Polymarket removed a controversial prediction market that allowed customers to win money if a nuclear attack occurred before a series of deadlines.
The market existed for years, but it was removed after it was circulated in a viral post on X on Tuesday.
Key Takeaways
- The market was still available for three days after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran.
- At least $838,520 was traded in a market that allowed customers to predict nuclear action.
- Polymarket had previously offered the nuclear attack market.
Polymarket, as recently as Tuesday evening, allowed customers to buy and sell contracts predicting if and when a nuclear attack would be unleashed.
Recent news headlines were dominated by an armed conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran.
The first coordinated attack occurred on Saturday, Feb. 28, when the U.S. and Israel launched an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, military strongholds, and leadership figures. President Donald Trump confirmed the initial attack in a message to the American people, stating that Tehran (Iran’s capital) “can never have a nuclear weapon.”
While the White House’s actions were meant to deter nuclear action, various Polymarket users stood to gain if a nuclear weapon was detonated.
A post by Lever News founder David Sirota showed that the market was responsible for $838,520 in total trades. That included more than $500,000 in trades that a nuclear weapon would be used by March 31, more than $250,000 one would be dropped by June 30, and about $86,000 that one would be detonated before 2027.
Daily trading volume reached almost $244,000 on Tuesday, and users placed the odds of a nuclear detonation before 2027 at 24%, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Polymarket has created a market that would monetize a nuclear attack amid increasing concerns that bets are happening among government insiders who can make military decisions. pic.twitter.com/r1CbWaLWcw
— David Sirota (@davidsirota) March 3, 2026
The market was gone by early Wednesday morning.
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Polymarket still has nuclear markets
The nuclear detonation market isn’t new to Polymarket, even if it only just reached the public eye. Its website still shows nearly $700,000 worth of trades occurred during the 2023 cycle, when customers were allowed to pick if one would be detonated before June 30 or Dec. 31.
However, visiting the URL for the recent nuclear attack market only loads a message that reads “This event has been archived.”
Polymarket still has numerous nuclear-related markets available, such as whether Russia or the U.S. will conduct nuclear weapons tests by March 31.
There are also markets related to specific events involving the U.S. and Iran, including if they will reach a nuclear deal by March 31, by June 30, or before 2027.
Polymarket users can also trade contracts in markets for Iran to possess a nuclear weapon before 2027, if Iran will test a nuclear weapon before 2027, and if the U.S. or Israel will strike the Fordow nuclear facility in northern Iran before March 31.
Polymarket feeling the heat
This isn’t the first time that Polymarket – which was banned from the U.S. in 2022 for offering unregistered markets – has come under scrutiny for letting customers trade controversial contracts.
The platform recently came under fire for providing contracts related to military strikes in the Middle East, even before the recent attacks on Iran. It also declined to pay $10.5 million in contracts related to the removal of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, claiming that covert snatch-and-grab did not classify as military action like the market required.
Polymarket is also one of numerous prediction markets that are dealing with pushback for their sports event contracts, which allow them to circumvent state-level regulation.
