Prediction markets, and more specifically sports event contracts, won’t likely gain immediate clarity if the current Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) chair nominee takes over.
Key Takeaways
- Michael Selig was tabbed after the White House withdrew the nomination of Brian Quintenz.
- The Senate Agriculture Committee wanted Selig’s opinion on the legality of sports contracts.
- Selig offered little insight into the future of prediction markets.
Michael Selig, who President Donald Trump picked to run the CFTC after the White House withdrew Brian Quintenz’s nomination, gave few direct answers to questions about prediction markets being compared to legal sports betting during Wednesday’s nomination hearing with the Senate Agriculture Committee.
When asked by Sen. Tina Smith of Minnesota if Selig would differentiate between event contracts and sports bets and enforce a prohibition on contracts that she said violate tribal gaming pacts, the nominee mostly sidestepped the issue. He never gave a clear response to whether or not sports contracts are constituted as gaming.
“As someone who spent many years practicing law at law firms as well as studying the law and law school, these are complex issues as to interpretation of what it means to constitute ‘gaming,’” Selig said in his response. “And of course, I have the utmost respect for our judges that are working on these issues in the court system, and I intend to always adhere to the law and follow what judicial decisions tell me to follow.
“I also believe that these types of issues are ones we can work through together. Some of them are Congressional issues as to whether we change statutes in certain areas. But of course, I was not at the CFTC at the time that this portion of the Dodd-Frank Act was drafted. I was not working in this committee or on the Hill at the time. And so these are just very challenging interpretive questions that I will look to the courts on.”
CFTC Chair nominee Mike Selig answers question about prediction markets, which he would oversee. Defers to courts. pic.twitter.com/tX43bHCi6c
— Fairplaygov (@fairplaygov) November 19, 2025
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Court battles
Prediction market platforms, like Kalshi and Crypto.com, have come under fire this year for offering sports contracts in legal sports betting states. Nevada and several other states have issued cease-and-desist letters.
Kalshi and Crypto.com both have responded by filing lawsuits against the Silver State, with litigation still pending. Kalshi received an injunction that reportedly could be lifted by a judge. Other lawsuits have been filed against and by regulators in other jurisdictions, including New Jersey.
Since PASPA was overturned in 2018, states have legalized and regulated sports betting in the U.S. The CFTC federally regulates prediction markets and has viewed them as legal derivatives, but the U.S. agency has never specified the difference between event contracts and sports betting markets, leaving the future of Kalshi and other trading exchanges in limbo.
For now, though, it appears to be a court battle that could extend multiple years, which is why FanDuel and DraftKings, the two sports betting market-share leaders in the U.S., are launching their own prediction platforms over the next few months.
“Today’s hearing left important questions unanswered regarding Mr. Selig’s views on prediction markets’ foray into sports betting,” industry trade group the American Gaming Association said in a statement on Wednesday. “Rather than explaining how the agency he is nominated to lead would interpret and enforce its clear rules that prohibit gaming, he indicated that he would instead wait on judicial determinations that could take years to resolve – and leave consumers at risk in the interim.
“The American Gaming Association will continue to defend the longstanding sovereignty of states and tribes to regulate gaming, and work with Congress to ensure the CFTC prevents gambling masquerading as financial products.”
AGA's Statement on Today's Hearing in the Senate Agriculture Committee on the Nomination of Michael Selig to be Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission: pic.twitter.com/ybOzl0Rx22
— American Gaming Association (@AmericanGaming) November 20, 2025
Staying consistent
During Wednesday’s hearing, Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey brought up NBA betting scandals and the role of compliance issues that prediction markets don’t regulate. Sen. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan also questioned the legality of sports event contracts and whether the CFTC will allow them to be listed.
Selig stayed consistent with his approach.
“I think it’s vitally important that the CFTC look to the courts on a lot of these issues,” Selig said. “They’re, of course, being litigated across the country, really, to the extent that any of these event contracts constitute gaming, of course, that’s a question for the courts. But if they’re trading in our markets, if the products are self-certified and the CFTC’s allowing them to trade in the markets, of course, it’s vital that the CFTC ensure that those contracts are not being manipulated, that they’re not readily susceptible to manipulation. It’s a core principle. And of course, if confirmed, that would be something that I would enforce.”
