The PGA Championship odds and win probability list World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler as the favorite to win the year's second golf major. Scheffler has a 16% win probability, equating to American odds of +525 to repeat as the champion of the Wanamaker Trophy. Scheffler didn't play this past week's Truist Championship. He was the runner-up in each of his past three events, including the 2026 Masters, won by Rory McIlroy.
The PGA Championship is locked at a field of 156, with Brandt Snedeker and Sudarshan Yellamaraju claiming the final two spots on Sunday. Snedeker won the Myrtle Beach Classic, while Yellamaraju got in as the first alternate with Truist Championship winner Kristoffer Reitan already being in the field.
Here are the latest PGA Championship odds and win probabilities for the outright winner market at Kalshi — one of our best prediction market apps — as well as important field notes.
📊 Live PGA Championship odds 2026
| Golfer |  |
Win probability | Movement (since Friday) |
|---|---|---|---|
 Scottie Scheffler |
+525 | 16% | ⬇️ |
 Rory McIlroy |
+1000 | 8.4% | ⬇️ |
 Cameron Young |
+1500 | 6.2% | ⬇️ |
 Jon Rahm |
+1700 | 5.3% | ⬇️ |
 Xander Schauffele |
+1800 | 5.1% | ⬆️ |
 Bryson DeChambeau |
+2000 | 4.6% | ⬆️ |
 Ludvig Aberg |
+2500 | 3.8% | ⬇️ |
 Matt Fitzpatrick |
+2800 | 3.4% | ⬇️ |
 Tommy Fleetwood |
+2800 | 3.4% | ⬇️ |
 Justin Rose |
+4900 | 2% | ⬇️ |
PGA Championship odds as of 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, May 10.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
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⭐ PGA Championship favorite
Scottie Scheffler's PGA Championship odds: 16%, +525
Scottie Scheffler skipped the Truist Championship Signature Event at Quail Hollow Club — the site of his PGA Championship victory last year. The week off didn't impact his odds to successfully defend the Wanamaker Trophy, helped by a lackluster Sunday leaderboard topped by Kristoffer Reitan, Rickie Fowler, Nicolai Hojgaard, and Alex Fitzpatrick.
Scheffler's PGA Championship odds would've lengthened if one of the other favorites — Tommy Fleetwood, Ludvig Aberg, or Rory McIlroy — had won this week.
Scheffler leads all golfers with 2.97 true strokes gained per round this year, according to Data Golf. He also tops the field in strokes gained: tee-to-green and ranks second in SG: around-the-green.
📈 Latest PGA Championship odds movement
All but two of the PGA Championship outright favorites saw their odds to win lengthen following the conclusion of the Truist Championship (and Myrtle Beach Classic). A largely unimpressive performance by the two PGA Championship contenders in their final tune-up helped to level the playing field at Kalshi.
We're seeing a more balanced oddsboard than we have in most recent majors and Signature Events. Only Scottie Scheffler has a double-digit win probability (16%). Rory McIlroy's chances to win dropped from a high of 11% on Friday following a disappointing T19 finish at Quail Hollow.
Kristoffer Reitan's PGA Championship odds sit at +5500 (1.8% win probability). Brandt Snedeker and Sudarshan Yellamaraju both have less than a 1% chance of winning the major.
Only Xander Schauffele and Bryson DeChambeau saw their PGA Championship win probability rise this weekend.
⚖️ How I'm trading the PGA Championship
Aronimink Golf Club, in Newtown Square, Pa., hasn't hosted the PGA Championship since 1962. That lack of competitive course history for the entire 2026 PGA Championship field helps to lengthen the list of names to consider for the outright win this week.
I consider the 2026 PGA Championship to be one of the more wide-open major championships in golf in recent years.
A par-70 course measuring nearly 7,400 yards, it will favor bombers. A sharp approach game is key at any "new" venue in golf. And a hot week with the putter can often fuel surprise runs to the top of the leaderboard in these situations.
I'll be sprinkling more on the PGA Championship long shots this week. This is the major already most likely to produce long-shot winners, and hosting an event for the first time in a generation is the great equalizer.
COVERS INTEL: Focus on driving distance, strokes gained: approach, and recent form with the putter in your PGA Championship picks to win this week.🆚 2026 PGA Championship field
The 2026 PGA Championship field was announced on Tuesday. The field closed at 156 golfers with Brandt Snedeker earning his way as champion of the Myrtle Beach Classic, while Canadian Sudarshan Yellamaraju claimed the final spot as the first alternate. Kristoffer Reitan — the winner of the Truist Championship — was already entered.
Neither Tiger Woods nor Phil Mickelson is in the field.
There'll be no further field changes, barring a withdrawal.
| Ludvig Aberg | Angel Ayora | Derek Berg | Daniel Berger |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | Akshay Bhatia | Francisco Bide | Chandler Blanchet |
| Michael Block | Keegan Bradley | Michael Brennan | Jacob Bridgeman |
| Daniel Brown | Sam Burns | Brian Campbell | Patrick Cantlay |
| Ricky Castillo | Bud Cauley | Stewart Cink | Wyndham Clark |
| Tyler Collet | Corey Conners | Pierceson Coody | Jason Day |
| Bryson DeChambeau | Thomas Detry | Luke Donald | Jesse Droemer |
| Jason Dufner | Nico Echavarria | Harris English | Bryce Fisher |
| Steven Fisk | Alex Fitzpatrick | Matt Fitzpatrick | Tommy Fleetwood |
| Rickie Fowler | Ryan Fox | Chris Gabriele | Mark Geddes |
| Ryan Gerard | Lucas Glover | Chris Gotterup | Max Greyserman |
| Ben Griffin | Emiliano Grillo | Jordan Gumberg | Harry Hall |
| Brian Harman | Padraig Harrington | Tyrrell Hatton | Zach Haynes |
| Russell Henley | Kazuki Higa | Garrick Higgo | Joe Highsmith |
| Daniel Hillier | Ryo Hisatsune | Rico Hoey | Ian Holt |
| Max Homa | Billy Horschel | Viktor Hovland | Austin Hurt |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | Rasmus Hojgaard | Sungjae Im | Stephan Jaeger |
| Casey Jarvis | Dustin Johnson | Jared Jones | Kota Kaneko |
| Michael Kartrude | Martin Kaymer | John Keefer | Ben Kern |
| Michael Kim | Si Woo Kim | Chris Kirk | Kurt Kitayama |
| Jake Knapp | Brooks Koepka | Min Woo Lee | Ryan Lenahan |
| Haotong Li | Mikael Lindberg | David Lipsky | Shane Lowry |
| Robert MacIntyre | Hideki Matsuyama | Denny McCarthy | Matt McCarty |
| Paul McClure | Max McGreevy | Rory McIlroy | Tom McKibbin |
| Maverick McNealy | Shaun Micheel | Keith Mitchell | Collin Morikawa |
| William Mouw | Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | Joaquin Niemann | Alex Noren |
| Andrew Novak | John Parry | Taylor Pendrith | Marco Penge |
| Ben Polland | J.T. Poston | Aldrich Potgieter | David Puig |
| Andrew Putnam | Jon Rahm | Aaron Rai | Patrick Reed |
| Kristoffer Reitan | Davis Riley | Patrick Rodgers | Justin Rose |
| Adrien Saddier | Garrett Sapp | Jayden Schaper | Xander Schauffele |
| Scottie Scheffler | Adam Schenk | Matti Schmid | Adam Scott |
| Braden Shattuck | Alex Smalley | Cameron Smith | Jordan Smith |
| Austin Smotherman | Elvis Smylie | Travis Smyth | Brandt Snedeker |
| J.J. Spaun | Jordan Spieth | Sam Stevens | Sepp Straka |
| Andy Sullivan | Nick Taylor | Sahith Theegala | Justin Thomas |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | Sami Valimaki | Jhonattan Vegas | Ryan Vermeer |
| Jimmy Walker | Matt Wallace | Bernd Wiesberger | Timothy Wiseman |
| Gary Woodland | Y.E. Yang | Sudarshan Yellamaraju | Cameron Young |
📜 PGA Championship past winner odds
Six of the last eight winners closed with 20/1 odds or shorter, including Brooks Koepka three times (18/1, 10/1, and 20/1). With that said, we've also seen massive longshots win over the last 20 years, including Phil Mickelson in 2021 (200/1) and Keegan Bradley in 2011 (150/1).
| Year | Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Scottie Scheffler |
+650 |
| 2024 | Xander Schauffele |
+1400 |
| 2023 |  Brooks Koepka |
+2000 |
| 2022 |  Justin Thomas |
+1600 |
| 2021 |  Phil Mickelson |
+20000 |
| 2020 |  Collin Morikawa |
+3000 |
| 2019 | Brooks Koepka |
+1000 |
| 2018 | Brooks Koepka |
+1800 |
| 2017 | Justin Thomas |
+3500 |
| 2016 |  Jimmy Walker |
+12500 |
| 2015 |  Jason Day |
+1200 |
Closing odds courtesy of SportsOddsHistory.
❓ PGA Championship odds FAQs
Who has the best odds to win the 2026 PGA Championship?
Scottie Scheffler has the best odds to win the 2026 PGA Championship, with a 16% win probability from Kalshi.
How often are 2026 PGA Championship odds updated?
Books can adjust PGA Championship futures at any time, especially after PGA Tour events, major news, or heavy betting action. On this page, the odds shown reflect the timestamp listed in the odds table. If you’re comparing prices, refresh the page and check the book’s current listing.
Do favorites usually win the PGA Championship?
Not always. PGA Championship outrights are a deep market, and even elite players win at a low rate in a single-event sample. Historically, many winners come from the short-to-mid range rather than the single shortest favorite. Use favorites as a starting point, then compare price to course fit, current form, and alternative markets like Top 10/Top 20.
What’s the best way to trade on the PGA Championship besides outrights?
If you don’t want the volatility of an outright, consider Top 5/Top 10/Top 20 finisher predictions or head-to-head matchups, which can better reflect form and course fit. Props can also offer angles without needing the winner.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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