The U.S. Senate passed a resolution on Thursday, banning members and staff from placing wagers using prediction markets. The rules change goes into effect immediately.
Key Takeaways
- Political figures and at least one member of the military have used insider information to trade on prediction market platforms.
- Suspicious trades involving U.S. military actions have been noted over the past few months.
- Kalshi recently fined three politicians for rules violations, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission charged a U.S. soldier for insider trading on Polymarket.
Starting Thursday, U.S. Senators and their staff are barred from trading on prediction markets. The resolution was unanimously passed by the Senate without a roll call vote.
The resolution was introduced by Senator Bernie Moreno who said “engaging in any way in a prediction market or trying to place bets where we might have inside information deteriorates our confidence that our constituents have in us.”
Representative Ashley Hinson said she would be introducing a similar resolution in the House of Representatives.
I am leading this effort in the House. Let’s get it done. 💪 https://t.co/DkVuGwaMg3
— Ashley Hinson (@RepAshleyHinson) April 30, 2026
The Senate’s move comes after stories of suspicious trades involving U.S. military operations circulated on prediction markets news. In one instance, activity on a trade involving the ousting of Iran’s Supreme Leader surged just hours before the U.S. and Israeli military attack.
In another instance, a prediction market trader made more than $400,000 on a trade involving the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. A U.S. soldier who was involved in the capture of President Maduro was subsequently charged with unlawful use of confidential information.
Military operations aren’t the only problematic trades on prediction market platforms. In a number of cases, election-related trades have attracted some insider trading. Last week, Kalshi fined three political candidates for placing trades on their own races.
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Prediction markets applaud Senate ban
Two of the largest prediction markets supported the move by the Senate. Both Polymarket and Kalshi noted that they already have rules in place prohibiting insider information, but the action by the Senate helps bolster their position and integrity.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour noted it was a “great step to increase trust in our markets by making it an industry standard.”
I applaud the Senate for passing this resolution to ban Senators and their offices from trading on prediction markets.
— Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) April 30, 2026
Kalshi already proactively blocks members of congress and enforces against insider trading. This is a great step to increase trust in our markets by making it… https://t.co/fELpqZH5Cf
Meanwhile, Polymarket posted, “We’re in full support of this. Our Rulebook & Terms of Service already prohibit such conduct, but codifying this into law is a step forward for the industry.”
We’re in full support of this.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) April 30, 2026
Our Rulebook & Terms of Service already prohibit such conduct, but codifying this into law is a step forward for the industry.
Happy to help move this forward however we can. https://t.co/PDqGVgZJGd
