NBA commissioner Adam Silver said the league views prediction markets like sports betting operators, so Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo did nothing wrong when he became a Kalshi shareholder earlier this month.
Key Takeaways
- The NBA commissioner says Antetokounmpo invested less than 1% of Kalshi's value.
- Silver is paying close attention to the prediction market rise.
- The commish wants more sports betting regulation abroad.
Speaking at NBA All-Star Weekend, Silver spoke about Antetokounmpo's investment in the prediction platform, insisting the superstar acted within the league's regulations.
“We have a rule that was collectively bargained with the Players Association that players can make, I will call them, de minimis investments in sports betting companies, and we're applying the same rule to prediction markets,” Silver said, per the Sports Business Journal. “That means their investment cannot amount to over 1%. In the case of Giannis, from what I understand, it's a minuscule investment, much smaller than 1%. So that does not violate the rules that have been collectively bargained with the Players Association.”
Kalshi was valued at over $11 billion in late 2025, and trading volumes on the popular platform continue to skyrocket.
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Keeping a close eye
More than a decade ago, Silver advocated for widespread and legalized sports betting, but he isn’t quite sure what to make of prediction markets, other than lumping them in with sportsbooks.
“Obviously, it's an issue that I'm paying enormous amount of attention to,” Silver said. “It's rapidly evolving. Prediction markets have now come on the scene fairly recently as, I don't know how else to say it, major sports betting marketplaces.”
Antetokounmpo is the first NBA player to get involved with a prediction platform in this way. His announcement came shortly after Kalshi closed its market on which team he would be playing for after the trade deadline, sparking integrity questions and debates.
Massive difference
Silver is treating prediction markets like sportsbooks, but the oversight is vastly different. Sports betting is legal and regulated in 39 U.S. states, which have controlled wagering since PASPA was overturned in 2018. The NBA and its teams have partnerships with sports betting operators.
However, the league has yet to strike any marketing or business deals with prediction markets, which are regulated federally by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and available in legal sports betting and non-sports betting states. This has led to numerous legal battles between prediction markets and state regulators, where sports event contracts are colliding with legalized sportsbooks.
Massachusetts and Nevada are just two of a rising number of jurisdictions fighting back against trading exchanges, which offer similar spreads, totals, moneylines, and props as sports betting operators.
“Whether prediction markets are allowed to go forward in the form they're in now will, I think, be ultimately an issue for the courts and for Congress,” Silver said.
Global safeguards
Silver extended his integrity concerns to more than just legalized U.S. sportsbooks. He said he rarely hears talk about other countries that have legalized wagering on the NBA and the lack of safeguards outside the U.S.
“It concerns me in the totality of all this betting that we need a better handle, no pun intended, on all the different activity that's happening out there,” Silver said. “There's been some - Sportradar is a company we deal with now. There's others, massive database companies that are looking at getting into this business for all leagues. So there are ways that you can, in essence, scrape the internet - I don't know a better way to say it - for whatever chatter is happening out there and try to pick up all the markets, legal and illegal, to see whatever aberrant behavior is out there. So I'm paying a lot of attention to that.”
Big issues
The NBA already has its own gambling problems. Miami Heat guard Terry Rozier and former Toronto Raptors player Jontay Porter have both been implicated in betting scandals.
Rozier faces federal charges for manipulating a game performance and allegedly cashing in by defrauding sportsbooks with a friend. He pleaded not guilty and is out on bail following an October arrest.
Porter was banned by the league in 2024 after an investigation showed he took himself out of two games, and federal prosecutors later discovered he helped a group of bettors hit on a series of under bets to pay off his gambling debts. Porter is awaiting a prison sentence for committing wire fraud.
Silver has taken several actions to help protect the NBA's integrity, including calling for more regulation and potential prohibition of player prop wagers. Prediction markets throw another wrench into that, with contracts being traded on players and teams that aren’t receiving the same kind of watchdog treatment as sports betting markets.
