A roller-coaster Masters golf tournament produced the single biggest sports event in Kalshi's history.
Key Takeaways
- A record $545 million was traded on the Masters at Kalshi.
- Sports accounted for 85% of the prediction platform’s record week.
- Rory McIlroy wasn’t the biggest sportsbook liability heading into the tournament.
The platform’s users traded a record $545 million, the most of any single sports event, during the four-day major. The Masters outright champion market reached $460 million, placing it second behind the “Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?” market, the all-time single-market volume leader at $535 million.
Combined with heavily traded political and U.S.-Iran conflict markets, the week of the Masters produced Kalshi’s biggest single week in company history, with over $3.4 billion in volume. Sports, which included MLB, NBA, NHL, NCAA men’s basketball, and more, accounted for over 85% of the week’s trades.
Polymarket, another global leader among prediction market sites, produced nearly $2.5 billion in trading last week, a 25% year-over-year increase.
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Major markets
Kalshi created dozens of markets surrounding golf’s first major of the year. Rory McIlroy won the event Sunday, and Scottie Scheffler finished second.
Kalshi went well beyond just an outright winner, offering trades on a thorough catalog of markets like each-round leaders, scores on specific holes for some of the top players in the field, head-to-head matchups, props, and more.
The Masters is the most-bet golf tournament for legal U.S. sports betting operators, so it’s no surprise Kalshi saw such a big bump in trading. The prediction platform is offered in highly populated states California and Texas, which don’t have regulated sportsbooks.
Live trading
The nature of the event at Augusta National likely also helped spur Kalshi’s big week.
McIlroy surged to a six-stroke lead after Friday’s second round, but he blew that advantage during Saturday’s third round and entered Sunday’s final round tied atop the leaderboard with Cameron Young. McIlroy fell out of the lead Sunday before recapturing first place late in the round and holding on to win his second consecutive green jacket, becoming just the fourth golfer in history to go back-to-back at Augusta National.
Kalshi allowed users to purchase contracts that could be sold at any point during the tournament’s markets close, which opened up opportunities for live trading as the leaderboard shifted throughout Saturday and Sunday.
Sportsbook recap
Meanwhile, sportsbooks likely did well on outright winner bets that were placed before the tournament began Thursday. With odds of +1,200 at BetMGM, McIlroy wasn’t in the top three in the operator’s biggest liabilities. He was getting less than 4% of the bets and just 3% of the handle before the first round.
Bryson DeChambeau was one of the most-bet golfers at multiple sportsbooks, and he failed to make the cut. Operators lucked out on Scheffler, who made a furious rally Saturday to get into contention.
A FanDuel spokesperson told Covers on Monday that Scheffler and Young were the most-bet golfers by tickets. McIlroy and Scheffler took the most money.
After he blew the big lead Saturday, McIlroy went from -275 to +150 at BetMGM heading into Sunday. At that point, he led in handle at 18.7%.
