Anyone hoping that new leadership of a certain federal regulator would usher in a new approach to overseeing the increasingly controversial world of event contracts, including those tied to sports, may soon find themselves disappointed.
Comments made Tuesday by Brian Quintenz, President Donald Trump’s nominee to become the next chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), suggest the former commissioner and Kalshi board member will let the fun with prediction markets and event contracts continue.
Appearing before the U.S. Senate’s Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Committee, which is examining his nomination, Quintenz made what was interpreted as favorable remarks for federally regulated prediction markets.
- President Trump's nominee to become the next chairman of the CFTC sounds like he doesn't plan on curtailing the expansion of federally regulated prediction markets into controversial areas like sports.
- During a nomination hearing on Tuesday, that nominee, Brian Quintenz, put forward a reading of the law that suggests he won't be the one to get prediction markets like Kalshi to rein in their efforts.
- Those efforts have irked state-level sports betting regulators and some gaming operators, but courts have yet to order Kalshi and others to cease the trading of sports event contracts.
For example, Quintenz did not commit to a Quintenz-led CFTC reviewing event contracts that look a little too much like online sports betting.
The current version of the CFTC has declined to do it either, although it did take some stands while Joe Biden was still president.
“I think this is an area of the marketplace that the agency used flexibility that it found in the statute in a way that hampered its growth,” Quintenz said.
The answer was in response to a question from California Sen. Adam Schiff, whose constituents include casino-operating Native American tribes worried about event contracts competing with their businesses.
“In my view, if betting on the outcome of a sporting event looks like sports betting, looks like gaming, smells like gaming, sounds like gaming, there are winners and losers like gaming, it's probably gaming,” Schiff said. “And if indeed it is determined that these contracts do amount to prohibited gaming, of violating tribal sovereignty and jurisdiction under the [Indian Gaming Regulatory Act], will you require the contracts to stop?”
1/ If you haven't read the Q&A related to prediction markets from @BrianQuintenz's @CFTC hearing, you should ASAP. It's the clearest statement of intent re: how the USFG intends to handle PMs (spoiler: floodgates are not just opened, but removed and put in deep storage).
— Chris Grove (@OPReport) June 11, 2025
A 🧵👇
Quintenz responded that, should he be confirmed, he believes he would have to abide by the Commodity Exchange Act. And, judging by his reading of the law, it sounds like Quintenz sees no reason for the CFTC to be the one to shut down trading of event contracts tied to sports or politics.
“If there is a conflict between the Commodity Exchange Act and the other act you mentioned, I believe that's best resolved through Congress,” Quintenz said. “I believe the Commodity Exchange Act is very clear about the purpose of derivatives markets, the purpose of risk management and price discovery, and that events can serve a function in that mandate.”
No limit soldier
The remarks from the likely next chair of the CFTC, which oversees prediction markets and event contracts, suggest he won’t be the one to curb their enthusiasm.
“Quintenz seems to have zero intent to limit what can be offered on prediction markets,” longtime gambling industry analyst and investor Chris Grove wrote on Twitter/X. “The test he ultimately articulated: ‘markets that provide for hedging, risk management, price discovery, and price dissemination.’ Aka: everything.”
Oklahoma, we are inside you. pic.twitter.com/fn1rtYWXzw
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) June 11, 2025
Over the past six months or so, prediction markets like Kalshi have gone from letting users trade contracts tied to economic events and elections to sports. That has created a situation where there is now de facto sports wagering in all 50 states, not just the ones that have legalized that kind of betting.
Several state-level regulators of legal sports betting have tried to get Kalshi and others to knock it off by issuing cease-and-desist notices to the prediction markets.
However, the prediction markets have fired back with lawsuits, and thus far have won decisions in their favor based on the fact that they are overseen federally by the CFTC. Those legal matters are ongoing.
The CFTC under the administration of Donald Trump (whose son advises Kalshi) has declined to rein in the recent expansion of prediction markets. And, under a Chairman Quintenz, it sounds unlikely that roadblocks will finally be thrown up.
“Quintenz also appears strongly inclined to defend the CFTC's right to enable these markets,” Grove added. “When asked about possible conflicts with tribal rights under IGRA, his response, as I read it, was a) that tribal sovereignty doesn't preempt the CFTC's right, and b) that tribes can be regulated by the CFTC and offer [prediction markets], so there is no problem.”
