Nasdaq submitted an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to release prediction market options, according to Reuters, citing a regulatory filing.
Key Takeaways
- Customers would theoretically be allowed to predict the outcome of stocks’ performances.
- The CFTC has largely taken control of regulating prediction platforms.
- The top prediction platforms reported $10 billion in trading volume last November.
The Nasdaq 100 follows 100 of the largest companies not in the financial industry listed on Nasdaq’s exchange. That includes companies such as Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon.
The Micro Index represents 1% of the value of the full Nasdaq 100 Index. Its purpose is to offer a lower-cost way to access the Nasdaq 100.
Investors typically use Nasdaq to buy and sell shares for companies. By applying for trading permissions, Nasdaq aims to expand into an increasingly popular prediction industry.
Rather than putting money behind companies they expect to perform well or shorting them, consumers would be allowed to trade binary yes-or-no outcomes related to specific stock prices; for example, if Apple’s (AAPL) stock price, valued at $265.39 at the time of writing, will hit $270 by the end of the week.
One of the primary differences between investing and trading is that a prediction contract has a fixed end date. In traditional investing, consumers can hold on to their stock for as long as they choose.
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A regulatory shift?
Prediction market sites gained significant popularity in 2025 and in the early months of 2026, largely due to their success in professional and amateur sports. Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket offered odds for a variety of events, often giving customers more profitable options than at legal sportsbooks, and they allow customers in states that did not legalize sports betting to legally incorporate predictions into their sports-watching.
The Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has been in charge of regulating prediction platforms, which have controversially claimed they should not be held liable to state regulators so long as they are compliant with their federal guidelines.
However, SEC chair Paul Atkins in February said his commission could soon become involved in overseeing prediction markets.
“Prediction markets are exactly one thing where there’s overlapping jurisdiction potentially,” he said during testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. “It’s mostly, at least currently, on the CFTC side,” the SEC chair continued. “But we need to be harmonized in the way we’re addressing these markets.
“I think we have enough authority. A security is a security regardless of how it is, and some of the nuance with prediction markets and the products depends on wording and what exactly is being done.”
Prediction markets not going anywhere
Much like when sports betting was first legalized, a prediction market arms race is unfolding.
While state regulators continue to take issue with sports event contracts offered by prediction platforms, major companies, including Forbes, have launched their own prediction platforms. Kalshi and Polymarket also reported $10 billion in trading volume during November 2025, one year after they wrapped up $3.6 billion in trades related to the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Nasdaq is the latest example of another prediction market designed to capitalize on a new corner of the industry with stocks.
