Saturday's U.S-Israeli strikes on Iran are making international headlines.
The trending news topic has been generating significant trading volume on prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. The unknowns regarding who will be the next Supreme Leader of Iran, whether the Iranian regime will fall by June 30, and U.S. vs. Iran ceasefire by June 30 are all seeing more than $2 million in trading activity.
Key Takeaways
- When will U.S. strike Iran market on Polymarket, which has settled, saw over $500M in contract trading volume.
- Kalshi and Polymarket customers can still find several prediction markets related to U.S.-Iran situation.
- Attacks are ongoing around the Middle East.
The Khamenei out as Supreme Leader market on Kalshi alone exceeded $54.5 million in trading volume. Kalshi posted on X that "The odds Ali Khamenei is out as Supreme Leader have surged to 68%." Regarding market settlement, the important information note near the bottom of the market states:
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account"If Ali Khamenei dies, the market will resolve upon the confirmed reporting of his death, based on the last traded price prior to his death. If the price is unclear, the Outcome Review Committee will determine a fair market value."
U.S. strikes market sees over half a billion in trading volume
The Feb. 28 U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran settled the "U.S. strikes Iran market by" market on Polymarket, which saw trading volume of more than $529M million. Saturday's date showed trading volume exceeding $89 million. In this particular case, users who purchased contracts through Dec. 31, 2026, will all see event payouts due to the U.S. strikes Iran by wording.
Polymarket provides users with the current handle broken down by potential outcome. Feb. 27 (over $25M), March 31 (over $22M), and Feb. 20 ($18.8M) also saw significant trading volume.
U.S.-Iran war prediction markets still trending
As of early Sunday afternoon, prediction markets related to the U.S.-Iran war taking place in the Middle East were still seeing significant trading activity. Polymarket customers, for example, can purchase "U.S. x Iran ceasefire by...?" contracts. Trading volume has exceeded $2.8 million, with March 2 having the highest handle (over $1.5 million) so far. However, the implied probability of it happening is only 3%.
Here is what the US-Iran ceasefire by market handle currently looks:
- March 2 - $1.5 million
- March 6 - $535,086
- March 15 - $188,464
- March 31 - $237,289
- April 30 - $88,850
In this particular case, the outcome showing the highest handle actually has the lowest implied probability, or percentage change of happening, (3%). April 30 (72%) is currently showing the highest percentage followed by March 31 (59%), and March 15 (43%).
Next Supreme Leader, Strait of Hormuz markets unsettled
This US-Iran situation is far from settled.
As a result, Kalshi users continue purchasing contracts from the unresolved markets. With Khamenei no longer in office, the outcome of who will be the next Supreme Leader of Iran market needs to be resolved. There are 15 potential outcomes listed with Alireza Arafi, part of Iran's current leadership council, (37%) and position abolished (20%) showing the highest probabilities.
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz – a key global oil export route – is another trending market. There is a 38% chance it happens before 2027, 35% chance before August, and 30% chance before May.
