NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds: Jahmyr Gibbs Poised for a Career Year?

Jahmyr Gibbs remains the centerpiece of the Detroit Lions’ offense, and with fellow running back David Montgomery dealt to Houston during the offseason, the dynamic playmaker could see an even larger workload heading into his fourth year.

After becoming the highest-paid RB in NFL history, Gibbs headlines the early NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds, though Bijan Robinson and Jonathan Taylor are also in the mix after agreeing to new extensions.

Let's dive into the current NFL odds to win OPOY.

NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds

Player Name	Probability
Jahmyr Gibbs	16%
Bijan Robinson	12%
Ja'Marr Chase	10%
Puka Nacua	9%
Justin Jefferson	7%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	5%
Jonathan Taylor	5%
Christian McCaffrey	5%
Derrick Henry	5%
James Cook III	4%

Odds as of 9-1. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.

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NFL Offensive Player of the Year prediction

Jonathan Taylor looked set to run away with OPOY honors last year, as the Indianapolis Colts running back was the odds-on favorite through the first half of the year.

Then came the collapse. The Colts stumbled down the stretch, losing nine of their final 10 regular-season games, which included noticeable dips in Taylor’s production.

Despite the team’s struggles, the Colts’ running back still finished with the second-most rushing yards in the NFL, falling just 26 short of James Cook.

Backed by a stout offensive line and a two-year, $44 million extension, Taylor remains a solid pick heading into a fresh campaign.

OPOY Pick: Jonathan Taylor (5% probability at Kalshi)

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NFL Offensive Player of the Year betting trends

• Since this award was first given out in 1972, seven offensive players have claimed this award more than once. However, Jerry Rice is the only receiver to win it multiple times. 

• Only five receivers have won OPOY since '72, but four of the five (Michael Thomas, Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba) have won it in the last six years.

• Among the 52 Offensive Player of the Year winners, 28 were named Most Valuable Player in the same season.

• Running backs have won OPOY the most, with 29, and quarterbacks are second with 20.

NFL Offensive Player of the Year history

A quick look at the NFL OPOY winners since 2000 and the position they played.

Year	NFL OPOY Award Winner	Position
2025	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR
2024	Saquon Barkley	RB
2023	Christian McCaffrey	RB
2022	Justin Jefferson	WR
2021	Cooper Kupp	WR
2020	Derrick Henry	RB
2019	Michael Thomas	WR
2018	Patrick Mahomes	QB
2017	Todd Gurley	RB
2016	Matt Ryan	QB
2015	Cam Newton	QB
2014	DeMarco Murray	RB
2013	Peyton Manning	QB
2012	Adrian Peterson	RB
2011	Drew Brees	QB
2010	Tom Brady	QB
2009	Chris Johnson	RB
2008	Drew Brees	QB
2007	Tom Brady	QB
2006	LaDainian Tomlinson	RB
2005	Shaun Alexander	RB
2004	Peyton Manning	QB
2003	Jamal Lewis	RB
2002	Priest Holmes	RB
2001	Marshall Faulk	RB
2000	Marshall Faulk	RB

NFL OPOY Odds FAQs

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