Google has updated its U.S. advertising policy to allow prediction market advertising only from federally regulated firms, drawing a clear line between event contracts and binary options, which remain prohibited. The revised rules will take effect on Jan. 21 and apply exclusively to what Google defined as "Exchange-Listed Event Contracts."
Key Takeaways
- Google to allow U.S. ads for "Exchange-Listed Event Contracts".
- Binary options advertising remain fully prohibited, including ads from offshore platforms.
- The policy gives regulated firms access to Google's advertising channel.
Under the policy, only platforms authorized by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) or brokerages registered with the National Futures Association that provide access to approved designated contract markets qualify to advertise. Platforms operating outside that framework, including offshore firms, are excluded, regardless of market popularity or user base.
Google said that it relies on regulatory status as the primary eligibility standard rather than product design or market topic. Although the company has no regulatory role, it tied advertising access to federal supervision of the underlying financial instruments. Prediction markets that met those conditions are categorized under Google's Financial Services advertising rules.
Binary options are still strictly prohibited on Google’s advertising platform. The prohibition applies not only to platforms but also to affiliates, educational resources, signaling pages, and review pages on brokers that relate to binary options offers.
According to Google, the move is designed to protect consumers since there have been cases of deceptive advertising, fraud, and loss of funds using binary options.
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Google expands visibility of prediction markets across finance products
The advertising update followed an earlier move to surface prediction market data within Google Finance tools. Last November, Google announced that odds offered by Kalshi and Polymarket would soon be available for U.S. users. This means that over a million users will have access through search and finance-related functionalities.
Google explained that the move would enable its users to discover opportunities in the future as well as observe market expectations over time. The data reflected aggregated positions taken by users on each platform, covering outcomes ranging from economic indicators and elections to entertainment awards and sporting events.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket assert that their products are private event contracts and thus should fall under the regulation of commodities, not gambling regulators.
That interpretation continued to face resistance from state attorneys general and some federal lawmakers, who argue the platforms effectively replicated sports betting and other wagering formats under a different label.
Google did not clarify whether finance widgets would link directly to the underlying platforms. Representatives for the companies involved have not provided details on implementation.
The combination of expanded data visibility and restricted advertising access underscored Google's approach: increasing informational exposure to prediction markets while limiting promotional reach strictly to firms operating within recognized federal regulatory structures.
