Bill Hornbuckle isn’t buying the idea that federally regulated prediction markets and their sports event contracts are something more than the traditionally state-regulated business of sports betting.
“It is without a doubt sports betting, full stop,” the MGM Resorts International CEO said Thursday during a meeting of the Nevada Gaming Commission.
- MGM CEO Bill Hornbuckle told Nevada regulators that prediction markets are simply sports betting and suggested they should face the same rules and taxes.
- A split is emerging as brick-and-mortar casino operators remain skeptical of prediction markets while online-only companies push to launch them.
- State regulatory pressure, highlighted by Nevada’s warnings to licensees, is driving traditional casino operators’ caution and fueling industry-wide tension.
Hornbuckle was before the commission for a suitability and licensing application, speaking to a Nevada sports betting regulator that has drawn a line in the sand against prediction markets.
In fact, last week, the Nevada Gaming Control Board announced DraftKings and FanDuel, which are planning to launch prediction markets, were walking away from the state and its view that sports event contracts are sports wagering.
Hornbuckle’s comments showed he sees things similarly. He thanked the board for its “clarity” on prediction markets, or “predictive gaming” as he also called them.
The CEO (whose applications were approved by the commission) said MGM plans to keep an eye on prediction markets “and ultimately see what we can do to make sure it comes in line with proper regulations, proper tax, etc.”
Recent news and Hornbuckle’s comments suggest an online-gambling dichotomy has been created by prediction markets.
Fanatics CEO @michaelrubin tells @SaraEisen that they are launching Fanatics Predicts in the next few weeks with @cryptocom. pic.twitter.com/yPIrgHyz2k
— Jess Golden (@JGolden5) November 20, 2025
Brick-and-mortar casino operators such as MGM, Caesars, and PENN seem much more reluctant to join the party and launch their own prediction markets. That’s true even as they are already involved in the online gambling business in the U.S., such as MGM through its part-ownership of BetMGM.
(MGM's partner in BetMGM, Entain, as well as BetMGM management, share MGM's opinion of prediction markets.)
Meanwhile, online sportsbook operators that lack the same history with brick-and-mortar gambling, such as DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics (the CEO of which told CNBC on Thursday that it plans to soon launch its own prediction markets) are much more willing.
“This is a major threat to the industry,” PENN CEO Jay Snowden said during their latest earnings call.
“We see predictions as a significant incremental opportunity,” DraftKings CEO Jason Robins said during theirs.
The split was further highlighted by the recent decision of DraftKings and FanDuel to depart the American Gaming Association. The reason? You guessed it: prediction markets.
'Don't do that'
The split has emerged for a few reasons.
One is the opportunity presented by prediction markets, which are regulated federally in the U.S. by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This means prediction markets can facilitate wagering on sports (as well as other things) in states that have yet to legalize sports betting, such as California and Texas.
Therefore, online sportsbook operators can launch prediction markets in those forbidden states while it's business as usual in states where they are already authorized and licensed. While the legality of sports event contracts used by prediction markets is being challenged in several courts, for now, they remain largely permissible.
Even so, some state regulators have warned that dabbling in prediction markets could have repercussions for licensees.
That was underlined by the Nevada Gaming Control Board last week and could help explain why brick-and-mortar casino operators are more cautious about getting involved in the prediction business. DraftKings and FanDuel don't have to worry about maintaining licenses for big, money-making resorts in Las Vegas; MGM does.
“If a Nevada licensee chooses to offer sports event contracts in Nevada or decides to partner with other entities offering sports event contracts in the state, the Board will consider these developments as it evaluates the suitability of the entity to maintain a Nevada gaming license under state law," the Nevada sports betting regulator said. “Moreover, even if a licensee does not offer sports event contracts or wagers in Nevada, if the licensee offers sports event contracts in another state without complying with the other state’s restrictions or licensing regime, partners with another entity that offers sports event contracts in another state without complying with the other state’s restrictions or licensing regime, or acts in violation of a compacted tribal right, the licensee may be subject to discipline.”
Hornbuckle spoke previously about prediction markets during October’s Global Gaming Expo in Las Vegas, where he highlighted the persuasive power of state regulators on casino operators.
“You get a product in the marketplace that’s unregulated in the context of gaming … not taxed, is competitively a major disadvantage for us,” Hornbuckle said. “And so when we have gaming regulators in three states now telling us, ‘Don’t do that,’ we have no choice but to take a position. Are we following it? Would we be a fast-follower if for some reason it were to break through? Absolutely. But it does invite … the notion that the federal government will step into our space. And that is something this industry has historically and categorically said, ‘Thank you, but no thank you,’ to for decades.”
