Popular online prediction platform Polymarket is engaged in talks that would value the company at up to $15 billion, according to Bloomberg.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket was valued at $1 billion less than one year ago.
- The company recently received $600 million from the owner of the NYSE.
- Prediction platforms have quickly grown to rival sportsbooks by offering sports event contracts.
Polymarket is looking to raise $400 million from investors as part of the valuation process. If it succeeds, it would represent a two-thirds increase in the company’s worth in just half a year.
Prediction platforms have experienced extraordinary growth over the last year, spurred by the rise of sports event contracts and thanks to highly discussed markets in politics and global events.
In a real-life test of “all press being good press,” Polymarket in particular has found itself firmly in the headlines for various controversies. The outlet offered divisive markets, such as when the U.S. would attack Iran and if a ceasefire would be reached, both of which were followed by insider trading accusations.
In the case of the Iran attack market, six users won close to $1 million by predicting that the U.S. would strike before the end of the month. A coordinated attack with Israel on the final day of the month confirmed the users’ contracts were graded as “winners” despite President Donald Trump’s previous promise that the country would not engage in a war with him in office.
Polymarket reported it now processes more than $1 billion in trades on a weekly basis. The platform takes a percentage of trades based on the category and probability of trades.
Fees are at their highest when contract outcomes are near a 50-50 probability and shrink as the probabilities approach extremes. Crypto has the highest rate (1.80%), followed by economics (1.50%), culture and weather (1.25%), politics (1%), and sports (0.75%).
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Skyrocketing valuations
Polymarket was only valued at $1 billion in June 2025 after Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund led a $200-million round of investment. Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), later pledged $2 billion - which was completed with a $600-million injection in March - at a valuation of $9 billion.
In related prediction markets news, the NYSE said it will become a “global distributor” of Polymarket’s data, aiming to provide investors with real-time market insights.
A venture capital company owned by Donald Trump Jr. is another one of Polymarket’s most notable investors. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission chair, Michael S. Selig, was nominated by Trump and confirmed by the Senate.
Prediction platforms' growing profile recently prompted Polymarket to increase its security measures. In March, it announced a crackdown on insider trading, including the creation of new Market Integrity pages, outlawing trading on illegal tips, and bannng individuals with the ability to strongly influence tradeable events from those markets.
“Markets thrive on clarity,” Neal Kumar, chief legal officer at Polymarket, said at the time of the reveal. “These rule enhancements make our expectations abundantly clear for every participant across both platforms and highlight the compliance infrastructure we have already built.”
Prediction platforms take hold
Although prediction markets only recently reached mass consciousness, a recent survey revealed that 15% of Americans have purchased sports event contracts.
The Siena Research Institute (SRI) and St. Bonaventure University’s Jandoli School of Communication, in their annual American Sports Fanship Survey, found the figure isn’t that far off of the 27% of Americans that said they owned an active sportsbook account.
The 15% figure only represented individuals who purchased contracts in sports markets and not from other areas of prediction market sites. Popular political events, such as the 2024 Presidential election and the 2025 New York City mayoral election, have produced surges in trading activity.
