Investment management service Wealthsimple is aiming to introduce a prediction market trading platform in Canada, allowing consumers to buy and sell contracts related to real-world events.
The platform won’t be allowed to offer contracts related to any level of sports or elections, per its regulatory approval agreement.
Key Takeaways
- Provinces and territories can still decline to authorize Wealthsimple’s prediction markets.
- Any contracts related to the outcomes of sports events or elections are not authorized.
- Kalshi and Polymarket did not reveal if they plan to enter the Canadian market.
Ontario-based Wealthsimple received approval from the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) to offer contracts tied to economics, financial markets, and climate trends, the company confirmed.
The approval comes in spite of a 2017 decision that largely ruled short-term binary contracts were illegal in Canada.
“(The restrictions create) a safe place for Canadian residents to trade these types of contracts,” Matthew Burgoyne, a partner and chair of digital assets and blockchain practice at Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP in Calgary.
While most entities are prohibited from offering these markets, the Canadian Securities Administrators allows for exceptions to be made for CIRO-regulated firms.
Wealthsimple must still receive approval from each province and territory to offer its contract markets to local consumers. The Ontario Securities Commission said that it would not share the details of individual cases, per The Globe and Mail.
Although Wealthsimple does not yet have live markets servicing Canadian customers, its approval still marks a major step in the direction of growing the nation’s prediction industry; it is only the second company to receive CIRO approval, following Interactive Brokers Canada last April.
Wealthsimple would also target a wider audience than Interactive Brokers, which is primarily for experienced traders and institutions.
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Will prediction markets be a hit in Canada?
Prediction markets allow users to stake money that certain events will or won’t occur by purchasing “Yes” or “No” contracts.
Canadians who are unfamiliar or inexperienced with prediction markets can gain a solid understanding of their operations by looking at the U.S. Spurred by the rapid rise of sports event contracts, prediction platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket enjoyed unprecedented growth during late 2025 and early 2026, with both platforms seeking funding based on valuations of roughly $20 billion.
The platforms’ growth was tied to their enticing prices, expanded jurisdiction in states without legal sports betting, and their diversity of markets. However, they have also been the source of strong controversy, as many state gaming officials have labeled the platforms "illegal gambling operators.”
Fears of insider trading have also been rampant. Kalshi and Polymarket both took recent steps to crack down on nefarious trading, but not before one individual made $430,000 for predicting the capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and six individuals made close to $1 million with contracts requiring the U.S. to attack Iran before the end of February.
Canadians have used VPNs to access platforms not licensed to operate north of the border, leading to trouble for the platforms. The Ontario Securities Commission last April finalized a settlement with Polymarket that included a two-year ban and a $200,000 fine for offering markets to customers in Ontario from June 2020 through May 2023. Ontario is listed as a banned region on Polymarket’s website, although it is the only region in Canada to appear on the list.
The spread of prediction markets
Any prediction company that wishes to enter the Canadian market will not be allowed to offer sports or election markets, barring a change in regulation. Even if national securities regulators approve a company for operation, provincial and territorial officials can still prohibit their operations.
Kalshi and Polymarket have not revealed if they plan to enter the Canadian market, per The Globe and Mail.
Earlier this week, two U.S. senators proposed bipartisan legislation that would ban prediction markets from offering sports event contracts. Several prominent sports betting companies’ stock prices surged in the immediate aftermath, seeing as sports event contracts cross audiences with sportsbooks.
