If the Kalshi CEO is right in his suspicions, customers will soon be able to to buy prediction market contracts through the same financial brokerages that hold their 401(k).
Tarek Mansour suggested at the Solana Accelerate conference in New York Friday that the company anticipates having deals with retirement account companies before the end of 2026.
Key Takeaways
- Kalshi offers prediction markets in industries such as sports and politics.
- Plans are for 401(k) providers to offer contracts, but not within 401(k) accounts.
- Mansour said there are plans to “aggressively” develop its offerings.
Mansour’s comments came at a panel titled “Regulation and Innovation in the Realm of Prediction Markets,” an area in which Kalshi has been embroiled in recent controversy.
“By the end of the year, I think we're projecting another maybe 5 to 6 brokers and I think within the next year and a half, I would say most mainstream financial brokerages – like where you have your 401(k)s – will have access to Kalshi's products, our prediction markets, in-app,” said Mansour.
A Kalshi spokesperson later elaborated on Mansour’s comments. They said that Kalshi did not have plans to make prediction markets available within 401(k) accounts, rather that they would be offered by preeminent financial companies.
Notably, Charles Schwab, founder of leading 401(k) provider Charles Schwab Corporation, invested $30 million in series A funding to Kalshi in 2022.
The fight over sports contracts
One of the biggest roadblocks to Kalshi’s sustainability in the world of sports is its absence of parlays.
Sportsbooks typically have a hold around $.30 per dollar wagered on parlays, six times higher than the $.05 per dollar wagered on straight bets. That means that prediction platforms stand to gain significantly if they can figure out how to incorporate multi-staged predictions into one contract.
Although it’s unclear what Kalshi has in store, Mansour said there are plans for innovations.
“It’s not about the yes or no question … it’s underlying,” Mansour said when asked if Kalshi could launch markets with outcomes other than “yes” and “no.” “We’ll probably have some sort of new structures in Q3 and Q4 this year, and we’re going to go much more aggressively next year.”
Despite those comments and the increasing relevance of sports contracts, Mansour largely downplayed their importance on Kalshi’s platform.
Keeping in line with regulators
Prediction markets have been the source of dispute for regulators at multiple levels.
Joe Biden’s administration took a negative view of political prediction markets, which allow customers to purchase contracts related to outcomes of future political races or developments.
Kalshi, however, won a 2024 lawsuit against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and was granted permission to offer political contracts under the commission’s oversight.
Several state gambling regulators also sent cease-and-desist orders to Kalshi over their sports prediction markets. Regulators claimed that by allowing users the opportunity to purchase different contracts related to the outcomes of sports events, Kalshi effectively offered unlicensed sports betting services to its patronage.
Kalshi maintained that it was not liable to state regulation since it was a federally regulated company and had abided by the CFTC’s guidelines.
