A California gubernatorial candidate used prediction market platform Kalshi to purchase political outcome contracts on himself.
Key Takeaways
- The Republican candidate purchased $98.76 worth of contracts to be California’s next governor.
- Kalshi began offering election outcome markets in the fall of 2025.
- Langford is up against a host of politically experienced Democratic candidates.
Republican Kyle Langford publicly stated on the social media site X and recorded buying $98.76 worth of contracts on his Kalshi account for him to become the Golden State’s governor in 2026. If “Yes” comes true, Langford will collect a $405 payout, giving him a profit of $306.32.
I just bet $100 💵 that I, Kyle Langford will be the next Governor of California, join me
— Kyle Langford (@KyleLangfordCA) May 24, 2025
(if you believe 🙏🏻) 😎 @Kalshi
🐻✝️🇺🇸 https://t.co/XMk25PuDVr pic.twitter.com/A67hRZb2Za
Kalshi operates in all 50 U.S. states, despite receiving cease-and-desist letters from numerous jurisdictions where state-regulated sports betting occurs. U.S. sportsbooks do not offer odds on political elections. Kalshi won a court decision last year to offer prediction outcome markets for the 2024 Presidential Election, as well as markets for other offices that were filled.
Since trading markets are still fairly new, a candidate purchasing their own contracts is not common. And according to Kalshi’s market on Tuesday morning, Langford was listed seventh in odds among the market’s candidates with a 6% chance of winning the race.
A “Yes” contract costs 8 cents while a “No” contract has a market price of 99 cents. The California 2026 governor market has a volume of a little more than $3,500.
Stiff competition
Langford, the executive director of the California First PAC, is up against a host of more politically experienced candidates in the gubernatorial race.
Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa leads Kalshi’s prediction market with odds of 21% to become California’s next governor. The former Los Angeles mayor served on Barack Obama’s Transition Economic Advisory Board and as chair of the 2012 Democratic National Convention.
Four more Democrats have better odds than Langford to win the race, including former California senator Toni Atkins at 16%. Katie Porter, a former U.S. Representative, is at 15% with California Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis listed fifth at 14% odds to be the state’s next governor.
Langford does have the highest odds among Kalshi’s Republican candidates.
