Cristiano Ronaldo’s struggles in the knockout rounds of the World Cup are well documented, and failure to produce against Croatia could see his time with Portugal’s national team come to an end.
Portugal are favored at -117 on the 3-way line and -223 to advance in the latest World Cup odds, but my Portugal vs. Croatia predictions are backing the underdogs to send him packing after another underwhelming outing.
Read on for my World Cup picks for their match on July 2, with kickoff at 7 p.m. ET.
Portugal vs Croatia predictions
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TOP PICK
Who will win Portugal vs Croatia: Croatia to advance (-276)
Roberto Martinez is not to be trusted in a big match. He wasted Belgium’s golden generation, and he looks prime to repeat history with this Portuguese side.
Portugal has the best midfield trio in the world in Vitinha, Joao Neves, and Bruno Fernandes. With their passing, this team should be racking up goals. But they’re not, because Martinez refuses to bench Cristiano Ronaldo.
Sure, Ronaldo declared himself “back” after Portugal’s 5-0 thrashing of Uzbekistan. It’s amazing how he was willing to run and exert himself against defenders who play in Iran and the UAE.
When facing back lines with a pulse, Ronaldo’s left Portugal effectively playing with 10 men. His four offsides are tied for fourth-most heading into the knockout stages, and he’s got just five progressive carries from 94 touches. And don’t get me started on his shooting accuracy against DR Congo and Colombia.
Croatia are a disciplined side, and they’re set up to frustrate and isolate Ronaldo. They also have a manager who is far more willing to adapt to a match state than Martinez, and has shown an ability to make more impactful substitutions and will not take Ronaldo off for a single moment.
I’m not betting my hard-earned money on Martinez or Ronaldo figuring things out, and neither should you. Take Croatia to move on to the Round of 16 up to +210, my top play for this match.
COVERS INTEL: Portugal registered 2.61 xG and 3.49 xGOT against Uzbekistan—but just 1.58 xG and 0.70 xGOT combined against DR Congo and Colombia.Portugal vs Croatia Over/Under pick: Under 2.5 (-132)
Portugal pressures at a Top 10 rate, but Ronaldo’s lack of effort means they’ve forced just 15 high turnovers resulting in only two shots. It will prevent them from getting cheap goals in this fixture.
That pressure in the midfield will also disrupt Croatia’s build-up play. Their 4.59 passes per sequence is 12th-most at the tournament, indicating how rarely they attack directly.
Croatia defends with physicality and make it tough for teams to break them down off the dribble. They rank fourth at World Cup 2026 with a 54.8% success rate in ground duels, and will look to limit the likes of Joao Felix and Pedro Neto out wide.
On the flip side, Portugal conceded just one goal despite allowing 0.94 xG per match. They were fortunate to keep a clean sheet against Colombia, with a late goal disallowed, but that still would have been just a 1-0 scoreline.
The two nations have combined for an average of 7.67 accurate shots per match, and I expect they’ll cancel each other out during regulation with a 1-1 scoreline at most.
Oh, and it’s gonna be very hot on Thursday with potential weather delays, which should add to fatigue levels in the latter stages.
Play the Under to -125.
Portugal vs Croatia projected lineup
Portugal (4-2-3-1): Costa; Cancelo, Dias, Veiga, Mendes; Neves, Vitinha; Neto, Fernandes, Felix; Ronaldo.
Croatia (4-2-3-1): Livakovic; Stanisic, Pongracic, Sutalo, Gvardiol; Kovacic, Modric; Vlasic, Sucici, Perisic; Budimir.
Portugal vs Croatia injuries
Portugal: No injuries to report.
Croatia: No injuries to report.
Portugal vs Croatia weather
It’s going to be a rough evening in Toronto. Temperatures at kickoff will feel like they’re in the mid-90s, with a good chance of severe weather around halftime that could see the match delayed.
Portugal vs Croatia odds
 Portugal |
 Croatia |
|
|---|---|---|
| -117 | Moneyline | +400 |
| +257 | Draw | +257 |
| Over 2.5 (+117) | Total | Under 2.5 (-122) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Portugal vs Croatia
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | BMO Field, Toronto, Canada |
| Date | Thursday, July 2, 2026 |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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