Prediction market sites have transitioned from a niche internet curiosity into a full-blown financial powerhouse, and Covers has been there to track every shift in the landscape.

This timeline is the definitive story of that evolution, capturing the legal skirmishes, massive funding rounds, and high-profile partnerships that defined the rules of the road. We’ve covered every inch of this saga at the fascinating intersection of sports betting, finance, and regulation.

Dive into the highlights below to see how these predictions markets have taken over the global conversation, and where the sharp action is headed next.

Prediction markets and the U.S.: The detailed timeline

This timeline shines a particular focus on prediction market happenings since early 2024, when interest in the phenomenon really began to grow. Included are links to every Covers story written on every entry in this chronology.

April 2026

April 2: The CFTC is suing Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois, challenging their actions against prediction market platforms. The CFTC vows to "safeguard its exclusive regulatory authority over these markets" against "overzealous state regulators."

April 2: As reported by Sportico, Kalshi classified itself as gambling in a trademark application filed with the United States Patent and Trademark Office last year.

April 1: Robinhood is suing Washington State in response to the state's lawsuit against Kalshi. In its lawsuit, Robinhood claimed there is a "concrete and imminent threat" that Washington would file enforcement action against the prediction market platform.

March 2026

March 31: Federal prosecutors are investigating certain trades made on prediction market platforms for insider trading.

March 31: A poll, commissioned by the Gambling is Not Investing coalition, finds 81% of Americans view prediction market sports betting as gambling.

Gambling is Not Investing poll highlights
  • 77% of Americans say they're concerned that prediction market platforms that allow teens to bet on sports could increase gambling-related harm among young adults, compared with sportsbooks that require users to be 21.

  • 73% of Americans say they believe describing sports bets as ’event contracts,’ ’swaps’ or ’futures’ makes it more difficult for consumers, particularly younger ones, to recognize the financial risks involved.

  • 81% of Americans say prediction market platforms should comply with state gaming regulations, including age restrictions, tax structures, and problem gambling requirements.

March 30: Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick directs a Senate committee to study prediction markets as part of efforts to close gambling loopholes.

March 30: The NFL sends letters to prediction market platforms asking to ban a number of markets. The league said it wants to protect its players and game participants from "unfair and unwarranted allegations."

March 28: Nevada is granted a preliminary injunction against Coinbase barring the company from offering sports, election, and entertainment contracts in the state.

March 28: Washington State attorney general Nick Brown files a lawsuit against Kalshi for what the state deems as "illegal gambling." Brown accused the prediction market platform of "sneaking around Washington's gambling laws. No more."

March 27: California governor Gavin Newsom issues an executive order banning insider betting on prediction markets by state officials. The crackdown is on state employees in the Newsom administration in particular.

March 27: Intercontinental Exchange makes a new $600 million investment into Polymarket, part of an equity capital fundraising by the prediction market platform.

March 25: Minnesota advances a bill to ban prediction markets, framing them as unregulated gambling and imposing felony penalties for violations. The legislation targets wagering on events including sports, elections, disasters, and life events, restricting operators, payment processors, and advertising.

March 25: Investment management service Wealthsimple is aiming to introduce a prediction market trading platform in Canada, allowing consumers to buy and sell contracts related to real-world events. The platform won’t be allowed to offer contracts related to any level of sports or elections, per its regulatory approval agreement.

March 24: The stocks of sports betting companies enjoy a positive jolt after it's revealed that U.S. Senators were attempting to block sports contracts at popular prediction platforms. The bipartisan proposal would prevent platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket from offering contracts related to the outcome of sports events.

March 24: Kalshi issues new rules, restricting athletes and politicians from trading on its platform in an effort to contain insider trading. Kalshi’s new rules would preemptively screen out any political candidates running for office, preventing them from trading on their own campaigns.    

March 23: Polymarket implements changes to wipe out different forms of insider trading after coming under fire for certain markets and outcomes. The exchange has announced its “Enhanced Market Integrity Rules” designed to maintain the integrity of its markets and customer protection.

March 23: Two U.S. Senators plan to introduce a bill that would ban CFTC-licensed prediction platforms from offering sports event contracts, The Wall Street Journal reports. The bipartisan legislation would prohibit Kalshi and Polymarket from allowing customers to buy and sell contracts related to outcomes of sports events.

March 20: A Nevada court issues a temporary restraining order against Kalshi that prohibits the prediction market operator from "offering or facilitating the offering of sports-, election-, and entertainment-related event contracts" in the Silver State. Kalshi subsequently removes sport, entertainment and politics markets from NV.

March 20: Kalshi appears set to double its valuation again in just a few months. Technology investment firm Coatue Management is leading the influx to lift Kalshi’s worth to $22 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal. The trading exchange’s annual revenue run rate is reportedly $1.5 billion.

March 19: Major League Baseball becomes the most prominent U.S. sports league to partner with a prediction market platform. MLB not only joins forces with Polymarket, but also signs a memorandum of understanding with the CFTC, which allows the league and federal agency to exchange information “concerning issues of common interest including protecting the integrity of professional baseball and the relating prediction markets.”

March 19: Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour accuses Arizona's Attorney General of a “total overstep” in filing criminal charges against the prediction platform. Mansour suggests the Arizona AG might be targeting Kalshi to try to gain support in an election year.

March 17: Arizona charges Kalshi with 20 criminal counts, ranging from wagers accepted on Arizona men’s and women’s college basketball games, Super Bowl prop bets, and election wagering. "Arizona will not be bullied into letting any company place itself above state law," Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes says.

March 14: Kalshi sues the Arizona Department of Gaming in federal court, just one day after filing a lawsuit against Iowa state regulators. All in a week's work for Kalshi, which is challenging more than a dozen states in court over the legality of its sporting event contracts.

March 13: NEXT.io reports that global prediction market trading volume surged more than 400% from 2024 to 2025, reaching nearly $64 billion. And unsurprisingly, sports event contracts account for more than 80% of prediction market trading activity.

March 12: Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan believes new AI technology will build sports integrity monitoring “the way it should have been built.” His comment comes as his company announces an agreement to branch out through a partnership with technology companies Palantir and TWG AI.

March 12: The CFTC issues an advisory to prediction market operators as it aims to create protections against manipulation and considers which contracts should be prohibited in the public interest, such as wagering money on assassination or acts of war.

March 11: Prediction markets are a huge threat to state and tribal sovereignty and are already eating into the revenue generated by tribal casinos, gaming leaders say. Speaking at NEXT.io's New York Summit, CNIGA chairman James Siva says: "These prediction markets are the biggest threat to gaming in this country we have seen."

March 11: Major U.S. financial exchange executives are calling for enhanced federal regulations of prediction markets. Nasdaq CEO Adena Friedman and CME Group CEO Terry Duffy say oversight is necessary to protect investors and stop market manipulation.

March 10: U.S. District Chief Judge Sarah D. Morrison denies Kalshi’s motion for a preliminary injunction in Ohio, citing her obligation to “avoid the absurd.” According to her ruling, "Ohio argues that absurd results would flow from defining a 'swap' to include a sports-event contract. The Court agrees."

March 9: Kalshi and Polymarket reportedly seek funding that could value both of them at around $20 billion. Kalshi was last valued at $11 billion, with Polymarket appraised at approximately $9 billion.

March 6: An Illinois lawmaker wants to force prediction market platforms to be licensed and pay state taxes. Introduced by Sen. Michael Hastings, SB 4168 would give Illinois regulators power to go after “illegal” prediction market platforms.

March 5: Two U.S. lawmakers aim to keep government officials from trading event contracts on prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Proposed legislation would make it illegal for the President, Vice President, and Congressional members to trade on prediction market platforms.

March 4: One day after filing a lawsuit against Kalshi, Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel is targeted by a lawsuit filed by Kalshi’s competitor Polymarket. Michigan became the 10th state to tangle with Kalshi in the courts a day earlier.

March 4: Betr is joining its peers in the prediction market space. Partnering with Polymarket, Betr plans to offer event contracts on sports, politics, and culture through the partnership with the prediction market giant.

March 4: Polymarket removes a controversial prediction market that allowed customers to win money if a nuclear attack occurred before a series of deadlines. The market existed for years, but is removed after it was circulated in a viral post on X earlier in the week.

March 3: Daily fantasy sports operator Underdog cuts more than 20% of its workforce as the company makes a major shift into prediction markets. The company began its pivot toward prediction markets in the second half of 2025.

March 2: DraftKings will offer sports betting and/or trading access across all 50 states in a unified app in a move that will expand its sports footprint and accelerate national prediction market growth.

March 2: Nasdaq submits an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to release prediction market options. The proposal aims to allow traders to buy and sell yes-or-no contracts related to the performance of stocks on the Nasdaq 100 Index.

March 1: Saturday's U.S-Israeli strikes on Iran make major trade waves. The trending news topic has been generating significant trading volume on prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, with several markets all seeing more than $2 million in trading activity in the hours following the strikes.

February 2026

Feb. 27: New Jersey is ready to get tough on prediction markets, as New Jersey Senate President Pro Tempore Shirley K. Turner introduces legislation that would ban certain prediction markets and require markets pertaining to sporting events to operate under the state's current sports betting laws.

Feb. 26: FanDuel plans to devote up to $300 million to its prediction markets as legal uncertainty and shareholder concerns appear to weigh on the stock price of its parent company, Flutter Entertainment. The latest spending projection comes as the state-regulated gaming industry sees increasing pressure from prediction markets.

Feb. 26: The chief executive of PENN Entertainment Inc. says the legal outlook for prediction markets is “clear as mud.” Jay Snowden goes on to say that the ongoing litigation involving the federally regulated exchanges can’t get in front of the U.S. Supreme Court soon enough.

Feb. 25: A California gubernatorial candidate receives a five-year ban from Kalshi and a financial penalty for trading on himself. And an editor for renowned YouTube influencer MrBeast is also punished for violating Kalshi’s insider information policy.

Notes & Quotes

"Our surveillance systems flagged his near-perfect trading success on markets with low odds, which were statistically anomalous. At the same time, because all trading data is publicly available, a number of Kalshi users sent us tips about unusual activities they saw in the trading data. We investigated and found that the trader was employed as an editor for the streamer’s show and likely had access to material non-public information connected to his trading."

– A Kalshi spokesperson regarding Artem Kaptur, an editor for MrBeast

Feb. 24: Kalshi sues Gov. Spencer Cox and other Utah officials in federal court as it seeks to keep offering prediction markets in the state. The complaint seeks injunctive and declaratory relief and argued Utah is intruding on federal authority over derivatives trading overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Feb. 24: Kalshi has moved to bolster confidence in prediction markets by expanding enforcement and preparing to publish disciplinary actions against users. Robert DeNault, the company’s new Head of Enforcement, has spent months clearing a backlog of potential trading violations.

Feb. 23: The NCAA has raised a dispute with prediction market Kalshi, after the operator was found to have been using its “March Madness” trademark, despite the NCAA previously addressing the issue.

Feb. 20: Kalshi has been granted a preliminary injunction in Tennessee from U.S. District Judge Aleta A. Trauger after she agreed that the platform is likely to succeed in its argument that its sports-event contracts are "swaps" under the CFTC, as opposed to gambling.

Feb. 19: DraftKings’ expansion into prediction markets is becoming one of the most legally and financially sensitive elements of its business. DK admits prediction market growth faces legal and regulatory risks that could affect products and licenses.

Feb. 18: Nevada regulators file suit to block prediction market operator Kalshi from offering sports-related event contracts. Chairman Mike Dreitzer says the board intends to "uphold the integrity of a thriving gaming industry.”

Feb. 18: Growing sweepstakes sports trading platform Novig receives a $75-million funding round in preparation of entering the prediction market industry. Novig will use the funding to continue innovating its product.

Feb. 17: The CFTC has officially gone on the offensive in its defense of prediction markets. CFTC chairman Michael Selig released a video telling state regulators that his agency is taking legal action.

Feb. 16: NBA commissioner Adam Silver said the league views prediction markets like sports betting operators. Based on that guideline, Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo did nothing wrong when he became a Kalshi shareholder earlier this month.

Feb. 16: New Zealand declares that prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket are illegal under its gambling laws because they are unauthorized operators.

Where are prediction markets illegal?

A number of countries around the world have banned Kalshi, Polymarket and/or other notable prediction markets, including:

  • Africa: Algeria, Angola, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Côte d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Libya, Mali, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Zimbabwe
  • Asia: Afghanistan, China, Iran, Iraq, Laos, Lebanon, Myanmar (Burma), North Korea, Singapore, Syria, Taiwan, Thailand, United Arab Emirates, Yemen
  • Europe: Belarus, Belgium, Bulgaria, France, Hungary, Italy, Monaco, Poland, Russia, Switzerland, Ukraine, United Kingdom
  • North America: Canada*, Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua
  • Oceania: Australia, New Zealand
  • South America: Bolivia, Venezuela

*Canada prohibits "binary options", though Polymarket still operates within the country (aside from Ontario, which banned it last year).

Feb. 16: Kalshi’s sports event contracts have helped the platform become approximately one-fifth the size of DraftKings, generating $1.3 billion in estimated annualized revenue from sports contracts.

Feb. 13: The CFTC introduces an Innovation Advisory Committee (IAC), which includes prominent figures from across the prediction market space, signaling an increase in federal support.

Feb. 13: Major League Baseball is considering becoming the second major American pro league to partner with prediction platforms. MLB commissioner Rob Manfred says the league is mulling teaming up with Kalshi and Polymarket.

Feb. 9: Polymarket shows solidarity by filing a lawsuit against Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell following the state's ban on Kalshi’s sports markets.

Feb. 9: Prediction markets report a boom in action on Super Bowl Sunday, with Kalshi reporting more than $500 million in trading volume tied to the Big Game.

Feb. 6: NBA star Giannis Antetokounmpo announces on X that he’s a shareholder of Kalshi, marking the first time a major pro athlete has taken a financial stake in a prediction market exchange.

Feb. 6: DraftKings is expanding the sports-related menu on its platform through a new agreement with Crypto.com to enable "player-specific" event contracts.

Feb. 5: Amid concerns of inadequate integrity standards, Kalshi reveals a major revamp of its surveillance and enforcement structure across three pillars: detect, investigate, and enforce.

Feb. 4: Sporttrade announces it has submitted applications to the CFTC for DCM and DCO status as it seeks to become a nationwide prediction market platform.

Feb. 3: Polymarket announces it is launching a free grocery store in NYC and donating $1 million to a local food bank.

Feb. 3: Crypto.com announces the launch of “OG,” a new prediction platform experience featuring integrated leaderboards.

Feb. 3: NY Attorney General Letitia James issues a warning to fans about the dangers of prediction markets and their lack of consumer protections.

Feb. 2: Prediction markets will not appear during the Super Bowl broadcast as they remain on the NFL’s prohibited advertising list.

January 2026

Jan. 31: Polymarket ceases offering event contracts in Nevada following a recent court ruling. The Silver State filed a lawsuit against the trading exchange on Jan. 16, citing that Polymarket’s event contracts are wagering and challenge Nevada’s regulated market.

Jan. 29: The hands-off approach taken by the federal regulator of prediction markets looks like it is about to get more hands-on, but perhaps in a good way for operators. CFTC chair Michael Selig says the agency will withdraw prior proposed bans and advisories and begin drafting clear new rules for prediction market event contracts.

Jan. 29: Coinbase continues its expansion beyond cryptocurrency trading by launching its prediction market product to users across all 50 states. The move will increase competition in the space and force other prediction market operators to follow suit.

Jan. 28: A state that’s long opposed legal sports betting is now going after prediction markets. Hawaii lawmakers introduce House Bill 2198, legislation that would define trading platforms that offer contracts on sports and several other categories as illegal gambling.

Jan. 27: Major League Soccer and prediction platform Polymarket announce a multiyear partnership. Polymarket will serve as the official and exclusive prediction market partner of MLS, MLS All-Star Games, MLS Cup, and Leagues Cup.

Jan. 26: Sports betting sweepstakes operator Novig is looking to take a run at becoming a federally regulated prediction market operator. Novig launched in 2024 as a licensed sports betting operator in Colorado but shifted to a peer-to-peer (sweepstakes) model available in over 30 U.S. states later that year.

Jan. 23: Forbes introduces ForbesPredict, a first-of-its-kind prediction platform developed with Axiom. Users will be given a chance to predict outcomes of real-world events while following Forbes’ news and media coverage, but without risking their money.

Jan. 21: California Nations Indian Gaming Association chairman James Siva congratulates Massachusetts for stopping Kalshi from offering sports event contracts. In a statement provided to Covers, Siva says: "These companies are dodging rules that tribes and states rely on to protect consumers, generate tax revenue, and ensure accountability."

Jan. 20: Sports streaming platform DAZN announces a partnership with Polymarket, which it calls “the world’s largest prediction market.” The deal will bring Polymarket and its prediction markets, including those in various sports, in front of DAZN’s digital viewers in the U.S.

Jan. 20: Massachusetts wins a significant court battle against prediction market platform Kalshi that gives the Bay State the ability to prohibit sports event contracts from being offered there. The judge gives the Commonwealth one day to propose the preliminary injunction, but delays it later in the week.

Jan. 19: The Nevada Gaming Control Board files a civil enforcement action in Carson City District Court against Blockratize Inc., the corporate entity behind Polymarket. It seeks an order to stop the offering of what the regulator described as unlicensed wagering in the state.

Jan. 17: Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon says the investment bank is actively examining opportunities in the prediction market space. CNBC reports that the bank views some prediction market contracts as structurally similar to existing financial instruments, creating possible future business opportunities.

Jan. 15: FanDuel officially launches prediction markets in all 50 U.S. states, with sports event contracts offered in 18 of those jurisdictions. California and Texas are included in the latest expansion of states where FanDuel offers sports contracts.

Jan. 15: The NCAA insists that federal regulators shut down prediction markets for college sports until further guidelines have been established. NCAA president Charlie Baker tells the CFTC that the answer cannot be the status quo.

Notes & Quotes

"Sports wagering is broadly defined as individuals wagering money on the outcome of sporting events or any portion thereof. Under that definition, sport prediction markets act like sports wagering."

– NCAA commissioner Charlie Baker in a letter to the CFTC.

Jan. 14: Kalshi lands its first pro athlete partnership. The prediction market platform signs LIV Golf star Bryson DeChambeau, as first reported by Front Office Sports; DeChambeau will be featured in a TV commercial and other promotional materials.

Jan. 14: CFTC chairman Michael Selig launches the Innovation Advisory Committee in response to increasing pressure to regulate the evolving industry. The committee will provide a variety of viewpoints from the financial industry and regulatory bodies.

Jan. 13: A pair of sports betting stakeholder groups ask for congressional aid in their battle against prediction market platforms that offer sports event contracts. The American Gaming Association and Indian Gaming Association send a joint letter to the U.S. Senate and House asking for intervention.

Jan. 12: Kalshi is suing the Tennessee Sports Wagering Council after the regulator issued a cease-and-desist order to the prediction market operator prior to the weekend.

Jan. 9: Polymarket adds another key partnership, becoming the official prediction market provider for the Golden Globes. The deal will see Polymarket provide integrated branding and real-time market insights.

Jan. 8: A New York Assemblyman introduces the ORACLE Act to impose state-specific oversight and regulation on prediction market platforms operating in New York, the latest signal of an uphill battle for the industry.

Jan. 8: The New York Rangers announce that Polymarket is the team’s official prediction market partner. The platform will gain exclusive promotional opportunities in the arena and on television broadcasts.

Jan. 7: The Wall Street Journal’s parent company, Dow Jones, announces an exclusive partnership with Polymarket. The prediction market giant will provide real-time data on a variety of Dow Jones’ digital platforms.

Jan. 7: Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour endorses a bill that would ban government officials with access to material nonpublic information from trading prediction market contracts tied to policies or elections.

Jan. 7: Prediction market firm Kalshi begins rolling out a VIP product to retain its highest-volume users. Select traders will be invited to join Kalshi Platinum, offering a range of benefits commonly found in financial trading.

Jan. 7: Google has updated its U.S. advertising policy to allow prediction market advertising only from federally regulated firms, drawing a clear line between event contracts and prohibited binary options.

Jan. 5: A Polymarket user nets $400,000 on markets related to the U.S. capture of Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro, prompting legislation aimed at curbing insider trading.

Jan. 2: Speaking with CNBC, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie warns that rapid growth of sports-related prediction markets poses legal, economic, and ethical risks to the integrity of professional and amateur sports.

December 2025

Dec. 23: The NHL's Chicago Blackhawks confirm that they have reached a marketing deal with Kalshi. The Blackhawks are the first U.S.-based major professional sports franchise to partner with a prediction market platform.

Dec. 22: Three days after rival DraftKings launches its prediction market product, FanDuel follows suit. The FanDuel Predicts platform is available initially across only five states, with a phased expansion planned in the coming weeks.

Dec. 19: DraftKings Predictions starts offering event contracts for trading, launching the company’s prediction market platform in 38 states. DK Predictions offers sports event contracts in select markets and non-sports contracts where its sportsbook operates.

Dec. 18: Kalshi files documents with the CFTC that says it is self-certifying NCAA transfer portal contracts. The move has drawn intense criticism from the NCAA, which recently decided to maintain its ban on student-athlete betting.

Dec. 17: Robinhood unveils a variety of new features related to its rapidly growing prediction markets, including preset and custom combos. Starting early next year, Robinhood users will be able to create Custom Combos with up to 10 outcomes.

Dec. 17: Kalshi’s motion for a stay is denied, dissolving the preliminary injunction in Nevada. That leaves the controversial prediction market company at legal risk in Nevada, where offering sports contracts is illegal.

Dec. 15: Coinbase is preparing to roll out an internal prediction market using Kalshi technology. The launch is reportedly driven by the crypto exchange's desire to diversify the assets available on its platform.

Dec. 15: Crypto wallet Phantom announces a partnership with Kalshi, integrating the prediction market's event contracts into its wallet, enabling Phantom's 20 million crypto users to trade directly.

Dec. 12: Kalshi and Crypto.com announce the formation of the Coalition for Prediction Markets. CPM’s members include Robinhood, Coinbase, and Underdog, though Polymarket is noticeably absent.

Dec. 11: The CFTC grants Gemini Space Station Inc. approval to operate a derivatives exchange. Gemini, founded by the Winklevoss twins, can now offer event contracts to existing U.S. customers.

Dec. 11: Native American gaming groups are fighting back against prediction markets. Tribal gaming leaders warn that prediction markets threaten tribal sovereignty and casino revenues.

Dec. 10: A federal judge stops Connecticut regulators from moving forward with an enforcement action targeting Kalshi, offering a brief window of protection as legal fights intensify.

Dec. 4: The Connecticut DCP announces a trio of cease-and-desist orders aimed at curbing sports wagering on platforms like Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com.

Dec. 3: Polymarket returns to the U.S. with a limited rollout. Waitlist users are receiving invite codes on a rolling basis; the platform will offer sports contracts first.

Fact Sheet: Polymarket
📍 Headquarters: New York City
🧑‍💼 Founder/CEO: Shayne Coplan
🤑 Current Valuation: $20 Billion (March '26 Est.)
🔑 Key Investor: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)
⛓️ Blockchain Tech: Polygon & Solana
⚖️ U.S. Regulatory Status: Federally regulated
Recent Highlights:
  • MLB Partnership: Signed exclusive prediction market deal with Major League Baseball in March 2026.
  • Acquisition: Acquired DeFi infrastructure startup Brahma on March 18, 2026.
  • Institutional Pivot: Launched institutional tools with ICE parent company to turn crowd views into capital market data.

Dec. 3: Kalshi and CNN reportedly partner in a landmark deal to feature prediction market data across CNN’s network. A similar deal with CNBC was announced the following day.

Dec. 2: Kalshi rolls out tokenized versions of its markets on Solana. The move deepens its rivalry with Polymarket and represents its most considerable on-chain effort to date.

November 2025

Nov. 25: The CFTC issues an amended order of designation to Polymarket. This latest step is a big one for Polymarket, as it allows the prediction market leader to operate a federally regulated intermediated trading platform in the U.S.

Nov. 25: Nevada scores a win in the latest chapter of its tilt with Kalshi. A federal judge in Nevada dissolves Kalshi’s earlier injunction, siding with state regulators who claim the platform is running unlicensed sports betting.

Nov. 21: Maryland joins the growing list of states to come out in opposition against prediction markets. Maryland’s Lottery and Gaming Control Commission releases a formal memo warning any operators involved in unregulated prediction markets could face major consequences.

Nov. 20: Fanatics is the latest sports betting company to embrace the prediction markets model. CEO Michael Rubin tells CNBC that Fanatics will begin offering event contracts “within the next couple weeks.”

Nov. 20: MGM CEO Bill Hornbuckle tells Nevada regulators that prediction markets are simply sports betting and suggests they should face the same rules and taxes. His view aligns with that of the Nevada Gaming Control Board.

Nov. 20: The incoming chairman of the CFTC offers little clarity on the validity of sports events contracts in his nomination hearing with the Senate Agriculture Committee. Michael Selig gives few direct answers when pressed on the subject.

Nov. 19: The CEO of Polymarket believes that state-licensed sportsbooks are a “scam.” Shayne Coplan's comments include context on how he believes sportsbooks chase away winning customers and rip off their users.

Nov. 18: FanDuel and DraftKings end their membership with the American Gaming Association because of their entry into the prediction market space. Both companies plan to launch prediction market platforms soon.

Nov. 14: Fanatics is looking to potentially join fellow sports betting operators in the prediction market space through a possible partnership with Crypto.com.

Nov. 13: The Massachusetts Gaming Commission publishes a letter telling sportsbooks they risk losing their ability to operate inside state lines if they sign partnership deals with prediction platforms.

Nov. 13: Polymarket signs on as the official and exclusive prediction market partner of the UFC, promising a new “storytelling metric” to visualize fan sentiment.

Nov. 12: FanDuel confirms it will launch sports event contracts through CME Group in states without legal sportsbooks. Both FanDuel and DraftKings subsequently withdraw their Nevada license applications.

Nov. 11: PrizePicks announces a multi-year deal with Polymarket to offer event contracts on its app. PrizePicks partners with Kalshi three days later.

Nov. 7: Google is helping push prediction platforms to mass consciousness thanks to its new partnership with Kalshi and Polymarket to integrate trading data into Google Finance.

Nov. 6: DraftKings announces plans to launch “DraftKings Predictions,” a sports event contracts platform targeting major non-sportsbook states like California, Texas, and Florida.

Nov. 6: The chief executive officer of PENN Entertainment Inc. sees a major problem looming with prediction markets. CEO Jay Snowden suggested these platforms could eventually expand into casino-style games.

October 2025

Oct. 28: U.S. President Donald Trump selects Michael Selig to serve as chair of the CFTC, Selig acknowledges on X. The announcement comes on the same day that Trump Media and Technology Group announce a partnership with Crypto.com to get into the burgeoning prediction markets business.

Oct. 28: Crypto.com will stop offering sporting event contracts in Nevada after Nov. 3, and until its ongoing lawsuit with the Nevada Gaming Control Board is resolved. Crypto.com had filed a lawsuit against the NGCB in June after receiving a cease-and-desist order in May.

Oct. 27: Kalshi files a lawsuit to seek a preliminary injunction keeping New York regulators from taking action against the prediction market platform. The New York State Gaming Commission had sent a cease-and-desist order to Kalshi three days earlier.

Notes & Quotes

“New York’s attempt to regulate Kalshi intrudes upon the federal regulatory framework that Congress established for regulating derivatives on designated exchanges. The state’s efforts to regulate Kalshi are both field-preempted and conflict-preempted. This Court should therefore issue both a preliminary and a permanent injunction, as well as declaratory relief.”

– Kalshi statement from New York court document filing.

Oct. 23: Robinhood will introduce more than 100 new event contracts in the coming weeks, which will include sports, politics, and more. The platform’s latest offerings include NBA and World Series markets, as well as political contracts tied to Trump, tariffs, and U.S. election outcomes.

Oct. 22: The NHL takes a huge leap in legitimizing the impact of prediction markets in the U.S, announcing a multi-year marketing agreement with Kalshi and Polymarket. The deal makes the exchanges the official predication market partners of the NHL; the AGA immediately stands against the partnership.

Oct. 21: DraftKings Inc. is officially getting into the prediction market game. The Boston-based online gambling operator announces that it has acquired the federally regulated Railbird Exchange, paving the way for DraftKings to launch its own prediction market.

Oct. 20: Nearly half of Kalshi's users face technical issues during college football trading the previous Saturday. The company insists the glitches were minor and that no funds or trading systems were affected.

Oct. 16: Nevada regulators tell sports betting operators they must have a nonrestricted license to offer prediction markets. The NGCB said any operator that chooses to offer sports or other event contracts will have the suitability of maintaining a license evaluated.

Oct. 10: A second round of funding in less than five months has more than doubled Kalshi’s latest valuation for a U.S. event-outcome trading company that’s expanding globally. Kalshi raised $300 million from investors in August, raising its valuation to $5 billion – a figure that doubles in just two weeks.

Oct. 9: Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board executive director Kevin O’Toole is seeking support from congressional leaders against the “significant threat” prediction markets pose to the state’s regulatory framework. Regulators say their framework is threatened by prediction markets that aren’t under state laws.

Oct. 8: Kalshi asks a U.S. District Court to slap the Ohio Casino Control Commission with a permanent injunction and declaratory relief. In the case, Kalshi also issues a memorandum seeking an emergency temporary restraining order and a preliminary injunction.

Oct. 7: The world’s largest prediction market platform is receiving a massive funding effort from a major financial exchange company. Intercontinental Exchange announces that it is investing $2 billion into Polymarket; FanDuel and DraftKings stock both drop following the announcement.

Oct. 3: The Michigan Gaming Control Board warns gambling operators that participation in sporting event contracts, like those offered by prediction markets, may jeopardize their state licenses.

💡 Did You Know?

Michigan set a historic national record in 2025, becoming the first U.S. state to surpass $3 billion in annual online casino (iGaming) revenue. The $3.1 billion total officially unseated New Jersey and Pennsylvania as the nation's digital betting leaders.

Source: Michigan Gaming Control Board (MGCB) 2025 Annual Report

Oct. 1: A group of U.S. Senators is taking the CFTC to task over a perceived lack of prediction market enforcement in relation to state and tribal gaming laws. U.S. senators from five states argue the CFTC is allowing event contracts, which are the same as sports betting.

Oct. 1: The White House has unexpectedly pulled back Brian Quintenz's nomination to chair the CFTC. The surprise turn of events disrupts what many thought would be a smooth path to confirmation; Gemini's founders reportedly influenced the decision, leaving the agency without a nominee.

September 2025

Sept. 30: Kalshi is upping the ante on its challenge to sportsbooks by offering same-game parlays with its prediction markets, confirmed ahead of a Monday Night Football doubleheader. The system allows Kalshi users to combine multiple contracts into one pick, and for other users to short parlays.

Sept. 29: Crypto.com is formally licensed to deal in derivatives by the CFTC. The decision will allow the company's American branch, Crypto.com Derivatives North America, to sell margin derivatives in the country.

Sept. 25: The Trump Administration is reviewing potential additional candidates to chair the CFTC. Kalshi lawyer Josh Sterling is currently being vetted for the position after Brian Quintenz’s nomination hit pause.

Sept. 23: Popular daily fantasy sports operator PrizePicks is getting into the prediction market industry. The company announces that Performance Predictions II, LLC, a subsidiary of PrizePicks, has approval from the NFA and is now a registered Futures Commission Merchant.

Sept. 17: Fantasy sports platform Sleeper initiates a legal challenge against the CFTC, accusing the regulator of unlawfully blocking its entry into the prediction market sector; it files a civil suit two weeks later. Sleeper goes on to launch its prediction market product in February 2026.

Sept. 15: Just days after Massachusetts filed a lawsuit against Kalshi, Robinhood files its own suit, citing business protection as the reason for asking a federal court to keep Massachusetts from coming after it.

Sept. 15: Citizens JMP Securities doesn’t expect to see sportsbook operators react to Kalshi’s NFL markets. Citizens notes that Kalshi’s implied pricing was higher for moneylines and totals than sports betting heavyweights FanDuel and DraftKings.

Sept. 12: Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell announces she has filed a lawsuit against Kalshi for promoting and accepting online sports wagers without following state laws that govern sports gaming.

Sept. 10: Eighty-five percent of Americans consider sports event contracts to represent a form of gambling, according to a survey published by the American Gaming Association.

Sept. 9: Political prediction platform PredictIt procures regulatory approval from the CFTC, providing a path for the longtime “experimental project” to further expand its business.

Sept. 8: Robinhood Markets will replace Caesars Entertainment in the S&P 500, a significant milestone for the broader U.S. financial technology sector.

Sept. 5: Prediction market platforms may soon come under the scrutiny of a second federal agency as the CFTC and SEC announce a joint interest in clarifying the controversial markets.

Sept. 5: DraftKings CEO Jason Robins believes that traditional online sportsbooks have clear advantages over prediction markets, particularly regarding the variety and complexity of bets.

Sept. 4: Kalshi reveals it will offer parlay contracts on football outcomes, potentially competing directly with traditional sportsbooks.

Sept. 4: Departing CFTC commissioner Kristin Johnson warns in her farewell speech that prediction markets and some crypto platforms operate with “too few guardrails.”

Sept. 2: Fantasy and sports betting operator Underdog has partnered with trading platform Crypto.com to enter prediction markets across 16 states.

August 2025

Aug. 26: The Ohio Casino Control Commission tells its licensed sportsbooks that participation as, or association with, a prediction market operator may jeopardize a licensee’s suitability to offer sports betting in the Buckeye State. A copy of the letter was obtained by Dustin Gouker of The Closing Line.

Aug. 26: Polymarket announces that Donald Trump Jr. is joining its advisory board after venture capital firm 1789 Capital, at which Trump Jr. is a partner, made a “strategic investment” in the company.

Aug. 25: The NFL proclaims that league players can’t bet on the NFL using a typical sportsbook, nor can they bet on it using a federally regulated prediction market. A league executive later clarified that players can use prediction markets for non-NFL sports contracts.

Notes & Quotes

“NFL players could participate in prediction markets in sports other than the NFL and as long as they aren’t doing it at work or on a work trip. In that way, it mirrors the policy for regular sports betting.”

– Alex Riethmiller, NFL VP of communications, in an email to Covers

Aug. 22: The NCAA releases a statement expressing its concern with the rise of prediction platforms. The statement comes on the heels of Robinhood announcing earlier this week that it would be offering college football contract markets.

Aug. 20: FanDuel announces it will start a new joint venture with CME Group to offer financial prediction markets to the sportsbook’s customers.

Aug. 20: Robinhood is suing gaming officials in Nevada and New Jersey for trying to prevent it from offering sports event contracts through the prediction markets platform KalshiEx.

Aug. 18: Kalshi is boldly going where state-regulated sportsbooks have gone before, into the business of offering point spreads, totals, and player props. The prediction market announces that it is expanding its buffet of sports event contracts; Robinhood follows suit one day later.

Aug. 13: Prediction markets aren’t taking a piece of the pie away from the most lucrative operator in the U.S., according to Flutter CEO Peter Jackson, who says parlay products are “more exciting and engaging.”

Aug. 7: DraftKings CEO Jason Robins says the sports betting and iGaming giant is “actively exploring” entering the prediction outcome market, but is taking a “measured approach” for now.

Aug. 5: Nevada Rep. Dina Titus wants the CFTC to release chairman nominee Brian Quintenz’s communications about prediction outcome markets, citing potential conflicts of interest due to his role on Kalshi’s board.

Aug. 1: A Maryland judge rules against Kalshi in a preliminary ruling, as federal district judge Adam Abelson denies Kalshi’s motion for a preliminary injunction against the state’s sports betting regulators.

July 2025

July 26: Another day, another legal headline involving the prediction market operator Kalshi. The prediction market company has filed another brief in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit, arguing that because it is federally regulated by the CFTC, New Jersey is barred from regulating its sporting event contracts.

July 24: Churchill Downs CEO Bill Carstanjen says prediction markets don't pose much of a threat to pari-mutuel betting on horse racing or the Kentucky Derby, noting the exchanges have had minimal engagement with horse racing events to date.

July 23: Three federally recognized California Indian tribes have sued Kalshi and Robinhood for offering sports betting, alleging violations of the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA) and the Federal Wire Act.

July 23: Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan tells CNBC he's confident about competing with sportsbooks and apps like Kalshi as the platform prepares to reenter the U.S. market through its acquisition of the regulated exchange QCEX.

July 21: Kalshi is defending the use of terms like "bet" or "odds" in advertising. An attorney for the platform told the NCLGS that the website falls outside the scope of sports gambling because it does not actually provide odds.

Fact Sheet: Kalshi
📍 Headquarters: New York City
🧑‍💼 Founder/CEO: Tarek Mansour
🤑 Current Valuation: $22 Billion (March '26 Est.)
🔑 Key Investor: Tradeweb Markets & Coatue
🖥️ Primary Tech: Proprietary Regulated Exchange
⚖️ U.S. Regulatory Status: Federally Regulated (DCM/SEF)
Recent Highlights:
  • Recent Funding: Closed a $1 billion funding round led by Coatue Management on March 20, 2026, doubling its valuation in four months.
  • CNBC Partnership: Launched exclusive multi-year deal to integrate real-time prediction data into CNBC Squawk Box and Fast Money.
  • Institutional Push: Partnered with Tradeweb in February 2026 to integrate event-probability data directly into institutional trading terminals.

July 21: Polymarket is aiming to reenter the U.S. legally by acquiring QCX LLC and QC Clearing LLC for $112 million, following its 2022 settlement with the CFTC.

July 3: Attorneys for the Nevada Gaming Control Board submit 18 defenses to Kalshi’s lawsuit, notably arguing that Nevada’s gaming laws do not conflict with the Commodity Exchange Act.

June 2025

June 27: Smarkets is ready to make a splash in the U.S. CEO Jason Trost told Eilers & Krejcik that the company is trying to become a designated contract market regulated by the CFTC. The would-be prediction market operator would file an application for a license from the CFTC in March 2026.

June 27: Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour announces a $185 million round of funding, bringing his company's valuation to a whopping $2 billion. Virtual capital firm Paradigm led the latest investment round.

June 25: Polymarket enters the final stages of closing a $200-million funding round, giving the platform a total valuation of $1 billion, sources tell Reuters and Bloomberg.

June 20: PredictIt and the CFTC settle their years-long lawsuit over the former’s “no-action” letter, which allowed the prediction market to operate.

June 13: America’s leading sports betting operator is exploring a dive into the world of prediction market outcomes. FanDuel Sportsbook has reportedly discussed a partnership with fast-rising trading platform Kalshi.

June 11: Appearing before the U.S. Senate’s Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Committee, incoming CFTC chairman Brian Quintenz makes what are interpreted as favorable remarks for federally regulated prediction markets.

June 6: Polymarket announces an official partnership with X and will serve as the social media platform's official prediction market partner, incorporating real-time annotations from Grok.

June 6: A division of Crypto.com has filed a federal lawsuit against Nevada’s gaming regulators for allegedly improperly shutting down part of the platform’s business.

June 4: Arizona’s gaming regulator pens a letter asking the CFTC to shut down sports event contracts from platforms such as Kalshi, arguing they amount to illegal gambling in Arizona.

May 2025

May 28: Incoming CFTC chairman Brian Quintenz submits a financial disclosure and an ethics statement, outlining how he'd handle potential conflicts of interest. As chairman, Quintenz would regulate prediction market providers, including Kalshi, where he serves as a board member.

May 27: A California gubernatorial candidate uses Kalshi to purchase political outcome contracts on himself. Republican Kyle Langford buys $98.76 worth of contracts for him to become the Golden State’s governor in 2026.

May 26: Customers will soon be able to buy prediction market contracts through the same financial brokerages that hold their 401(k). Tarek Mansour suggests the company anticipates having deals with retirement account companies before the end of 2026.

May 21: Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour backtracks on a social media post in which he reported that the prediction market company had partnered with xAI. Bloomberg retracts its original story on the deal in a new article.

May 8: Shocker in the prediction market world! U.S. Cardinal Robert Prevost was chosen as the next pope, a highly unlikely selection in the eyes of prediction markets, which took in more than $40 million in papal trading.

May 8: The D.C. Circuit has granted the CFTC's request to end its legal fight with Kalshi over election-related event contracts, following Kalshi's key decision last year that paved the way for widespread wagering.

May 7: Flutter Entertainment CEO Peter Jackson said during the company’s first quarter corporate earnings call that it is “closely monitoring” prediction market developments in the U.S. as it evaluates launching in that space.

May 2: The NBA asks the CFTC to provide a regulatory framework for platforms that offer sport-event contracts. In a letter, the league argues against platforms like Kalshi giving users the ability to purchase contracts on individual games.

May 1: Sporttrade CEO Alex Kane tells Sportico in an interview that his company requested federal approval to operate in all 50 states. Citing "irreparable harm" to his product, Kane hopes for full U.S. access.

April 2025

April 28: Prediction market operators receive more good news as Kalshi wins a preliminary restraining order and a temporary injunction against the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement. Last month, the NJDGE issued cease-and-desist orders to Kalshi and Robinhood.

April 25: Hopes that a federal agency would soon publicly clarify the legal status of sports event contracts offered by prediction markets have suddenly gone up in smoke. A scheduled roundtable was abruptly called off; the CFTC did not respond to questions regarding the cancellation.

April 22: Kalshi files a motion in U.S. District Court against the Maryland Lottery and Gaming Control Commission. Kalshi’s latest suit is in response to Maryland’s recent cease-and-desist order issued earlier this month.

April 20: The state of New Jersey files a new legal objection to prediction market startup Kalshi’s preliminary injunction, accusing the company of making an “endrun” around its regulatory framework.

April 17: Despite ongoing controversy involving prediction platforms, Kalshi launches individual MLB game contracts and markets. The launch comes three days after Kalshi posted NBA contracts for the first time.

Kalshi's 5 Most Traded MLB Events

01 World Series Winner LAD vs. TOR $87.8M
02 World Baseball Classic USA vs. VEN $33.1M
03 World Series: Game 3 LAD vs. TOR $28.1M
04 ALDS Winner DET vs. SEA $26.6M
05 ALCS Winner TOR vs. SEA $23.4M

April 15: Tennessee is the latest state to write the CFTC and express its concerns. The Tennessee Sports Wagering Council encouraged the CFTC to remove prediction markets from the list of options for consumers.

April 11: The list of states looking into sports prediction markets continues to grow. The Michigan Gaming Control Board announces it has initiated investigations into unlicensed markets, citing concerns about consumer protections.

April 10: A judge for the U.S. District Court for the District of Nevada partially grants Kalshi's request for a temporary restraining order and preliminary injunction against local gaming watchdogs.

April 8: Sara Slane, who served as the Senior Vice President of Public Affairs at the American Gaming Association, joins Kalshi as Head of Corporate Development, reporting to CEO Tarek Mansour.

April 7: Maryland becomes the sixth state in the U.S. to send cease-and-desist letters to Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com regarding de facto sports wagering.

April 4: Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour acknowledges receiving cease-and-desist letters from five states but maintains that Kalshi is under “exclusive federal jurisdiction.”

Notes & Quotes

“We are literally like a financial exchange, but the underlying trading is events. The CFTC is our regulator. If the CFTC tells us to stop, we will absolutely stop. If they don’t, then we won’t.”

– Tarek Mansour, Kalshi CEO, in an interview with TechCrunch

April 2: The Illinois Gaming Board sends cease-and-desist orders to Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com, claiming they are operating illegally without a sports betting license.

April 1: The gaming division of the Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection has opened an investigation into Kalshi, noting that the inquiry actually began last fall.

April 1: Ohio regulators join Nevada and New Jersey in telling Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com to shut down trading of sports-related event contracts after the Ohio Casino Control Commission issued cease-and-desist notices.

March 2025

March 29: Kalshi isn’t going down in Nevada and New Jersey without a fight. The prediction market platform, which offers sports-event contracts, sues and seeks injunctive relief from cease-and-desist orders issued by both states’ regulator bodies.

March 27: First reported by Dustin Gouker's The Closing Line, the New Jersey Department of Gaming Enforcement issues a cease-and-desist letter to Kalshi and Robinhood for offering "unauthorized sports wagering." Both companies are issued a Friday deadline of 11:59 p.m. ET to comply.

March 27: Sports Illustrated is taking a shot at the prediction outcome business. The U.S. brand synonymous with sports media recently announced a partnership with prediction platform Galactic to launch SI Predict during 2025's second quarter. The joint venture will let SI Predict users trade on the outcomes of “trends and themes” of sporting events. 

March 25: The Massachusetts Secretary of State's office issues a subpoena to Robinhood, the electronic trading platform, seeking information about its recently launched sports betting prediction market. The news, which Reuters broke, marks one more skirmish in the evolving battle over jurisdiction and regulation.

March 24: Kalshi announces that the CFTC-regulated exchange and prediction market company has enhanced and strengthened its game for customer protection and integrity. In addition to creating a hub with responsible gambling protocols, Kalshi has partnered with Integrity Compliance 360 to improve its standing in regard to integrity.

March 24: Kalshi and Robinhood surpass the $200-million mark in total March Madness volume. Through the first two rounds of the men’s NCAA tournament, Kalshi’s markets had taken in nearly $195 million by Monday afternoon. Another $12.8 million worth of prediction contracts have been purchased on women’s tournament markets.

March 17: Robinhood announces that it's embedding a “prediction markets hub” in its app, allowing customers to buy and sell event contracts nationwide, including those tied to sporting events.

March 13: DraftKings registers its new venture, DraftKings Predict, with the National Futures Association, signaling intentions to enter the prediction markets sector.

March 10: Major League Baseball pens a letter to the CFTC, emphasizing that "protecting the integrity of competition is, and always has been, MLB’s top priority" regarding sports betting.

March 6: FanDuel says in its annual 10-K form that prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket create “new competition” in the gaming industry.

March 5: The Nevada Gaming Control Board issues a cease-and-desist order to Kalshi, citing violations of state gaming laws related to “event-based contracts” on sporting events and election outcomes, mandating an exit from the market by March 14 at 5 p.m.

February 2025

Feb. 24: Congresswoman Dina Titus reveals that she sent a letter to the CFTC outlining her concerns about legalizing prediction markets on sports contracts, arguing it could undermine state-regulated sports betting, consumer protections, and tax revenues. She adds that prediction markets are a backdoor way to allow sports wagering in all 50 states.

Feb. 13: The chief executive officer of Robinhood Markets Inc. – which briefly offered customers the opportunity to bet on the Super Bowl earlier this month – says the trading platform will push for “regulatory clarity” on event contracts, including those involving sports. "I think prediction markets are the future," CEO Vlad Tenev tells investors.

Fact Sheet: Robinhood
📍 Headquarters: Menlo Park, Calif.
🧑‍💼 Founder/CEO: Vlad Tenev
🤑 Current Valuation: $42 Billion (March '26 Est.)
🔑 Key Investor: Index Ventures & Ribbit Capital
🖥️ Primary Tech: Mobile-First Brokerage Infrastructure
⚖️ U.S. Regulatory Status: SEC Registered; FINRA Member
Recent Highlights:
  • 24/7 Global Trading: Fully rolled out 24-hour trading for over 10,000 equities and ETFs globally in January 2026, capturing significant overnight volume.
  • Gold Card Expansion: Reached 5 million active Robinhood Gold Card users in February 2026, integrating high-yield credit with automated investment features.
  • AI Advisory Launch: Debuted "Sherwood AI" in March 2026, a generative wealth management tool that provides personalized portfolio rebalancing for retail investors.

Feb. 13: Donald Trump nominates Brian Quintenz, a former Kalshi board member and former CFTC commissioner, to become the next head of the federal commodities regulator. Quintenz served at the CFTC from 2017 until 2021.

Feb. 12: St. Petersburg-based Webull Financial reveals that it has partnered with Kalshi to introduce event-contracts trading, joining other online brokerages entering the ever-expanding prediction market, according to a report by Bloomberg News.

Feb. 6: In response to growing concerns over prediction markets, The CFTC announces that it will host a public roundtable roughly 45 days after it is done requesting more information on “certain sports-related event contracts.”

Feb. 3: With the explosion of prediction markets across the country since the U.S. presidential election, Robinhood announces it will venture into sports markets with Sunday's Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans between the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles.

January 2025

Jan. 30: Kalshi is on the cusp of diving deeper into a very sports betting-like business. The prediction market files documents to "self-certify" contracts that could cover a variety of sporting events and outcomes, not just team championships such as the Super Bowl.

Jan. 23: Kalshi rolls out several event contracts on Thursday – as it said it would on Wednesday in a regulatory filing – that involve the Super Bowl, Stanley Cup, and the winner of the NCAA’s men’s basketball tournament, among other things. Traders can buy and sell contracts regarding the outcome of the NFL conference championships. 

Jan. 14: A federal regulator is pushing back against a recent effort by Crypto.com to get into a sports betting-like business. The CFTC says it will start a review of two sports event contracts that Crypto.com self-certified and submitted to the regulator on Dec. 19. Crypto would eventually withdraw that first batch of contracts and substitute newer versions that were not reviewed by the CFTC.

Jan. 13: Prediction market operator Kalshi now has the official backing of Trumpworld. Donald Trump Jr., the son of the incoming president, announces on X/Twitter that he is joining Kalshi as a “strategic advisor.”

Jan. 7: CFTC chairman Rostin Behnam announces that he will be leaving the job on Jan. 20, the same day Donald Trump will again be inaugurated as president. Behnam was appointed to his role full-time by departing Democratic President Joe Biden.

2023-24

December 18, 2024: Legislators introduce the “Ban Gambling on Elections Act”, the House companion to Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley’s legislation. The bill would amend the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit federally regulated entities from offering any "agreement, contract, transaction, or swap involving any political election or contest." 

December 5, 2024: While sportsbooks mull over a share of the prediction market space, Robinhood considers a migration of its own. At an investor day event, CEO Vlad Tenev confirms: "We’re keenly looking into that space;" the stock promptly jumps 3.5%.

November 8, 2024: Asked for his thoughts on "non-sports betting prediction markets" and whether there is an opportunity there for DraftKings, CEO Jason Robins says: "(It's) definitely something we're looking at in advance of the next presidential election, and potentially it'll be an opportunity to look at something sooner."

November 6, 2024: Donald Trump is officially elected president for a second time – and election betting markets are the big winners, as they projected that Trump would prevail over Democratic nominee Kamala Harris. "The Betfair Exchange has now correctly predicted 23 of the last 25 major elections across the world,” spokesperson Sam Rosbottom says in a statement.

November 1, 2024: In the first major state-level salvo against prediction markets, the Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection releases a statement warning local players that election betting is not legal and that there are only three licensed online sports betting platforms available in the state. 

October 29, 2024: Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour tells CNBC's "Squawk Box" that his company has seen close to $200 million in trades on the U.S. presidential election since gaining approval from the CFTC to trade event contracts in early October.

October 20, 2024: Robinhood Markets Inc. announces that its popular stock trading app has a new feature: presidential election event contracts. The product, which Robinhood is gradually rolling out to its clientele, will allow users to buy and sell "Yes" contracts for either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump for the U.S. presidential election.

October 2, 2024: The D.C. Court of Appeals issues an order unpausing a lower-court decision that allowed emerging prediction market Kalshi to offer election-related event contracts for around eight hours last month. The lower decision had been subject to an “administrative stay," and election betting at Kalshi had been paused pending the outcome.

September 13, 2024: The Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia issues a temporary freeze on legal political wagering while it considers the matter after the CFTC opposed a federal judge’s decision. The ruling means bettors won’t be able to place any more wagers on the U.S. Congressional election.

August 8, 2024: The Sports Betting Alliance (SBA), an industry group made up of BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics, says it must "respectfully object" to the Commodities Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC's) proposal to classify contracts involving gaming as contrary to the public interest.

August 6, 2024: A group of Democratic lawmakers wants to keep big money groups from placing big election bets, urging a federal regulator to follow through with a proposed ban on de facto political wagering through prediction markets like Kalshi. 

June 27, 2024: BBC Newsnight reports that up to 15 Conservative candidates and officials are being looked at by the Gambling Commission over bets placed on the date of the general election. The controversy sparks renewed calls for election betting reviews, and garners plenty of interest in the U.S., where only a few entities, including PredictIt, offer widely available political markets.

September 1, 2023: Futures market operator PredictIt introduces new political markets after earning a key court victory the previous July, a decision the site expects will help keep it in business at least through the coming election cycle.

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James Bisson
Head of Content, Betting

James Bisson is the Editor-in-Chief at Covers. He has been a writer, reporter and editor for more than 20 years, including a nine-year stint with The Canadian Press and more than five years at theScore. He has covered dozens of marquee events including the 2010 Winter Olympics, the 2006 Stanley Cup final and Wrestlemania 23, and his work has appeared in more than 200 publications, including the Los Angeles Times, the Guardian, Yahoo! Sports, the Toronto Star and The Globe and Mail.

His book, “100 Greatest Canadian Sports Moments”, was a hardcover best-seller in Canada in 2008 and earned him appearances on CBC Radio and Canada AM. He has written more than 50 sportsbook reviews, more than 200 industry news articles, and dozens of other sportsbook-related content articles.

A graduate of the broadcast journalism program at Ryerson University (now Toronto Metropolitan University), James has been an avid bettor since the early 2000s, and cites bet365 as his favorite sports betting site due to its superior functionality and quick payouts. His biggest professional highlight: Covering Canada's first Olympic gold medal on home soil – and interviewing Bret Hart. Twice.