In a fair fight between online sportsbooks and prediction markets, DraftKings CEO Jason Robins has reason to believe that bettors would rather hit the books than buy and sell event contracts.
- DraftKings CEO Jason Robins believes that traditional online sportsbooks have clear advantages over prediction markets, particularly in states where both options are available.
- Robins said that prediction markets face limitations in offering the same variety and complexity of bets as sportsbooks.
- While DraftKings is watching the growth of prediction markets with interest, especially in states without legalized sports betting, Robins says the company is in no rush to announce any moves into the space until it’s fully prepared to act.
Asked on Thursday about the topic that has been dominating the sports betting discourse lately, federally regulated prediction markets, Robins said the revenue opportunity for those exchanges is “likely to be very significant” in states that have not legalized online sports betting.
However, Robins added that he thinks the opportunity for prediction markets in states that do have legal online sportsbooks is “likely to be fairly small.”
One of the reasons Robins cited for this thinking was the United Kingdom, where there are both legalized sportsbooks and betting exchanges. The exchanges, Robins said, are earning a “single digit percentage" of the total revenue.
“Which I think is an indication that when both products are available, customers overwhelmingly prefer the traditional online sports betting product,” Robins said at the BofA Securities 2025 Gaming and Lodging Conference on Thursday.
DraftKings CEO Jason Robins spoke at a BofA event Thursday, and was asked about prediction markets. Here's a snippet, in which JR explains why he thinks it's harder for a prediction market to offer what an online sportsbook can. A DK can limit sharps, but a PM can't, he suggests. pic.twitter.com/JcCeGgDgHL
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) September 5, 2025
The other reason Robins gave could irk some residents of #gamblingtwitter.
According to the DraftKings CEO, it’s going to be tough for a prediction market like Kalshi or Polymarket to have as “full” a betting menu as the online sports betting sites in the U.S. One of the big reasons for that, Robins said, is risk management.
“When you are putting, as a market maker, a market up on an exchange, you just have to be comfortable with anyone taking that liquidity, anyone can fill that order,” he said. “Versus we are able to place limits on sharps and other people, and that is the only reason we're able to offer the variety of bets and things that we can. If we offered all the different bets that we offered, and we weren't able to do that, we would get picked off and destroyed, right? So I think that is going to be a limiting factor for not just the variety of bets, but parlays and other sorts of combinability and things like that.”
Robins gave the example of a multi-legged parlay. For DraftKings, they need to have the money to pay out the winnings to however many people make the bet. A market maker for an exchange, where there is always supposed to be someone or some company on the other end of the bet, would have to be willing to do the same.
“So I just think it's virtually impossible, under that type of regulatory framework, to ever have something that could be as rich and varied as what you see in an online sportsbook,” he said. “But no doubt there will be, in a state that doesn't have an online sportsbook available, at least a legal one, there'll be people that just want to go and do game lines and other, simpler stuff that's available.”
While that could still be “pretty good” for bettors in that state, in a place where DraftKings and others are authorized, a prediction market will find it challenging for its product to compete, Robins suggested.
If your chief rival jumped off a bridge, would you?
The comments from the CEO of one of the biggest online sportsbooks in the U.S. explains why DraftKings and other traditional online gambling operators have not gone all-in on prediction markets yet.
Those CFTC-regulated prediction markets can operate in all 50 states, rather than just the ones that have legalized sports betting. So, all over the U.S., prediction markets are offering users the opportunity to bet "yes" or "no" on certain event outcomes, including sporting event outcomes, by buying event contracts.
That said, the legality of sports event contracts is being challenged through the courts. Moreover, despite their lack of geographical limits in the U.S. at the moment, prediction markets do have some restrictions. One is the need to pair buyers with sellers, and if the latter isn’t keen to offer a 10-leg SGP stuffed with player props, a bettor could take their business elsewhere.
Still, the business that the likes of Kalshi, Crypto.com, and other CFTC-regulated prediction markets are already doing is enough to have piqued the interest of online sportsbook operators like DraftKings. Kalshi, for example, facilitated more than $26 million in wagering on the NFL’s first regular-season game on Thursday night.
Game by the numbers
— Kalshi Sports (@KalshiSports) September 5, 2025
Kalshi volume: $26.6m
Spit ejections: 1
Rizzler commercials: 1
Weather delays: 1
AJ Brown catches: 1
Fantasy and sports betting operators are beginning to tip-toe into the exchange business in the U.S. Underdog is already offering sports “Prediction Picks” in sports betting-less states in partnership with Crypto.com, and DraftKings’ chief rival, FanDuel, has formed an alliance with CME Group, “the world's leading derivatives marketplace.”
The FanDuel-CME partnership announcement did not mention sports, and it appears DraftKings is similarly waiting and seeing what the courts ultimately decide about those kind of event contracts.
State-regulated sportsbook operators like DraftKings have to worry about upsetting their state regulators as well. In Ohio, for example, the Casino Control Commission has already issued a warning to sportsbook operators thinking about dabbling in prediction markets.
Some of Robins’ other prediction market-related comments suggested that DraftKings is not in a particular hurry to announce something about prediction markets, even if they are indeed exploring their opportunities.
“I don't think we feel like we have to announce what our plans are until, if the time came, we were ready to actually act on those plans, or pretty close to ready to act on those plans,” he said on Thursday.
