wildcats should gash the Bears.

Going strictly by the numbers, James Madison should be a full two-touchdown favorite. Going by the motivation at hand as the Dukes try to make a case for a College Football Playoff bid, expect James Madison to press the gas for the whole game. This is one moment in which there should be on risk of a backdoor cover.

Notre Dame has won three Senior Days under Marcus Freeman by a combined score of 124-21. Some of that reflects the quality of opponents, but much of it reflects Freeman's tendency of bettering his team as the season goes along. That was evident as Pittsburgh's supposedly dynamic offense went 2-of-13 on late-down situations last weekend. This aggressive defense now faces a bottom-25 offense in late-down situations, one that has so scuffled for a quarterback since Steve Angeli's injury that it at one point turned to the lacrosse team.

We’re betting Gio Lopez’s passing yards over again (up to 199.5) because he’s cleared 200 in four straight games, Duke’s pass defense is atrocious, and a likely pass-friendly game script sets him up to exploit it.

USC's defense has received some faint praise this season, but it has reverted back to its true self in recent weeks. Oregon's defense has also fallen off in recent weeks, slight defensive letdowns against Iowa and Minnesota that the Trojans' offense should delight in exploiting. Expect this to turn into a shootout, perhaps a moment of assuming whoever has the ball last will win.

Neither team plays at a fast tempo, the pace should be relatively slow. The Ducks will run the ball, keeping the clock ticking, and USC's vaunted offense will be slowed by Oregon's elite defense.

Michigan has struggled to put away bad teams this season and the Terps have lost a lot of close games this year. 

I think Georgia Tech is the slightly better team and if they win, they're in the ACC Championsip game. They're at home with the much more experienced and better quarterback. They also have the much better coaching staff. I question where Pittsburgh is at phycologically and think Georgia Tech is feeling good about themselves after that big 4th quarter rally against Boston College. 

Defensively, BYU is built to shut down what Cincinnati does best. The Cougars allow just 191.5 passing yards per game and only eight passing touchdowns all season, making life difficult for Bearcats quarterback Brendan Sorsby.