America’s highest-grossing sports betting operator is “interested in the potential opportunity” of launching a prediction market platform in the U.S.
Key Takeaways
- Flutter Entertainment is exploring launching a U.S. prediction market platform, leveraging its BetFair exchange experience.
- CEO Peter Jackson sees potential, especially in states without legal mobile sports betting, such as California and Texas.
- Legal uncertainties remain, but continued favorable court and policy decisions could drive sportsbooks to enter the prediction market space.
Flutter Entertainment is “closely monitoring” prediction market developments in the US as it evaluates launching in that space, CEO Peter Jackson said during the company’s first quarter corporate earnings call Wednesday. The Ireland-based operator of FanDuel operates BetFair, a prominent sports betting exchange in Europe.
“We already operate the world's largest sports betting exchange … and we have vast experience in this space,” Jackson said.
Some BetFair employees have been brought to the company’s U.S. division to evaluate the potential of an American prediction market, Jackson said. Company officials Wednesday did not announce a pending U.S. BetFair launch or any other prediction platform.
American prediction market interest comes as other companies offering futures contracts including Kalshi and Polymarket have grown in popularity since offering markets on the 2024 presidential election. These sites have since offered a growing number of sports-related events contracts, including winners of the NBA and NHL Finals as well as individual playoff games.
This structure that allows customers to pick winners and losers has led critics to consider them illegal sportsbooks.
FanDuel is "interested in the potential opportunity" of launching prediction markets in California, Texas and other states without legal mobile sports betting, FD parent company Flutter CEO Peter Jackson said during today's earnings call
— Ryan Butler (@ButlerBets) May 7, 2025
Kalshi, which like other prediction markets is federally regulated by the CFTC, has prevailed in court rulings in Nevada and New Jersey arguing that state regulators have no purview to prevent these platforms from offering sports event contracts. Prediction markets are facing other lawsuits, as well as growing pushback from state-level regulators.
A public roundtable scheduled to discuss sports event contracts was cancelled last month.
U.S.-based exchanges such as Sportrade offer bets in a similar way as BetFair but are regulated at the state level, not the CFTC. Sportrade is seeking licensing by the CFTC as a prediction market, which would allow it to operate in all 50 states.
DraftKings, the No. 2 U.S. operator by revenue, explored a license to launch a prediction market but withdrew its application in April.
Though no regulated sportsbook has launched a prediction market, Flutter executives’ comments Wednesday are the clearest indication yet these companies will consider opening markets of their own, particularly if the courts and federal policymakers continue to allow them to do so.
“We're very thoughtful about it, particularly having seen so much success in terms of having the best product (BetFair) in the market,” Jackson said.
Practical prediction market future
A Flutter-powered prediction market would have the biggest impact in states without legal mobile sportsbooks, Jackson said.
The prediction market structure that allows users to purchase singe-game event contracts has far less revenue potential than parlays, which make up an increasing share of major U.S. sportsbooks’ revenue. These platforms don’t have the capacity to price or stack multiple event contracts together. Jackson said there likely wouldn’t be a need for prediction markets in the roughly two-dozen states where FanDuel offers statewide mobile sports wagering.
But Jackson said there is still potential in states with no legal mobile options. The Flutter CEO didn’t mention any states, but that would include California and Texas, which combined have more than 65 million residents.
Launching a prediction market in states where sports gambling is illegal would undoubtedly inflame tensions and increase scrutiny toward the product. FanDuel, and other sportsbooks worried about licensure for their sportsbook products, seem unlikely to launch any prediction market-type offering before or until their legality is determined by federal courts.
But should the courts and policymakers continue ruling in prediction markets’ favor, it’s increasingly clear major sportsbooks will pursue the opportunity to offer these platforms.
